Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[DevilsAdvocate]

Fucie projecting 100 Thousand deaths in the US is a best case scenario.
My god. That is more then US Casualaties in every war since World War 2 combined.

That seems about right. Influenza kills about 40,000 people per year in the United States. So 80-120 thousand would be about 2-3 times that number for a similar widespread virus with no vaccine.

 

[Roboramma]

No doubt wearing a mask is not sufficient to prevent transmission. No me thing is, even isolation as you still need food sent in somehow. But as with washing hands or keeping a distance or wiping down fomites, it is ONE extra thing that could REDUCE transmission and works best when encourage with the correct education about how to use them. Telling people NOT to wear them and saying they are useless is the wrong message.

This.

 

[Roboramma]

Well, this isn't good:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/sicken-thy-neighbor-trade-policy.html

A number of countries have imposed export bans on medical equipment. This is a natural, knee-jerk, reaction but a mistake for two reasons. First, no country in the world produces everything it needs. An export ban imposed by one country benefits that country but when all countries ban exports, it’s likely that no country is better off and all are worse off. A prisoner’s dilemma.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|

844​

|

17​

|
Alberta|

621​

|

2​

|
Saskatchewan|

134​

|

0​

|
Manitoba|

70​

|

1​

|
Ontario|

1,355​

|

19​

|
Quebec|

2,840​

|

22​

|
New Brunswick|

66​

|

0​

|
Nova Scotia|

122​

|

0​

|
Prince Edward Island|

11​

|

0​

|
Newfoundland and Labrador|

135​

|

0​

|
Yukon|

4​

|

0​

|
Northwest Territories|

1​

|

0​

|
Nunavut|

0​

|

0​

|
Repatriated travellers|

13​

|

0​

|
Total |

6,258​

|

61​

|

Using numbers from this table, confirmed cases are up 15% from yesterday (from 5,425); deaths are up by 1 (from 60.)


The latest points covered by CBC News

• 1.6 million Canadians have applied for employment insurance.
• Trudeau announces funding for Canadians young and old who are struggling to cope
• Foreign Affairs confirms Canadian died in Brazil 'after falling ill on a cruise.'
• Top public health officer says coming week a crucial period in COVID-19 struggle
• Nunavik-wide curfew in effect after first case of COVID-19 (Nunuvik is an area in the northern part of Québec)
• 99-year-old West Vancouver man recovers from COVID-19 in retirement home
• How the COVID-19 pandemic is 'driving innovation' in Canada and around the world

Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|

155​

|
2020-03-16|

440​

|

183.9%​

|
2020-03-18|

656​

|

49.1%​

|
2020-03-19|

873​

|

33.1%​

|
2020-03-20|

926​

|

6.1%​

|
2020-03-21|

1,081​

|

16.7%​

|
2020-03-22|

1,471​

|

36.1%​

|
2020-03-23|

2,091​

|

42.1%​

|
2020-03-24|

2,792​

|

33.5%​

|
2020-03-25|

3,409​

|

22.1%​

|
2020-03-26|

4,043​

|

18.6%​

|
2020-03-27|

4,689​

|

16.0%​

|
2020-03-28|

5,425​

|

15.7%​

|
2020-03-29|

6,258​

|

15.4%​

|

This is the sixth day in a row that the growth rate has slowed, but only by a fraction of a percentage point. There's a similar table on Wikipedia (see article) that shows a 19% increase yesterday and only a 10% increase today. However, I suspect the article's number of cases is as of 11:59 PM on the date recorded, while the numbers I'm using are as of whatever time I refresh the page the government updates its web page, since those are the numbers I'm using.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.7 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.7 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.7 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests|

210,435​

|

1,830,785​

|

896,900​

|

1:4.3​

|

1:4.3​

|
COVID-19 cases|

6,268​

|

54,531​

|

142,226​

|

1:23​

|

1:22​

|
COVID-19 deaths|

61​

|

531​

|

2,493​

|

1:41​

|

1:37​

|

Perhaps because it's Sunday, the testing ratio between Canada and the US remains steady at 1:4.3. I'm expecting the ratio to go higher tomorrow, then start to take off as new tests and the people needed to do them become available. When the ratio hits 1:8.7 the USA will be testing as many people per 1,000,000 population as Canada.

