2012 Electoral College Predictions

[TheRedWorm]

If you decide to go, I have a forum I am a mod at to recommend to you.

Which one?

 

[BenBurch]

Which one?

I'll message you.

 

[TheRedWorm]

ok

 

[Baylor]

It appears Romney lost ground in FL after holding the RNC in FL

And I didn't watch the RNC but it seemed to be uninspired and hackneyed. Am I right?

Holy **** Obama got a huge surge over the weekened. Jesus Crotch. Looks like I won't be leaving the forum anytime soon.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[Baylor]

Now a 62% chance Obama will win FL. Up from 52% just a week ago. Looks like the nail in Romney's coffin has been hammered.

 

[Baylor]

I feel like I'm talking to myself here, but I'll add that Indiana is the only state that went blue last election that's now solid red. Other than that, it's shaping up to look like a mirror image of 2008. Of course, North Carolina is still swinging towards Romney, but with the DNC in Charlotte and massive momentum in Obama's direction, it could easily tilt back to blue anytime. Minus Indiana and you have a carbon copy of the 2008 Presidential election.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Definitely no Convention bounce for Romney.

 

[remirol]

FiveThirtyEight has some timely analysis here, as usual.

 

[BenBurch]

I wouldn't have bet on Romney imploding quite this soon.

In fact I predicted he would get to a +4 lead by today.

 

[remirol]

Think you're out a couple nickels, Ben. 15:30 left EDT though

 

[mikedenk]

And I didn't watch the RNC but it seemed to be uninspired and hackneyed. Am I right?

Gotta agree, it was pretty flat all the way through. Seems appropriate for the candidate: boring, stiff, playing not to lose rather than playing to win.

 

[mikedenk]

Holy **** Obama got a huge surge over the weekened. Jesus Crotch. Looks like I won't be leaving the forum anytime soon.

Would you leave because you would be quitting politics altogether?

Or because the conservatives' full-on gloat mode would drive you crazy?

 

[LarianLeQuella]

And I wonder if the Florida polls have yet reflected the selection of Ryan as running mate.

I am more concerned with the unlimited spending on these campaigns with the Super PACs. I believe that it has been shown that you can pretty much buy public opinion with adverts. Wasn't there a proposition in CA (a smoking one) that started off with 60-70% support, but then an advertising campaign swapped the vote so that the proposition lost 40/60? Not saying that it would have that big of an effect in presidential voting, but there may be an effect to be concerned about.

 

[Unabogie]

Romney gives up on PA and MI.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-gop-michigan-pennsylvania-pull-out.php?ref=fpa

What does that do to the EC predictions?

 

[Travis]

I am more concerned with the unlimited spending on these campaigns with the Super PACs. I believe that it has been shown that you can pretty much buy public opinion with adverts. Wasn't there a proposition in CA (a smoking one) that started off with 60-70% support, but then an advertising campaign swapped the vote so that the proposition lost 40/60? Not saying that it would have that big of an effect in presidential voting, but there may be an effect to be concerned about.

Most people were in support of it only until they actually read the proposition text.

 

[mikedenk]

Romney gives up on PA and MI.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-gop-michigan-pennsylvania-pull-out.php?ref=fpa

What does that do to the EC predictions?

Most people had written those states off for Obama from the beginning, so it won't change models much. PA was considered a borderline-battleground state at one time, and Michigan had a couple of polls recently that showed a close race, but they are both really long shots.

Bottom line: if Romney were to carry either of those states, they probably wouldn't make a difference since he would've won the overall election in a landslide anyways.

 

[DavidJames]

Most people had written those states off for Obama from the beginning...

I guess that means Romney was too stupid to stop spending money in those states. I guess your saying Romney isn't very good at deciding how to spend money wisely.

Thanks for your insight.

 

[mikedenk]

David, David, David... didn't you just recently have this to say?

nvm - I forgot I was responding to a POE.

And yet here you are, a few short days later, once again engaging the Poe Troll. What is up with liberals and poor impulse control?

I agree, however, that it wasn't a very good use of resources - particularly in Pennsylvania. Romney and his PACs are pretty flush though, I guess they thought they could afford to take some chances outside of the toss-ups. Using advertising to tighten a race can also potentially force the opponent to spend resources in a state they normally would've taken for granted.

 

[remirol]

There's a strong possibility that they expected Pennsylvania's Voter ID laws to contribute. With those being struck down everywhere, hopes look grim on that front.

 

[Unabogie]

David, David, David... didn't you just recently have this to say?




And yet here you are, a few short days later, once again engaging the Poe Troll. What is up with liberals and poor impulse control?

I agree, however, that it wasn't a very good use of resources - particularly in Pennsylvania. Romney and his PACs are pretty flush though, I guess they thought they could afford to take some chances outside of the toss-ups. Using advertising to tighten a race can also potentially force the opponent to spend resources in a state they normally would've taken for granted.

Yeah, this last part is true. But the fact that they are stopping is also a sign that it didn't work and they are cutting their losses.