Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Fast Eddie B]

The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.

Our network news said the move was in case he needed to be intubated. Implying his breathing difficulties were leading in that direction.

 

[Marcus]

The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.

Yes, just heard this on NPR. They want to be close to ventilators just in case.

 

[Samson]

Yes, just heard this on NPR. They want to be close to ventilators just in case.

It is being stated he is pretty inevitably going on a ventilator.

 

[Belz...]

Ok. I can accept that I was mistaken.

If it happens to me, it can happen to anyone!

You can calm down

Yay!

and tell me which part of TA's post you were responding to.

I was responding to what I considered to be the general idea, not any specific part. In short, I don't know why I should care too much about what Gates thinks in these matters, when I already have actual experts in the field telling us what's what.

I didn't think that'd be controversial, or that pointing this out would sound like an attack on Bill Gates to some here.

Moving on.

 

[Darat]

The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.

No it was because his condition deteriorated.

 

[Darat]

Yes, just heard this on NPR. They want to be close to ventilators just in case.

Intensive care is not just for people on ventilators. Strange given my usual views on the privilege his class normally demands I don't think in this instance he is taking up a bed in a ICU unnecessarily.

 

[Roboramma]

If it happens to me, it can happen to anyone!



Yay!



I was responding to what I considered to be the general idea, not any specific part. In short, I don't know why I should care too much about what Gates thinks in these matters, when I already have actual experts in the field telling us what's what.

I didn't think that'd be controversial, or that pointing this out would sound like an attack on Bill Gates to some here.

Moving on.

The general point of the post seemed to be that Gates made a great decision in "building facilities to produce seven potential vaccines so he can throw away the ones not needed and provide the world with the right one immediately". I have to agree.

And I don't think we need any experts on vaccine development and distribution to tell us that, but if we want one with knowledge about the issue from a top level perspective, a person who's foundation is responsible for as much successful work on that front as any other organization is probably among the most qualified.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Maybe he read this in 2007

https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660.full

Would that a few more people had! Talk about being prescient.

The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.

 

[Marcus]

Intensive care is not just for people on ventilators. Strange given my usual views on the privilege his class normally demands I don't think in this instance he is taking up a bed in a ICU unnecessarily.

They seemed to be saying he was getting some especially careful treatment because of his position, which seems reasonable to me, but I just heard a report, I don't claim to know all the details.

 

[Elagabalus]

You can't prove that that is why the pneumonia cases have gone down any more than I can prove that patients who would have died of pneumonia are now dying WITH (not from) coronavirus.
And no, I thought the precautions were dumb from the beginning, I didn't care if I had it or not but my wife did care. I did the proper quarantine and stick to the measures that make people comfortable.

Can you elaborate what this means?


Also, what is your source for the pneumonia cases going down. It's not this one graph as discussed here, is it?

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=13046766#post13046766

 

[Samson]

Would that a few more people had! Talk about being prescient.

The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.

Yes entirely preventable if China had closed the markets.
It would be farcical to suggest this was not plausible in a totalitarian state.

I did not discover that review of thousands of (mainly Chinese and Hong Kong research papers?), someone upthread did.

Imagine had the resource going to reeducating Chinese muslims gone to the project of shutting the markets for ever.

 

[The Atheist]

NZ is starting to look like we acted just in time, with cases dropping by 10% both the past two days and fairly extreme measures in place.
__________________________

USA might be surprisingly getting on top of it as well, with a definite flattening of the growth in cases & deaths.

Just as the place starts to warm up...

 

[pipelineaudio]

Amazing for parts of california! Really keeping the fingers crossed there

 

[ShadowSot]

Can anyone explain why the death toll reported by the Who is so low compared to other sources? Current totals I see ar around 70000,the WHO is showing 26000

 

[Myriad]

Can anyone explain why the death toll reported by the Who is so low compared to other sources? Current totals I see ar around 70000,the WHO is showing 26000

I can't explain, and The Who obviously can't explain either.

 

[marting]

Can anyone explain why the death toll reported by the Who is so low compared to other sources? Current totals I see ar around 70000,the WHO is showing 26000

I don't know where you get the idea WHO is reporting only 26000 deaths.


This is from their website as of Apr 7.
67,594 deaths

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0406-sitrep-77-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=21d1e632_2

 

[ShadowSot]

I don't know where you get the idea WHO is reporting only 26000 deaths.


This is from their website as of Apr 7.
67,594 deaths

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0406-sitrep-77-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=21d1e632_2

Cheers, though I made a mistake from quick fingers and slow brain. It's still lower than other statitistics.
The claim is that they're conflating deaths.

 

[Dr.Sid]

My guess is they actually want some specific method of counting the dead. While the general numbers from news use different method for each country.

 

[ShadowSot]

My guess is they actually want some specific method of counting the dead. While the general numbers from news use different method for each country.

That'd be my guess, I'd assume due to limited testing actual lab confirmed deaths are lower than actual count.

 

[marting]

At JeanTate's suggestion I took numbers from crescent's post and WHO numbers for Italy's daily death rates and made a table showing daily increase/decrease ratios and associated R values assuming a generation delay of 6 days between infection and infection of others.

The important factor is the daily rate of increase/decrease. One can see in the case of Italy that R bounced around 2.5 before March 20 then dropped to just over 1 and finally below 1 on Apr 1. Keep in mind that R is a result of infections that typically occurred 3 weeks earlier.

The USA's number reflect some decrease, from around 3.5 before March 30, to around
2.3. This is still quite high but consistent with the awareness and partial social distancing in effect on March 9. I went to a restaurant about that time and it had about 2/3 the normal customers.


http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=13046810&postcount=1910

Because there is so much noise In day to day death variations I used the increase over a week's period but changed one day at a time. This seems to reduce noise significantly. It may be due to variations that occur naturally in reporting at different times during the week. Hence the date corresponds to the 7 day midpoint in the selected range.

Here's Italy from March 14 to Apr 3 from WHO data:

date|7 Day|daily|
Date|Deaths|Ratio|R
13-Mar|1443
14-Mar|1695|1.17|2.6
15-Mar|1872|1.10|1.8
16-Mar|2149|1.15|2.3
17-Mar|2389|1.11|1.9
18-Mar|2762|1.16|2.4
19-Mar|3384|1.23|3.5
20-Mar|3665|1.08|1.6
21-Mar|3917|1.07|1.5
22-Mar|4315|1.10|1.8
23-Mar|4527|1.05|1.3
24-Mar|4758|1.05|1.3
25-Mar|5104|1.07|1.5
26-Mar|5196|1.02|1.1
27-Mar|5305|1.02|1.1
28-Mar|5514|1.04|1.3
29-Mar|5610|1.02|1.1
30-Mar|5652|1.01|1.1
31-Mar|5752|1.02|1.1
1-Apr|5545|0.96|0.8
2-Apr|5339|0.96|0.8
3-Apr|5108|0.96|0.8

One can see the progression of Italy getting COVID-19 under control.


And here's the USA from crescent's data:

date|7 Day|daily|
Date|Deaths|Ratio|R
23-Mar|1295|x|x
24-Mar|1440|1.11|1.9
25-Mar|1919|1.33|5.5
26-Mar|2125|1.11|1.9
27-Mar|2586|1.22|3.3
28-Mar|3273|1.27|4.2
29-Mar|4075|1.25|3.8
30-Mar|4781|1.17|2.6
31-Mar|5426|1.13|2.1
1-Apr|6231|1.15|2.3
2-Apr|7033|1.13|2.1

The USA still has a ways to go but having R cross 1 somewhere around Apr 15 seems reasonable.