Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[JesseCuster]

That's true, I believe but I think it's a red herring.

We know for sure it first spread through ski resorts and I doubt any Chinese labourers would be hitting the slopes.

I've got a radical idea...

If the virus got to ski resorts Italy via Chinese labourers in northern Italy, then perhaps one of them infected an Italian national who then went on a skiing holiday and it spread amongst the skiers there.

The Chinese labourers don't need to have visited the slopes themselves and infected people there in order for the outbreak there to have ultimately originated from them.

edit: I've no idea how the outbreak started or spread in or from ski resorts in the Alps, I just find your objection a bit odd.

 

[steenkh]

It's all very dependent. Would you stop and put on a T-Shirt with "Bullet Proof Vest" printed on it before getting into a gun fight? Because that's about the effectiveness of most masks at stopping SARS-CoV-2.

You are probably right, but does that matter? Even if the masks cannot "stop" SARS-CoV-2, it is very probable that masks can prevent some infections. So if you do not have the perfect solution, wouldn't it makes sense to use a solution with, say, 10% success?

 

[gypsyjackson]

And you can add in Mexico, Indonesia & Malaysia as places where the numbers are going in a dangerous direction.

Looks to me like it's developing nations about to take off. That will not be funny.

In Malaysia, the numbers - while still rising - seem to be doing so less dramatically, and I would hesitate right now to say 'dangerous direction'. We went into lockdown on 18 March (a stricter form came in on 1 April, extended today until at least 28 April), and it took a few days for enforcement to kick in; the last week has seen a downward trend in new cases which is what you would hope to see. Admittedly a small sample size.

So I hope very much we won't be the 'developing' nation which takes off. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that the economy here is suffering so much that the Govt, already fragile due to the machinations earlier this year, is persuaded to open up earlier than it should. Another factor is Ramadan and then Eid on May 23/4 - lots of people want to go home for gatherings, and the month following Eid is open house season, where you visit all your Muslim friends for their come one and all parties, businesses throw big parties etc. Hopefully the latter at least will be suspended for a year.

 

[Childlike Empress]

edit: I've no idea how the outbreak started or spread in or from ski resorts in the Alps, I just find your objection a bit odd.

The "hotspot" in Heinsberg/Germany, from which it spread further to several early cases in the country, has been determined to have been a carnival festivity that was attended by a man/couple (can't remember) that was infected at a ski resort in the Alps.

 

[steenkh]

I don't know how reliable this source is, but if its true that there are 100,000 Chinese nationals doing seasonal work in northern italian fashion suppliers...whoa! Maybe it explains some stuff

https://www.rebellionresearch.com/b...ftyEbtjssAij9MkyHntr2wB09ZUczgbx-xDjL3ECvUSvE

Even if it is true that there are that many Chinese migrant workers in Italy, it is very unlikely that they would be the source of the infection, because the first infections among Italians were not among Chinese migrant workers.

For a long time it has been established that the Italian patient 0 was a 38-year old Italian super spreader who returned from a trip to China. There is some that think that it is possible that the infection had spread undetected in Italy before that time, but again, you cannot find any evidence that the Chinese community in Italy has been among the first to be hit.

 

[JeanTate]

Anecdote from a hotspot*: free local testing for the coronavirus, open 3 days each week, ~4 hours each day, results in 5-7 business days. Registration required (there is a phone number but website is preferred), and only people who can prove they live locally are accepted.

Yep, that’s gonna stop it, almost immediately!

*Technically just outside the NY one, a place where lots of people commute to work (etc) in the Big Apple, or, rather, used to.

 

[JesseCuster]

16,267 deaths and 25,119 recovered in the United States works out to 39.3% IFR.

Uhm. Surely not.

Plus over 400,000 people in the United States who have neither recovered from it nor died from it, but have tested positive.

As well as far more who have it but haven't been tested.

The real fatality rate will come out in the wash eventually.

 

[Marcus]

This seems like a good time to quote this post from 4-1.

You wanted to see exponential growth? See this page https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Scroll down to the Total Coronavirus Cases in the United States heading and click on logarithmic scale. The graph is a straight line. This means that the number of cases in the USA goes up by a factor of 10 every 9 days. There are over 200,000 cases now, on around 10 April that will be 2,000,000 cases. On March 1 there were 100 cases. But do not worry. By the end of April it will be slowing down as most people would either have [had] the virus or be in lockdown mode.

Edit. Just looked at your death toll. Currently 5,100. Will be 510,000 by the end of April. And probably 5 million by the end of May. How does that compare with flu?

Surprise, the total today is not 2,000,000, but 466,396. People who doubted the predictions are not necessarily idiots.



Take for example Doghouse Reilly's prediction of less than 85,000 deaths which was roundly excoriated just last week. The official prediction for US deaths is now 60,000.


Yes, preventative measures have helped, this was known last week and it was known 10 days ago.


Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

 

[alfaniner]

I suspect that breathing air in would create a slightly better seal due to the slight partial vacuum whereas breathing out produces slightly higher pressure reducing the seal fit of the mask. That effect is likely greater on N95 type masks than surgical ones which really don't have much sealing. But even for surgical masks I suspect well over 99% of inhaled and exhaled air goes through the mask filter.

