Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[lomiller]

Is there any way to tell if other countries are also seeing that 80% mild, 20% need the hospital thing? The worldmeters site makes it look drastically different between countries, but medcram makes it sound like its universal

20% mild sounds right but IIRC only 20% of the serious cases require hospitalization. Number of deaths, if they are counted properly, could turn out to be the best real estimate of infection rates. Testing enough to catch all the asymptomatic cases may not be feasible.

 

[angrysoba]

Except that the time to respond to a crisis is not when it reaches the tipping point.

 

[Marcus]

First, it's not a guess. Flu vaccine is based on circulating strains every 6 months, once for the southern and once for the northern hemisphere.

Yes, the strains can mutate in between vaccine decisions and vaccine production. The vaccine efficacy varies but sometimes lessens the illness if not preventing it.

It's off topic and a very complicated subject. There have been few years (if any) the vaccine had no effect at all.

Not completely off topic as this brings up the future of covid vaccination. It supposedly mutates slower than flu viruses, doesn't that mean that in future years the covid vaccination would be more effective?

 

[lomiller]

I hadn't heard of a cruise ship of 3500. Did they follow up on all 3500 to give us infection/death/asymtpmatic/immune rates? I'd love to see that data.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256


Estimates a case to fatality rate in China of 1.2% and an infection to fatality rate of 0.6% based on time adjustment and age adjustment of the cases on the Diamond Princess.

 

[casebro]

I second take the Covid denial crop in this thread to the Conspiracy section where it belongs.

Can you show us a sample of Covid denial in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "there is no covid". Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't deem to recall any.

I suspect those saying "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die" to be the ones buying in to a CT.

 

[casebro]

Utter nonsense. They tested contacts widely and have completed 50 times more tests than infected cases.

On the numbers SK is testing infections would be showing up if they exist.

I'm sorry the facts aren't supporting you.
....

Geeze, have you lernt nuthing from this site re statistics? A study suffering from that much selection bias is worthless. Oh, the tests were not, but as far as the overall disease rates, worthless. It's like testing only people with sniffles to see if they have a cold, then pronouncing that "100% of people have colds".

 

[Pixel42]

Can you show us a sample of Covid denial in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "there is no covid". Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't deem to recall any.

I suspect those saying "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die" to be the ones buying in to a CT.

Can you show us a sample of that in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die". Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't seem to recall any.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

[qimg]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUfVEoVXsAIEe0e.jpg[/qimg]

I'm stealing this.

 

[casebro]

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256


Estimates a case to fatality rate in China of 1.2% and an infection to fatality rate of 0.6% based on time adjustment and age adjustment of the cases on the Diamond Princess.

THHANK YOU very much.I never knew the Diamond Princess had that many passengers, or tested that many. All I ever hear was that 250 that tested + were in quarantined at the dock.

Looks like, after two weeks plus of casual exposure, 10% caught it, probably across age groups proportionate to the population. All deaths were in the "over 70s".

I get .4% death rate overall, which is un-neccessarily broad. Better to state it as 0% under 70yo, and (more maths) over 70. What % of Diamind Princess population was over 70?

eta, the only stratification of the ages of the population on board, that I found, is that the mean age was 58. So, Risk of death of those under 58, .4%. Of those over 58, .8%. It sucks to be me, at 67. But even I have a 99.2 percent chance of survival.

Now there will be those who tell us how many 2 years old will die, to whom I say " Argument firm Emotions".

 

[lomiller]

Can you show us a sample of Covid denial in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "there is no covid". Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't deem to recall any.

I suspect those saying "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die" to be the ones buying in to a CT.

Denying the seriousness of the situation is also COVID denial, and unlike "we are all going to die" the seriousness of COVID is being argued in this thread.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

I've been remiss about posting ignorant questions lately, and I need to start up again. Today's question is:
It appears that the DC area is start to ramp up the infection rate. Given that most restaurants, stores, and theaters have been closed for more than 2 weeks, I'm wondering who those who have recently been infected are. Is it primarily:
1) people who are still required to work in a public environment (health care facility, grocery store, warehouse, package delivery service, utility company, etc.)?
2) people doing necessary things like grocery shopping?
3) people who are continuing to go to places where they are crowded together (e.g., beaches, parties [despite being illegal, parties with as many as 60 participants are still taking place])?
4) family members or roommates of people who are infected but aren't sick enough to be hospitalized?
5) random people because almost no one can stay at least 6 feet from everyone else all the time?

