Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Planigale]

"Air doesn't matter. Blood does."
I keep thinking of this quote from The Andromeda Strain.

There is something a bit odd with UK doctor deaths from covid, which might just be chance but...

Dr Alfa Saadu, 68y
Mr. Amged el-Hawrani, 55y ear, nose and throat consultant
Mr Adil el Tayar, 63y surgeon,
Dr Habib Zaidi, 76y, GP

that they are all older and male is not surprising but the chances of all four being ethnic minorities is a little odd.

 

[novaphile]

There is something a bit odd with UK doctor deaths from covid, which might just be chance but...

Dr Alfa Saadu, 68y
Mr. Amged el-Hawrani, 55y ear, nose and throat consultant
Mr Adil el Tayar, 63y surgeon,
Dr Habib Zaidi, 76y, GP

that they are all older and male is not surprising but the chances of all four being ethnic minorities is a little odd.

Erm... Have you ever been to England?

 

[Tero]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/

Please also note that the same source you are quoting also contradicts your earlier claim that COVID-19 is transmitted "thru the air"...

(snip)

The viruses and bacteria as well, are not thing you can vaporize. They are always carried in the air as water droplets. Think of it as a thin mist, tiny water droplets that are light enough that they flow with the air quite a distance horizontally before gravity takes them down. You can take one of them misters that people use on flowers to observe just how far a squirt can travel. Put a piece of paper in between and see how many go around the top of the paper to the other side.

Mythbusters videos

sneeze https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f4sUNWkq60

party video
https://kmox.radio.com/articles/radiocom/mythbusters-experiment-shows-social-distancing-importance

 

[Athyrio]

I thought of that after making the post. I had posted in the middle of the day, with a start point I got by looking at the total on the Worldmeter site. But they run the totals "live", updating as information comes in. Which means that by the end of the day, the number I chose for March 31 was already 'wrong' in a sort of a way. Might have been better to have started with the previous day's totals, for an apples to apples comparison of the totals from the end of each day with the spreadsheet numbers. I don't think it makes a huge difference though - it's not exactly a precision scientific estimate, just a rough structure to promote dialogue..

Actually the site I use updates several times a day too so the number I posted for "end of MAR. 31" was 6 hours into Apr. 1 so I'll just look at it another way.

Your spreadsheet shows an increase in the death tally of 754 form 31 MAR to 01 APR.

The tally from when I posted at this time yesterday for the same period shows a real increase of 1067 so we're already losing over 1000 per day.

I won't mention this again until we hit 35,000 or if there is a significant change up or down. Too depressing.

 

[Meadmaker]

That's right, you did mention that. But is that 100k total (USA deaths) between flu and coronavirus, or 100k from just coronavirus? If it were, for example, 99k from just coronavirus, I would definitely consider that a very real and serious pandemic. If it were from flu/coronavirus combined I would say my suspicions were vindicated.

No, I'm talking just coronavirus.


By the way, yesterday 1,000 people in the US died from coronavirus. Do you think in a really bad flu year you could find a day when 1,000 people died from flu in a single day?

If the answer is yes, and it is conceivable it might be, wait until the end of the day and repeat the question using that number, which will be higher.

 

[Planigale]

Erm... Have you ever been to England?

Born, brought up in Yorkshire, also am of Pakistani 'ethnicity'. Approximately 1/3 UK doctors non-white so odds are 1:81.

 

[Matthew Best]

Born, brought up in Yorkshire, also am of Pakistani 'ethnicity'. Approximately 1/3 UK doctors non-white so odds are 1:81.

Where were those doctors working, and what are the proportions of non-white doctors in those areas? This thread is the only thing I know about this, but it strikes me that most of the problem is concentrated in London, where there may be a higher proportion of non-white doctors. Just off the top of my head.

 

[Meadmaker]

So some evangelical Christian charity builds a makeshift hospital IN ANTICIPATION of it being needed. Get back to me when it's needed. This is more of the same "sandbags being proof of an impending flood".

How often does this happen in NY? Well, how often do we have mass hysteria and panic like this? Pretty much never. It's evidence of nothing except belief.

