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200 plus oil

Then what exactly are these alternate sources that Obama wants to invest billions of $$$$ into that will get us off of foreign oil? ... if not nuclear?

PS: Personally, I think it impossible to get totally off of imported oil within 200 years. Maybe never.

Well, nuclear can't solve the problem as there is not enough industrial capacity on the planet and we just can't build them fast enough.

In about 50 years, with current oil consumption, we will be off fossil oil.

glenn
 
I can't speak for Obama but there's tonnes of ways to reduce oil consumption that do not necessarily involve nuclear power; you'd have to carefully sift through this mess to determine what might be cost-effective.

Solar space heating/hot water is quite affordable(no expensive silicon, just an array of evacuated glass tubes containing blackened/anodized inner tubes through which water can flow) and it can directly displace natural gas and oil.

Insulation and counter-current heat exchangers can directly reduce the amount of energy(oil, gas or otherwise) used in HVAC(if a home is made airtight and all ventilation goes through a counter-current heat exchanger you can recover over 90% of the energy loss from ventilation).

Electrified rail can directly replace oil used in diesel locomotives. Trains can directly replace trucks for transporting goods. Smaller cars can directly replace most big cars(check the price of SUVs; it's already happening on account of the recent high in oil price and price volatility/supply concerns. One way to ensure that it continues might be to put a price floor on oil and buy every barrel of oil below that, putting it into expanding the strategic reserve or puting an onerous tax on oil-based fuels like Europe).

To the extent that domestic natural gas production can be expanded or natural gas can be saved from other uses natural gas or natural gas derivatives(e.g. dimethylether, an excellent low-particulate, high efficiency diesel replacement. See Gas To Liquids, GTL) can be used for motor vehicles.

Biogas from anaerobic fermentation of crop wastes and manure can be used to expand the natural gas supply a little bit without puting much pressure on soil carbon(might not be worth transporting this gas off of the farm if it's not connected to a natural gas grid, but you can displace other fossil fuels used for drying corn, use it as an automotive fuel for farm equipment or put it through a small gas turbine and generate electricity so you don't have to pay the higher price of electricity during peak times or export electricity to the grid produce ammonia/urea locally if haber-bosch can be cost effectively scaled down etc.).

You can use black liquor from the paper industry to produce small amounts of DME or other valuable liquid fuels through gasification.

You can try to develop GM-plants that are specifically made more vulnerable to attack(e.g. produce enzymes required to break themselves down) such that the cellulose can be separated from lignin and turned into glucose for yeast or bacteria; you can try to develop higher yield yeast or bacteria that produce butanol instead of ethanol(butanol naturally floats to the surface at some concentration, requiring no distillation; less corrosive than ethanol. 15% gasoline + 85% butanol can be used in unmodified gasoline engines).

You can gamble some money on developing cheaper/better battery and high energy density ultra-capacitor technology(even if you're just going to use it with an ICE in a hybrid, the fact that you can run an engine/micro-turbine at it's peak efficiency with just enough power to coast at high-way speeds and use the battery to provide the oomphh for fast acceleration instead of having a hugely oversized ICE saves you a lot of gas; as does having ultra capacitors can easily recover most of breaking energy).

You can use a SOFC to recover energy and clean up VOCs(e.g. paint fumes at an auto-factory that you may not be allowed to just emit to the atmosphere).

You can try to develop a "smart-grid"(which would try to turn the electrical grid into more of a fully connected graph that can shuffle electricity from anywhere to anywhere to better soak up intermitent generation) with "smart appliances"(such as a freezer with embedded eutectic or phase change material that can defer electricity consumption to cheaper off-peak electricity and provide the electrical companies with the abillity to switch off your freezer or air conditioning for a few hours(at their expense) to deal with an emergency drop in generation until replacement sources come online).

You can gamble some money on trying to develop metallic carbon nanotube quantum-wires into a potentially cheaper replacement for aluminium and copper in electrical motors, in HVDC distribution systems(quantum wire has higher conductance along the wire and much lower conductance across it, absurd tensile strength and light weight); the natural first customer on the road to commercialisation is anything to do with space, because performance and weigth is much more important than cost to these people.

You can gamble some money on unlikely alternative approaches to fusion(a few million here and there to see if there's anything to it. E.g. focus fusion and polywell IEC).

You can encourage people to eat less meat or shift consumption towards chicken(much more efficient at converting grains into meat than cattle, sheep or pigs).

