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Trump and Jail

Orphia Nay

Penguilicious Spodmaster., Tagger
Orphia Nay
Joined
May 2, 2005
Messages
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This topic seems to be in every thread and is cluttering up discussion on the indictments.

To get things started in here:

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

45% of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury, while 35% said they would.

52% said they wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison at the time of the election, while 28% said they would.
Click to expand...

Go for it.

Will Trump go to jail?

Which jail will he go to?

Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail?

Could he run the USA if he's in jail?
 
Orphia Nay said:
This topic seems to be in every thread and is cluttering up discussion on the indictments.

To get things started in here:

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial



Go for it.

Will Trump go to jail?
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In some form: yes.

Which jail will he go to?
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Depends on the various cases. It might well be home confinement.

Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail?
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Two different questions. Nomination? Likely. Election? No.
Could he run the USA if he's in jail?
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Yes.
 
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  • Will Trump go to jail? He will be incarcerated, probably ankle-bracelet minimum.
  • Which jail will he go to? He will probably skate to "home detention". But it would be delicious to see him in a SuperMax.
  • Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail? I think not. The GOP machine knows it is looking more stupid by the hour supporting a known racketeer and criminal. The maniacs will still support Donny. The smarter spin-doctors not so much.
  • Could he run the USA if he's in jail? Technically, yes. Practically, impossible.
 
Orphia Nay said:
This topic seems to be in every thread and is cluttering up discussion on the indictments.

To get things started in here:

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

Go for it.

Will Trump go to jail?
Click to expand...
Yes
Orphia Nay said:
Which jail will he go to?
Click to expand...
Don't know. Probably a federal prison.
Orphia Nay said:
Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail?
Click to expand...
No
Orphia Nay said:
Could he run the USA if he's in jail?
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No.
 
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d4m10n said:
What mechanisms do the spin-doctors have to override the maniacs?

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...winning-the-nomination-even-easier-for-trump/
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The non-MAGA Congress critters could could come to a bi-partisan agreement with Democrats to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

If Kevin Spineless won't let it go to a House vote, they could join in a lawsuit to invoke same. If it gets to SCOTUS, and they agree, The Fat Orange Turd would be goneburger

Now, this is very unlikely to happen, but you did ask for a mechanism!
 
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Norman Alexander said:
  • Will Trump go to jail? He will be incarcerated, probably ankle-bracelet minimum.
  • Which jail will he go to? He will probably skate to "home detention". But it would be delicious to see him in a SuperMax.
  • Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail? I think not. The GOP machine knows it is looking more stupid by the hour supporting a known racketeer and criminal. The maniacs will still support Donny. The smarter spin-doctors not so much.
  • Could he run the USA if he's in jail? Technically, yes. Practically, impossible.
Click to expand...

If it's a federal conviction he'll just order his own release. He's the wardens bosses bosses bosses boss after all. That's not equivalent to a self pardon.
 
d4m10n said:
What mechanisms do the spin-doctors have to override the maniacs?

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...winning-the-nomination-even-easier-for-trump/
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They control the money. Trump can win all the nom votes and call himself the top candidate. But he relies on Other Peoples' Money to fund everything on the campaign trail. He is actually ******* broke, and will even stiff his own people to not pay out. So no mun, no fun.

They can also control the media. Even Trothe Sential runs on someone else's platform (Rumble, so I understand). Behind-the-scenes hands can pull the support there, cut off his Twitter, etc. Trump's feed can go dark pretty quickly. However they don't even need to shut him down 100%. Just throttle it enough that he no longer dominates the headlines.
 
Trump will be convicted at both the state and federal level. He will serve time in a minimum security prison. He will win the Republican nomination and lose the election.
 
I think if convicted, punishment will be as little as possible, to avoid violence. I have no idea, but feel like GOP will still possibly nominate him, as rape, and general grossness doesn't seem to bother them at all. Can you imagine if Hilary or Obama wandered around with an upside down bible?
 
gabeygoat said:
I think if convicted, punishment will be as little as possible, to avoid violence. I have no idea, but feel like GOP will still possibly nominate him, as rape, and general grossness doesn't seem to bother them at all. Can you imagine if Hilary or Obama wandered around with an upside down bible?
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As little as possible is still enough to lock Trump up for the rest of his life.
 