At this point I'm pretty much done arguing about it. The numbers will prove me right. We're already seeing that the supposed apocalyptic exponential growth is not happening, so it will all be clear soon enough.

You are looking at different numbers than I am, obviously.

 

[JeanTate]

There is something a bit odd with UK doctor deaths from covid, which might just be chance but...

Dr Alfa Saadu, 68y
Mr. Amged el-Hawrani, 55y ear, nose and throat consultant
Mr Adil el Tayar, 63y surgeon,
Dr Habib Zaidi, 76y, GP

that they are all older and male is not surprising but the chances of all four being ethnic minorities is a little odd.

It might seem odd, but is it?

We’re adapted to easily identify unusual patterns (that strange noise might be wind, but safer to consider it a predator), but rather poor at intuitively analyzing probabilities.

Suppose 1/3 of your friends like strawberry ice cream (and the rest don’t). What are the chances that the first four of your friends to arrive at your (virtual, online!) party are strawberry ice cream fanciers?

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Let's run with that low 0.01% mortality rate.

Italy has a population of 60 million. If every single person in Italy had COVID-19 and 0.01% of them died that would be a total of 6,000 deaths from COVID-19.

So far the total deaths from COVID-19 in Italy is 12,400 and rising.

The death rate can't possibly be that low. How can those numbers possibly make any sense?

Excellent point.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Surely we can put an end to this "its just like the flu" idea, as it has completely different observed R0 numbers.

Seasonal flu, around 1.3.
Covid-19, between 2.2. to 2.5.

That's a huge difference in practice:

Seasonal flu, after 10 generations of infection has reached around 14 people.

Covid-19, after 10 generations of infection assuming R0=2.2 has reached 2,655 people.
Covid-19, after 10 generations of infection assuming R0=2.5 has reached 9,536 people.

Covid-19 is way more contagious. It is nothing like flu, anyone who thinks that is kidding themselves.

 

[Roboramma]

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/fda-prevents-import-of-masks.html

The KN95 mask is China’s version of the N95 mask. 3M, America’s largest manufacturer of N95 masks, said in January that the masks are equivalent. But the FDA is not allowing KN95s into the country.

 

[lomiller]

You do see your internal contradiction don't you? "Denying the seriousness ... is also COVID denial,... (and then) ...the seriousness of COVID is being argued in this thread. "

I see no contradiction at all. The evidence says it’s a serious issue, and the experts in the field say it’s serious. Saying otherwise while presenting no positive evidence or scientifically sound arguments supporting your position is denialism.

How can I participate without being accused of being a denialist?

If you advance your position with evidence and sound arguments you shouldn’t have any problem.

 

[Arcade22]

Jason Kindrachuk, assistant professor and Canada research chair at Manitoba University’s department of medical microbiology & infectious diseases, said it was hard to know how daily life could return to normal until there was a vaccine and until governments know what the immunity levels are across the population.

“The concern with this virus … is how to reduce social distancing measures and enforcement in such a way that you don’t reignite transmission chains for the virus and find yourself back at square one with trying to get things contained,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ossible-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections

This is the ultimate weakness of the "lockdown everything" strategy. For how long are they going to keep it up? Until there is a vaccine?

I recalled a WHO official being asked this and he responded something like "we have to wait until a vaccine". When asked what would happen if there was no vaccine, he said something like "science will find a solution". Very comforting.

 

[Zambo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ossible-second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections

This is the ultimate weakness of the "lockdown everything" strategy. For how long are they going to keep it up? Until there is a vaccine?

I recalled a WHO official being asked this and he responded something like "we have to wait until a vaccine". When asked what would happen if there was no vaccine, he said something like "science will find a solution". Very comforting.

Will social distancing help. When talking to colleagues I notice they are further back now and I tend to lean back in my chair (further if they they tend to cough or spit when talking). Shaking hands might not restart for a while. Work from home might become more widely accepted. Classes might continue online (I think kids adapt quicker than adults to Zoom).

 

[Arcade22]

Meanwhile, in these dark times desperate Norwegians are willing to become amateur smugglers to sate their addictions:

Like the area around Strömstad in northern Bohuslän, the border north of Charlottenberg warmland is well frequented by purchase-seeking Norwegians. Fresh tracks are now visible on trails and small roads through the forest. This is reported by the Norwegian World Gang, which has been in contact with freelance journalist Kjell R. Hermansen.

