2020 Democratic Candidates Tracker

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Skeptic Ginger said:
Why would voting for younger candidates amount to turning the reins over? It's still your vote.

I found Biden to have a lot of the attitudes my dad had. I'm happy to report they are still outdated opinions. Both Biden and Pelosi made me cringe when they told younger legislators that their experiences meant they were superior to those naive kids. (Paraphrased, of course.)

The intelligent way to have handled it would have been to recognize the experience and knowledge of the younger legislators and then just say you believed differently. To say I have more experience than you is not a good form of communication.

Harris said the right thing when she said to Biden, I don't believe you are a racist, but...
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Huh? Are you suggesting that voting for a younger candidate is not voting for a younger candidate?
 
Mumbles said:
That'd be great, and I hope you're correct. I just don't think this is over. I may be overly pessimistic, granted, but, we're in the backlash to Obama being elected. The GOP is dashing towards neo-Nazi status, and yet people will vote for them.

You've put together a lot of good links. They may sink Biden.They *should* sink him. Except, he's still connected to Obama.

What I'm saying is, wait for the polls. Move based on them.
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A lot of my PoC friends say every time Biden references being Obama's VP, all they hear is "I'm not racist, I have a black friend!"
 
Mumbles said:
That'd be great, and I hope you're correct. I just don't think this is over. I may be overly pessimistic, granted, but, we're in the backlash to Obama being elected. The GOP is dashing towards neo-Nazi status, and yet people will vote for them.

You've put together a lot of good links. They may sink Biden.They *should* sink him. Except, he's still connected to Obama.

What I'm saying is, wait for the polls. Move based on them.
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Harris has gotten a pretty good boost from the debate. She was on Colbert's show last night. Everyone is bringing up her smack down of Biden. Last week the news media dwelled on Biden's cozying up to segregationists. Biden managed to contain that scandal with his "Give me a break, it wasn't racist."

This is already out in the WA Po, The Nation, and Democracy Now. Given Harris' smack down getting attention, there is no way this won't spread by tonight or tomorrow. And this isn't something Biden can say people are misinterpreting. It's worse, this clearly contradicts his claim he wasn't against bussing per se.

Add to that the very racist comments about mix races in the classroom and if you bus the white kids to "inferior" black schools you'll be damaging them. :jaw-dropp Not even a word about 'let's spend money on poor schools not busses'. We need a word for 'racist tone deafness'.
 
Tsukasa Buddha said:
I'd wager Biden survives, only because I don't see a rational reason for why so many supported to begin with. Carly Fiorina beat Trump in the Republican debates for 2016, but popularity is popularity.
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Define 'survives'. He's not going to drop out of the race.

I predict: he will not be the front runner by next week.
 
Mumbles said:
My top pick for now are Sanders or Warren, Harris, and either Booker or Castro. I'm just saying folks should settle down for a bit. Yes, I'd like to see an LGBT president. I think this guy's going to flame out.
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Mmm. I'm not sure that I see him flaming out so much as bowing out gracefully. I don't see him winning, of course, and always considered it a long shot. A pleasant long shot, but still a longshot. With that said... I think that it's great that he's received the reception that he has, though, and that running like he is has been beneficial to the Party and to the country overall in multiple ways. LGBT acceptance and highlighting the religious left, especially.
 
Mumbles said:
I'm not at all sure of this. It's correct to say that "black" culture is really southern culture, but in truth, *every* US culture is figuring out how to deal with LGBTQ folk.
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I'm not talking about southern culture, I'm talking about black culture. In California, black voters were 70% in favor of Proposition 8 (a state-level ban on gay marriage). Religious voters were only around 60%. Seems to me like they figured out how to deal with them just fine.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
I'm not talking about southern culture, I'm talking about black culture. In California, black voters were 70% in favor of Proposition 8 (a state-level ban on gay marriage). Religious voters were only around 60%. Seems to me like they figured out how to deal with them just fine.
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If I'm reading these statistics correctly, it seems like religion correlates with people being more tolerant.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Define 'survives'. He's not going to drop out of the race.

I predict: he will not be the front runner by next week.
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His lead was massive. In 538's debate polling he lost ~6% after the first debate that he wasn't even in, and ~4% after the second, and after that he was still polling nearly twice as high as second place.
 
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Tsukasa Buddha said:
His lead was massive. In 538's debate polling he lost ~6% after the first debate that he wasn't even in, and ~4% after the second, and after that he was still polling nearly twice as high as second place.
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Ok, now track Jeb Bush starting from June/July 2015.

The electorate does not want anyone designated, chosen, or anointed and they have no patience for anyone who thinks its 'their turn.'

ETA: I've also made clear before that speaking for myself, I'm sick of all the Senators and former cabinet officials. Partly due to us getting our butts handed to us at the state level, we have no bench of executives to speak of.
 
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Delphic Oracle said:
Ok, now track Jeb Bush starting from June/July 2015.
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For historical comparisons:

Democratic Primary 2020

Republican Primary 2016
Democratic Primary 2016

Republican Primary 2012

Republican Primary 2008
Democratic Primary 2008

The Republican 2016 primary doesn't really match the current set up. Bush was up by generally less than 2 points, and temporarily peaked 6 points above the next person. Bush was in the 15% range, while Biden is in the 30-40% range. Additionally, I don't see anyone coalescing around one candidate this early like people did for Trump in 2016.

The races where the person with the big initial lead lost were Republican and Democratic primaries of 2008, and there the front runners kept their leads until early election year.

It could be like the Republican 2012 primary. The front runner was a boring guy that no one really loved, so there were a number of spikes of alternate candidates.

The electorate does not want anyone designated, chosen, or anointed and they have no patience for anyone who thinks its 'their turn.'
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Biden is polling very well with the electorate, and Hillary won the last primary that was perceived in those terms.
 
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TragicMonkey said:
I predict: Biden will try to recover by staging some hopelessly tone-deaf outreach to minority voters, and it will backfire spectacularly.
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Welp, just read Biden trotted out his gay waiter remark, again. My prediction failed because I naively assumed Granpa Joe would confine his shooting to just one of his own feet at a time.
 
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