Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Mader Levap]

Can you show us a sample of Covid denial in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "there is no covid".

Downplaying severity of threat counts as denial.

"Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die"

This show of double standard is hilarious. You are doing what you criticize in others.

I keep reading claims that immunity to COVID-19 does not exist

Where you heard that? This is obviously not true, otherwise you could not have people cured of COVID-19. It is not incurable disease.

 

[William Parcher]

Daily Mail: Florida now under statewide lockdown.

 

[ServiceSoon]

No you do not understand the term immunity correctly.

The first definition from a medical dictionary disagrees with your statement. 1. being highly resistant to a disease because of the formation of humoral antibodies or the development of immunologically competent cells, or both, or as a result of some other mechanism, as interferon activities in viral infections.

 

[Capsid]

The first definition from a medical dictionary disagrees with your statement. 1. being highly resistant to a disease because of the formation of humoral antibodies or the development of immunologically competent cells, or both, or as a result of some other mechanism, as interferon activities in viral infections.

Maybe for clarification the statement should be that immunity to COVID DID not exist?


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[Delphic Oracle]

I don't know if you can be immune to COVID-19, but I'm fairly certain you can have resistance to SARS-COV-2 (after exposure).

 

[ServiceSoon]

...
Where you heard that? This is obviously not true, otherwise you could not have people cured of COVID-19. It is not incurable disease.

Multiple people have made that claim in this very thread. lomiller implied exactly that by talking about immunity to H1N1 and claiming that there may be no such protection for COVID-19.

here are a few news articles:
'The attack rate is relatively high as there's no immunity to it.'...
Differences between COVID-19 and flu? We have no immunity or vaccine for the new virus, local expert says

 

[The Atheist]

Um, not unless about a quarter of the World's population happens to be 13 years old.

I must have missed a zero. Doing calculations at that minute level it's easy to miss one or add one.

This guy is really claiming that the vast vast majority of infection is coming from touching your face, and that you should be very safe out buying your food or going about your business if you don't touch your face.

Singing my song.

But then talks about keeping social distancing. It seems like social distancing is to keep peoples' lungs from giving this to you

Seems mutually contradictory

Not really.

Even if me & he are right and the vast majority of cases are hand-face, you still don't want some pig coughing or sneezing in your face, because you're highly likely it will infect you. Although unless you were wearing goggles as well, I doubt a mask will help you much in that scenario.

A further 563 patients with coronavirus have died in the UK yesterday, taking the total number of deaths in hospitals to 2,352.

Monday it was 380 people died. It's speeding up.

You're on a very Italian growth curve there - I hope the belated shutdown enables you to miss the worst of it.
___________________________

Meanwhile, the first million confirmed cases will be passed tomorrow, by the looks, as the logarithmic growth shows a definite sign of slowing. India may put a stop to that...

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think you have to remember that is the individual isolation within the household. Other members of the household have to isolate for 14 days then if they get symptoms in that time they go into seven days isolation. Even once one is out of isolation social distancing rules still apply so there is minimal contact outside of your household.

So you can go back to your house and infect grandma after 7 days past the onset of symptoms?

I do expect Prince C will still avoid contact with his Mum.

 

[dudalb]

Daily Mail: Florida now under statewide lockdown.

"Ron,summer is over. You are now Governor of the State of Covid 19".

 

[crescent]

Multiple people have made that claim in this very thread. lomiller implied exactly that by talking about immunity to H1N1 and claiming that there may be no such protection for COVID-19.

here are a few news articles:
'The attack rate is relatively high as there's no immunity to it.'...
Differences between COVID-19 and flu? We have no immunity or vaccine for the new virus, local expert says

I think this is just some unclear reporting.

1: The human population has no prexisting antibodies for this disease - so there is no pre-existing "immunity". Everybody who gets exposed needs to develop a new set of antibodies to deal with it.

2: But - some of those people develop the antibodies fast enough to fight off the virus before they have any symptoms. Some reports are describing such people as "immune".

3: And - most people who have survived the disease and who have destroyed all the virus in their system now have sufficient antibodies to destroy the virus before they can get sick again. They too are "immune". But they were not immune until after they developed the antibodies resulting from the initial infection.

TD/DR: Different definitions of "immune" are being tossed around inconsistently.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The masks were not designed for keeping viruses out. Surgical masks are for the benefit of the patient, not the surgeon. So all these masks volunteers are sowing are useless unless worn by sick people coughing.

