Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[The Atheist]

Unfortunately, the current level of social distancing is unsustainable, so that death rate is going to go up again as rules are relaxed. I think it's inevitable.

That's the point I've been making since the first non-Chinese lockdown started.

What happens next?

The hammer & dance theory is all very well, but I'm not sure it's viable.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

For all those who tried to use the preparations in NY as "proof." This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that making makeshift hospital capacity in parks wasn't proof of a pandemic any more than putting out sandbags is proof there's a storm a' brewing. I was derided and looked at as a fool, yet here we are, they don't even need the excess capacity.

It sure made for good television though!:

But another important indicator, the growth of the number of virus patients in hospitals, has slowed so sharply that it has taken the health authorities by surprise. In March, three public-health groups issued projections for the state’s need for hospital beds for virus patients. They showed a range of 55,000 to 136,000 beds.

As of Friday, Mr. Cuomo said, there were 18,569 virus patients in hospitals, a number that has increased less than 3 percent over the past two days.

“The actual curve is much, much lower than any of them projected,” Mr. Cuomo said.

The anticipated need for hospital space drove the state’s frantic effort to expand hospital capacity, which included turning the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a giant makeshift hospital ward, with the military’s help, and erecting a field hospital in Central Park.

Maybe people should stop assuming that just because someone sees something differently it doesn't make them a fool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.amp.html

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

True, true. But your bet goes through the end of 2020, so don't start gloating too soon.


What I think the majority opinion among people whose opinion appears in the press is, is that the reason for the lowering of the estimates is the success of social distancing. Unfortunately, the current level of social distancing is unsustainable, so that death rate is going to go up again as rules are relaxed. I think it's inevitable.

The only thing that could prevent it would be a massive testing regimen, far above anything the President is working on right now, and he's the only one that can make it happen.

Yet I've been told time and again that the social distancing was factored jnto the models/scenarios. Funny how it's whatever saves face for them.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

That's the point I've been making since the first non-Chinese lockdown started.

What happens next?

The hammer & dance theory is all very well, but I'm not sure it's viable.

If a country is able to reduce it's infection rate to where it can implement an effective test and contact trace program, can it resume most activity with a limited increase in the infection rate? (Not that I'm confident that the Trump administration would be able - or even willing - to implement such a program in the US.)

 

[chrispy]

I'm not following your numbers - says here you had 8 on 16 March, so 90 right now isn't bad at all. You haven't quite flattened the curve yet, but on the other hand, it's not going up, either, so pretty promising, I'd think.

So, after having only 47 cases 4 days ago and 95 yesterday, we have now added 35 cases today. Again, this is with VERY limited testing, so we are on the upswing and not a flattening of the curve. This could be ugly, but I hope not. My town is very remote, but remote locations in other parts of the world have shown cases, too. Who knows? Time will tell and all we can do is follow instructions and common sense.

ETA: I walked by a memorial for a dead villager yesterday and there were at least 45-50 people in a driveway and all in close proximity. Cops did nothing.

 

[marting]

If a country is able to reduce it's infection rate to where it can implement an effective test and contact trace program, can it resume most activity with a limited increase in the infection rate? (Not that I'm confident that the Trump administration would be able - or even willing - to implement such a program in the US.)

Of course. My current estimate is 50k deaths through 5/1/20 and an additional 5-15k deaths through the end of 2020.

I expect back to work in early May but no large gatherings, sports events, Disneyland, etc. and limited, if any restaurant re-openings through 2020. Most schools to re-open in the fall. It will be regional with relaxations/restrictions based on much more extensive testing with under 1 day results and I think that will be the case by 6/1/20.

And I think masks will be widely used. Especially in the workplaces that re-open.

Where I differ from Doghouse is that absent the social distancing measures, there would be 1M+ deaths in the USA.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Of course. My current estimate is 50k deaths through 5/1/20 and an additional 5-15k deaths through the end of 2020.

I expect back to work in early May but no large gatherings, sports events, Disneyland, etc. and limited, if any restaurant re-openings through 2020. Most schools to re-open in the fall. It will be regional with relaxations/restrictions based on much more extensive testing with under 1 day results and I think that will be the case by 6/1/20.

And I think masks will be widely used. Especially in the workplaces that re-open.

Where I differ from Doghouse is that absent the social distancing measures, there would be 1M+ deaths in the USA.

