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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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jt512 said:
In words, it's basically 50:50 in every single swing state, and therefore 50:50 for the election.
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I think we'll see young women, not likely voters out perform for Harris the way we did the abortion ballot initiatives in Kansas.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kansas-abortion-vote-results-how-amendment-was-defeated/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23290714/kansas-abortion-referendum-primary-turnout-charts

Trump and the Vance boy trying to play both sides is going to fuel turn out (plus the observed evidence of the Dobbs decision). Abortion isn't like Trump's relationship with Putin, he can't take it both ways.
 
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Craig4 said:
I think we'll see young women, not likely voters out perform for Harris the way we did the abortion ballot initiatives in Kansas.
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For Kamala's first few weeks, when she was behind but gaining, the argument that she was likely to win was that the momentum was going her way. Now it's stopped. It's even reversed in a few places; she was briefly above the margin of error in some swing states where that margin has shrunk now, and she was tied or slightly above in a couple of red states which are back a bit more into the red now.

But, that can change again*, and, in the meantime, there's also a bit of reason to expect that Democrats are a few points undersampled this time.

In surveys of "likely voters", how that's determined is by whether they voted the previous time(s), which obviously means newly registered voters are excluded. There's a built-in contradiction because people are actually more likely to vote the first time they can than second & later times, but that contradiction usually fades into the background because more voters aren't newly registered. This time, new voter registration for Democrats has more than doubled the usual rate (almost tripled in some demographics groups).

*The main way she could change it, instead of just waiting & hoping, would be by putting more distance between herself and Biden. So far, she has not seemed willing to do that.
 
Harris has made herself known. Not much more she can do (apart from bringing Peace to the World and a chicken in every pot).

We are now at the Stage where either side is trying to avoid controversy whilst hoping for a scandal to befall the other campaign.

Harris is a better chance than Trump to win that competition.
 
JoeMorgue said:
"The media is acting like we filmed a commercial at a gravesite." - JD Vance, immediately after literally filming a commercial at a gravesite.
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Stacyhs said:
Once again, Trump reveals what a POS he his. As far as I am aware, he never spoke to the families during the preceding 3 years
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Donald Trump didn't do anything on the previous anniversaries of the Afghanistan withdrawal. It's not as if the families are non-partisan; some of them spoke at the Republican National Convention. They are participants in Trump's campaign.

There is reporting that the Trump campaign tried to arrange an event with the Army, who refused. Then they enlisted House Speak Mike Johnson to intervene and strong-arm the Army into allowing the Trump campaign to hold the event, but with the clear understanding that there would be no photography. This may be why the cemetery officials were at hand—they may have suspected that the campaign would not keep its word.

I've seen third-hand reporting suggesting Fox was telling people the original plan was to stage the graveside event and the wreath-laying event and tell people it was a public commemoration (i.e., Army planned) that Trump had reverently attended but that Kamala Harris had arrogantly blown off. That all went south when the altercation happened and the true posture of the event became public knowledge.

I don't know how reliable that is. But it does better explain our governor's behavior. (He released a fundraising campaign email with photos of him next to Trump at the cemetery.) If these current and former leaders attend a public event that they can insinuate as having been organized by the Army rather than by the campaign, then the photos and video are fair game in the same way we see official coverage of other prominent people's visits to the cemetery. What happened makes more sense if you consider that these campaign media materials were preplanned and ready to roll as soon as the photos were available. Then when news of the altercation broke, the cover story was blown and the campaigns had to do damage control instead.

Governor Cox blamed it on his campaign releasing the email without his authorization, and assuring everyone that it hadn't been planned as a campaign event. If Fox is correct, then that is almost plausible: it had been planned not to look like a campaign event. And Trump has infamously blamed it variously on the families themselves or on the Biden administration for allegedly setting him up.
 
That the race is so close, not to mention so many Republicans working to put the fix in, is stomach churning. Sickening. But you can’t deny reality.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
Hello Time Traveler from just before the 2016 election. Please enjoy your stay in our future.
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Stacyhs said:
I hope you're right but 2016 taught me not to be so sure. Once bitten, twice shy.
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The major reason 2024 is nothing like 2016 is Hillary Clinton. I said a million times before the election that she would fail,because she was so wildly unpopular.

But, but, but... so is Harris you can add.

Big difference being, everyone knew Hillary, and her history as a cuck, prior to 2016, while nobody actually knew anything about Kamala.

People are learning about her fast, and they like what they see. Even better, she is connecting with youth vote in a way Hillary didn't, and Trump is incapable of.

She is an absolute shoe-in, but it's good people are worried, because you'll keep putting in the effort and not letting the tsunami stop building.
 
Tero said:
Not going to work. The low information voters were lost to Harris or else lost interest in the election. The third party candidates will do nothing this time around. People who show up to vote for some state level referendum may bother to vote them.

It will be 1-2% of the vote, not more.
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I think you're wrong. The abortion issue is huge in the states where it is on the ballot. Polls are showing support to reverse Florida's 6 week ban around 65 to 35. And that issue will lead to higher turnout there. And those voters won't forget why they are there. It will be good for a 3 to 8 percent bump for the Dems.
 
acbytesla said:
I think you're wrong. The abortion issue is huge in the states where it is on the ballot. Polls are showing support to reverse Florida's 6 week ban around 65 to 35. And that issue will lead to higher turnout there. And those voters won't forget why they are there. It will be good for a 3 to 8 percent bump for the Dems.
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I guess I was trying to say the same, sort of. The abortion issues are huge, and they may even be the main issue some people bother to vote. But some are libertarian and still can't make themselves vote for a Democrat. Those are the ones voting third party.
 