For asymptomatic individuals, wearing a mask of any
type is not recommended. Wearing medical masks
when they are not indicated may cause unnecessary
cost and a procurement burden and create a false
sense of security that can lead to the neglect of other
essential preventive measures. For additional
information, see Advice on the use of masks in the
community, during home care and in healthcare
settings in the context of the novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) outbreak (8).

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331215/WHO-2019-nCov-IPCPPE_use-2020.1-eng.pdf

Staff fitted for n95 mask had somewhat fewer cases of illness in 2008/2009 study of two diseases.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00198.x

Thanks for the links.

One must consider the 'don't wear a mask if you are well' is based on a shortage of masks and the limited rationale of preventing one's own infection.

If everyone wore masks in public, the transmission rate should decrease significantly. Hand washing is still important. This is because the mask prevents infected people with no symptoms from spreading the virus.

Given the shortage of masks, the US recommendation remains that distancing is more important. But saying the masks if worn by everyone has no benefit is dishonest IMO. It might be reasonable at the moment, but giving such not quite honest guidelines will do damage to trusting science in the long run.

 

[lomiller]

Is it really as high as 80% of people infected are "asymptomatic". I thought it was that 80% had a "mild" infection, meaning that it will be self-limiting and won't require medical treatment.

Some have asymptomatic infections apparently, but is it really that high?

People be infected for 10 days or more before they notice any symptoms but could spread the virus sooner. If the persons immune system fights off the virus before this point, they may never know they were infected or they may just think it’s a mild cold. These people probabaly would not be tested at this point so there is no good data on how many of these are occurring.

It’s a very rough guess, with many flaws consider the infection to mortality rate on the Diamond Princess was a little over 1%. It’s been estimated that once you adjust for age and lag time the infection to death rate would be about 0.6%, but Italy is an aging country where the rate would be higher. If we take a round number of 1% it implies that the real number of infections in Italy is ~1.3 million more that 10X the number of cases Italy has documented.

 

[Planigale]

So you can go back to your house and infect grandma after 7 days past the onset of symptoms?

I do expect Prince C will still avoid contact with his Mum.

I think the concept is you will already have exposed your household contacts. Your contacts are in isolation for 14 days, if they develop symptoms then they are in isolation for seven days. You are in isolation from the household for seven days. But you cannot freely socialise after that time you are still socially distancing. No association outside of the household (at least not within 2 metres).

This is not something to which anyone has the correct answer.

FWIW I would probably argue for seven days from resolution of symptoms but sadly I am not world dictator and my opinion has no force.

 

[Andy_Ross]

A woman has been fined for breaching coronavirus restrictions after she refused to tell police who she was and why she was at a railway station.

Marie Dinou, 41, from York, was arrested at Newcastle Central Station at 08:00 GMT on Saturday.
North Tyneside Magistrates' Court imposed a £660 fine under the Coronavirus Act 2020 on Monday.
Dinou, who did not enter a plea, was also ordered to pay a victim surcharge of £66 and costs of £85.
British Transport Police assistant chief constable Sean O'Callaghan said enforcement of the new legislation was a last resort.
"In this case, officers tried their utmost best to engage with Dinou.
"I can assure you we would much rather not have to take such action."
People risk committing an offence if they appear to be breaching restrictions laid out in the emergency legislation and fail to give a reasonable excuse when challenged.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-52121216

There is some controversy over this. Police don't actually have any extra legal powers. British Transport Police do have powers under the Railways Act that other forces don't have.
Police are using existing 'public order', 'obstruction' and 'breach of the peace' laws to enforce things.

 

[JeanTate]

From the CDC: "Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020" (link).

NPR article on this report: "Who's Sickest From COVID-19? These Conditions Tied To Increased Risk" (link).

Yes, it's preliminary; yes, quite a few limitations.

