Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Belz...]

At what point is it enough and time to start getting back to normal?

Ideally after 2 months of lockdown, not more. I think past that the economic effects are going to start getting seriously felt.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Yes, this should be a teachable moment.

There are a lot of inputs and variables going into the death totals for the US. one needs to understand more than exponents to get it right.

Lol. Indeed. It's hilarious that I was mocked for "not understanding exponential growth" when it was abundantly clear that there was much to consider beyond exponents.

 

[pipelineaudio]

They can only transmit to people close to them. Hence Social Distancing.
.

Are you sure? Or can they transmit remotely by touching things as well?

 

[JeanTate]

Yes, this should be a teachable moment.

There are a lot of inputs and variables going into the death totals for the US. one needs to understand more than exponents to get it right.

There’s a name for this kind of logical fallacy, isn’t there?

Can’t think of that name just now ... perhaps “straw virus”?

 

[JeanTate]

Lol. Indeed. It's hilarious that I was mocked for "not understanding exponential growth" when it was abundantly clear that there was much to consider beyond exponents.

IIRC, you were “mocked” for a wide range of things.

For example, not citing sources.

Failing to recognize obvious, rabid CT nonsense.

Being “too busy” to answer direct, pertinent questions on what you posted.

Trying - strenuously? - to avoid science/evidence-based discussions, of your own ideas (and generally).

Etc.

 

[carlitos]

The "doubling every x days" seems to have a lot of people understanding exponential growth in layman-friendly terms.

 

[JeanTate]

The NY Times had an article about Iceland's goal of testing everyone in the country. While this endeavor is interesting from a research standpoint, I'm not seeing how it would be likely to have much of an impact on the spread of COVID-19. If a country were to test everyone over the course of, say, 4 months, and the average time between being infected and showing symptoms is 5 days, then they would by random chance catch around 4 percent of the people who are infected before they show symptoms (assuming that the tests are accurate on the first day the virus gains a foothold in a person). Similarly, if an asymptomatic person is contagious for a week and it takes an average of 3 days before they become contagious, by random chance about 8 person of asymptomatic people would be detected (3 days pre-contagious + 7 days contagious). And at the current rate, it's going to take longer than 4 months for Iceland to test everyone.

Am I totally out to lunch on this?

Do you have a link? Preferably to an Icelandic source (I.e. from Iceland, not in Icelandic).

Without knowing the details - tests, roll-out, objectives, etc - I think it’s hard to evaluate the plan. FWIW, the epidemiologists etc in Iceland who are directly involved are probably very smart, and have lots of experience and expertise ...

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

IIRC, you were “mocked” for a wide range of things.

For example, not citing sources.

Failing to recognize obvious, rabid CT nonsense.

Being “too busy” to answer direct, pertinent questions on what you posted.

Trying - strenuously? - to avoid science/evidence-based discussions, of your own ideas (and generally).

Etc.

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong. Interesting.

 

[JeanTate]

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong.

Wow, talk about chutzpah!

I do sometimes see this level of chutzpah, here in the SMM&T board, but it’s rare. And, IMO, almost always from ISF members pushing extreme woo (for avoidance of doubt, I am not saying that what you are pushing is extreme woo).

Can you please tell me when 2020 ended?

I was under the impression that it’s still April ...

 

[Belz...]

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong. Interesting.

In what way have you been "right", here?

 

[Mader Levap]

Whatever you say. And yet somehow, I'll have been right and you wrong. Interesting.

Why you lot feel need to trumpet your "victory" very, very prematurely?

I guess we all know why.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

In what way have you been "right", here?

If you can't see the writing on the wall already, I don't know what to tell you. The fiasco is ending. Official predictions are creeping down on the daily, such that we now have a projected 60k US deaths by August, while JeanTate maintains we'll be seeing >80k in 2-3 weeks. If you can't see that I'm right, it'll soon be undeniable to even the most obstinate.

 

[Marcus]

If you can't see the writing on the wall already, I don't know what to tell you. The fiasco is ending. Official predictions are creeping down on the daily, such that we now have a projected 60k US deaths by August, while JeanTate maintains we'll be seeing >80k in 2-3 weeks. If you can't see that I'm right, it'll soon be undeniable to even the most obstinate.

People just hate being wrong. If your predictions do end up being correct, don't expect any mea culpas. Although I don't doubt the avatar thing, I'm sure a change will be made.

 

[Belz...]

If you can't see the writing on the wall already, I don't know what to tell you. The fiasco is ending. Official predictions are creeping down on the daily, such that we now have a projected 60k US deaths by August, while JeanTate maintains we'll be seeing >80k in 2-3 weeks. If you can't see that I'm right, it'll soon be undeniable to even the most obstinate.

I asked you what you were right about, and now you go on a rant against a specific poster.

Could you answer my question, please?

 

[Belz...]

People just hate being wrong.

And some people make everything about being right.

This isn't the topic of the thread.

 

[JeanTate]

If you can't see the writing on the wall already, I don't know what to tell you. The fiasco is ending. Official predictions are creeping down on the daily, such that we now have a projected 60k US deaths by August, while JeanTate maintains we'll be seeing >80k in 2-3 weeks. If you can't see that I'm right, it'll soon be undeniable to even the most obstinate.

(My hilite)

Who is this “JeanTate” person?

How can you be “right” about a future which hasn’t happened?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

(My hilite)

Who is this “JeanTate” person?

I don't understand this question. It's you.

 

[Belz...]

Do you understand mine?

 

[The Atheist]

Instead of trying to see who's cleverest, can we maybe treat the topic seriously ask and answer questions in a straightforward manner?

5 people are dying of the disease every minute at the moment.

 

[Meadmaker]

If you can't see the writing on the wall already, I don't know what to tell you. The fiasco is ending. Official predictions are creeping down on the daily, such that we now have a projected 60k US deaths by August, while JeanTate maintains we'll be seeing >80k in 2-3 weeks. If you can't see that I'm right, it'll soon be undeniable to even the most obstinate.

True, true. But your bet goes through the end of 2020, so don't start gloating too soon.


What I think the majority opinion among people whose opinion appears in the press is, is that the reason for the lowering of the estimates is the success of social distancing. Unfortunately, the current level of social distancing is unsustainable, so that death rate is going to go up again as rules are relaxed. I think it's inevitable.

The only thing that could prevent it would be a massive testing regimen, far above anything the President is working on right now, and he's the only one that can make it happen.