The Atheist said:
The major reason 2024 is nothing like 2016 is Hillary Clinton. I said a million times before the election that she would fail,because she was so wildly unpopular.

But, but, but... so is Harris you can add.

Big difference being, everyone knew Hillary, and her history as a cuck, prior to 2016, while nobody actually knew anything about Kamala.

People are learning about her fast, and they like what they see. Even better, she is connecting with youth vote in a way Hillary didn't, and Trump is incapable of.

She is an absolute shoe-in, but it's good people are worried, because you'll keep putting in the effort and not letting the tsunami stop building.
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I'd suggest taking off the rose-colored glasses and putting on some reality shades.
 
Tero said:
I guess I was trying to say the same, sort of. The abortion issues are huge, and they may even be the main issue some people bother to vote. But some are libertarian and still can't make themselves vote for a Democrat. Those are the ones voting third party.
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Libertarians make up a tiny portion of the electorate. But it's not like there isn't just as many or more Libertarian principles to vote for Democrats in this election as there are to vote for the Grand Old Fascist Party.

My next door neighbor is a hard core Libertarian. Even was the party's nominee for US Senate in my state a few election cycles back. And he wants to destroy MAGA more than I do.
 
The Atheist said:
The major reason 2024 is nothing like 2016 is Hillary Clinton. I said a million times before the election that she would fail, because she was so wildly unpopular...
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What exactly did you say? That Hillary would win the Popular Vote but lose in the Electoral College by virtue of less than 100,000 votes in three states?

What horse is going to win the 8th race at Monmouth today? (Come on Tavin!)
 
Two more reasons this is not 2016 are, of course that after eight years of Dump, everyone know what he's like, and how we all know this time that he can win. Remember how many people didn't bother voting, or who cast protest votes for the GOP or independent candidates in 2016, because they were sure Hillary had already won and a fascist clown couldn't possibly get that many votes? We won't see that this time.

I mean, obviously we all know Harris might lose. After eight years of Dump, though, I just don't see it happening. Even Biden managed to win in 2020, and that was with people openly worrying that he was too old and frail to be President.
 
So Project 2025 just got a search function. Go to 25and.me and type in whatever cause is near and dear to your heart, and it'll tell you exactly how the Republicans plan to ruin it.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Two more reasons this is not 2016 are, of course that after eight years of Dump, everyone know what he's like, and how we all know this time that he can win. Remember how many people didn't bother voting, or who cast protest votes for the GOP or independent candidates in 2016, because they were sure Hillary had already won and a fascist clown couldn't possibly get that many votes? We won't see that this time.

I mean, obviously we all know Harris might lose. After eight years of Dump, though, I just don't see it happening. Even Biden managed to win in 2020, and that was with people openly worrying that he was too old and frail to be President.
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And yet, there are many still undecided voters...enough to determine the outcome.
 
The Atheist said:
The major reason 2024 is nothing like 2016 is Hillary Clinton. I said a million times before the election that she would fail,because she was so wildly unpopular.
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Did you?

It seems to me, judging by this thread you started, just before the 2016 election night, that you were thinking about eating crow...

The Atheist said:
Election Night Dinner - Fresh Crow!
I'm just going to carve this up and eat the first piece while it's fresh.

There was me, taunting Trump voters, because he could not possibly win...
538's odds having gone from 93% to 67% in about 3 days makes me think there's going to be an awfully sad world come Wednesday.
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The Atheist said:
That's exactly why I've got the pie ready - to remind me to never, ever to start mocking before the count has been finalised.

I am going to be dancing down Queen Street naked while singing Rule Britannia if that piece of orange puke wins. Crow seems mild by comparison.
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Did you dance naked down Queen Street singing Rule Britania when that piece of orange puke won?

That would be an unusual thing to do for someone who...*checks notes*..."said a million times before the election that [Hillary Clinton] would fail,because she was so wildly unpopular."

Maybe you said this on election night itself then, having earlier claimed Trump would lose throughout the rest of the 2016 election campaign.

Anyway, let's move on to 2020, and see how your predictions fared then...

Oh, you wrote an open letter to Michelle Obama in which you declared...

The Atheist said:
you are probably the only person who can “save” the planet. Were Alexadria Ocasio-Cortez a decade older, it might well have fallen on her shoulders, but in 2019, there is only you. None of the current Democratic candidates are or will be able to attract the kind of support needed to rid your country of a would-be demagogue.
Only you have the power, the prestige and the implacable desire for equality to satisfy the American people, win the presidency and institute a policy of change for the better that will benefit the entire world.
...
As we’d say in New Zealand, be a good bastard and have a go.
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And yet despite her not being a good bastard and having a go, Biden beat Trump. This is something you explicitly said could not happen.

Also, for good measure, you were insistent that Russia would never invade Ukraine and continued saying so even as they rolled tanks into the Donbas. "Oh they look like they are on holiday!" was the crazily dismissive way in which you pooh-poohed anyone claiming a full scale operation was underway.

So... don't get me wrong, but I will not be putting any money at all on your predictions. I am sure you will understand why.
 
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