Merged 2024 Election Thread

[johnny karate]

Everyone who knows anything about polling is aware that polling for party primaries and state party conventions is generally less accurate and less reliable than polling for general elections. The main reason for that is this: The fraction of voters who participate in primaries and party conventions is considerably smaller than the fraction that votes in general elections, which makes it both harder and more critical for pollsters to identify which of a poll's respondents are likely to participate in the primary or state party convention.

What Skeptic Ginger posted accounts for that and notes that even given that consideration, a lot of the polls were a big miss.

But arguing about how polls work and what they mean doesn’t change the fact that Trump badly underperformed.

 

[angrysoba]

If you don't believe me:
The polls were wrong

Very good news then if Trump underperformed his polling and Biden exceeded his.

Happy to hear it.

 

[Crazy Chainsaw]

Remember McConnell proclaiming just after Jan 6 that Trump had to be "held accountable" for that? Then promptly made it clear to his GOP senators to vote "not guilty" in his impeachments. Once more, McConnell proves he puts his party before the country every time. Spineless POS can't even do what's right before riding off into the sunset. Good riddance.

Mitch McConnell is owned by Fossil fuel interests, that started early in his Career as he was backed by Coal and oil companies who wanted lower regulations on the Industry so they could pollute in peace.

Mitch will go which ever hand the check comes from even if that check comes from someone's hand in Texas who got the money in an oil deal with Putin. Tried to tell you Mitch and Moscow are linked though the Anti Globel warming cartels and against the Green New deal, they want to burn baby burn until the world is dead.

Putin, Trump, Mitch, and the Republicons only care about power they don't even care if the planet survives.

This election is about more than just the USA, it's about actually having. A world to live on.

 

[Tero]

Polls polls polls!

The situation we have has not been there before. We never had a Trump before. I think there is a lot of hatred on one hand, but also a lot of disgust with politics in general. Many people have switched to a “no politics” mode in famlily and public situations. If asked to answer a poll, the immediate reaction is to hang up. There is almost no point in their minds, and my, to try to predict this and then to live in some panic state for months. I do that, but the disinterested people just turn it off in their minds. They have lives to live. (I'm retired, chess puzzles and news filled much of my winter time mornings). Also, most people who do vote, realize the elctoral college situation is just unpredictable. Especially when both candidates run about 55% disapproval.

 

[lobosrul5]

Polls polls polls!

The situation we have has not been there before. We never had a Trump before. I think there is a lot of hatred on one hand, but also a lot of disgust with politics in general. Many people have switched to a “no politics” mode in famlily and public situations. If asked to answer a poll, the immediate reaction is to hang up. There is almost no point in their minds, and my, to try to predict this and then to live in some panic state for months. I do that, but the disinterested people just turn it off in their minds. They have lives to live. (I'm retired, chess puzzles and news filled much of my winter time mornings). Also, most people who do vote, realize the elctoral college situation is just unpredictable. Especially when both candidates run about 55% disapproval.

If even 1 in 4 of Haleys supporters doesnt vote for Trump this should be a landslide for Biden. Crossing my fingers.

 

[Tero]

The Republican candidate:
https://www.threads.net/@keithedwards/post/C4N5onZJftF/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

But as far as weird and disliked, Musk is right up there. And Musk would just buy the presidency. If he weren't a foreigner.

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

If even 1 in 4 of Haleys supporters doesnt vote for Trump this should be a landslide for Biden. Crossing my fingers.

Do you think Haley may have received any votes from Democrats in areas that allowed open primaries? According to the results it would appear Haley never had the MAGA vote but did receive support from Democrats in certain areas.

 

[lobosrul5]

Do you think Haley may have received any votes from Democrats in areas that allowed open primaries? According to the results it would appear Haley never had the MAGA vote but did receive support from Democrats in certain areas.

Hmm that is a possibility. VT and VA are open primaries for example.

She also did relatively well in UT which is closed. But politics in UT are unique.

 

[zorro99]

I voted for Haley. I am an independent. I have not yet decided how or whether I will vote come November.

 

[zorro99]

Tonight Biden will have his chance to demonstrate he can put two words together. In fact I understand he can put three or four words together. What a low expectations bar his opponents have set.

Also I hear his opponents set the schedule turning public attention away from Trump’s big victory. What a momentum killer.

 

[johnny karate]

Tonight Biden will have his chance to demonstrate he can put two words together. In fact I understand he can put three or four words together. What a low expectations bar his opponents have set.

