2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Sherkeu]

If you find the ratio of deaths to recovered you will find that the probability of dying after taking a test compared to recovering is large. Much more than the 1 to 2% I hear people quoting.

Why is this? I will give you that it is quicker to die than to recover but even then that cannot account for such numbers. Or maybe only a small fraction of those who have the virus are actually tested.

There are big problems trying to parse the numbers given as the cycle from infection date to recovery is long. Usually 5-7 days to show symptoms, then another 10-14 to recover. Pulling data from a running tally means nothing.

For example, S. Korea has 50 deaths, 130 recovered. That's about a 28% chance of dying. But it obviously isnt true.

S Korea's 'Active' cases are 7,133, with persons in critical condition at just 36. That would say less than 0.5% chance of severe illness. Also not true since the actives could go critical at any time.

There's no way to know unless you test and track a large sample size and compute a number after that large set of patients have either died or recovered. Even then you will miss those who had mild or no symptoms (unless you blanket test)

I think Koreas numbers might show what it really is in a few weeks when their current cases have resolved. They did a lot of testing.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

My obligatory callous update..

All the people who have died in Italy were elderly or had other health complications, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica and the Associated Press reported.

This is why testing and remediation should focus on this demographic.

And not on who they are getting it from?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Gates-funded program will soon offer home-testing kits for new coronavirus



This is just what is needed. Good use for his Foundation. To date, it is estimated the CDC has performed less than 2000 tests.

I do cringe a bit when they say timing could depend on 'upgrading software'.

It's a positive step and has the potential to keep a lot of contagious people home.

It still ignores spread by asymptomatic persons. But that would become less of a problem as they develop symptoms. Still fewer people out there spreading it.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

And not on who they are getting it from?

Do you have to make a straw man out of everything I say?

You seem to be intelligent and informed ..
Why do you waste so much time attributing arguments to me, that I am not making?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Meanwhile, in Italy, selfish pigs rush to leave the affected area just before the quarantines take effect.

(Kudos to the pricks who leaked the quarantine rules before they took effect.)

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/08/pass...ape-mass-quarantine-16000000-people-12366530/

After all, it's very important to rush home to carry the virus to everyone you know isn't it?

Especially nonna and poppa.

Just like people fleeing Kinshasa as ebola quarantine was needed.

 

[calebprime]

Skeptical Greg, Skeptical Ginger, I suspect you two have a lot in common, really!

And aren't we all ships passing in the night, leaves blowing in the wind?

Who can say where we're going?

Skeptical Ginger has grown a lot in their ability to respect others' point-of-view, hasn't they?

It's all about empathy, people.

More than this. Show me something better.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Do you have to make a straw man out of everything I say?

You seem to be intelligent and informed ..
Why do you waste so much time attributing arguments to me, that I am not making?

It's not straw, it's a reply to your posts. If you focus on testing hi risk people what good is that going to do?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Skeptical Greg, Skeptical Ginger, I suspect you two have a lot in common, really!

And aren't we all ships passing in the night, leaves blowing in the wind?

Who can say where we're going?

Skeptical Ginger has grown a lot in their ability to respect others' point-of-view, hasn't they?

It's all about empathy, people.

More than this. Show me something better.

Ginger is a she, no worries. I am nothing like Greg and I'm not the only one pointing to the problems with his posts.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

It's not straw, it's a reply to your posts. If you focus on testing hi risk people what good is that going to do?

Well, I don't know... Maybe save their lives, since low risk people are not at risk for dying..

 

[Trebuchet]

I'm surprised that people are glossing over the multi-week stay in hospital...

So, Americans, if the test is going to cost you $3000, how much is a multi-week stay in the ICU going to cost you?

Are they insured? Medicare or Medicaid? Can you claim poverty so the hospital writes it off?
Worst case is probably to be lower middle class, no or poor insurance, middle aged, but you own a house. You may not own it long.
On the other hand, when I fell off the roof in 2012, visiting two ER's, two nights in ICU, two surgeries, 11 days at the biggest hospital in the state and five weeks in rehab; I was on my former employer's early retiree plan. Bills added up to a quarter million dollars. My out of pocket was around a grand.
Note that the billed amounts weren't anything like what the insurance actually paid. That's a feature of America's healthcare "system". Everybody bills at a rate of 3-6 times what they actually expect to get. And a few unfortunate souls wind up paying that much.