 

[JeanTate]

I hadn't heard of a cruise ship of 3500. Did they follow up on all 3500 to give us infection/death/asymtpmatic/immune rates? I'd love to see that data.

SK only tested subjects self-selected with symptoms, so no population wide data there. I don't know how they chose who got tested in Germany.

We get many sets of Xmany tests, Y many positives, Z many hospialization A many deaths, but no "B many negatives out of C many people. We just have not gotten any data sets the we can use to extrapolate to XYZ per 100,000 without pulling numbers out of someobdy's dark region. That is why the XZYs are all over the map.

The WP page on the Diamond Princess says it has a capacity of 2670 pax and 1100 crew.

Not only are the demographics of pax and crew quite different (e.g. no young kids or over 70s among crew), but the environments are too (e.g. many crew share a cabin with bunk beds, not so many pax do).

Further, I suspect that the distributions of relevant “underlying medical conditions”*, pax and crew, are quite different from that of the general US population, say. Which is different from that of the Wuhan expats (subject of the Lancet paper DG indirectly cited). And certainly different from that of the population of Chennai, say, or the island of Java.

*i.e. those which seem to make you particularly likely to put you into an ICU if you get covid-19. I’ll post more on this later.

 

[lomiller]

I get .4% death rate overall, which is un-neccessarily broad.

I assume you mean 0.4% of the people on the ship? If so, remember that 0.4% of the US population is still 1.4 million dead, and there were efforts on the diamond princess to keep the virus from spreading. If little or no effort is made to contain the virus it's reasonable to expect a higher number.

 

[lomiller]

*i.e. those which seem to make you particularly likely to put you into an ICU if you get covid-19. I’ll post more on this later.

Anecdotal, but I've heard a Toronto are ICU physician say that 2/3 of the people who end up in their ICU from COVID die from it.

 

[JeanTate]

I assume you mean 0.4% of the people on the ship? If so, remember that 0.4% of the US population is still 1.4 million dead, and there were efforts on the diamond princess to keep the virus from spreading. If little or no effort is made to contain the virus it's reasonable to expect a higher number.

More: cruise ship pax and crew almost certainly have ~zero people with some of the worrying “underlying medical conditions”, such as those on dialysis, or children with leukemia. And likely considerably lower %-ages of several others, e.g. BMI>40, emphysema.

 

[Arcade22]

I'd take that bet. I'd guarantee the numbers are higher than official cases, but 100 times more seems highly unlikely.

Quite amazing how divergent scientists are on this.

Use the wisdom of the crowd.

I used google translate and where it said "The calculations are based on the fact that between half a million and one million Swedes are currently infected." It should not say fact rather it should say assumption.

There's no general public testing of Corona virus infections in Sweden. As of today there are 4 947 official confirmed people who have been infected, of which 239 have died, but basically only people who are in need of emergency care and those in certain professions are being tested as of right now.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Singapore officially not wearing masks. The advice is wear masks if feeling unwell, if well no mask.

Taiwan are wearing masks and many office buildings won't let you in without one.

Thanks, you are right. I checked with my friend there and he said a few, but not the majority.

 

[JesseCuster]

Can you show us a sample of Covid denial in this thread? Just one of a poster saying "there is no covid". Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't deem to recall any.

Denial doesn't necessarily involve refusing to acknowledge the existence of a problem, it can and regularly involves refusing to acknowledge the extent or seriousness of a problem.

I suspect those saying "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die" to be the ones buying in to a CT.

Can you show us a sample of "Covid is going to cause the end of civilization as we know it, we are all going to die" in this thread? Just one of a poster saying that. Paraphrases accepted. Because I don't seem to recall any. (edit: beaten to it)

 

[marting]

On the quoted doctor's 0.0006% chance of dying, I make that almost 10,000 dead 13 year-olds around the world.

Um, not unless about a quarter of the World's population happens to be 13 years old.

 

[JesseCuster]

Statistics are quite often unhelpful.

On the quoted doctor's 0.0006% chance of dying, I make that almost 10,000 dead 13 year-olds around the world.

Umm, 0.0006% of the world's population is only about 50,000 people. Where did that figure come from? (edit: Beaten to it again)