You can put a fuel consumption rating on food to encourage people to pick stuff produced closer to home(not just miles, because trucks are far more efficient than aircraft, trains and inland barges far more efficient than trucks, huge container ships far more efficient than trains). You can discourage fuel and water intense forms of low density organic agriculture. You can encourage the development of GM crops, either through industry or entirely patent and royalty free varieties produced entirely with public funding.

There's just an endless list of stuff to pick from(much of which won't make much sense if you examine it closely, I'm sure).

What you are proposing is not really going to make enough of a dent in the problem. The world needs to replace about 360 quads of fossil fuel use within about 50-100 years. It is going to take every form of energy available.

glenn

by the way replacing diesel trains with electrified rails actually uses more energy due the losses from the rankine cycle.
 
Didn't you just argue against nuclear reactors, in their not getting on-line until a good number of years?

No. As much as I like fission there are realistically many ways to reduce oil consumption.



How does that prevent the US's 104 currently operating nuclear reactors from cranking out cheap baseload electricity to the tune of one fifth of the US's electric supply?

FYI: the current schedule for new nuclear plants to come on line in the US is about 2016 or so.

glenn
 
What you are proposing is not really going to make enough of a dent in the problem. The world needs to replace about 360 quads of fossil fuel use within about 50-100 years.

That depends on what the goal is, dependency on foreign oil(and particularly unstable regions who's politics you'd rather be left out of), global warming or pollution(of the non-GHG kind).

If you don't care about oil imports, mitigating global warming is primarily a question of phasing out non-CCS coal power as soon as humanly possible and making sure oil sands, shale oil and methane clathrates stay were they are. Phasing out coal is definetly a job well suited for nuclear power but it does almost exactly nothing to get independent of foreign oil by itself.

by the way replacing diesel trains with electrified rails actually uses more energy due the losses from the rankine cycle.

That's OK, electric power is easy to make without oil and not as expensive(~3% of the US grid is powered by oil-fired generation; mostly islands, remote regions like Alaska).

Besides, how can that possibly be true? On the electrical-grid you could take the same amount of diesel and put it through a combined cycle gas turbine(brayton cycle turbine followed by a rankine bottoming cycle; typically run on natural gas but can be run on syngas or fuel oil) at up to 60% efficiency. Wouldn't that beat just about any ICE even when grid-losses are included? And don't most diesel trains use electrical transmission(Diesel ICE->Generator->Electrical traction motors; i.e. you already take the loss of converting to electrical power and back)?

With electrified rail you can use regenerative breaking and recover a good proportion of energy otherwise lost in breaking(probably insignificant if stops are few and far between)

FYI: the current schedule for new nuclear plants to come on line in the US is about 2016 or so.

That sounds about right; takes about 4 years for the NRC to process your application and about 4 years to build the plant after you get the go ahead(provided its not a first-of-a-kind reactor, that can take years longer).
 
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Besides, how can that possibly be true? On the electrical-grid you could take the same amount of diesel and put it through a combined cycle gas turbine(brayton cycle turbine followed by a rankine bottoming cycle; typically run on natural gas but can be run on syngas or fuel oil) at up to 60% efficiency. Wouldn't that beat just about any ICE even when grid-losses are included? And don't most diesel trains use electrical transmission(Diesel ICE->Generator->Electrical traction motors; i.e. you already take the loss of converting to electrical power and back)?
You keep ignoring the tens (hundreds?) of thousands of miles of new infrastructure that would need to be put in place, and the maintenance of said infrastructure. It would be incredibly expensive, and you've shown no evidence at all it would save one cent in the short or long term.

Diesel/electric locomotives, as it stands right now, are extremely efficient at hauling freight long distances. You've offered no reason so far to replace this with pure electric.

Is anyone using elecric trains to haul freight?
 
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Is anyone using elecric trains to haul freight?
Yes, of course.
http://www.transportation.siemens.com/ts/en/pub/products/lm/services/platforms/eurosprinter.htm

Also:
DSB_EG3108_2001.jpg
 
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That depends on what the goal is, dependency on foreign oil(and particularly unstable regions who's politics you'd rather be left out of), global warming or pollution(of the non-GHG kind).

If you don't care about oil imports, mitigating global warming is primarily a question of phasing out non-CCS coal power as soon as humanly possible and making sure oil sands, shale oil and methane clathrates stay were they are. Phasing out coal is definetly a job well suited for nuclear power but it does almost exactly nothing to get independent of foreign oil by itself.

