Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Marcus]

Hang onto that thought. As the body count continues to rise. Even in NY.

In the film/movie Contagion (as in many other pandemic disaster flicks), there are mass graves. As there now are in NY. The difference is that the real life mass graves are intended to be temporary.

I do not live in the Big Apple, but know quite a few people who do. So far at least, lots of compliance, and no to little expression of lack of trust. The surveys that have been done, per FiveThirtyEight, give Cuomo extremely high marks for competence (ditto DeWine and Newsom). Not so much DeSantis*.

*New York, Ohio, California, Florida respectively

New York is certainly a hot spot, no surprise given the population density. They appear to be over the hump though, we will know for sure in a few days. The total coronavirus deaths in NYC as of today, 5,150, is not pleasant, but considering there are around 52,000 deaths every year in NYC, I don't think it is quite Contagion level.

 

[Marcus]

Mitigation isn't a binary thing. It's not like there's "with mitigation" versus "no mitigation".


What has happened is that there has been more compliance with social distancing rules than had been anticipated, so there are fewer cases. These models aren't exactly precise.

In the future, that level of compliance will almost certainly change, and the numbers go up again.

That is a reasonable suggestion. Or perhaps it is a combination, they didn't anticipate this much compliance, while also bending predictions into the high range to also influence compliance.

 

[Zambo]

I'm speculating. I'm open to other reasons, that's the reason I brought it up.

It seems very clear that the stay home/quarantine/lockdown actions have slowed the transmission.

Initially the idea was to eradicate the virus and stop it becoming a seasonal virus similar to the flue. But I guess that bird has now flown.

Although China had cases in every province only Wuhan Province was widely affected - a huge risk remains. Maybe Italy, Sweden and a few others are in a better position.

 

[Marcus]

Maybe you should trumpet about your oh so successful "prediction" after it happens, not months before.

"Trumpet?" Shouldn't you be rooting for the "deniers" or is being right more important? Besides, I have more confidence in Doghouse Reilly's prediction than my own.

 

[Marcus]

It seems very clear that the stay home/quarantine/lockdown actions have slowed the transmission.

Initially the idea was to eradicate the virus and stop it becoming a seasonal virus similar to the flue. But I guess that bird has now flown.

Although China had cases in every province only Wuhan Province was widely affected - a huge risk remains. Maybe Italy, Sweden and a few others are in a better position.

Yesterday there was a story about a previously uninfected part of China being infected from Russia but I didn't pay much attention.

 

[RedStapler]

Please don't be true


This article claims that the virus may reactivate in cured patients. I have found a similar claim on Reuters but only in german so far.

 

[JeanTate]

New York is certainly a hot spot, no surprise given the population density. They appear to be over the hump though, we will know for sure in a few days. The total coronavirus deaths in NYC as of today, 5,150, is not pleasant, but considering there are around 52,000 deaths every year in NYC, I don't think it is quite Contagion level.

As I said in response to one of Doghouse Reilly’s posts, I sure am glad Cuomo is the NY Governor (and de Blasio NYC Mayor) not you. Even though I do not live there.

Science, like Medicine (ideally) is evidence-based. Sorry to say, I’m not reading much in the way of (pertinent) evidence in your posts. Unlike in Cuomo’s and de Blasio’s TV appearances.

 

[JeanTate]

Yesterday there was a story about a previously uninfected part of China being infected from Russia but I didn't pay much attention.

Heilongjiang province?

It had one of the highest numbers of cases and deaths, before Wuhan removed most of its restrictions very recently. It’s quite a long way from Hubei, and unlike Guangdong (say) isn’t really on a major transport route.

I guess one day we’ll find out how many of the recent cases in Heilongjiang were imported from Russia ...

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Please don't be true


This article claims that the virus may reactivate in cured patients. I have found a similar claim on Reuters but only in german so far.

The first thing I'd look to rule out is false positives and false negatives.

 

[Planigale]

I am covering the non-acute wards for the holiday weekend. The hospital is still relatively quiet, plenty of beds. The expected peak has not hit yet, and social distancing and home care teams are keeping many people out of hospital. My ward is mostly elderly women, many with dementia who are in hospital for a variety of reasons and have tested positive for covid-19. Most are relatively well. Earlier on they would have been in isolation rooms, but now they are cohorted in an old fashioned open ward all of whose patients are infected. This is much better for the nurses who can keep an eye on elderly confused patients much easily on an open ward than in single rooms, but also much better for the patients. If you have dementia being in isolation even with a tv is not good. On the open ward there is much more stimulation. There are people around all the time to have a quick word, help you with a drink or needing the toilet. Although it must be odd with all the staff masked up at least we are around all the time as opposed to earlier when we would have to dress up to go into single rooms, and we tried to minimise exposure. We dress up in PPE when we go on the ward and take it off if we leave (e.g. to write up notes as the paper work is kept clean, or order tests on the computer also kept clean as submerging computers in bleach tends to be terminal!) Now isolation is restricted to those not known to be covid-19 infected, you get out of isolation if and when you test positive.