- These are well-known smuggling routes from the past, says Kjell R. Hermansen to DN.

Last week, the journalist set out on the forest roads in the border area with the camera over his shoulder. Here he met a cyclist who had gone to Sweden to buy cigarettes. A person on a motorcycle passed and a pedestrian came carrying them on a bag from a Swedish candy store.

- He hid it when he saw my camera, says Kjell R. Hermansen.

In order to prevent the spread of the new corona virus, Norway has tightened the rules for those crossing the border. Only Norwegian citizens and people who live or work in the country are admitted. Persons with Norwegian passports, residence permits or work permits must be quarantined in their home for 14 days after entry. Exceptions apply to those traveling between Norway, Finland and Sweden in connection with travel between home and work.

https://translate.google.se/transla...korsar-svenska-gransen-pa-gamla-smuggelvagar/

 

[Mader Levap]

The reason I'm skeptical of this pandemic is because so far I haven't found the evidence persuasive that one exists.

That does not say much if you deliberately ignore, handwave or explain away said evidence.

You simply really, really do not want it to be something serious. What you want does not matter. Reality does not care for your wishes.

COVID-19 is already proven to be worse than "normal flu". No wait for more deaths needed.

 

[JeanTate]

<snip>

I edit science papers,

<snip>

Keep this in mind, dear reader, as you read the following quoted posts (all from this thread, here in the Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology board).

Italy's health system isn't being overwhelmed, its health system in Lombardy/Milan is. We have seen this before in certain places. Israel in 2015, for example, or Boston in 2013.

That's relevant re a later post with the number 60 million.

Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.

https://web.archive.org/web/2020032...coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

JesseCluster, per the next quoted post, is certainly not the only reader to have found a rather obvious inconsistency:

Let's run with that low 0.01% mortality rate.

Italy has a population of 60 million. If every single person in Italy had COVID-19 and 0.01% of them died that would be a total of 6,000 deaths from COVID-19.

So far the total deaths from COVID-19 in Italy is 12,400 and rising.

The death rate can't possibly be that low. How can those numbers possibly make any sense?

Myself, I'm finding it very hard to reconcile "I edit science papers" with the very obvious fail (sorry DG, no other word for it) I've clearly shown here.

DG, are you familiar with the term JAQing? (Just Asking Questions)

 

[JeanTate]

<snip>
Note: I have certainly asked for sources. I've also asked directly pertinent questions which are about things other than sources.

Yes, I would like to address both of those requests.

Here is post #979, by me:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

For Doghouse Reilly:

<snip>

I shall try to compile a list.

<snip>

From #872:
DR: "Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected."
me: "A source would be nice."

me: "Is the covid-19 epidemic, in Italy, over? Or is it still on-going? How about in the US?
If it's still on-going, what is the basis for making comparisons with the "normal flu"?"

me: "If, this time next year, well over a million people in the US died of covid-19, then the media's "Grim death toll projected" will have been accurate, right?"

From #876:
DR: "Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down"
me: "Source?"
{repeated in #948}

DR: "In other words, same thing."
me: "Without actual numbers, "same thing" is rather meaningless, wouldn't you say?"

From #933:
me: "I'm no longer familiar with expats (that's what the group the researchers studied is, right?), but they are surely not a good cross-section of any country's population, are they?
So we should treat 0.66% as some sort of lower bound, for people in developed economies, right?"

From #950:
me: "Well, we can look at numbers from China. From Singapore. Even South Korea.
Do those numbers "prove you [Doghouse Reilly] right"?"

{Your #952 does not address my question, which is about this, from your #934: "Perhaps you will be proven right. Perhaps I will. The difference is, if I'm proven right, everyone will say I really wasn't, and it was just all of the heroic measures that were taken that saved us all. Kind of unfair, how you get to be right either way."}

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Did you read this post of mine, DR?

May I ask if you still intend to honor your word?

 

[Matthew Best]

You snipped out the fact that he edits science papers "for grammar and clarity". Unless you can point to a grammatical error he's committed, I'm not sure of the relevance.