 

[Sherkeu]

It's a huge help in timing things. By the time someone shows up to hospital care, the person who gave it to them could have already recovered. This allows people who arent in need of hospital stays to test, and then any positives could go to their contacts very quickly- or even test whole households at the same time.
They could find many people who carry without symptoms this way.

eta: Plus, those who think they may have it shouldn't be out in hospital waiting rooms/doctors offices. Doing it by delivery is the best way if possible.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, I don't know... Maybe save their lives, since low risk people are not at risk for dying..

And given there is no treatment, how would that save their lives?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Are they insured? Medicare or Medicaid? Can you claim poverty so the hospital writes it off?
Worst case is probably to be lower middle class, no or poor insurance, middle aged, but you own a house. You may not own it long.
On the other hand, when I fell off the roof in 2012, visiting two ER's, two nights in ICU, two surgeries, 11 days at the biggest hospital in the state and five weeks in rehab; I was on my former employer's early retiree plan. Bills added up to a quarter million dollars. My out of pocket was around a grand.
Note that the billed amounts weren't anything like what the insurance actually paid. That's a feature of America's healthcare "system". Everybody bills at a rate of 3-6 times what they actually expect to get. And a few unfortunate souls wind up paying that much.

Medicare will take a big hit with this.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

And given there is no treatment, how would that save their lives?

That would mean your argument is to not test high risk individuals.. Why bother, they are going to die anyway..

 

[JeanTate]

That would mean your argument is to not test high risk individuals.. Why bother, they are going to die anyway..

Everyone is going to die anyway ...

 

[The Atheist]

Everyone is going to die anyway ...

According to Palmistry I died 24 years ago.

Mad cow disease/vCJD, I expect.

 

[novaphile]

Looking at the Johns Hopkins data, one thing becomes clear.

A lot of countries are not providing the deaths/recoveries data.

Some of the countries that are providing that data, look bad as a result.

Italy for example, 7,375 cases, 366 deaths, 622 recovered.
South Korea 7,314 cases, 50 deaths, 118 recovered.
Australia: 76 cases, 4 deaths, 21 recovered. (looks very good by comparison)

I'm wondering if this is because we haven't been overwhelmed yet?
Or the quality of care available?
Better overall health and nutrition due to relative wealth?
(That one seems crazy to me, because the Mediterranean diet is generally regarded to be very healthy).

(Usually the answers to these kind of questions all turn out to be a combination of 'all of the above' plus...)

I would be happier if Australia started to ramp up on measures to reduce the speed of the spread.

 

[a_unique_person]

Australia has a more dispersed and less concentrated population. That may be helping. Also, all doctors surgeries have been watching for coronavirus since this whole thing started. Anyone who is suspected to have the virus is being treated specially.

 

[Planigale]

There are big problems trying to parse the numbers given as the cycle from infection date to recovery is long. Usually 5-7 days to show symptoms, then another 10-14 to recover. Pulling data from a running tally means nothing.

For example, S. Korea has 50 deaths, 130 recovered. That's about a 28% chance of dying. But it obviously isnt true.

S Korea's 'Active' cases are 7,133, with persons in critical condition at just 36. That would say less than 0.5% chance of severe illness. Also not true since the actives could go critical at any time.

There's no way to know unless you test and track a large sample size and compute a number after that large set of patients have either died or recovered. Even then you will miss those who had mild or no symptoms (unless you blanket test)

I think Koreas numbers might show what it really is in a few weeks when their current cases have resolved. They did a lot of testing.

The other thing to remember is that deaths occur a week or more after onset of symptoms so current deaths have to be matched against the number infected a week earlier.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1521081/embed?auto=1

So looking at this graph the number of deaths 233 on 07/03 matches to cases a week earlier 29/02 which numbered 1128.

 

[The Atheist]

Australia has a more dispersed and less concentrated population. That may be helping. Also, all doctors surgeries have been watching for coronavirus since this whole thing started. Anyone who is suspected to have the virus is being treated specially.

It's at another school in NSW: https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...e-sydney/bffe367e-bd1a-4160-823c-c863ecd43e4a

It will be interesting to see if it takes off now it's established in Aussie.

If it does, that will be proof it's not seasonal. Timer set...