Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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I've just read a speculation that the higher death rate in older people, is because older people have been exposed to a coronavirus before.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...get-coronavirus-children-appear-safe/12013842

"In adults, they are reacting quite violently because perhaps they have seen a previous coronavirus infection and that's set up the immune system to react inappropriately and excessively," Professor Booy said.
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(Professor Robert Booy from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance)

This does not bode well for people who get it twice...
 
The Atheist said:
...

25 January:

Four cases identified in Australia.

On 29 February, Australia has 25 cases.
...
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So far, all of the Australian cases have been from people who have very carefully brought it into the country from overseas.

That may be about to change:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-29/coronavirus-queensland-gold-coast-beauty-salon-iran/12013580

The state's chief health officer, Jeannette Young, said the woman did facial treatments on up to 40 clients, in sessions lasting less than 15 minutes.

"She saw a number of clients each for brief interactions, so we believe the risk is incredibly low," Dr Young said.
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If the risk is "incredibly low" from sitting next to a person for 15 minutes, who is touching your face, one is forced to wonder what the rating is for kissing?

On that scale would it be rated as:

"Global Thermo-nuclear Warfare?"
 
In an offline discussion from earlier today, someone asked this question (geographic context is the US): “How do we know that none of the people who died of the flu had Covid-19? It’s not like all deaths suspected of being from the flu were tested, right?”

Yeah, AFAIK, only a minority of such are tested. I assume there’s a protocol for this sort of thing ... how else to determine what strains there are, and how deadly each is? How else to root evolution models in ground truth (necessary to predict what strains to prepare for next season)?

Does any regular to this thread know the facts?
 
The Atheist said:
As this outbreak is now over 2 months old, I'm trying to use a bit of hindsight, along with a sceptical appraisal of where this bloody virus is actually headed, because I have a suspicion using the day-by-day numbers are giving an incorrect impression. The spread of cases unconnected to previous case or China is the clue, for me.

13 January:

Thailand reports first case of covid-19.

On 29 February they have 42 cases.

22 January:

USA finds first case.

On 29 February, USA has 68 cases identified, most of which are ex-China.

22 January:



22 January:

First case hits the Philippines

On 29 February, Philippines have had zero more cases.

23 January:



25 January:

Four cases identified in Australia.

On 29 February, Australia has 25 cases.

31 January:




Pandemics are discovered when the serious cases show up. Prior to that, nobody's looking, so the infection can spread by mild cases long before those serious cases are seen, and we know for certain covid-19 not only produces mild cases, but also completely asymptomatic ones.

Imperial College London has always maintained actual numbers are at least ten times the officially identified cases. I suggested at the start that it could be as high as 100 times more, and the way cases with no contacts in China are now springing up gives a strong likelihood of under-reporting. This was noted all the way back on 17 January, when people started applying maths to the situation.

Based on a r0 of 2.6, we would be seeing something in the order of 1,000,000 cases right now.

And maybe we have that, but haven't counted 90% of them because those people aren't sick enough to bother going to the doctor.

I'm going to say that's where we actually are, and it's going to be impossible to control or even limit the spread now it has clear traction.

I think we're over-estimating the deadliness by under-estimating the spread and there seems to be no other way the virus could be spreading internally in cases with no connection to past cases, other than wrong input.

It's still going to be a nightmare for health systems, but I think attempts to slow the spread are futile and we're stuck with this as an extra human pathogen until someone strikes a vaccine. (which may not work if the virus mutates)
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R0 is not a fixed number but depends on multiple factors and the most critical one currently is social distancing. It's clear that R0 has dropped below 1 in China for at least the last 2 weeks from the rather strong measures they took. Especially in Wuhan. But it is above 1 in areas less controlled though below the 2-3 that it was before the epidemic was recognized. China is still largely shutdown with many people staying away from work let alone other groups. Energy use has not recovered so expect effects from that to continue and have severe economic consequences.

Outside of China, R0 is running above 1 but hard to say. As you point out, in the early stages it's hard to detect and isn't even looked for in most countries.

Agree it's not going to be stopped but circulate at some level. The rate of growth (R0) will depend on the measures each country takes as well as cultural and possibly genetic variables that are currently unknown. The problem is that social distancing exacts serious economic consequences and can't be continued at an extreme level. Getting R0 below 1 gradually reduces the numbers infected but as soon as things return to more or less normal and it goes back over 1 or 2 then things get bad again. Quickly. A lot of unknowns still. The knowns are that that there will be and has been really big economic consequences that will have to be dealt with.
 
The daily WHO reports, at least for “other than China”, have a column “Days since last reported case”.

Seems close to a bimodal distribution: either zero or few (e.g. Malaysia 1), or >10 (e.g. India 25). With an apparent correlation (not perfect!): most of the former have lots of cases (cumulatively); the latter few.

Possible nasty surprises in store, from the latter group?
 
JeanTate said:
The daily WHO reports, at least for “other than China”, have a column “Days since last reported case”.

Seems close to a bimodal distribution: either zero or few (e.g. Malaysia 1), or >10 (e.g. India 25). With an apparent correlation (not perfect!): most of the former have lots of cases (cumulatively); the latter few.

Possible nasty surprises in store, from the latter group?
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Very, very likely.
 
marting said:
R0 is not a fixed number but depends on multiple factors and the most critical one currently is social distancing.
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I'm more looking at the casualty rate than the infection rate, because the infection rate isn't adding up.

All completely speculative, though.

marting said:
It's clear that R0 has dropped below 1 in China for at least the last 2 weeks from the rather strong measures they took.
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Haha!

Yeah, putting 100 million people under house arrest will do that.

I'm completely ignoring China now that we have reliable statistics available from Italy, other parts of Europe, South Korea and Singapore, among others.

marting said:
The knowns are that that there will be and has been really big economic consequences that will have to be dealt with.
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Yeah, I'm going to go to the economics thread next!

JeanTate said:
The daily WHO reports, at least for “other than China”, have a column “Days since last reported case”.

Seems close to a bimodal distribution: either zero or few (e.g. Malaysia 1), or >10 (e.g. India 25). With an apparent correlation (not perfect!): most of the former have lots of cases (cumulatively); the latter few.

Possible nasty surprises in store, from the latter group?
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Yes - I've said India is a problem right from the start - I do not believe they have had no cases since 31 January.

Again repeating former comments, when you have 500,000 people dying of pneumonia a year anyway, who would even notice the covid-19 ones?

I'd bet my winnings on TVIX that India is exporting covid-19 around the world as we type.
 
Dr.Sid said:
So do we have first celebrity ? I mean if you don't count Iranian secretary of Health ministry.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/pope-francis-cancels-third-day-of-events-amid-mysterious-illness/
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What more proof do you need that the Evangelicals are worshipping the true God? First it was that cult in South Korea, then it was Shia Islam, now Catholicism.

Of course, if he gets better, maybe it will prove the Catholics were right and he was saved by a miracle, as foretold by the prophet Trump.
 
angrysoba said:
What more proof do you need that the Evangelicals are worshipping the true God? First it was that cult in South Korea, then it was Shia Islam, now Catholicism.

Of course, if he gets better, maybe it will prove the Catholics were right and he was saved by a miracle, as foretold by the prophet Trump.
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Btw. who do Japanese pray to for health ?
 
Dr.Sid said:
Btw. who do Japanese pray to for health ?
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The Shinto Shrine at New Year and some Buddhist temples when they get to “dangerous” ages such as 42, because four in Japanese is “shi” and two is “ni” and “shini” sounds like “die”.
 
angrysoba said:
The Shinto Shrine at New Year and some Buddhist temples when they get to “dangerous” ages such as 42, because four in Japanese is “shi” and two is “ni” and “shini” sounds like “die”.
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But what deity ? I know about Budha of health, but in Shinto ? It seems there isn't any specific for that. I've seen some people clearly wishing for health at Amaterasu shrine in Ise, I mean there was group of people who didn't look too healthy, and they were making these moves with their hands like spreading the blessing over their bodies .. never seen anybody doing that at other shrines. People just clap and pray in silence, motionless.
 
Dr.Sid said:
But what deity ? I know about Budha of health, but in Shinto ? It seems there isn't any specific for that. I've seen some people clearly wishing for health at Amaterasu shrine in Ise, I mean there was group of people who didn't look too healthy, and they were making these moves with their hands like spreading the blessing over their bodies .. never seen anybody doing that at other shrines. People just clap and pray in silence, motionless.
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I don't think things get that specific in Japan. If you ask most Japanese people about the intricacies of the theology of Shinto, they won't have a clue. You just go to the shrine, buy a fortune slip, throw a coin in the box, ring the bell, clap your hands, put your left leg in, your left leg out, do the Hokey Kokey, and that's what it's all about.
 
The Atheist said:
Further confirmation that kids aren't being bothered by the virus, but are carrying & shedding it: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/...ars-wuhan-coronavirus-could-spread-undetected

I'd say we have a guaranteed pandemic on our hands.
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<several members made comments like this> said:
That comment says far more about you, and your need to believe in a lethal pandemic, than the virus in question.
:rolleyes:
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The Atheist said:
<snip>
Meanwhile, expect this graph to go completely exponential from here on:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

I think my prediction of more than tripling this week will be very, very light by next Sunday.
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This URL and the graph that shows the number of cases outside China is getting rather scary. It suggests that the Atheist is an optometrist and is owed an apology from anyone who said otherwise. Or to be specific, the numbers were going up by 10% per day but since about 22/2/20 have been going up by 15% per day or more. At this rate we will have over 10,000 cases outside China by 4/3/2020 and 100,000 by 20/3/20. Sometime in July the number of new cases outside China will stop growing because everyone who can be infected has been infected.

If I am wrong it is because I am an optimist.
 
angrysoba said:
There is concern that the reason why South Korea has such high numbers is simply a reflection of the fact that they have had more extensive testing than a lot of other places.
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novaphile said:
These two things do not necessarily follow...

On the local news tonight, it was revealed that Pathology SA (the Government Pathology lab) is currently processing 250 tests for COVID-19 per day, and ramping up to be able to perform at a much higher rate.

So far we've had three cases, one from the Diamond Princess, and two who flew directly here from China.
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Sorry, this was written a while back, and I had meant to respond. I don't mean that every country around the world would have higher numbers if tested more, but I meant in relation to places where the virus has already been discovered.

I was probably most thinking about the fact that the numbers in Japan (particularly big cities like Osaka) are still pretty low, and we almost certainly will see much higher numbers if testing is performed more extensively.

There is a good article about that here.

The shutdown has largely diverted attention from a controversy that had taken on viral proportions: Has Japan’s government, desperate to carry on with hosting the Olympics, deliberately kept the numbers of infected down by discouraging testing?

It’s a question that was on the front page of at least one popular evening tabloid, Nikkan Gendai, on Thursday afternoon, the day the prime minister issued his schools shut-down guidance. The headline read: “Coverup of potentially 5000 people with coronavirus?”

Since last Saturday, news outlets starting with TBS Broadcasting have put out reports of people in Japan seeking to be tested for the coronavirus who were turned away at clinics and hospitals – ostensibly because they didn’t meet the stringent requirements for getting tested. Some were also told that there wasn’t the capacity to test them.

The Association of Doctors in Tokyo (Tokyotoishikai) protested the insufficient testing vocally at a press conference Thursday, an unusual step for an organization that is normally considered subservient to the political party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The chairman of the organization said there were numerous cases of doctors deciding that patients needed to be tested for the virus only to have public health care centers, which are authorized to do the tests, refuse to perform the analysis. When doctors would ask the reasons for refusal, most were told, “We are giving priority to seriously ill patients.”

Prior to the association press conference, on Wednesday the 26th, opposition party lawmakers grilled Katsunobu Kato, the minister of health, labor and welfare, on the surprisingly low number of tests being conducted for the virus in Japan.

Kato stated that, between the 18th and 24th, Japan had only tested 6,300 people. During the same period, according to South Korea’s Ministry Of Health and Welfare, there were over 24,000 Koreans tested.

While the number of patients tested in Korea grew every day, the figures show the numbers of tests given in Japan mysteriously going down from the peak of 1594 on the 21st to 541 on the 24th.
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IANAE, but...I also have to wonder if the lack of testing has led to a more counter-productive result of making this virus seem worse than it is by inflating the mortality rate.

I get that the WHO have downplayed the idea that there are large numbers of mild or asymptomatic people with the disease in China, but given that there is supposed to be 100 million people locked down in quarantine and only 70,000 or so cases in China, isn't it a bit odd that so many people repatriated on charter flights had the coronavirus?
 
angrysoba said:
Sorry, this was written a while back, and I had meant to respond. I don't mean that every country around the world would have higher numbers if tested more, but I meant in relation to places where the virus has already been discovered.

I was probably most thinking about the fact that the numbers in Japan (particularly big cities like Osaka) are still pretty low, and we almost certainly will see much higher numbers if testing is performed more extensively.

There is a good article about that here.



IANAE, but...I also have to wonder if the lack of testing has led to a more counter-productive result of making this virus seem worse than it is by inflating the mortality rate.

I get that the WHO have downplayed the idea that there are large numbers of mild or asymptomatic people with the disease in China, but given that there is supposed to be 100 million people locked down in quarantine and only 70,000 or so cases in China, isn't it a bit odd that so many people repatriated on charter flights had the coronavirus?
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Everybody in the flight was tested. People with symptoms and without it. People without symptoms are otherwise usually not tested. So that's the difference. Nobody really knows how many light cases there is. And how many of those can spread it.
 
CNN Breaking: Ireland reports first case.
Brazil reports second case.
Northern California reports fourth case.
Hong Kong reports 95th case.
Mexico reports fourth case.
Illinois reports third case.
 
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