In about 50 years or so, there won't be enough fossil fuel oil to supply the world. Production is going to start a downward slide soon--within 10 years I would estimate. Oil sands and shale oil are just too energy intensive to get much of a return and the infrastructure would take too long to build and solve any energy issues. Most of the energy is not recoverable.

To phase out coal in the US alone, we would need to build about 400 nuclear plants...that would almost double the world capacity. Obviously not likely to happen.


That's OK, electric power is easy to make without oil and not as expensive(~3% of the US grid is powered by oil-fired generation; mostly islands, remote regions like Alaska).

Besides, how can that possibly be true? On the electrical-grid you could take the same amount of diesel and put it through a combined cycle gas turbine(brayton cycle turbine followed by a rankine bottoming cycle; typically run on natural gas but can be run on syngas or fuel oil) at up to 60% efficiency. Wouldn't that beat just about any ICE even when grid-losses are included? And don't most diesel trains use electrical transmission(Diesel ICE->Generator->Electrical traction motors; i.e. you already take the loss of converting to electrical power and back)?

With electrified rail you can use regenerative breaking and recover a good proportion of energy otherwise lost in breaking(probably insignificant if stops are few and far between)

I will never agree that natural gas should be used as fuel for electrical plants as it is a waste of the resource that is needed for space heating. IN the last 20 years, natural gas capacity has been built because it is about the only plant that is easy to site from an environmental standpoint.


There are 1 million Mw of installed capacity in the US and none of it should be from any type of oil or natural gas. Combined cycle efficiency helps, but that capacity factors for such plants are relatively low and the electricity is still high priced.

Some diesels are electric drives and some are geared...I will have to look into which are used to haul freight.


That sounds about right; takes about 4 years for the NRC to process your application and about 4 years to build the plant after you get the go ahead(provided its not a first-of-a-kind reactor, that can take years longer).

The NRC has changed it methods...the design is already licensed and the site review process won't take 4 years. The current construction schedules are set for about 3 years as the design and construction has been simplified...however, I don't believe the first units can achieve that as we don't have enough experience.

glenn
 
It seems to me we have a lot of untapped hydroelectric potential too. I know a bunch of loons are trying to get the nearby Clavey River added to the federal protected list so that they can stop a new hydro project that's been proposed for some 20 years. Further north we have the Auburn dam that has been on hold for forever that probably should be restarted. It was supposed to be for flood control but it could also be used for electrical generation.
 
It seems to me we have a lot of untapped hydroelectric potential too. I know a bunch of loons are trying to get the nearby Clavey River added to the federal protected list so that they can stop a new hydro project that's been proposed for some 20 years. Further north we have the Auburn dam that has been on hold for forever that probably should be restarted. It was supposed to be for flood control but it could also be used for electrical generation.

There really isn't too much available in the US--we have exploited most of it. Plus, the capacity factors of hydro plants are not as good as most people think. Typically around 35% due environmental factors. However, I do think we should harness whatever is available.

glenn
 
Ugh, who the hell wants all those overhead lines cluttering up the landscape?
Cluttering up the landscape? They're not tall and hardly noticable at all from any sort of distance.

And it has to cost far more than it's worth to run all those wires and maintain them.
A purely electric locomotive gives you greater power at a lower weight and a lower running cost (for the locomotive). Whether or not this makes the total cost lower depends on many factors, but that it's more efficient and pollutes less isn't really in question.

Also, you can't run proper high speed trains on anything else - and once the lines are there it would be extremely stupid not to use them for freight as well.

So, I take it you accept that electric power is in fact used for other things than light rail?
tgv_east_1.jpg
 
Cluttering up the landscape? They're not tall and hardly noticable at all from any sort of distance.

A purely electric locomotive gives you greater power at a lower weight and a lower running cost (for the locomotive). Whether or not this makes the total cost lower depends on many factors, but that it's more efficient and pollutes less isn't really in question.

Also, you can't run proper high speed trains on anything else - and once the lines are there it would be extremely stupid not to use them for freight as well.
And that's the crux of the matter - they have advantages in areas where trains make frequent stops and thus also have to get back up to speed quickly. In the US, this isn't a need as stops are few and far between. In Europe where population densities are higher and thus you have more stops and passenger rail makes more sense an all electric system can be useful. But I doubt it is cheaper, in fact I don't see how it can be with all that extra infrastructure needed.