Also I hear his opponents set the schedule turning public attention away from Trump’s big victory. What a momentum killer.

Sorry, what was Trump’s “big victory”? And how are we defining “big victory” as it pertains to both Trump and Biden’s performance in the primaries?

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Sorry, what was Trump’s “big victory”? And how are we defining “big victory” as it pertains to both Trump and Biden’s performance in the primaries?

On Super Tuesday, Biden trounced Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson across the board.

Trump defeated Nikki Haley somewhat less resoundingly in all but one state.

Haley won a state, and came closer to Trump in other states than Phillips and Williamson came to Biden. Which means Trump had to overcome a less unsuccessful challenger. Which means Trump's victory was bigger.

HTH

ETA:

I'm joking, of course.

 

[johnny karate]

On Super Tuesday, Biden trounced Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson across the board.

Trump defeated Nikki Haley somewhat less resoundingly in all but one state.

Haley won a state, and came closer to Trump in other states than Phillips and Williamson came to Biden. Which means Trump had to overcome a less unsuccessful challenger. Which means Trump's victory was bigger.

HTH

I see. The guy who had the weaker showing scored a bigger victory than the guy with the stronger showing. Yes, that makes perfect sense.

ETA: Okay, just saw your edit.

 

[autumn1971]

The problem is if Trump wins your likely to see an Insurrection from the left and that could lead to mass violence worse than 2020, because people actually believe with good cause the right is too courpt to save.

In all honesty, that’s not a problem, it’s the solution to a decade-long problem

 

[Hercules56]

In all honesty, that’s not a problem, it’s the solution to a decade-long problem

You calling for violence if Trump wins? Sure looks that way.

 

[lobosrul5]

You calling for violence if Trump wins? Sure looks that way.

I'm not really sure how it would work. The side that wants liberal democracy overthrows the democratically elected president? Then what? The side with most of the guns and widespread support in the military does... nothing? And even if so, then what happens at the next election? The even more pissed off MAGA guys what... don't vote in Trump or a similar candidate this time?

 

[Hercules56]

I'm not really sure how it would work. The side that wants liberal democracy overthrows the democratically elected president? Then what? The side with most of the guns and widespread support in the military does... nothing? And even if so, then what happens at the next election? The even more pissed off MAGA guys what... don't vote in Trump or a similar candidate this time?

If Trump wins fair and square that is that, no need for violence.

 

[lobosrul5]

If Trump wins fair and square that is that, no need for violence.

I wouldn't say "that is that". Its going to be 4 very ugly years where Trump uses his presidential powers for revenge and increasing his power, and with the potential for widespread civil disobedience, maybe even at the State level. But an angry mob of Democrats storming the Whitehouse seems extremely unlikely.

 

[Aridas]

I'm not really sure how it would work. The side that wants liberal democracy overthrows the democratically elected president? Then what? The side with most of the guns and widespread support in the military does... nothing? And even if so, then what happens at the next election? The even more pissed off MAGA guys what... don't vote in Trump or a similar candidate this time?

As it stands, I think that one of the first big questions would be who the goal is to get into power instead of Trump. If it's just removing Trump, the VP would be next in line, and quite frankly, I don't hold out much hope that anyone picked by Trump as VP is all that worthy of trust. That's fairly certain to significantly dampen enthusiasm. If it's a Democrat, instead, who? Biden's fairly certainly not going to accept being installed in such a way and nor would any other worthwhile option among the Democrats be likely to accept such, either. That leaves real problems when it comes to who to rally around.

I wouldn't say "that is that". Its going to be 4 very ugly years where Trump uses his presidential powers for revenge and increasing his power, and with the potential for widespread civil disobedience, maybe even at the State level. But an angry mob of Democrats storming the Whitehouse seems extremely unlikely.

Pretty much. If Trump wins, widespread civil disobedience in response to Trump's openly evil actions is very likely. An actual insurrection is far less so. The Secret Service would likely need to remain on higher alert than usual, though, given how much active animosity and hatred Trump is promising to provoke.

 

[Hercules56]

I wouldn't say "that is that". Its going to be 4 very ugly years where Trump uses his presidential powers for revenge and increasing his power, and with the potential for widespread civil disobedience, maybe even at the State level. But an angry mob of Democrats storming the Whitehouse seems extremely unlikely.

No, it is "that is that" unless you are a traitor and an enemy of the US Constitution who think they have the right to violate the will of the people with violence just cuz the election doesn't go their way.

You don't burn down democracy in order to save it.