Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Ulf Nereng said:
There may be a good number of undiagnosed deaths, too. Old person dies of respiratory problems? Nothing unusual about that. They ought to test every death that looks even vaguely suspicious, but they don't AFAIK.
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I think you'll find a few places are doing that retrospectively right now.

Planigale said:
"Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days."
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What a pointless comment by WHO.

Unreported cases will clearly be asymptomatic, or nearly so, and they're not counted, because they're....

Unreported!

dann said:
Most Scandinavian cases so far have been traced back to Italy where many people go skiing in February.
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Italy's the super spreader!

When you take into account the Brit who infected people at the ski resort in France, there were clearly people picking it up in Italy, but the cases went unrecognised because the symptoms weren't severe.

Once it got out of the resorts - and young & fit skiers - and into the general population, it started knocking over the oldies and got discovered, is how it seems to have gone down.
 
The Atheist said:
I think you'll find a few places are doing that retrospectively right now.

What a pointless comment by WHO.

Unreported cases will clearly be asymptomatic, or nearly so, and they're not counted, because they're....

Unreported!
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That's not how I read it, but I'll admit its badly worded.

It seems to be saying the vast majority of cases that eventually test positive show symptoms early, and the window under which those cases are asymptomatic is pretty small, not weeks but 2 days.

Bear in mind also that there are thousands of cases across many regions that are suspected even though they don't show symptoms, due to quarantine, close contact with someone infected etc. and hence closely monitored and tested on a daily basis. Thus there is likely some justification for that as a conclusion.

And more importantly, contrary to what we thought, asymptomatic cases are not major drivers of transmission. I for one thought those types were blithely swanning about for weeks on end, passing it to all and sundry, yet apparently this is not the case.

That seems to be new information.

Edited: They don't spell out whether these cases are not major drivers overall because they are asymptomatic for a relatively short period of time compared to those showing symptoms, or because there is some difference in the level of contagion, e.g. asymptomatics aren't sneezing over people.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Didn't I post a link on this twice now? Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces


Here are a few more, very useful, the tested surfaces in the second one included teflon, PVC, ceramic, glass, silicon rubber, & stainless steel

March 2020: Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents

Researchgate: Human Coronavirus 229E Remains Infectious on Common Touch Surface Materials (open access)
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Huh :confused:
I wasn't disagreeing with you, just citing a source (WHO), different to the three in your list, the second of which I cited in post #2320.
 
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One residual problem I can foresee -- in the rush to allow people to work from home, a lot of security steps are going to be missed or skipped, making companies much more vulnerable to hacking.
 
xjx389 said:
I’m just trying to think it through.
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And you have absolutely no evidence for anything you say after this. I think I'll stick with the opinion of the experts working from evidence.
 
Belz... said:
Yeah but apparently it's losing ground to the older, less dangerous form, from what I understand.
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The paper provides no evidence for more aggressive disease.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Got our first one.


First case of coronavirus detected in SA
“The patient is a 38-year-old male who travelled to Italy with his wife. They were part of a group of 10 people and they arrived back in SA on March 1.
“The patient consulted a private general practitioner on March 3, with symptoms of fever, headache, malaise, a sore throat and a cough. The practice nurse took swabs and delivered it to the lab,” he said.
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RecoveringYuppy said:
And you have absolutely no evidence for anything you say after this. I think I'll stick with the opinion of the experts working from evidence.
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Well, duh; of course you should do that. I’m not presenting my thinking as scientific fact. I’m basing my reasoning on the facts as we know them currently.

If I am anywhere close to correct, then the number of actual infections is going to be way higher than reported -all those milder cases that people think is just a bad cold. All those people coughing and sneezing in my office this week -we are busier than we have been in a long time. Since we haven’t seen the symptoms that would make our docs suspect anything weird, we aren’t sending anyone for testing. It’s just, from our standpoint, a bad URI season. So I think it’s very possible that it’s actually already out there in the wider community and that’s why this season is so bad. When testing is more accessible to clinics like us, I’ll bet this is confirmed.

That’s all I’m saying and maybe I’m wrong. But if I’m close to right, perhaps we should be concerned for vulnerable populations but we don’t need to panic. What we need to do is be extremely diligent about the basic precautions.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
Wonder if there is a path to civil or criminal liability here? This is an unusual case in that there is a lot of work being done to track the spread of the disease. It may be possible to identify reckless actors with a pretty high level of certainty, especially in these early days where the number of cases is low.

I am assuming that this would be a firing offense for any kind of medical organization.
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Here's an interesting example.


Federal health officials planned to drop off some cruise ship passengers at a shopping mall after their release from a two-week quarantine at a Texas air base, one of several reasons the city of San Antonio declared a public health emergency over the new coronavirus, a city spokeswoman said Tuesday.

The city filed a lawsuit Monday to halt the plan after a woman was mistakenly released from quarantine at a health care facility over the weekend despite testing positive. She had visited the North Star Mall — the same one where the some of those released from Lackland Air Force Base were to be dropped off — before the mistake was discovered, prompting the mall to shut down for deep cleaning.
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Two different things, but in combination they don't bode well for the sort of precautions we can expect from our government.

One- They have mistakenly released people who were still infected and, presumably, contagious.

Two- They think dumping the ones they release at malls is a good idea.
 
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UK Gov:

Department of Health and Social Care
✔
@DHSCgovuk
Replying to @DHSCgovuk

As of today, due to the number of new cases, we will no longer be tweeting information on the location of each new case.

Instead, this information will be released centrally in a consolidated format online, once a week. We are working on this now and plan to share on Friday.
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portlandatheist said:
Here's a great resource, made by a highschool student from Mercer Island (near Seattle)
story:
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/high-...-serve-leading-place-coronavirus-information/
actual website:
https://ncov2019.live/data
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Thanks. Bookmarked.

That is really a very good site. Much more comprehensive and well laid out than any of the purportedly 'official' sites I've seen so far.

Obviously our Powers-That-Be need to hire more seventeen year olds.

Here's a direct link to the interactive map which is being built by the same site.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewe...ll=47.920312760149955,-125.43463166209415&z=7

It seems to stay updated pretty quickly.

Thread is running slow - continuation thread can be found here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=342493
Posted By: Darat
 
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