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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

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Gulliver Foyle said:
Do you think that the repugs are going to let enough people in Florida to vote, bringing it back into play?

The state is ground zero for their current electoral stratgy of romving the vote from anybody who's not a white chis-het man.
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The Election is being fought on multiple levels - and the one Trump and most Republicans are most engaged in the War of Perception that Trump is just way more popular everywhere than Harris could ever be, polls be damned.
Not letting that perception stand even in places where it will not result in Electoral Gains is essential, especially if Harris plans to run again in 2028.
Not going into Red States is short-sighted and unnecessary, as there is enough money in the coffers and local activists could do a lot with not very much.

At the very least, making Republicans looks like they have to defend their Home Turf is a powerful image to create.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
The Election is being fought on multiple levels - and the one Trump and most Republicans are most engaged in the War of Perception that Trump is just way more popular everywhere than Harris could ever be, polls be damned.
Not letting that perception stand even in places where it will not result in Electoral Gains is essential, especially if Harris plans to run again in 2028.
Not going into Red States is short-sighted and unnecessary, as there is enough money in the coffers and local activists could do a lot with not very much.

At the very least, making Republicans looks like they have to defend their Home Turf is a powerful imagine to create.
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Exactly. Especially if Trump is playing to home crowds
 
a_unique_person said:
I was reading that they are starting to think it could be in play. Maybe they just don't have the money to spare.
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Yeah I'd be tempted to think that except the "Legalize Pot" amendment is getting a goddamn media blitz, which fits into my narrative that there's a huge uncomfortable truth that a "I want to get high legally and I'm pretty much a one issue voter on that" is a way bigger demographic then anyone is comfortable admitting.

Like real uncomfortable talk. If the GOP, and I'm talking the current MAGA GOP and everything it stands for, threw its weight 100% behind legal pot and really made it a tentpole part of its campaign and was able to sell themselves to voters as "The Party of Legal Marijuana" and make it work while still keeping all their vile and regressive policies, Democrats would lose a lot of voters. A LOT of voters. And a lot of the biggest performative "I hate MAGA" types would throw the minorities and rights they claim (and even honestly DO on some level) to worry about under the bus if it meant they could stay stoned on their couch all day.
 
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They seem to be doing something right. Newsweek reported yesterday:
The Florida Republican Party said polling suggesting former president Donald Trump could lose Florida in 2024 was "extremely alarming." Evan Power, the chairman of the Florida GOP, sent out a fundraising email in response to Newsweek's August 13 report on a poll that suggested Florida was not a guarantee for Trump with the headline: "Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Florida, Poll Suggests." Newsweek news link
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Meanwhile, trump sent what the media is calling "an unhinged middle-of-the-night rant" against Pennsylvania's "Jewish Governor."

[imgW=400]https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/6459466c723d7c251a.jpg[/imgW]

Forbes news link
 
Andy_Ross said:
Trump lies and claims Kamala Harris met with Putin three days before he invaded Ukraine. Harris and Putin have never met.

Video in link

https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1826362402876915741?t=wYyl0iPMVINSFmSafWUmtQ&s=19
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If a politicians mouth is moving...

Meanwhile Kamala is eating Donald dust.

Ladbrokes

Trump 5 to 6
Harris 1 to 1.

Megan Kelly says her husband Douglas only watches the betting shops.
I only watch the betting shops because nothing resembles skin in a game.
 
Posting the daily ladbrokes odds on this is quite tedious. Maybe do it once a week or fortnight if you must. Repeatedly describing the variance as 'eating dust' is even more tedious.
 
Who is Megan Kelly and why do we care waht they think?

And again, betting odds aren't to predict results, they are to entice morons to bet money.
 
newyorkguy said:
They seem to be doing something right. Newsweek reported yesterday:


Meanwhile, trump sent what the media is calling "an unhinged middle-of-the-night rant" against Pennsylvania's "Jewish Governor."

[imgw=400]https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/6459466c723d7c251a.jpg[/imgw]

Forbes news link
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Trump has got a real problem with trying to think logically. He has been telling everyone that Shapiro didn't get the VP job because he's Jewish. Trump also hates all Democrats. His middle of the night rant gets the two messages mixed up in the worst possible way. No wonder he is so lethargic at the recent rallies. He's getting older and not getting any real sleep.
 
a_unique_person said:
Trump has got a real problem with trying to think logically. He has been telling everyone that Shapiro didn't get the VP job because he's Jewish. Trump also hates all Democrats. His middle of the night rant gets the two messages mixed up in the worst possible way. No wonder he is so lethargic at the recent rallies. He's getting older and not getting any real sleep.
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Decades of using a lead-based bronzer probably doesn't help either.
 
Donal said:
Who is Megan Kelly and why do we care waht they think?

And again, betting odds aren't to predict results, they are to entice morons to bet money.
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I think he repeatedly brings them up because it's the only platform that shows Trump beating Harris anymore. It's a feel good measure. Trump is absolutely losing his mind right now and they need to feel better.
 
a_unique_person said:
Trump has got a real problem with trying to think logically. He has been telling everyone that Shapiro didn't get the VP job because he's Jewish. Trump also hates all Democrats. His middle of the night rant gets the two messages mixed up in the worst possible way. No wonder he is so lethargic at the recent rallies. He's getting older and not getting any real sleep.
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It also looks like he's settled on "Comrade" for the nickname. That's weak sauce.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
The Election is being fought on multiple levels - and the one Trump and most Republicans are most engaged in the War of Perception that Trump is just way more popular everywhere than Harris could ever be, polls be damned.
Not letting that perception stand even in places where it will not result in Electoral Gains is essential, especially if Harris plans to run again in 2028.
Not going into Red States is short-sighted and unnecessary, as there is enough money in the coffers and local activists could do a lot with not very much.
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Just to play devil's advocate...

The democrats have been extremely successful in campaign fundraising since Harris became the candidate. But, as full as the coffers are, the money isn't unlimited. (And neither is the candidate's time.)

I remember in the 2016 election, Clinton visited some areas that were traditionally conservative, and I wondered why she would spend time there. (My assumption was that she was overconfident and wanted to "run up the score" against an unpopular Republican candidate.)

Visiting florida and other areas that the republicans have held for the past few election cycles (or buying campaign ads there) might be a good strategy (possibly winning a few marginal states, and/or causing the Trump campaign to panic). Or, it might be a waste of resources. Its hard to tell which it will be until after the votes have been counted and you can judge things in hindsight.
 
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Segnosaur said:
Just to play devil's advocate...

The democrats have been extremely successful in campaign fundraising since Harris became the candidate. But, as full as the coffers are, the money isn't unlimited. (And neither is the candidate's time.)

I remember in the 2016 election, Clinton visited some areas that were traditionally conservative, and I wondered why she would spend time there. (My assumption was that she was overconfident and wanted to "run up the score" against an unpopular Republican candidate.)

Visiting florida and other areas that the republicans have held for the past few election cycles (or buying campaign ads there) might be a good strategy (possibly winning a few marginal states, and/or causing the Trump campaign to panic). Or, it might be a waste of resources. Its hard to tell which it will be until after the votes have been counted and you can judge things in hindsight.
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Here's the thing.

(And obviously this is an observation/educated guess. Politics in complicated and fluid, everything done is a potential risk of wasted effort that would have given better returns if spent somewhere else that, as you say, often can only be judged after the fact.)

For the most part young, liberal voters can be reached through internet and TV ads. The whole (frankly stupid but it is what it is) "I need to sit down in a diner and performatively order the local food and talk to someone who runs a tractor repair company" shtick seems to impress the Right more.
 
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