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2012 Electoral College Predictions

My "best" case scenario for Romney.

Obama can lose FL and still win the election. Romney can't.
Obama can lose OH and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose VA and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose IA and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose NV and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose CO and still win the election. Romney can't

Obama is currently (8/28) projected to win all those states.

Romney has yet to lead in the polls. Even McCain held a brief lead.

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mikedenk said:
The assumption was made for the sake of argument - an Obama victory in Ohio or especially Florida would pretty much hand him the election.
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He can lose both those states and a few other "swing" states, and still win the election.
 
JoeTheJuggler said:
The most recent polls show Obama with a lead (3 or 4 pts) in Florida. The Rasmussen poll of Aug. 16th is the only one I see that gives Romney the lead there (by 2 pts).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Romney definitely has an uphill climb. Florida is must-win for him, and I wouldn't put money on him winning it.
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RCP is conservative. The only website I listen to regarding polls is fivethirtyeight.com.

I followed it closely as the 2008 presidential election unfolded. It's so accurate it's ridiculous.
 
The only "bad" analysis for Obama.

Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 93.3%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 17.8%
 
This is why the founding fathers were absolute geniuses. They set up an election process that was perfect for both history buffs and sports fans; in other words it's perfect for me. Who else would be smart enough to ditch a boring popular vote and instead come up with an actual exciting scoring system? It's absolutely brilliant and it makes watching elections like watching the Super Bowl.

I'll come back later with my predictions as we get closer to the election but right now I think I've got Obama winning by at least a touchdown, probably more. We'll see.
 
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remirol said:
This explains a lot, as usual: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/aug-27-michigan-isnt-a-tossup/

Short version: Mitchell himself is biased. :)
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It seems that Mitchell predicts a drop in turnout among black voters in Michigan, to 8% in 2012. Since a one-point decrease in black turnout virtually equals a one-point decrease in Obama's totals, this is obviously a prediction that makes a big difference. Mitchell seems pretty sure about this drop in enthusiasm, stating: "Having polled this state for 26 years, blacks have represented about 7%-8% of all votes cast in every statewide race. At best, it went to 9% four years ago. It will not reach that level this year.” Silver thinks Mitchell has incorrectly gauged the black turnout in 2008.

ETA: This looks confusing after a re-read. Mitchell is not predicting a big drop in turnout from 2008, he is saying (I think) that the exit polls from 2008 inflated the black turnout, therefore polls that currently use that 12% number are giving Obama 4-5 extra points.

As far as Romney carrying the state, it does seem like a really long shot - if the polls began getting too tight, the Obama campaign can divert money and people to ensure that turnout among his consituencies remains high. So the value for Romney may be just in forcing Obama to pay attention to a state that he normally wouldn't.
 
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EventHorizon said:
This is why the founding fathers were absolute geniuses. They set up an election process that was perfect for both history buffs and sports fans; in other words it's perfect for me. Who else would be smart enough to ditch a boring popular vote and instead come up with a scoring system? It's absolutely brilliant and it makes watching elections like watching the Super Bowl.

I'll come back later with my predictions as we get closer to the election but right now I think I've got Obama winning by at least a touchdown, probably more. We'll see.
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I'll be happy if it's just a safety! :-)
 
UNLoVedRebel said:
My "best" case scenario for Romney.

Obama can lose FL and still win the election. Romney can't.
Obama can lose OH and still win the election. Romney can't
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Pretty much yeah, I agree. The possiblity exists but is just extremely remote.

UNLoVedRebel said:
Obama can lose VA and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose IA and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose NV and still win the election. Romney can't
Obama can lose CO and still win the election. Romney can't
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Not so sure about these. Give Romney FL, OH, and NC, then give Obama WI, PA, and NH, leaving VA, IA, NV, and CO the undecided remainders.
- At this point, Romney can win by taking VA and any 1 of the 3 others, or by taking IA + NV + CO.
- Likewise, Obama would win by taking Virginia +1 or by taking IA + NV + CO.
 
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remirol said:
Nevermind. I can actually tell you at least one probable reason why: looking at the latest Quinnipiac poll (which was linked from the Ohio summary on the 538 site), two sets of figures jump out:

Q: Favorable opinion of Romney?
FL: 45% Yes, 42% No, 13% ??
OH: 39% Yes, 45% No, 15% ??WI: 44% Yes, 43% No, 13% ??

Q: Favorable opinion of Obama?
FL: 50% Yes, 45% No, 5% ??
OH: 51% Yes, 45% No, 5% ??
WI: 51% Yes, 45% No, 4% ??

Simply put: Ohioans don't like Romney. That's gonna make it hard for him to move the numbers in that state. Plus, he's actually lost ground compared to the prior poll in late July (see the link), where he was 40% Yes, 43% No, and 18% were undecided.

This is, of course, only a single poll and it's one that showed favorable results to Obama. But it might provide a bit of insight.
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If Romney doesn't take Ohio, that's the end for him. Period.

In other news, Nate Silver's latest EC map now has Florida leaning slightly towards President Obama, with Obama picking up momentum in the most recent polls. I find this surprising, given all the recent media coverage about the GOP convention and Romney. Of course, it is entirely likely that many Floridians have just tuned out politics altogether in light of Hurricane Isaac.
 
Tricky said:
According to CNN, North Carolina is now a toss-up. Latest poll shows Romney leads 48% to 47%, well within the polls error bars. Will holding the Democratic National Convention there push them to the lead? It's very possible.
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Is that the only poll showing that?

Nate Silver shows NC in Romney's favor 66% to 34%.

But if Obama starts to gain any sort of momentum in NC, that's a real danger sign for Romney and the GOP in general.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Is that the only poll showing that?

Nate Silver shows NC in Romney's favor 66% to 34%.

But if Obama starts to gain any sort of momentum in NC, that's a real danger sign for Romney and the GOP in general.
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The polls are surprisingly close. I think many people expected both Indiana and NC to easily swing back to the Republicans this year... Indiana looks like a pretty sure thing for Romney, but NC does not. Several different polls show a tight race.

Somewhat surprising given the recent results regarding Amendment 1 (gay marriage) in NC.
 
I will leave this forum if Romney wins.

Suicide by mod too. Not through some UncaYimmy leave and come back schnick
 
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