None of the patients appear to have significant pneumonia, none are on oxygen. We are treating mild heart failure, urinary tract infection, leg infections (cellulitis), low blood pressure, relatively minor aliments exaggerated by the general fatigue and malaise of having a viral infection. So we re-stabilise their medication, treat their infections, and try and give them a bit of physiotherapy and make sure they are fit enough to get home. For those with family at home this is relatively easy, they can always come back if they are not coping, but for the frail elderly living alone who have cognitive impairment this is a slower process.

 

[Zambo]

Please don't be true


This article claims that the virus may reactivate in cured patients. I have found a similar claim on Reuters but only in german so far.

I didn't bother to read that. But the main aim of the current attempts is to impose social distancing in order to stop people catching the virus. That reduces the risk of hospitals being overrun. But that in itself results in each country having a large population with no antibodies and so far no vaccine.

 

[RedStapler]

I didn't bother to read that. But the main aim of the current attempts is to impose social distancing in order to stop people catching the virus. That reduces the risk of hospitals being overrun. But that in itself results in each country having a large population with no antibodies and so far no vaccine.

Nothing of this is an answer to what I posted. And why even comment when your first sentence is "I didn't bother to read that"?

 

[Planigale]

The first thing I'd look to rule out is false positives and false negatives.

Yes, given that even in those who we know are definitely positive, throat swabs are negative in 30%, I think the most likely explanation is they had two false negative swabs rather than being 'cured'.

 

[RedStapler]

Yes, given that even in those who we know are definitely positive, throat swabs are negative in 30%, I think the most likely explanation is they had two false negative swabs rather than being 'cured'.

Agreed, thank you for this. Sorry for posting these.

For now I'll file these 2 articles under "Particles moving faster than light? Oops, no it was a faulty cable"

 

[Zambo]

Nothing of this is an answer to what I posted. And why even comment when your first sentence is "I didn't bother to read that"?

My point was that the main danger now is not people being infected for a second time (i.e. antibodies non-existant or insufficient) but instead people who were protected from infection so that a huge population remains at risk. A vaccine is needed and that will hopefully help also the group that concerns you.

 

[Mader Levap]

"Trumpet?" Shouldn't you be rooting for the "deniers" or is being right more important?

Are you suggesting my opinion can impact actual number of deaths? Are you imagining statisticians or epidemiologists predict deaths with psychopathic glee in eye or something equally moronic?

Besides, I have more confidence in Doghouse Reilly's prediction than my own.

Funny thing, because I have no confidence in neither.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

The NY Times had an article about Iceland's goal of testing everyone in the country. While this endeavor is interesting from a research standpoint, I'm not seeing how it would be likely to have much of an impact on the spread of COVID-19. If a country were to test everyone over the course of, say, 4 months, and the average time between being infected and showing symptoms is 5 days, then they would by random chance catch around 4 percent of the people who are infected before they show symptoms (assuming that the tests are accurate on the first day the virus gains a foothold in a person). Similarly, if an asymptomatic person is contagious for a week and it takes an average of 3 days before they become contagious, by random chance about 8 person of asymptomatic people would be detected (3 days pre-contagious + 7 days contagious). And at the current rate, it's going to take longer than 4 months for Iceland to test everyone.

Am I totally out to lunch on this?

 

[mike81]

Dr Fauci has said that "immunity cards" have been discussed. This and other things have made me wonder if we are starting to go too far. At what point is it enough and time to start getting back to normal? I know we needed to do things to stop the spread, but where is the line? Once we cross it there is no going back

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

This seems like a good time to quote this post from 4-1.

Surprise, the total today is not 2,000,000, but 466,396. People who doubted the predictions are not necessarily idiots.



Take for example Doghouse Reilly's prediction of less than 85,000 deaths which was roundly excoriated just last week. The official prediction for US deaths is now 60,000.


Yes, preventative measures have helped, this was known last week and it was known 10 days ago.


Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

Yes, this should be a teachable moment.

There are a lot of inputs and variables going into the death totals for the US. one needs to understand more than exponents to get it right.

 

[Belz...]

My point was that the main danger now is not people being infected for a second time

Maybe you should've bothered to read the article, then, because that's not what's being discussed, and it's an important question.