The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Klimax]

Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to grind away on the Eastern front.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...95cb614259031cb5a25a2a&pinned_post_type=share

Pound towns and cities to rubble and then advance into the wasteland. The reports from Ukrainian intelligence (and echoed by the UK and US) are that the Russians are sustaining heavy losses and suffering low morale. Both armies have been in the field for months now and it's understandable that they're getting worn pretty thin. Unfortunately, there's no indication that the Russians are going to crack any time soon. They're continuing to grind away in the East and they're holding their positions around Kharkiv and in the South.

Mej. That Kharkiv is not that safe anymore. And if after massive artillery barrage one still suffers large causalities, that we are talking about redefinition of Pyrrhic victory. Patience. Those hundreds of armored vehicle take a while to destroy...

 

[Matthew Best]

Putin went to see his most trusted advisor, who happened to be his personal doctor. The doctor said, "I have good news and bad news. Which do you want first?"

Putin said, "I am a strong Russian man. I'll take the bad news."

The doctor said, "the war is going badly. It will take at least another year to defeat the Ukrainians."

Putin said, "thanks, I know it's hard to be honest with a powerful man like me. Now, what's the good news?"

The doctor said, "your cancer is back and you have only six months to live."

 

[BobTheCoward]

The local bully took over your neighbours garage in 2014. Declared it was his now and defied anyone to do anything about it. Now he wants their spare bedroom too, and is throwing your neighbour's property into the yard.

There are no police in this scenario. The community should just let him do it, right? I mean he'll probably leave everyone else alone.

I don't view the thinking as betting he will leave others alone. Just that it isn't the responsibility to stop him at the neighbor.

A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.

 

[crescent]

Pro-Russian social media accounts are in full overdrive crowing about the massive defeat of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region. They've got a bunch of very graphic video and pics of dead Ukrainian soldiers to back it up.

Dead soldiers wearing cold weather gear, with trees in the images not leafed out yet.

They are using footage that is at least a month old as evidence of what happened in the past 48 hours. Hopefully that's a sign that the offensive is actually going pretty well.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I presume you meant cold weather gear.

 

[crescent]

I presume you meant cold weather gear.

You presume correctly. Fixed the word substitution error.

Thanks.

 

[gnome]

I don't view the thinking as betting he will leave others alone. Just that it isn't the responsibility to stop him at the neighbor.

A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.

I don't think I agree with that at all. Strong alliances are vital for national defense. Extended into stronger cultural and economic ties, those same alliances build some international stability as well. NATO (and as a precursor, the Marshall Plan) is a pretty clear example. The major nations of Western Europe used to have destructive wars regularly. Since then they've been at peace with each other more than 75 years.

 

[ponderingturtle]

What is the obsession with A-10s?

Gun goes BRRRR!

 

[BobTheCoward]

I don't think I agree with that at all. Strong alliances are vital for national defense. Extended into stronger cultural and economic ties, those same alliances build some international stability as well. NATO (and as a precursor, the Marshall Plan) is a pretty clear example. The major nations of Western Europe used to have destructive wars regularly. Since then they've been at peace with each other more than 75 years.

An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.

Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake

 

[Drewbot]

Here is an endgame.

The United States says they will be coming over to secure the areas taken by Russians,including the 2014 gains. or... Putin agrees to pull back to pre 2022 borders and simply claims he has taken care of the Nazis in Donbas and can now leave.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.



Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake

So you blame Ukraine for failing to join NATO already. How were they going to do that? How would Russia have reacted if they tried?

 

[BobTheCoward]

So you blame Ukraine for failing to join NATO already. How were they going to do that? How would Russia have reacted if they tried?

I don't blame them.

 

[Ziggurat]

A corollary to the notion that one of a government's role is national defense is that government is responsible for doing it...with no expectation of outside help.

An alliance is what I would consider taking responsibility for national defense.

I'm really not interested in getting into a semantics debate, but I will point out that I think most people consider alliances "outside help". If you don't, then your phrasing is likely the source of confusion here.

Ukraine appears to have a lack of actionable alliances. Rookie mistake

They didn't really have any good options at the time.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I'm really not interested in getting into a semantics debate, but I will point out that I think most people consider alliances "outside help". If you don't, then your phrasing is likely the source of confusion here.



They didn't really have any good options at the time.

I wouldn't consider an alliance help. The same way I wouldn't think of insurance as getting help from the insurance company.

 

[Ziggurat]

I wouldn't consider an alliance help.

Yeah, I figured that out. But most people do, and you shouldn't be surprised that you expressed yourself in a way which caused confusion.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I don't blame them.

Okay. You don't blame them, you merely consider they made a "rookie mistake".

What do you think they should have done differently, to avoid this rookie mistake?

 

[jimbob]

Meanwhile, back on topic

11 minute video by "Military History Visualized" on whether the footage of T-62's being reportedly-sent to Ukraine was likely to be fake or real, and if real, where they could be used



TLDW - probably real, the Russian railways said they shipped tanks on the days reported, the similar markings on the tanks to earlier times are just generic transport markings, and some pro-Russian Telegram channels also mentioned them

 

[jimbob]

From that video I posted earlier of a lecture in Finnish with English subtitles by a retired Finnish intelligence colonel on why and how Russia does things differently to the West. With a lot of focus on so-called "strategic culture"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw&t=1600s

Lenin once said 'try it with a bayonet, if it's soft, push, if it's hard, leave'

Seems entirely accurate for discussing how Russia has reacted to ramping up support for Ukraine and indeed the other provocations by Russia.

 

[SpitfireIX]

Multiple news outlets are reporting that the Biden Administration will in fact send the truck-mounted version of the MLRS to Ukraine, but not the longest-range rockets. I really hope it's true.

 

[Doubt]

Multiple news outlets are reporting that the Biden Administration will in fact send the truck-mounted version of the MLRS to Ukraine, but not the longest-range rockets. I really hope it's true.

Best possible option. At the very least the HIMARS version should be easier to maintain.