Merged 2024 Election Thread

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SCOTUS has decided that gerrymandering is bad, unless it favors Republicans. I guess that makes all gerrymandering, partisan gerrymandering.
 
Is it "gaslighting" the public to try and point out the positives that go along with the negatives?

If unemployment is low and inflation rate is down, that seems worth mentioning even if it doesn't mean everyone's doing great.
 
gnome said:
Is it "gaslighting" the public to try and point out the positives that go along with the negatives?
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No, but...

gnome said:
If unemployment is low and inflation rate is down, that seems worth mentioning even if it doesn't mean everyone's doing great.
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If the people at the bottom half of the wealth ladder are hurting, does it turn them off hearing how great things are when their own circumstances are awful?

If struggling voters keep hearing the economy is strong, what incentive is there to vote Biden? They'd think they were voting for more of the same and just not bother.
 
dirtywick said:
when people talk about the economy being bad, it's the rising housing, healthcare, education, and energy costs and the increasing cost of goods and services coupled with a
noticeable decline in quality
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True. Except in times of economic depression/recession, when haven't prices risen for housing, healthcare, education, energy, goods and services?






 
I heard a poll result yesterday that 49% of Americans believe Unemployment to be at a 20-year worst. It's actually close to a 20-year best.
 
gnome said:
Is it "gaslighting" the public to try and point out the positives that go along with the negatives?

If unemployment is low and inflation rate is down, that seems worth mentioning even if it doesn't mean everyone's doing great.
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It's not but in this case, it feels like it. Inflation hits you in the gut. It's down from last year but prices are still a lot higher than they were from two years ago. When it comes to the economy:

Unemployment is only felt if you are unemployed.
Inflation being down doesn't help, things aren't getting cheaper at best, they are about the same.
Stock prices being up, meh, it helps a lot of average folks, but they can't feel it.
Presidents get more blame and/or credit for the economy than they deserve.

I don't know what Biden can do but telling a bunch of people that the economy is great when they get a gut punch every time they go to the grocery, not the thing they should do. Something like, "we know it feels like **** but ...?"

It doesn't help that they passed a bill called the "inflation reduction act" that clearly wasn't meant to reduce inflation and at best you can find someone that says, "well it only made inflation a little worse....?"
 
angrysoba said:
Well, inflation has been a global issue, not just America, of course. And many countries have seen worse inflation (such as Argentina).

But according to Wikipedia, it was at 1.3%, 4.7%, 8.0% at 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.
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"Americans’ average hourly earnings are 22% higher than before the pandemic, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Though wage increases have been slowing, they’re rising at a faster rate than prices.

That’s good news for consumers, since it means their income is stretching further."

From:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/business/us-economy-whats-happening/index.html

Main complaint is consumer debt.
 
How do you explain debt going up when people's incomes are also going up but spending isn't?

Oh, ya, oops... that article didn't even claim people's incomes are going up. It said "average hourly earnings" are... which is the kind of thing you resort to when you want to pretend people's incomes are going up but they aren't... which is perfectly consistent with debt going up while spending isn't.
 
Delvo said:
How do you explain debt going up when people's incomes are also going up but spending isn't?
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The article says that spending is going up:

One reason consumer spending has held up so well in the face of higher-than-desirable inflation combined with the highest interest rates in over two decades is that consumers aren’t necessarily spending within their means.
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Trump popular among "voters" who do not vote.
The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks.

That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/shaky-foundation-trump-lead-disengaged-114648718.html
 
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Tero said:
The Hill presents polls as news.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4684497-donald-trump-hurdles-to-retaking-white-house-2024/
...but then claims Trump leads using...other hand waving methods.
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Pointing out that Trump leads in every single one of the battlegrounds is not hand waving.

OTOH, the issue with Trump being popular among low-information and low-efficiency voters strikes me as important. Politicos have a word for candidates who rely on inconsistent voters: Losers.
 
Brainster said:
Pointing out that Trump leads in every single one of the battlegrounds is not hand waving.

OTOH, the issue with Trump being popular among low-information and low-efficiency voters strikes me as important. Politicos have a word for candidates who rely on inconsistent voters: Losers.
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There is no reliable data on battleground states. But we do have data on votes in those states. Election 2020. It is very close. A percentage in many cases. It is less than the error in the polls.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
 
Tero said:
There is no reliable data on battleground states. But we do have data on votes in those states. Election 2020. It is very close. A percentage in many cases. It is less than the error in the polls.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
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1. Suggesting that we go back to the votes in 2020 for indications of how people will vote in 2024 doesn't strike me as likely to be better than 2024 polls of those people.

2. The article points out that Trump did better than predicted by the polls in both 2016 and 2020. Which at least indicates his support could be stronger than indicated by the polls today.
 
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