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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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JoeMorgue said:
We've been counting on Trump eventually being given enough rope to hang himself for a little too long at this point.

He's not going to Mister Bean into cutting his own political throat as much as we would like it and as much as that would happen in any sanely run universe.
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Really? He lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3 million, 7 million in 2020. Certainly seems like the reason is Trump and not his opposition.
 
acbytesla said:
Really? He lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3 million, 7 million in 2020. Certainly seems like the reason is Trump and not his opposition.
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He won 2016 by literally a few hundred votes in one county each in three states and lost 2020 by only a marginally larger amount. And that was BEFORE the Supreme Court wrote him a blank check to do whatever he wants and before he got to do a Coup practice run without suffering any consequences.

The margin of error for 2024 still makes him a very, very, very viable threat.

"But da popular vo---" I don't care. We aren't electing the President by popular vote in 2024, we're still using the EC.
 
JoeMorgue said:
He won 2016 by literally a few hundred votes in one county each in three states and lost 2020 by only a marginally larger amount. And that was BEFORE the Supreme Court wrote him a blank check to do whatever he wants and before he got to do a Coup practice run without suffering any consequences.

The margin of error for 2024 still makes him a very, very, very viable threat.

"But da popular vo---" I don't care. We aren't electing the President by popular vote in 2024, we're still using the EC.
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All I'm saying is quit pretending that Trump is some masterful politician and hasn't been damaging himself.
 
Solitaire said:
Alright, maybe not before 2028. Trump has a 96% chance of running in 2028, and an 80% chance of running in 2032. But when the 2036 election rolls around he'll be 90 years old and maybe then he'll think about retiring.





It sounds like you can't see, rather than you can see. Hm.

But look at this way, Trump ran as a Democrat for many years, before switching, and he now says crazy things.

Think of RFK like fresh peeps candy. Just toss him in the back window of the car for a few years and he'll age up into something wonderful.
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Trump never "ran" for any office before the 2016 election. He's also never belonged to any party because he believed in their policies. He's registered in whatever party he thought benefited him personally at the time. That is his overriding reason for doing everything and anything he does.

Trump registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987; since that time, he has changed his party affiliation five times. In 1999, he changed his party affiliation to the Independence Party of New York. In August 2001, Trump changed his party affiliation to Democratic. In September 2009, he changed his party affiliation back to the Republican Party. In December 2011, Trump changed to "no party affiliation" (independent). In April 2012, he again returned to the Republican Party.[4]
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Wikipedia

He was 41 in 1987, but I can find no info on his political affiliations, if any, for the 20 years prior to that. He may not even have voted during those years.
 
Personal experiences of visits to Arlington are not relevant.

Call Arlington and tell them you're bringing a few dozen people, including families, to mark an anniversary of the deaths of several service members in Area 60 (where the most recent are). Don't even mention that you're with a campaign or what the anniversary is.

They will put you on the calendar, assign staff to your gathering, and let you know exactly what you can and cannot do while there.
 
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JoeMorgue said:
He won 2016 by literally a few hundred votes in one county each in three states and lost 2020 by only a marginally larger amount. And that was BEFORE the Supreme Court wrote him a blank check to do whatever he wants and before he got to do a Coup practice run without suffering any consequences.

The margin of error for 2024 still makes him a very, very, very viable threat.

"But da popular vo---" I don't care. We aren't electing the President by popular vote in 2024, we're still using the EC.
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All true. Still, in a scenario where Harris preliminarily wins EC, triggering the concerted anti-democracy effort that quite obviously is in the works, I think the larger the popular vote margin, the harder it would be for SCOTUS to pull shenanigans.
 
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In https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore the SC got involved.
Why?

...allow a candidate to request a county to conduct a manual recount, and Gore requested manual recounts in four Florida counties—Volusia, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade—that generally vote Democratic and would be expected to find more votes for Gore. Gore did not request any recounts in counties that generally vote Republican. The four counties granted the request and began manual recounts. But Florida law also required all counties to certify their election returns to the Florida secretary of state within seven days of the election,[13] and several of the counties conducting manual recounts did not believe they could meet this deadline.
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... Harris determined that none justified an extension of the deadline. She further announced that after she received the certified returns of the overseas absentee ballots from each county, she would certify the results of the presidential election on November 18.[8] But on November 17, the Florida Supreme Court enjoined Harris from certifying the election while it heard appeals from the various cases in progress.[8] On November 21, it allowed continuation of the manual recounts and delayed certification until November 26.
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On December 9, ruling in response to an emergency request from Bush, the U.S. Supreme Court stayed the recount.
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Justice Stevens: On questions whose resolution is committed at least in large measure to another branch of the Federal Government, we have construed our own jurisdiction narrowly and exercised it cautiously. On federal constitutional questions that were not fairly presented to the court whose judgment is being reviewed, we have prudently declined to express an opinion. The majority has acted unwisely. … [A] stay should not be granted unless an applicant makes a substantial showing of a likelihood of irreparable harm. In this case, petitioners have failed to carry that heavy burden. Counting every legally cast vote cannot constitute irreparable harm.
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From America’s Finest News Source*

Trump Calls Out Arlington National Cemetery For Hazard-Filled Fairways

WASHINGTON—Bemoaning the terrible course conditions he encountered while visiting the military burial site, Donald Trump called out Arlington National Cemetery on Thursday for its hazard-filled fairways. “I’ve played at amazing golf courses all over the world—like Augusta, Pinehurst, and Pebble Beach—and let me tell you, Arlington National Cemetery was the worst 18 holes I’ve ever played,” said the 45th president of the United States, adding that service was terrible at the 639-acre memorial, from the rude and overbearing guards, to the messy gravestones littered everywhere, to the distracting spectators who kept kneeling down and praying. “Immediately after I teed off, I had no idea where the holes were, my golf cart started sucking up wreaths, and my ball got caught in this huge trap called the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Plus, it was impossible to order a lemonade or a BLT. The waitress I called over just started sobbing.” At press time, Trump added that this was exactly why he preferred playing at Trump golf courses, where there was only one grave and it belonged to his late ex-wife.
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[imgw=800]https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/76066d3e451a2c6d.jpg[/imgw]

* The Onion
 
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Trafalgar group polling.
According to The New York Times, there is almost no explanation of the Trafalgar Group's methodology: "the methods page on Trafalgar's website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how."[1] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[9]
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Before the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of C−.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

Bit of news: Harris down two points in PA and 1 point in WI
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trafalgar-battleground-election/2024/08/31/id/1178613/

Very similar to Rasmussen numbers
 
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Apathia said:
Of course the tragedy is that him remarking that the Arlington National Cemetery would be a great green for golf (said seriously) is well within possibility.
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Of course it is. Any golfer can see the potential. There is enough land for 4ea 18 hole golf courses.
As a golfer, I can imagine having the thought crossing my mind. As an American President or political candidate, I can't imagine voicing it.
 
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