So, I take it you accept that electric power is in fact used for other things than light rail?
tgv_east_1.jpg
I'll concede that, but I don't see how it would be practical in the US anywhere but the crowded northeast corridor. Delivering freight from the port of Los Angeles to the eastern seaboard is still best done by diesel/electric hybrids.
 
And that's the crux of the matter - they have advantages in areas where trains make frequent stops and thus also have to get back up to speed quickly. In the US, this isn't a need as stops are few and far between. In Europe where population densities are higher and thus you have more stops and passenger rail makes more sense an all electric system can be useful.
I think it has more to do with the amount of traffic than the frequency of stops. If a line is used by 100 trains every day the infrastructure overhead for each is obviously much lower than if it's only used by 10.

But I doubt it is cheaper, in fact I don't see how it can be with all that extra infrastructure needed.
It would depend on the relative costs of diesel and electricity, I guess. In places with abundant cheap hydroelectricity it could be an obvious decision to make while in others it might require some subsidy.
Reducing the reliance on oil and lowering emissions might also be worth at least a slightly higher cost.


Delivering freight from the port of Los Angeles to the eastern seaboard is still best done by diesel/electric hybrids.
Probably. And maybe hydrogen powered fuel cell locomotives in the future.
 
Crude oil rose 28 cents to $47.44 a barrel by midday.
A report from yesterday's oil news.

Not sure how this renders the much promised cold fusion hydrogen fuel cell solution other than continued wishful thinking. Being able to make a long term plan keeps getting tripped up by short term considerations. Hindmost's points on macro level energy capacity and requirements are sobering.

The last thirty years' dubious energy policy is, politically, unlikely to be changed in the near term. I'll be happy to be wrong on this, delerious even, but since politics is involved, the risks are significant that energy policy will continue to be suboptimal.

DR
 
Peak Oil

I am a newbie to these forums, however I have lurked around for a while now and have enjoyed the critical thinking and debates found on these forums.

Basically I consider myself to be fairly knowledgeable on the issue of Peak Oil and I really cannot believe why Peak Oil is the dominant discussion around the world?

I am about to make a statement which I plan to support with relevant information or evidence as questions arise. I am sure this topic has been discussed previously somewhere on these forums however I really feel it is relevant to this thread so will continue. See if you can follow me on this...

Every year the global oil production has increased by at least 2% per year until 2005. Since 2005 global oil production rates have stopped increasing and have been essentially stagnant. This means that for the years 05 - 06 - 07 and 08 the global production rate for oil hovered at around 86 - 87 million barrels of oil per day and DID NOT INCREASE to keep up with global economic growth as per all previous years. This situation led to oil supply becoming tighter and tighter essentially forcing buyers of oil to outbid each other hence the rise in price of oil from $30 to $100 (begining of 08) then reaching $147 per barrel in July 08. These ever rising prices caused massive problems to the global economy! High oil prices affect the price of everything because everything is linked to oil. It is either made from oil, mined using diesel equipment, transported in diesel ships or trucks etc.

Now when the price of oil goes up that quickly like it did many businesses and families get caught out. 24 airlines went bust in the first 6mths of 08! They are the "canaries in the mineshaft" for peak oil. Airlines are an indicator of the damage high oil prices have on the economy.

Whilst our financial system is (obviously) flawed and people were able to get ridiculous loans with little to no documentation the "trigger" for the subprime mortgage meltdown was the high oil prices. Think about it, oil prices were rising and rising, which drives up the cost of fuel for cars and fuel for trucks and basically the cost of everything as mentioned previously everything is linked to oil. Of course in this situation the first people to feel the pinch (like the airlines in the business world) are the subprime homeowners. They on average live in the outer burbs with older bigger vehicles, lower wages, etc and they had to make ends meet whilst all the while the fuel price was going up, the grocery food prices were going up, even interest rates were going up because of inflation (cost of everything rising). So when one family in one of these outer suburbs finally breaks and cant make their payments... well it wont be just one family will it, because many families have similar economic situations which live in the same suburb and suddenly you have heaps of people defaulting on loans all at the same time! This causes massive problems for banks who are lending out money when they dont actually have any money (and we have seen what happens and are continuing to see what happens).