I completely agree with the highlighted quote.
Clearly masks are far more effective at preventing spread from infected patients. Both aerosols and droplets. At best a mask can only partially protect the single individual that wears one.

One thing I haven't seen (OK, so I'm sure somebody has) is effectively sealing the mask with tape. Duct tape, athletic tape, KT kinesiology tape (that stuff is awesome! Not for its claims, but its comfort and staying power), even Breathe-Right strips just to keep the mask from slipping. I myself have a scarf (pictured elsewhere here) that stays on quite nicely and I prefer to use, even though I have an N95 mask and two surgical masks that I found I had in the house. With the facial hair I think I'm better off with the scarf anyway.

 

[JeanTate]

This seems like a good time to quote this post from 4-1.

Surprise, the total today is not 2,000,000, but 466,396. People who doubted the predictions are not necessarily idiots.



Take for example Doghouse Reilly's prediction of less than 85,000 deaths which was roundly excoriated just last week. The official prediction for US deaths is now 60,000.

Yes, preventative measures have helped, this was known last week and it was known 10 days ago.


Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

So it was wrong before, but is right now ... because it’s what you want to read?

I must have missed it ... where’s the science?

 

[Zambo]

See Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong has 900 odd cases (300 recovered) and 4 deaths. Don't tell me that masks don't help.

I wrongly included Singapore on that list last time this came up, there were not wearing masks yet have now started a large outbreak. They have now gone on complete lockdown and are recommending masks.

When they are available, masks help, full stop.

Yes, now in Singapore masks are recommended and the government have distributed one washable cloth mask per person (after an initial shortage medical face masks are also reasonably available to buy)

I agree masks do help, but the main cause of the resurgence in Singapore is a miscalculation of the risks. There is an old fashioned department store called Mustafa in Little India, it's packed 24/7 and specialises in lower priced goods. Once that became a hotspot it was only a matter of time before cases turned up in the South Asian workers who generally live in huge dormitory blocks. Now these blocks are under quarantine orders where known to have cases, or lockdown with no movement through the gates.

 

[Marcus]

I'm thinking maybe part of the reason for the extreme predictions on the part of the experts was to scare the public into compliance with all the new recommendations. While this might be a laudable goal, it's counterproductive in the long run as it trains people not to trust you.

 

[eeyore1954]

This seems like a good time to quote this post from 4-1.

Surprise, the total today is not 2,000,000, but 466,396. People who doubted the predictions are not necessarily idiots.



Take for example Doghouse Reilly's prediction of less than 85,000 deaths which was roundly excoriated just last week. The official prediction for US deaths is now 60,000.


Yes, preventative measures have helped, this was known last week and it was known 10 days ago.


Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

I am also pretty sure they said (one of the experts not Trump) those numbers above 100,000 were with mitigation taken into account.

 

[Belz...]

I'm thinking maybe part of the reason for the extreme predictions on the part of the experts was to scare the public into compliance with all the new recommendations. While this might be a laudable goal, it's counterproductive in the long run as it trains people not to trust you.

And your evidence for this evil plot is?

 

[Zambo]

I'm thinking maybe part of the reason for the extreme predictions on the part of the experts was to scare the public into compliance with all the new recommendations. While this might be a laudable goal, it's counterproductive in the long run as it trains people not to trust you.

Or alternatively the action taken has been effective

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I'm thinking maybe part of the reason for the extreme predictions on the part of the experts was to scare the public into compliance with all the new recommendations. While this might be a laudable goal, it's counterproductive in the long run as it trains people not to trust you.

Perhaps predictions have become more accurate as more data has accrued?

 

[JeanTate]

I'm thinking maybe part of the reason for the extreme predictions on the part of the experts was to scare the public into compliance with all the new recommendations. While this might be a laudable goal, it's counterproductive in the long run as it trains people not to trust you.

Hang onto that thought. As the body count continues to rise. Even in NY.

In the film/movie Contagion (as in many other pandemic disaster flicks), there are mass graves. As there now are in NY. The difference is that the real life mass graves are intended to be temporary.

I do not live in the Big Apple, but know quite a few people who do. So far at least, lots of compliance, and no to little expression of lack of trust. The surveys that have been done, per FiveThirtyEight, give Cuomo extremely high marks for competence (ditto DeWine and Newsom). Not so much DeSantis*.

*New York, Ohio, California, Florida respectively

 

[Marcus]

And your evidence for this evil plot is?

I'm speculating. I'm open to other reasons, that's the reason I brought it up.

 

[Meadmaker]

I am also pretty sure they said (one of the experts not Trump) those numbers above 100,000 were with mitigation taken into account.

Mitigation isn't a binary thing. It's not like there's "with mitigation" versus "no mitigation".


What has happened is that there has been more compliance with social distancing rules than had been anticipated, so there are fewer cases. These models aren't exactly precise.

In the future, that level of compliance will almost certainly change, and the numbers go up again.

 

[Mader Levap]

Several weeks ago I predicted less than 70,000 deaths in the US. The response was that since I had no qualifications at all (true) I was just an idiot denier and I should shut up.

Maybe you should trumpet about your oh so successful "prediction" after it happens, not months before.