Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
Brainster said:
Keep in mind that Harris needs to win by the popular vote by at least 3 percentage points in order to overcome the structural advantage the Republicans have in the Electoral College. Hillary won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the EC by 14 points.

As for the tsunami, she's had about as good a three weeks as can be imagined and is still only up slightly. It's great that she's up, but there are a lot of weeks left and she is bound to have some bad ones along the way. I would expect her to do very well in polling coming out of the convention, but remember, Michael Dukakis came out of his convention up 17 points.
Click to expand...

Now factor in Trump's daily unhinged rants and meltdowns.
 
Mike! said:
Now factor in Trump's daily unhinged rants and meltdowns.
Click to expand...

This, And it will only get worse with Trump.
I honestly think he though he had it in the bad, and then things changed, and he does not know how to cope.
 
Brainster said:
Keep in mind that Harris needs to win by the popular vote by at least 3 percentage points in order to overcome the structural advantage the Republicans have in the Electoral College. Hillary won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the EC by 14 points.
Click to expand...
The latest I've seen for Kamala were 4+ nationwide, including leads of various sizes in every swing state, 4 in the biggest three of those, plus ties in a couple of previously red states.
 
Orphia Nay said:
No, she's ahead in the polls.

Nate Silver: Harris leads by 2.8%
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

538: Harris leads by 2.7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

RealClearPolitics: Harris leads by 0.4%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Click to expand...

That's general polls. And Biden needed 10% advantage to win by a hair.

check https://www.270towin.com .. check different data sources in bottom right. Polls, analysis, betting markets, you can compare it all. Uncertainty is big, and there is certainly a shift. But so far, nothing like clear win.
 
Mike! said:
Now factor in Trump's daily unhinged rants and meltdowns.
Click to expand...
I'm tempted to say he's had daily unhinged rants and meltdowns for eight years and his cultists still worship him, but he is getting worse and worse, and losing support and influence.

Then again, my impression is conservatives are voting for the party more than Drumpf, at this point. They know trumpism will live on without him, perhaps except if they suffer a resounding defeat in November. On the other hand, people seem really opposed to Project 2025.

Dr.Sid said:
I'll dance when it's won. Not a second earlier. 2016 celebrations hours before elections were pathetic and embarrassing, everybody should learn from that.
Click to expand...
This. I believe Harris will win, but this isn't over until it's over.
 
Brainster said:
Keep in mind that Harris needs to win by the popular vote by at least 3 percentage points in order to overcome the structural advantage the Republicans have in the Electoral College. Hillary won the popular vote by 2 points and lost the EC by 14 points.
Click to expand...

My marker is sitting on +8. I'll be interested to see how close I am.
 
[Deleted post which showed up above the post it was responding to.]
 
Last edited:
jt512 said:
2–2.5%, according to Nate Silver, which is why forecast models now give her the edge over Trump.
Click to expand...

An extremely slim edge; ask a poker player how confident they feel about a hand that is about 52% to win. And Trump outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020. The situation is a lot better for the Democrats than it was before Biden dropped out, but the idea that this race is over is way premature.
 
[Deleted duplicate post. The forum software is in rare form today.]
 
Last edited:
Brainster said:
An extremely slim edge; ask a poker player how confident they feel about a hand that is about 52% to win.
Click to expand...


He would feel about 52% confident. Was it a trick question?

That answer notwithstanding, I think you misinterpreted my post.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
I'm tempted to say he's had daily unhinged rants and meltdowns for eight years and his cultists still worship him, but he is getting worse and worse, and losing support and influence.

Then again, my impression is conservatives are voting for the party more than Drumpf, at this point. They know trumpism will live on without him, perhaps except if they suffer a resounding defeat in November. On the other hand, people seem really opposed to Project 2025.


This. I believe Harris will win, but this isn't over until it's over.
Click to expand...
Trump has caught the common dictators disease of making very long, very boring speeches all about themselves. He sells himself as being exciting then does the old bait and switch.
 
It takes time for the polls to move. This election is nowhere near over. Still, it is shocking just how far the polls have moved since Biden stepped away. If they continue to move at this rate Trump will be toast in 45 days. That's still a big if. But I remain optimistic.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I'm not sure that's true. The grifter in chief pulls in millions from poor suckers.
Click to expand...
That's true. And I don't know what's in his coffers.

But I do know there's a maxim that money drives polls and polls drive money.

The worse polls get, the harder it is for any candidate to raise money. And I doubt Trump is immune to that reality. Trump needs to slow the momentum towards Harris. Because there's a tipping point where supporters will go from in for a penny, in for a pound, to worrying that they are throwing good money after bad.
 
This is not a good sign for the Trump campaign:

Newsweek
Donald Trump's campaign is said to be concerned about private polling in Ohio...One concern for the campaign was two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by GOP pollsters, which have not been seen by Newsweek, reportedly showing Trump receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Harris in the state.

(Note that even if polls show some weakness for the republicans, it does not automatically mean they will lose. Polling at the state level often uses smaller sample sizes which makes them less accurate. Still, I can see it being a cause for concern.)

Ohio used to be a swing state before it started going solidly republican. Even if the republicans are likely to keep Ohio, the fact that polls show weakness means that the party will have to spend valuable campaign money to keep from falling behind (so less money to spend on other states.)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom