Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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The Atheist said:
This is also not good news: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
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While all those reasons for the false negatives are certainly possible, I'd put these at the top of the list:
Alternatively, there could be a problem with the way the tests are being conducted.

There are throat swabs and then there are throat swabs.

"Is it a dangle or a good rub?" asks Dr MacDermott.

And if the samples are not correctly stored and handled, the test may not work.
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People think with a throat swab anyone can easily do it. It's not easy to get a good specimen. And if people aren't specifically trained in this procedure, I can see how the specimens are not handled properly after they are collected.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
That's not helpful. I know that.



I am asking why you aren't equating an aged immune system with "weaker"?
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I do not think it’s a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. It’s coined original antigenic sin. It’s too complicated to just say it’s weak.


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Skeptic Ginger said:
There could be a number of cases in India and poorer countries in Africa that have simply been attributed to flu and other common infections. I wonder what the threshold of pneumonia admissions to hospitals and deaths from pneumonia has to be before any alarm bells go off?
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That's exactly what I've been on about - India in particular.

When your government ministries and ministers promote homeopathy and drinking cow urine, I have zero faith in their systems.
 
Capsid said:
I do not think it’s a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. It’s coined original antigenic sin. It’s too complicated to just say it’s weak.
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I'm not saying this doesn't happen. There have been a few seasons when the flu which circulates reverses the norm and the elderly do much better than younger people.

I have heard all sorts of hypotheses over the years and past acquired immunity usually tops the list.

But that is unusual, most years the age reversal is not the case.

Currently CoVID19 is worse in the elderly. So past acquired immunity isn't helping much.

I don't have an issue with you preferring not to use 'weaken' but here's another thing to consider: The elderly have aged hearts and lungs and that is surely contributing to morbidity and mortality here.
 
Capsid said:
I do not think it’s a good term. The immune system becomes experienced with age but may not respond so well to new pathogens. But how new is new? Old people may have been exposed to many corona viruses enough to protect them from a new one. It’s coined original antigenic sin. It’s too complicated to just say it’s weak.


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The problem is that a lot of damage from flu and similar viral infections is collateral damage from the immune system. In humans flu viruses do not occur outside of the respiratory system; but people with severe flu get encephalitis (brain inflammation), myocarditis (heart inflammation), and myositis (muscle inflammation). All of these are due to an 'overactive' immune response. It may well be that much of the pneumonia in covid 19 is due to collateral damage from the immune system. So there is a critical balance you need enough of an immune response to eradicate the virus but not so much as to damage the body. Dengue haemorrhage fever the most severe form of dengue infection occurs with a second infection, when the host has a strong immune response, a second infection is more dangerous than a first infection when there is no effective immune response.
 
And.... an infectious disease expert from Japan interviewed on NHK Newsline believes Japan needs to move into stage 2 of this pandemic. Stage 2 is "Accelerating"

The reason is the evidence of how many people have slipped through the quarantine nets because they were likely infectious before developing symptoms.

A taxi driver in Okinawa contracted the virus from transporting passengers from the ill-fated cruise ship is one reason why:
NAHA -- An Okinawan taxi driver who drove at least one passenger from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship earlier in February has tested positive for the new coronavirus, the Okinawa Prefectural Government announced on Feb. 14.

Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki had told a news conference earlier that there was a suspected case of infection in the southernmost prefecture, and that the person involved was believed to have had contact with a passenger on the Diamond Princess. The taxi driver was identified as a woman in her 60s. The woman had received a medical checkup after showing symptoms of suspected pneumonia.

According to the Okinawa Prefectural Government, there is a possibility that roughly 2,600 passengers disembarked from the Diamond Princess when the ship called at Naha Port in the prefecture on Feb. 1. Approximately 200 people including tourist bus drivers who have had contact with those passengers have been through medical checkups.
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While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
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I think there's no doubt at all we're going to see a wave break in the next few days, with hundreds or more cases around the world. The long lead time on infection, plus the potential that 90% or more of infections probably aren't serious enough for people to take action seems to mean there's a bit of a critical mass to achieve for it to start being noticed in wider quantities.
 
The NYT has a new article today
One thing mentioned is that a Fiat factory in Serbia shut down because they do not have the parts they need from China. I'm surprised there haven't been more market jitters as this thing could definitely cause an economic slowdown. The potential of this being pandemic seems more and more likely with each passing day.
 
I bumped into that kind of thing two weeks ago.

A local store had advertised fleecy hooded tops...

When I went to buy one they said:

"The stock hasn't arrived, we've contacted our supplier and they said that nothing had come out of China for weeks."

A side effect of just-in-time is that a glitch in one place can shut down a lot of other places.
 
Are the American doomsday preppers going into action yet? Will we see a run on ammunition purchases? Will armed militias protect small towns and other enclaves?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
And.... an infectious disease expert from Japan interviewed on NHK Newsline believes Japan needs to move into stage 2 of this pandemic. Stage 2 is "Accelerating"

The reason is the evidence of how many people have slipped through the quarantine nets because they were likely infectious before developing symptoms.

A taxi driver in Okinawa contracted the virus from transporting passengers from the ill-fated cruise ship is one reason why:
While 2,600 disembarked, it's unlikely many of them were yet contagious. But it is likely the cascade of infections was started.
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Flights between Australia and China have been severely reduced. I wonder if flights between Japan and Australia will be reduced for the same reason?

We know of one case in Japan, there could be several more. Each one of these people would then spread it to others. It would require a massive task to isolate everyone who has had contact with infected people. Even harder if the test for the virus produces false negative results.
 
I'm reminded of the line from 'The Towering Inferno'

"It's out of control, and it's coming your way."

I would expect preppers (apologies if that's not your preferred term for yourselves) to be in a bit of a quandary at the moment.

This is clearly the kind of thing that some people have prepared for.

But... When do they seek shelter?

You can't wait until you're infected, that's clearly too late.

But. if you go early, there's a risk that you consume all your supplies for nothing, or even worse, consume all your supplies just before things get really bad.

A fire, or flood, or declaration of war... those things are have clear points/events. But a virus that's sneaking* around the world, that's diffuse and hard to predict.


*I know it's not meaningful to attribute any kind of purpose to a virus, but it conveys the idea...
 
Chinese restaurants are taking a hit in America and other countries. Many are reporting that business is down 50%.

Chinatowns in the big American cities are now in trouble and the virus hasn't really spread here.
 
In Australia the education sector is taking a big hit, as is the tourism sector.

There are a lot of articles saying that 100,000 Chinese students have not been able to return here for the current semester.
 
portlandatheist said:
I'm surprised there haven't been more market jitters as this thing could definitely cause an economic slowdown.
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I've been saying for the past two weeks that the virus causing an economic recession seems certain to me and I'm not sure why the sharemarkets aren't seeing it - they're normally the first place to panic.

Tourism is taking a huge hit worldwide, and that has a flow-on effect, even before the component shortage starts to hit.

NZ lumber companies have been laying off staff for the past week, because orders have dried up and Aussie coal will hit the same problem.

Dr.Sid said:
Some stories from Japan. It certainly feels out of control.

http://www.newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/126384.php
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The part of that story that's the most concerning is this bit:

Meanwhile, 11 infected people from the ship are in a serious condition.
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Given the majority of the ship cases have been found in the past few days, I'd be surprised if any of those were classed as serious already, so it's going to be 11 out of only about 50 cases total, which is a very ugly percentage.

I hope hospitals are making better plans around the world than sharemarkets appear to be.
 
I haven't heard any speculation about the possibility of intentional bioterrorism yet. But I can see how it could easily be arranged.
 
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