Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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Right now, I am quite worried about the impact of the epidemic on Russia: all the same reasons for locals to pretend there is no problem, but without the will or ability of the central government to isolate the problem.
 
Local news brought article from BBC, but I couldn't find it on BBC. So no English version, sorry.

https://www.lidovky.cz/svet/jak-kor...-99-pacientu.A200131_140704_ln_zahranici_tesa

The article describes symptoms, cause of death, and other new information, based on cases in China.

From study set of 99 cases, 11 died, 57 is still being treated. The first person who died, died after 11 days from being hospitalized, and that case is considered fast, poor lung condition due to smoking being the factor. So the mortality is on par with SARS, and death number lags significantly behind the infected.

They say that most of the infected are men between 56-67, sadly no more detail. 52 of 99 suffered from other health issues (hearth disease, stroke in the past, diabetes), smoking seems to be strong factor too.

As for the number of infected, the exponential growth slowed down a bit. This is table for 1 day factor based on 7 day average, together with number of cases in China. 1.42 is still insane though.

23.1.2020 830 1,51648437449667
24.1.2020 1287 1,54230245915943
25.1.2020 1975 1,49023422342696
26.1.2020 2744 1,45580330971039
27.1.2020 4545 1,48088088847644
28.1.2020 5974 1,45154452865662
29.1.2020 7711 1,45042865334268
30.1.2020 9692 1,42061525287631
 
Sorry no links ...

SCMP (South China Morning Post, an English-language HK newspaper) has an article on fury in China over a paper (papers?) reporting that the dangers of the Wuhan coronavirus were known well before the public alerts were issued. I'm not clear about the exact timeline, especially re when the early data on the illness became available to the researchers. However, it seemed clear that the nature of the illness was, in some sense, known to at least some public officials (in Wuhan alone? in some bodies in Beijing too?) well before the alarm was sounded.

NPR article reported on something apparently rather common: villages erecting road blocks, preventing people from entering or leaving. Yes, many are surely illegal, and there's an element of stable doors being bolted after the horse has gone (and what to do about people already in the villages who come down with symptoms after the road blocks have gone up). This is in addition to the various official bans on travel. But it all may help to slow down the spread.

Surely the biggest concern is if the Wuhan coronavirus spreads to many countries with weak public health systems ... it would then likely become endemic there, and nigh on impossible to stop it spreading worldwide, right? A "new flu" perhaps.
 
JeanTate said:
Surely the biggest concern is if the Wuhan coronavirus spreads to many countries with weak public health systems ... it would then likely become endemic there, and nigh on impossible to stop it spreading worldwide, right? A "new flu" perhaps.
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This is why the WHO called a PHEIC.
 
I note people saying this, and wonder if this is a form of Y2k denial.

i.e. SARS only killed 900 people, because of a co-ordinated world-wide response to stop it.
 
rjh01 said:
The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.
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It might not require the snake to eat the bat. The snake might become infected by exposure to bat saliva, or urine or possibly guano. The same thing could be true for other possible vector animals. Eating an infected bat might not be a necessary thing.
 
William Parcher said:
It might not require the snake to eat the bat. The snake might become infected by exposure to bat saliva, or urine or possibly guano. The same thing could be true for other possible vector animals. Eating an infected bat might not be a necessary thing.
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I've seen documentary footage of snakes and bats living in the same cave (snakes probably eating bats).

Under those circumstances, the snakes would be crawling over bat feces 24 hours per day.

All that's missing in that scenario is someone catching the snakes to sell at market.
 
rjh01 said:
The snake eats the bat that has the virus. The virus survives in the snake. The snake is then killed and the blood drained and drank by a human without being cooked. The virus thinks it is back in a bat, but one that does not know how to deal with the virus. So the human falls sick. Even better (for the virus, not me) the virus can spread to another human.
Click to expand...

The thing about this hypothesis, much as it is possible, is that the first cases have now been traced to people who did not go to the Wuhan market.

It's more likely a few cases were passed around before the outbreak took off.

We’re still not sure where the Wuhan coronavirus really came from
But outside research into the illness suggests that the disease may not have come from the market after all—rather, it may have come into the market. Speaking to Science, Georgetown University infectious disease specialist Daniel Lucey noted that since the virus seems to have an incubation period of up to 14 days and the first reported case emerged on Dec 1, it’s possible the initial human infection took place in November. And since the virus presents only cold-like symptoms in many individuals, Patient Zero—whoever they are—could have spread it to others long before health officials knew what to look for. That means it could have infected humans before even making it to the market under scrutiny.

In an interview published by the Infectious Disease Society of America’s global health blog, Lucey called for scientists to look beyond the Huanan Seafood Market and test animals and humans involved in the “supply chain of infected animals.” Animal-to-person transmission of the virus could have occurred “in one or more multiple markets, or restaurants, or farms, or with wild animals, legal or illegal trade,” he said.
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novaphile said:
I've seen documentary footage of snakes and bats living in the same cave (snakes probably eating bats).

Under those circumstances, the snakes would be crawling over bat feces 24 hours per day.

All that's missing in that scenario is someone catching the snakes to sell at market.
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"Mass Hysteria!!!"
 
Dr.Sid said:
... From study set of 99 cases, ...
They say that most of the infected are men between 56-67, sadly no more detail. 52 of 99 suffered from other health issues (hearth disease, stroke in the past, diabetes), smoking seems to be strong factor too.

...
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Are many women in China smokers? If not, that could explain the preponderance of men getting severe illness.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
The thing about this hypothesis, much as it is possible, is that the first cases have now been traced to people who did not go to the Wuhan market.
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Those people may have been exposed to snake or bat collectors. If your husband or cousin or friend is a snake collector you don't have to go to the market to become infected.
 
A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that the first infections occurred in early-mid November, November 9th it says with 95% credible interval (confidence interval?).
 
Venom said:
A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that the first infections occurred in early-mid November, November 9th it says with 95% credible interval (confidence interval?).
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I'm not sure but I think that 95% thing is related to the "genetic clock" thing. The virus has mutated 5% since November 9th. On November 9th the virus had 0% mutations.

I could be totally wrong.
 
William Parcher said:
Those people may have been exposed to snake or bat collectors. If your husband or cousin or friend is a snake collector you don't have to go to the market to become infected.
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There's no question this virus jumped from animal to people. And jumping from one animal species to another as an intermediary before jumping to humans is very common.

It could also be that the first people infected, infected others at the market, or infected animals at the market that then infected more people.

I was just pointing out the market is no longer thought to be where patient zero acquired the infection.
 
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