I respect your views and wish there were some way to prove whether or not your extreme (to me) belief in the social distancing measures was warranted. Let's keep an eye on Sweden for that, assuming they stay the course.

 

[novaphile]

I respect your views and wish there were some way to prove whether or not your extreme (to me) belief in the social distancing measures was warranted. Let's keep an eye on Sweden for that, assuming they stay the course.

Others predicted this, and it's sad to see it here.

If these steps ARE NOT taken the following will occur.

The steps are taken to prevent the outcome.

Conspiracy theorists: "Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

A couple of us here even used the example of the Herculean efforts that were taken around the world to avoid the Y2k bugs, only to be greeted by:

"Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

So my thanks to the millions of people around the world that are doing everything they can to prevent this catastrophe from continuing.

 

[Elaedith]

Blood testing in one German town shows only 14% are immune.

 

[marting]

I respect your views and wish there were some way to prove whether or not your extreme (to me) belief in the social distancing measures was warranted. Let's keep an eye on Sweden for that, assuming they stay the course.

You might take a look at this:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

In any case things will become clearer re the impacted of social distancing in a month or two.

Probably the first indications will be the results of serological tests that roughly determine the remaining population still vulnerable. There is considerable speculation, without much basis IMO, that a large percentage has already been exposed or is otherwise not susceptible to CORVID-19. I believe this may be the case to a limited degree but that the choral case in Wash. and the Diamond Princess puts limits on it and provide little significant evidence that there is existing immunity. So while there is some possibility that absent the social distancing measures deaths might have been under 1M, I consider it unlikely.

There may also be pharmaceuticals that shorten the impact and allow further relaxation of social distancing measures. That would be nice.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Others predicted this, and it's sad to see it here.

If these steps ARE NOT taken the following will occur.

The steps are taken to prevent the outcome.

Conspiracy theorists: "Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

A couple of us here even used the example of the Herculean efforts that were taken around the world to avoid the Y2k bugs, only to be greeted by:

"Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

So my thanks to the millions of people around the world that are doing everything they can to prevent this catastrophe from continuing.

Oh please. It must be fun knocking strawmen down. I made sure to get firm clarification that the claims of massive death were ASSUMING the social distancing. So get out of here with that nonsense. And get out of here with your bogus claims of "conspiracy theory." Show me a single post where I insinuated anything even remotely resembling such a thing.

 

[Belz...]

For all those who tried to use the preparations in NY as "proof." This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that making makeshift hospital capacity in parks wasn't proof of a pandemic any more than putting out sandbags is proof there's a storm a' brewing. I was derided and looked at as a fool, yet here we are, they don't even need the excess capacity.

It sure made for good television though!:



Maybe people should stop assuming that just because someone sees something differently it doesn't make them a fool.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.amp.html

I don't understand what your thought process is here. You do understand that Covid-19 will be with us for quite a while, yes? It might even become endemic.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Blood testing in one German town shows only 14% are immune.

14% is actually good.

But they also say they had 2% of confirmed cases. That's quite a big number. If the whole Germany had rate like that, they would have 1.6 million confirmed cases. They clear do not have this much, so I guess there will be much less immune people elsewhere. If we take for every confirmed case 7 more unconfirmed, it would mean about 1% immune for the whole Germany. That won't affect further spread in the slightest.

 

[Meadmaker]

Yet I've been told time and again that the social distancing was factored jnto the models/scenarios. Funny how it's whatever saves face for them.

The proof will be in the results, which are not in yet, obviously.

The social distancing was put into the models - sort of. It's not like "social distancing" is a binary on or off. More social distancing happened than was predicted.

You may still win the bet, which would be a good thing, and you might do it without a depression, which would be a better thing. Or.....not.

Honestly, I think the biggest factor will be the warm weather behavior of the virus. If, as some expect, it declines dramatically in warm weather then social distancing can be relaxed without a big wave of death, and might buy some time to actually allow containment. If, on the other hand, the virus does not subside in warm weather, I think we're screwed.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

I don't understand what your thought process is here. You do understand that Covid-19 will be with us for quite a while, yes? It might even become endemic.

I think you do understand, but okay. So you're saying there might be such a massive spike that they'll still need the emergency accommodations? Unlikely. NY appears to be veryclose to peak already.

 

[Ambrosia]

Although, you will have to talk me through the physics of how the virus cannot get out but will definitely get in. How does that work?

