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200 plus oil

Dymanic said:
Out of curiosity, just how big is that tank, and how often do you fill it? My casual observation is that where I live (Northern California), something like a third of the passenger vehicles on the road are trucks or SUVs. This suggests that a "measure of calm" has not been seriously lacking for some time, though the owners of those vehicles are increasingly making efforts to unload them in favor of something more fuel efficient (and finding the trade-in values to be far less than what they expected). Most of these vehicles have a fuel tank with a capacity of about 25 US gallons (I'm guessing), which, at that price, would take more than $200 US to fill. I'm also guessing that the average person around here probably fills up about twice a week. Would you say that that is comparable to how things are where you live? I looked at some statistics, and it looks like maybe seven percent of the people in LA use public transportation, and in some US cities, it's well below one percent. They're saying that in Edinburgh, it's just under thirty percent. Does that sound about right to you?

Here again, I think that's going to vary a lot from one individual to another, and from one place to another, depending on just what "as we know it" means to that person, in that place.
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My tank capacity is 13 gallons (I think) so that is about 16 US gallons. It is a Nissan and does about 38 miles to a UK gallon and I fill up about once a fortnight so while painful it is not crippling. I couldn't countenance filling up twice a week or only getting 20 miles to the gallon. :eek:

Public transport tends to pretty busy and I see rail lines that were closed in the 60s are being re-opened. I am about to change jobs and my new post is best reached by train as it is in Glasgow city centre. I live close to a train station so that is my intended means of transport. I guess I am likely to only be filling up with petrol once a month very shortly. Just wish the train fares were a bit cheaper.
 
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diggy70 said:
UR kidding me , what kind of critical thinker are you??? you seem to be very closed minded to make coments like that. Do some research on oil.

They can sell oil futures all day at $130 and people are buying them.. cause if people where not buy they would go down.

As for the airlines, they hedge fuel 6 months in advance.
Here's the thing they will have to raise prices huge in a few months and they will go under because people can pay more at least in the FOMC.
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How old are you? Seriously.
 
diggy70 said:
UR kidding me , what kind of critical thinker are you??? you seem to be very closed minded to make coments like that. Do some research on oil.

They can sell oil futures all day at $130 and people are buying them.. cause if people where not buy they would go down.

As for the airlines, they hedge fuel 6 months in advance.
Here's the thing they will have to raise prices huge in a few months and they will go under because people can pay more at least in the FOMC.
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Er, . . . what?

No never mind. Don't answer that.
 
The price of oil today is all politcal. how often have you gone to the pumps and they were dry? Happened all the time in teh 80's.

Supply and demand are influenced today by the Chavez and Ahkmenijad's, and they know it very well. Every time they speak about global war, the price goes up. The price will go down.
 
Texastwister said:
The price of oil today is all politcal. how often have you gone to the pumps and they were dry? Happened all the time in teh 80's.

Supply and demand are influenced today by the Chavez and Ahkmenijad's, and they know it very well. Every time they speak about global war, the price goes up. The price will go down.
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It has a political element but there are demand issues with India and China now major buyers and supply issues with Iraq performing well below par and Nigeria having difficulties with rebels, thieves and infrastructure. On top of this the market has got itself into a speculation bind. Apart from demand all of the problems could be resolved and the price could come down to half of what it is today.

Ironically countries like Iran are doing rather well out of this mess.
 
Texastwister said:
The price of oil today is all politcal. how often have you gone to the pumps and they were dry? Happened all the time in teh 80's.
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I wonder if you've taken any more care in thinking this issue through than you did in composing that post, but I'm glad you did post it, because it nicely illustrates what I see as the heart of the problem. In a society where everything built in maybe the last five decades was built on the assumption that there would continue to be endless supplies of cheap oil, it's treated as a matter of entitlement. Rather than seeing themselves as participants in the process that drives the price of oil, as bidders in a sort of ongoing global auction, the response to sharp increases in price is to look for somebody to blame. Specifically, somebody else.
 
diggy70 said:
130 oil is going to start with wiping out airlines...
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There will be likely losses and mergers, but in the end there'll still be at least a few airlines. The time premium offered by air travel as compared to road or rail travel will still be worth it to many travellers.

At this point I'd say Boeing's bet on fuel efficiency in its next-generation aircraft was a better choice than Airbus' bet on capacity...
 
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EEK!
$135 today. It's gone up almost $10 in the space of the last couple days.
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel in New York on concern that supplies are inadequate after U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly dropped last week.

U.S. crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest drop in four months, the Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline supplies plunged by 755,000 barrels when analysts expected an increase.

``The price was roaring before the inventory report and was going up regardless, but that gave it the extra push,'' said Rowan Menzies, head of research at Commodity Warrants Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ``I'm beginning to think that this is a serious macro event, with oil at these levels, and it's going to have some serious consequences.''

Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.87, or 1.4 percent, to $135.04 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $134.85 a barrel at 9:30 a.m. Singapore time.

Oil for prompt delivery has surged 8.5 percent in the past week while futures contracts for 2016 gained $20 to $142 a barrel.
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Nogbad said:
It has a political element but there are demand issues with India and China now major buyers and supply issues with Iraq performing well below par and Nigeria having difficulties with rebels, thieves and infrastructure. On top of this the market has got itself into a speculation bind. Apart from demand all of the problems could be resolved and the price could come down to half of what it is today.

Ironically countries like Iran are doing rather well out of this mess.
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Stop importing oil in to the US and Europe,
Well you cant. Energy independence is impossible. Why? The US uses 23 million barrels of oil a day, and produces 7 million. Europe is in the same boat. So 135 dollar oil is still cheep. Independence means 30 gallon gas. That will curb demand to 7 -10 million barrels a day.

Wait till opec realize they can charge 1000 a barrel and we will still buy it.
 
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Texastwister said:
The price of oil today is all politcal. how often have you gone to the pumps and they were dry? Happened all the time in teh 80's.

Supply and demand are influenced today by the Chavez and Ahkmenijad's, and they know it very well. Every time they speak about global war, the price goes up. The price will go down.
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We are short. The free market is offsetting the shortages…’135 oil’. The poor countries feel the pinch first. Energy is the blood an economy. So when you get energy problems and governments involved in free markets… ie .. Price controls, wind fall profits taxes and what ever other crap the government can think of to control free markets. That’s when you will see shortage in the US or Europe.
Tex buddy hate to be the one to break it to you the price oil will never be cheep again. Not saying it won’t be volatile. But never cheep again.
Everything we spend money will go higher for a long time. And you can also add a little more because of monetary inflation cause of the FED. That will add to the price too.
 
If anyone knows where to find and how to chart the figures, I'd like to see a comparison between the price of oil, the value of the Australian Dollar and the Australian price "at the pump" over the last ten years.

For years as our dollar fell (to around US$0.50 in 2001), it was blamed for the rising cost of fuel. But, once our dollar began to recover (almost US$1.00 now), the barrel price was blamed for the rising cost of fuel and to a layman observer like me, it seemed the rising dollar had no impact whatsoever on the price we pay to fill up the car.

I would have expected a near-100% improvement in our dollar within seven years to be noticeable at the pump but it hasn't been, imho.
 
Dymanic said:
I wonder if you've taken any more care in thinking this issue through than you did in composing that post, but I'm glad you did post it, because it nicely illustrates what I see as the heart of the problem. In a society where everything built in maybe the last five decades was built on the assumption that there would continue to be endless supplies of cheap oil, it's treated as a matter of entitlement. Rather than seeing themselves as participants in the process that drives the price of oil, as bidders in a sort of ongoing global auction, the response to sharp increases in price is to look for somebody to blame. Specifically, somebody else.
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Well said.
 
AndyD said:
If anyone knows where to find and how to chart the figures, I'd like to see a comparison between the price of oil, the value of the Australian Dollar and the Australian price "at the pump" over the last ten years.

For years as our dollar fell (to around US$0.50 in 2001), it was blamed for the rising cost of fuel. But, once our dollar began to recover (almost US$1.00 now), the barrel price was blamed for the rising cost of fuel and to a layman observer like me, it seemed the rising dollar had no impact whatsoever on the price we pay to fill up the car.

I would have expected a near-100% improvement in our dollar within seven years to be noticeable at the pump but it hasn't been, imho.
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Australia is a commodity producing country.
We are in a commodity bull market for the last 7 years and more to come.
people are buying your dollar for a hedge.
 
I could see oil hitting $200 a barrel by spring of 09' and we can thank our own people for that. It is being completely controlled by the commodities market and people holding back pumping until the prices are high. I converted my truck to E85 and I try to push as much oil back to other countries as possible.
 
let move this thread to 300 dollar oil any one disagree?
The Central Scrutinize what are you doing with you money ?? long housing?????? long bank stocks??? since he hates oil and gold lets ask him! I know he is long SPAM.... he sure like to bs, but give noe real alternative!
 
Yes, read bloomberg news. It is full of insightful information that the market at large does not know. It will make you rich :rolleyes:
 
First off I in no way will put money into the commodities market. By people placing money into the market it is raising food prices and fuel cost. I know people that can hardly afford to drive to work. So you can go make yourselves rich by making other suffer. That is what the problem is with the world today not make a living but make so much money that you can buy anything you want and worry about no one but yourself. I make enough money to survive on and I am happy with it.
 
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