Here are some snippets I found important and relevant (my bold):

"Among 122,653 U.S. COVID-19 cases reported to CDC as of March 28, 2020, 7,162 (5.8%) patients had data available pertaining to underlying health conditions or potential risk factors; among these patients, higher percentages of patients with underlying conditions were admitted to the hospital and to an ICU than patients without reported underlying conditions. These results are consistent with findings from China and Italy, which suggest that patients with underlying health conditions and risk factors, including, but not limited to, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, COPD, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic renal disease, and smoking, might be at higher risk for severe disease or death from COVID-19 (3,4). This analysis was limited by small numbers and missing data [...]" (Discussion section)

"It is not yet known whether the severity or level of control of underlying health conditions affects the risk for severe disease associated with COVID-19. Many of these underlying health conditions are common in the United States: based on self-reported 2018 data, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among U.S. adults was 10.1% (7), and the U.S. age-adjusted prevalence of all types of heart disease (excluding hypertension without other heart disease) was 10.6% in 2017 (8). The age-adjusted prevalence of COPD among U.S. adults is 5.9% (9), and in 2018, the U.S. estimated prevalence of current asthma among persons of all ages was 7.9% (7)." (ditto)

Another NPR article points out an important implication: "Underlying Health Disparities Could Mean Coronavirus Hits Some Communities Harder" (link). Perhaps this might be characterized as "a downside of diversity"?

 

[Planigale]

The first definition from a medical dictionary disagrees with your statement. 1. being highly resistant to a disease because of the formation of humoral antibodies or the development of immunologically competent cells, or both, or as a result of some other mechanism, as interferon activities in viral infections.

Yes, as I said you don't understand. The definition from the dictionary says nothing about your comprehension of the concept, which is what I was referring to. So you obviously do not understand immunity, my comment that you do not understand immunity nor the fact that the dictionary makes no reference to my statement about your comprehension.

Immunity only develops as a consequence of an initial infection. The 'highly resistant' to a disease applies to a subsequent infection. You seldom get measles or chickenpox more than once because of immunity. It is the subsequent infection you are highly resistant to.

 

[lomiller]

Multiple people have made that claim in this very thread. lomiller implied exactly that by talking about immunity to H1N1 and claiming that there may be no such protection for COVID-19.

here are a few news articles:
'The attack rate is relatively high as there's no immunity to it.'...
Differences between COVID-19 and flu? We have no immunity or vaccine for the new virus, local expert says

That’s not what I said. You can get some level of resistance to a virus from having contracted a similar virus or a virus that functions in a similar way. The theory I referred to is that people a previous H1N1 strain had circulated that was similar enough to the 2009 version that they had some resistance built in, while younger people were reliant of their immune systems response to a completely new virus. This would explain why the abnormally high ratio of young healthy adults that died in 2009.

My guess (and it’s no more than a guess) is that the rapid spread of COVID 19 is in part due to no one having been afforded any immunity from a similar enough virus so everyone's immune system is starting at square 1 fighting COVID 19.

 

[Arcade22]

Immunity only develops as a consequence of an initial infection. The 'highly resistant' to a disease applies to a subsequent infection. You seldom get measles or chickenpox more than once because of immunity. It is the subsequent infection you are highly resistant to.

There are different kinds of immunity:

Innate immunity, also called native immunity, exists by virtue of an organisms constitution, that is its genetic make-up, without an external stimulation or a previous infection. It is divided into two types: (a) Non-Specific innate immunity, a degree of resistance to all infections in general. (b) Specific innate immunity, a resistance to a particular kind of microorganism only. As a result, some races, particular individuals or breeds in agriculture do not suffer from certain infectious diseases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunity_(medical)

It is certainly not rare for organisms to develop trough evolution a inherit immunity towards certain viral or bacterial infections, or at least the diseases they cause.

 

[Capsid]

There are different kinds of immunity:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunity_(medical)

It is certainly not rare for organisms to develop trough evolution a inherit immunity towards certain viral or bacterial infections, or at least the diseases they cause.

Inherent or inherit? Name one disease where this happens. I don’t get infected by tobacco mosaic virus but that’s not immunity.


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[quadraginta]

Well that's scary as hell https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/aircraft-carrier-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html

Aircraft Carrier with coronavirus spreading through it

A while back in these threads I offered the observation that naval vessels like aircraft carriers were just as much examples of giant floating Petri dishes as cruise ships.

Said observation was rebuffed with a certain amount of derision, because military ships were somehow a different case because of reasons which were not entirely convincing to me. But I dropped the subject.

Now the Captain of an aircraft carrier wants to disembark 4,000 people (80% of the crew) onto the island of Guam.

Guam is not particularly enthused by this prospect.