The ratio gap for cases widened a little bit, but the gap for deaths has jumped, which is quite disheartening.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The tiny amount of aerosol virus from vomiting can be pretty much ignored. Certainly being in the way of droplets will get you. Norovirus incidents in restaurants & aeroplanes show that it's spread by droplets, not in aerosol form.

I'll grant the toilet will create aerosol particles, but I don't think it would be all that unusual to shut it when flushing.

Hospital toilets don't have lids.

Vomiting linked to airborne norovirus, hospital outbreaks

“This study provides additional evidence that airborne [norovirus] can be present in concentrations that are high enough to cause infections, and in particle size fractions that remain airborne for long periods and are easily inhaled,” Alsved and colleagues wrote. ...

...To do so, they repeatedly sampled the air near 26 hospitalized patients with norovirus infection and analyzed the samples for norovirus RNA by reverse-transcription quantitative PCR, according to the study. They recorded patients’ most recent episodes of vomiting and diarrhea, and performed size-separating aerosol particle collection in ward corridors.

In total, 21 (24%) of 86 air samples from 10 patients tested positive for norovirus RNA — all 21 of them having been collected during outbreaks, or before a succeeding outbreak, according to Alsved and colleagues.

When a staff members vomits in the food prep area you have to close down the kitchen, throw out any food that isn't covered and scrub the whole place down before you can use the kitchen again. Infection control 101.

Sources of Airborne Norovirus in Hospital Outbreaks

Conclusions
The results suggest that recent vomiting is the major source of airborne norovirus and imply a connection between airborne norovirus and outbreaks. The presence of norovirus RNA in submicrometre particles indicates that airborne transmission can be an important transmission route.

 

[gypsyjackson]

I wonder if cooking them in a dutch oven at 175 degree or even 200 degrees for an hour would kill them germs and make them re-usable? No matter.

Is enclosed farting a viable solution to the problem?

 

[Sherkeu]

Well, this isn't good:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/sicken-thy-neighbor-trade-policy.html

The asian countries already know that parallel traders (called Daigou) are a problem when demand in China is high. These are basically smuggling rings that exploit loopholes to make a profit for desired goods in China.

Mostly it is luxury goods avoiding tariffs but any product is vulnerable.
There has been a huge problem with this with baby formula going on for years now- Hong Kong and Australia had big problems keeping stock available for locals.
Restrictions to export were needed, but a lot is smuggled anyway.
For Coronavirus, some countries were cleared of their stock of protective/disinfectant/medical items and it was sent back to China by these 'exporters'. This is the type of thing that needs to be watched.

If you are at a point where you are calling automakers to make medical machines, you really need to watch the current stock that might be going out the back door.

One mask maker in Taiwan made their masks with a design of the Taiwanese flag. Clever!

 

[angrysoba]

For Japan watchers, there is a sad update on this story...

By the way, also on the Japan front, one of Japan's most famous comedians (your wife is sure to know who he is), Ken Shimura, has tested positive for COVID-19 and now has pneumonia. At 70, he's pretty high risk.

This is a sample of his comedy which may be somewhat intelligible to non-Japanese-speakers:

No! No! Not Shimura Ken!

Ken Shimura, a veteran slapstick comedian and a one-time member of rock and roll band and comedy group the Drifters, a household name in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s, died of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus Sunday, his agency said Monday. He was 70.

Shimura was hospitalized on March 20 after developing a fever and being diagnosed with severe pneumonia. He tested positive for the virus on March 23, becoming the first Japanese entertainment figure to announce their infection.

Link to Mainichi article

 

[The Atheist]

Hospital toilets don't have lids.

