political predictions

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/us/politics/election-results-voting.html?_r=0 VoteCastr plans to use computer models to predict statewide results based on select precincts in important states. The models have been used by each party to project winners on Election Day and are now considered...

Who do you think will be Hillary Clinton's Running Mate?

It currently gives Hillary an 80.6% chance at winning. For comparison, they gave Obama a 61.8% chance at reelection in June 2012, and that got up to over 90% by election day. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Place your bets for California's Democratic Primary. It's really just that simple. Vote above. ETA: California allows early voting up to 4 weeks before the primary. An independent voter must ask for a Democratic ballot at the polls. California's population is 38.6% Hispanic, 6.5% black...

What will happen at the Democratic Convention? Who will be the nominee?

What will happen at the 2016 Republican Convention? Who will be the nominee?

Post em if you got em: Dem: Hillary squeaks by in Iowa (less than 5 points), thanks to a phenomenal ground-game that is more like an invading army. However, everyone loves an underdog, and the real story will be Bernie's close 2nd place finish. Bernie rides the media wave and coasts to an easy...

Bill Kristol is predicting a Rubio-Fiorina/Fiorina-Rubio ticket. And thus we know this won't happen because Bill Kristol is always wrong about everything. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2574661/

Here's to hoping this is WRONG! PLEASE! If for no other reason than, I love my insurance! http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/?utm_source=Facebook

Over here in Blighty it is billed as a Jeb v Hillary contest. No one else is getting any airtime so I have no idea who the serious challengers are and how likely they are to win. I was going to do a poll but it appears there are shedloads of Republican and Democratic candidates. So instead...

The Republicans are now rated a slight favorite to win control of the Senate in November: No surprise, many of his former acolytes on the Left think Silver's lost his touch. Paul Krugman: Balloon Juice seems to have inhaled nitrous oxide: PoliticsUSA (from a liberal bent) sees a different...

In the credit where credit is due department: Sarah Palin was widely mocked in 2008 for her foreign policy comments on Russia, including her prediction that Russia might someday invade Ukraine. Remember the joke that she could see Russia from her house...

Here is your chance to get your Christie prediction in before anything happens and perhaps prove your psychic ability.

"Middle Class" means "Worker Class" and "Spreading the wealth around" did not work for the Soviet Union either. It is "Party" time.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/lovejoyfeminism/2012/10/this-is-the-most-important-election-of-all-time-again.html I'm guessing no one million dollar award for them.

We've all seen the looming catastrophe on InTrade, and the hecklers are growing ever bolder. It's no secret that Romney is losing it. But I was going to wait until after the first debate to make the call, until today's events. First, there was Ann Romney's pleading for Republicans to stop...

Where do you think he will bottom out?

It's far enough out from the election that predictions are a combination of sage wisdom and lucky guess. There are plenty of places with interactive electoral maps; this is the site I used: 270 to Win For bragging rights, you can place your predictions here. Winner is the person whose...

Background information: http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-05-29/astrology-conference-predict-future/55272842/1 Video of panel: http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/22941325 http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/22942080 (questions)

Just said it on his radio program (9 o'clock hour in the midwest). Can we say "irresponsible"?

A recent interview with Sylvia Browne: Full: MLive.com She "predicts" natural disasters in disaster prone regions, where every year something happens. Nothing impressive, except for the Obama prediction. Because she previously "predicted": On December 27, 2006 Browne said this about the 2008...

What do you predict it will be? I'm hearing Romney/Rubio. Would make sense. Personable, young, a tea party favourite, carries Florida and eats into a demographic that the Republicans have difficulty with. That's Rubio, not Romney.

Right now the market gives a 58% chance of an Obama re-election; http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474 I know these markets tend to be very accurate a few months out, but has it been studied how accurate they are 18 months out?

According to Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball has been very accurate in the past: InTrade agrees, putting the odds of GOP control at 72%.

It appears that GOP will make gains, both in Federal and State elections. So, you'll have lot of states making dramatic spending cuts and sending a million public workers to the unemployment rolls, while the Federal government will be unwilling to do anything to counter that. I see a very large...

Here's an article about her current tour: Full: OCRegister A classic non-committal Browne answer. She's "worried" and says there "could" be something that happens. Let's all recall how she did during President Obama's 2008 election. In 2006, she predicted a "black president" for the 2012 term...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo This guy is gonna become Governor of New York in 2011. And I think by 2016, he will become one of the Democrat's major guys. I mean, just look at that face!!! He would kick Putin's, Ahmedinajad's, and Chavez's asses...all at the same time!!!

Okay, sooner or later someone had to start a thread on this, so here it is. Personally, I prefer prediction markets over polls any day (I'll explain why if you're curious), and one of the oldest & most respected prediction markets has recently opened up on the question of the 2010 Congressional...

OK, not really. The conservatives won a couple of state elections held in an off-year. Which doesn't stop pundits from claiming what my headline says. Of course, that's about as accurate as the opposite pundits declaring the end of conservatism and the Republicans a year ago, with Obama...

President Obama is making a testable prediction. Odd, I thought it was the Internet bubble, with all its private investment in profitable, growing, desired enterprises that fueled economic growth that outstripped Congress' ability to spend it in the '90s. Here it was just dumping a bunch of...