Anyway, oil is finite. Peak oilers like me are not saying that it is running out. We are saying that it does not have to run out to become a major problem because we live in a global economic system that is based on growth and cannot survive unless there is growth. This does not work when this growth is driven by a finite fossil fuels in which there is a peak of production rate. Peak oil is peak production. There is plenty of oil left, the whole other half of the oil is waiting to be sucked up! The problem is that it is not in the big wells that are easy to get, its in deep sea, tar sands, oil shale, Arctic, and war torn areas where it is in ever smaller sized reserves which require more technology and other expensive equipment etc. It is much slower and more expensive to get out and often the well runs dry after only a few years meaning all of that infrastructure needs to be moved to the next small well!

Basically globalization is about to be replaced (through necessity not choice) by localization!

The Truth Hurts
 
Anyway, oil is finite. Peak oilers like me are not saying that it is running out. We are saying that it does not have to run out to become a major problem

This is obviously true. We've burned the cheap half of the oil and so the price of the expensive half cannot help but be higher.

But what the hell does this mean?

because we live in a global economic system that is based on growth and cannot survive unless there is growth.

Nothing about our "global economic system" is based on growth with the exception of some inflated stock prices and equally inflated bonuses paid to business analysts who predict growth.

The global economic system is based on cheap energy (which a luxury that will be increasingly difficult to find); if it costs me a dollar to produce a widget, which my Chinese competitors can produce for seventy-five cents, I will be outcompeted (locally) by the Chinese as long as transportation costs are less than a quarter. If transportation costs rise to thirty cents, my locally produced widgets will be less expensive than the ones from China.

"Growth" doesn't enter into it, except as a way for people to evaluate the profit potential of my business vs the Chinese one.
 
I don't think the issue is whether oil is finite vs. infinite. Air on the planet is finite. Solar energy is finite. The question is whether there is a lot or a little.

In the short run the supply of oil is inelastic. It takes time to drill new wells and create new delivery infrastructure. What wells will be drilled and which will be shut down depend on the price of oil. If an oil company has an oil field where it expects to be able to produce oil for $50 a barrel, there decision to develop it depends on whether or not they expect oil prices in 5-10 years to be $45 a barrel or $145 a barrel. The same goes for those trying to develop alternative energies. If ethanol from biomass can be produced for the oil equivalent of $75 a barrel it will only be produced in large quantities if oil prices go back up, with the expected lag.
 
Then what exactly are these alternate sources that Obama wants to invest billions of $$$$ into that will get us off of foreign oil? ... if not nuclear?

PS: Personally, I think it impossible to get totally off of imported oil within 200 years. Maybe never.

New in here - not to the discussion - refugee from Dawkins.:boxedin:

Sweden is committed to fossil free by 2025
Now they do have advantages over North America but not all that much.

I think a war footing level could get the US off imported oil in 20 years.
Hey the VCs want a cut of the $5-10 billion a DAY going offshore and north to Alberta and South to Mexico.

Doerr thinks someone will make a trillion dollars off the coming Greentech bubble.

••

Someone said earlier we'll need it all.

Yep - with 50% more people and some 2 billion wanting North American level life style every single source needs to be maxxed especially nuclear as it comes down to coal or nuclear for base load....and coal is NOT a good thing.

Easiest is efficiency gains and moving off fossil for personal transport - if oil gets back up to $200 - which it will - EVs, PHEVs and hitech diesels ( VW ) will be self financing. ( the VW diesel almost is at $100 a barrel ).

Industry has done a decent job getting efficient California in particular but housing and vehicles in North America have a long way to go to catch Europe or Japan.
 
. If an oil company has an oil field where it expects to be able to produce oil for $50 a barrel, there decision to develop it depends on whether or not they expect oil prices in 5-10 years to be $45 a barrel or $145 a barrel. The same goes for those trying to develop alternative energies. If ethanol from biomass can be produced for the oil equivalent of $75 a barrel it will only be produced in large quantities if oil prices go back up, with the expected lag.

IF???

Oil is expected to hit $200 in 2009 and $300 further out.....there is no question cheap oil peak is here and gone.
( there ARE lots of fossil fuel sources tho for hundreds of years )

This breathing space is a good thing to cool the economy ( maybe too much ) and get the Greentech rolling as a make work deal.

Hey Hoover dam is still cranking it out 70 years out.....:D
 
everyone who thinks oil is headed up (i agree but not as quickly as the above poster) are you investing in it and if so how?? i have a few etf's im heavy in, just wanted to get everyone else .02
 

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