Really? That's awe-inspiringly crazy to me. Toilets in NZ hospitals do.

Vomiting linked to airborne norovirus, hospital outbreaks

From your link:

they repeatedly sampled the air near 26 hospitalized patients with norovirus infection and analyzed the samples for norovirus...

In total, 21 (24%) of 86 air samples from 10 patients tested positive for norovirus RNA

"Near"? That's a good, scientific term. How near? And then only 24% of the time?

I'll change my opinion when I see some solid evidence to the contrary of a wealth of real-world evidence that doesn't support the idea that it forms an infectious aerosol. Having droplets "near" someone who's power-vomiting wouldn't be all that surprising, and the corridors are explained by feet.

Yes, it can happen, but apart from open toilets or sitting right next to someone vomiting, airborne norovirus can be more or less ignored.

Which segues nicely back to the subject - all the clusters of Covid-19 I've seen evidence of look far more like a norovirus-style spread than someone sneezing.

NZ's latest cluster is in Matamata, home of the Hobbits. 15 people at the same party contracted Covid-19, yet nobody who sat next to an infected bloke at a concert for three hours got it.

I'm not doubting it spreads in the air - people sneezing & coughing create a cloud you wouldn't want to breathe, but I'm certain the hand -> mouth/nose/eyes is a much bigger problem.

 

[The Atheist]

One mask maker in Taiwan made their masks with a design of the Taiwanese flag. Clever!

Yeah, that is smart. You wouldn't want to try walking around Beijing in one.

 

[Giordano]

Hm.

I wonder if cooking them in a dutch oven at 175 degree or even 200 degrees
for an hour would kill them germs and make them re-usable? No matter.


P. S. Do you speak Korean?



For some strange reason Again Boss has become my favorite soap opera.
Then again, I might be going insane from being shut in my home all day.

The trick is to be certain the treatment doesn’t break down the filtration qualities of the mask.

 

[Giordano]

Yeah, that is smart. You wouldn't want to try walking around Beijing in one.

I think masks should be brightly color coded, eg purple for medical personnel, to avoid black market hoarding,

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Really? That's awe-inspiringly crazy to me. Toilets in NZ hospitals do.

Vomiting linked to airborne norovirus, hospital outbreaks

From your link:

"Near"? That's a good, scientific term. How near? And then only 24% of the time?

I'll change my opinion when I see some solid evidence to the contrary of a wealth of real-world evidence that doesn't support the idea that it forms an infectious aerosol. Having droplets "near" someone who's power-vomiting wouldn't be all that surprising, and the corridors are explained by feet.

Oh for pity's sake. The speed and extent with which norovirus spreads is in itself a suggestion of airborne transmission.

Yes, it can happen, but apart from open toilets or sitting right next to someone vomiting, airborne norovirus can be more or less ignored.

Well we don't ignore it in infection control.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet...na-norovirus.htm-l~cda-cdna-norovirus.htm-l-8

Masks
Noroviruses are highly infectious and a small number of particles in aerosolised vomit can cause infection. A mask (surgical type, fluid repellent paper filter mask) should be worn when there is potential for aerosol dissemination. This may occur when attending a vomiting person or cleaning areas or surfaces that are visibly contaminated by vomit or faeces. Surgical face masks provide sufficient protection against droplet transmission of noroviruses. During outbreaks, staff attending vomiting patients or cleaning areas contaminated by vomit or faeces should use surgical masks or other respiratory protection to prevent infection, as this can significantly reduce subsequent illness in staff [63].

That doesn't say only when close to a person actively vomiting.

Which segues nicely back to the subject - all the clusters of Covid-19 I've seen evidence of look far more like a norovirus-style spread than someone sneezing.

NZ's latest cluster is in Matamata, home of the Hobbits. 15 people at the same party contracted Covid-19, yet nobody who sat next to an infected bloke at a concert for three hours got it.