So lets assume that the virus is transmitted via droplets that an infected person has exhaled and that you are wearing a correctly fitted mask. The droplets containing the virus hit the mask and are caught by it. Were you not wearing the mask the droplets would have infected you.

Success!

Your mask has prevented infection. BUT! you neglect to immediately change your mask after it's caught the droplets, and now you are wearing a damp mask, loaded with virus particles, right next to your mouth. Your normal inhalations, combined with the evaporation of the liquids that recently were absorbed by the mask cause enough virus to make it through the mask into your system, and now you get infected anyway.

There isn't a filter fine enough to stop viruses but allow air though, so unless you change the mask frequently, and as soon as you suspect it might have been infected, then it's not really helping all that much.

In the reverse situation, where you are infected and are breathing out virus loaded droplets the mask much reduces the total amount of virus you are exhaling and spreads it over a finer area, so it should be very effective at reducing the chances of infecting other people.


tl:dr

incoming: a mask catches virus laden droplets and lets you inhale all of them over a longer period of time so is ineffective at preventing infection. Unless it is changed very frequently.

outgoing: a mask reduces the viral output of an infected person and spreads it over a longer period of time meaning you are less likely to infect others.

all of which assumes a correctly fitted mask, an incorrectly fitted mask is next to useless for either case.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I respect your views and wish there were some way to prove whether or not your extreme (to me) belief in the social distancing measures was warranted. Let's keep an eye on Sweden for that, assuming they stay the course.

Others predicted this, and it's sad to see it here.

If these steps ARE NOT taken the following will occur.

The steps are taken to prevent the outcome.

Conspiracy theorists: "Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

A couple of us here even used the example of the Herculean efforts that were taken around the world to avoid the Y2k bugs, only to be greeted by:

"Herp Derp - I told everyone it wuz a con and I right!"

This does absolutely nothing to prove or even give any evidence whatsoever that the social distance measure were warranted. You're doing nothing with this exercise but assuming that that is the case.

 

[Dr.Sid]

I think you do understand, but okay. So you're saying there might be such a massive spike that they'll still need the emergency accommodations? Unlikely. NY appears to be veryclose to peak already.

Look at South Korea. Country which numbers we can trust, and which as only one so far is safely behind the initial peak.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

New dalily cases peaked around March 1st. At that time South Korea had 21 deaths. Today, month later and something, they have 204.

The counts are sadly far from over.

 

[Belz...]

I think you do understand, but okay.

Ah, another poster who thinks that everyone thinks the same as them, and that disagreement must therefore stem from dishonesty?

If I'm telling you that I don't understand, you have no reason to assume that I do.

So you're saying there might be such a massive spike that they'll still need the emergency accommodations?

Where in the hell did you see that in my post?

 

[Samson]

So lets assume that the virus is transmitted via droplets that an infected person has exhaled and that you are wearing a correctly fitted mask. The droplets containing the virus hit the mask and are caught by it. Were you not wearing the mask the droplets would have infected you.

Success!

Your mask has prevented infection. BUT! you neglect to immediately change your mask after it's caught the droplets, and now you are wearing a damp mask, loaded with virus particles, right next to your mouth. Your normal inhalations, combined with the evaporation of the liquids that recently were absorbed by the mask cause enough virus to make it through the mask into your system, and now you get infected anyway.

There isn't a filter fine enough to stop viruses but allow air though, so unless you change the mask frequently, and as soon as you suspect it might have been infected, then it's not really helping all that much.

In the reverse situation, where you are infected and are breathing out virus loaded droplets the mask much reduces the total amount of virus you are exhaling and spreads it over a finer area, so it should be very effective at reducing the chances of infecting other people.


tl:dr

incoming: a mask catches virus laden droplets and lets you inhale all of them over a longer period of time so is ineffective at preventing infection. Unless it is changed very frequently.

outgoing: a mask reduces the viral output of an infected person and spreads it over a longer period of time meaning you are less likely to infect others.

all of which assumes a correctly fitted mask, an incorrectly fitted mask is next to useless for either case.

In New Zealand there are extraordinary isolation measures taken except at supermarkets where the visit is typically 5 to 20 minutes.
I would supply masks and gloves at the door which are destroyed on exit.
I am waiting to be told this won't prevent viral spread in the community and why. The cost would be infinitesimal compared to monitoring and controlling a cluster even if this were possible.