I'm not doubting it spreads in the air - people sneezing & coughing create a cloud you wouldn't want to breathe, but I'm certain the hand -> mouth/nose/eyes is a much bigger problem.

When did I say anything about aerosols being the main mechanism of transmission? Perhaps you think if a person says X is airborne it precludes other means of transmission. That's as silly as claiming droplet spread excludes contact spread.

Why are you putting this argument out there sources of transmission that aren't the "main means" don't matter?

 

[psionl0]

Pandemics are a lot easier to deal with when you can reduce people down to numbers.

This "Numberphile" video shows how to model the spread of nCov and demonstrates the importance of containment measures.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think masks should be brightly color coded, eg purple for medical personnel, to avoid black market hoarding,

So medical personnel can't wear their masks off duty?

What about people with serious medical risk factors that have to go to a clinic for lab work and to get meds from the pharmacy that are part of a hospital like some of Kaiser's clinics?

 

[lionking]

It looks like the reduction in daily infections in Victoria and New South Wakes has started.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...e/news-story/3d6310f3fe0c220c8e403b366654b64b

Two graphs tracking the daily number of coronavirus cases in New South Wales and Victoria show we could be winning the battle against coronavirus.
The figures come after comments from federal and state authorities that tough new restrictions introduced nationwide last week – and that have since been upgraded – are proving effective in slowing the outbreak of the potentially deadly disease.

Might be a false dawn, but everybody seems to be doing the right thing, so another week of reductions and the worst could be over.

 

[The Atheist]

Oh for pity's sake. The speed and extent with which norovirus spreads is in itself a suggestion of airborne transmission.

My final word on this subject is you've proven my point for me. Your quote states:

Surgical face masks provide sufficient protection against droplet transmission of noroviruses. During outbreaks, staff attending vomiting patients or cleaning areas contaminated by vomit or faeces should use surgical masks or other respiratory protection to prevent infection, as this can significantly reduce subsequent illness in staff [63].

Note: surgical masks, which we've well and truly proven are useless against aerosols.

Aerosol spread is irrelevant.

Why are you putting this argument out there sources of transmission that aren't the "main means" don't matter?

I haven't said anywhere they don't matter with Covid-19 - I'm saying it's the minor means of transmission.

 

[rjh01]

It looks like the reduction in daily infections in Victoria and New South Wakes has started.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...e/news-story/3d6310f3fe0c220c8e403b366654b64b



Might be a false dawn, but everybody seems to be doing the right thing, so another week of reductions and the worst could be over.

I wonder where they got the data from? Not from where I get mine from.
For Victoria the numbers for 30/3 are the same as the numbers for 27/3 so no decrease. NSW is only slightly better.

How did they get the data for 30/3/20? I mean the day is not even over.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

My final word on this subject is you've proven my point for me. Your quote states:

Note: surgical masks, which we've well and truly proven are useless against aerosols.

Aerosol spread is irrelevant.

That doesn't mean ****. Nurses have been given surgical masks for airborne isolation for a century. Only in 1989 with a couple TB outbreaks in the US did anyone even notice said masks were never tested to verify they protected the workers.

Don't get me started, I don't have time to post all I know about the history of failure to protect health care workers from infectious disease hazards on the job. Notice they are telling nurses in many facilities to use "droplet precautions" with COVID. Notice how many health care workers are getting infected.

Notice also how many people are touting N95s for COVID. Why if it is droplet spread? According to you that's evidence it's airborne. Obviously that is not evidence.

Notice also you'd be very hard pressed to find a single study testing if N95s are protecting health care workers from COVID.


Believe me, the staff rarely avoids norovirus when it circulates.

I haven't said anywhere they don't matter with Covid-19 - I'm saying it's the minor means of transmission.

Minor is relative.

 

[Cheetah]

Might be a false dawn, but everybody seems to be doing the right thing, so another week of reductions and the worst could be over.

I doubt that, I honestly don't think it has really started yet.