He needs to be locked up, not allowed to roam around Mar-a-Lago pretending he's still the god-king. It doesn't matter which prison, what matters is he loses his freedom, take his cell phone away, stop him from posting on Truth Social or anywhere else. He gets meals and visitors under the same rules as any other prisoner.
 
lobosrul5 said:
If it's a federal conviction he'll just order his own release. He's the wardens bosses bosses bosses boss after all. That's not equivalent to a self pardon.
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In the real world it doesn't work like that, wardens can only do what is legal and an order from their boss wouldn't make a release of a convicted person legal. However in the post fact Trump world we actually live in who knows?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
He needs to be locked up, not allowed to roam around Mar-a-Lago pretending he's still the god-king. It doesn't matter which prison, what matters is he loses his freedom, take his cell phone away, stop him from posting on Truth Social or anywhere else. He gets meals and visitors under the same rules as any other prisoner.
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I agree.

Does anyone know what are the standard punishments for these crimes and how do people usually serve them? Seen many people commenting about home arrest and ankle monitors but is that what happens for these types of crimes?
 
Darat said:
I agree.

Does anyone know what are the standard punishments for these crimes and how do people usually serve them? Seen many people commenting about home arrest and ankle monitors but is that what happens for these types of crimes?
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decades and decades in jail. Even if served concurrently, Trump would serve 20+ years.
Effectively, he would be released to House Arrest once his health starts to fail.


There is no point in asking "what is normal", because nothing about this is normal.
If the Rule of Law meant anything, Trump would be in jail without bail pending trials.
 
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It strikes me as wishful thinking to assume these cases will be concluded prior to the 2024 elections. We're just over a year out and Trump has all the lawyers in the world to delay the case (assuming that's what he wants to do).
 
His lawyers aren't very good because he doesn't pay them and he's a terrible client. They can try flooding the court with paperwork to delay the process, but some of the judges in these cases are done with the games.
 
Donal said:
His lawyers aren't very good because he doesn't pay them and he's a terrible client. They can try flooding the court with paperwork to delay the process, but some of the judges in these cases are done with the games.
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A year and change start to finish would be very fast for a complicated federal case with lots of witnesses and potential codefendants. These things can take years to be wrapped up.
 
Donal said:
His lawyers aren't very good because he doesn't pay them and he's a terrible client. They can try flooding the court with paperwork to delay the process, but some of the judges in these cases are done with the games.
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It appears that "he" is paying them, look at the reports from the PACS they are paying millions to legal firms.

These are not lawyers that will continue to "support" him without being paid they aren't the Giuliani and Wood of this world. If he doesn't pay them - or ensures someone pays them they will drop him in a heartbeat.
 
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True, but I wonder how much of that is because the lawyers are well-paid and can properly handle their clients. Like The Great Zaganza said above, this isn't normal
 
TurkeysGhost said:
It strikes me as wishful thinking to assume these cases will be concluded prior to the 2024 elections. We're just over a year out and Trump has all the lawyers in the world to delay the case...
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Agreed; the only case really build for speed is the federal indictment in D.C. where Jack slimmed the issues down to the bare essentials and left out all the co-conspirators. The Fani Willis case is an amazing behemoth encompassing all the people and all the various actions they took to disenfranchise Georgians; it will take at least a couple years to play out. The Alvin Bragg case is somewhere in between these two.
 
If only we could apply the Orange Excrescence's expressed treatment of drug dealers via "Quicktrial"in a day, followed by execution the next.

The irony is undoubtedly lost on the irredeemable POS. He would merrily mete out the harshest justice in an eyeblink for others, while for his own scurvy hide he avails himself to the fullest of every structural legal delay afforded defendants in a civilized society.

Oh, how I loathe the vile creature.
 
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Lurch said:
If only we could apply the Orange Excrescence's expressed treatment of drug dealers via "Quicktrial"in a day, followed by execution the next.

The irony is undoubtedly lost on the irredeemable POS. He would merrily mete out the harshest justice in a day for others, while for his own scurvy hide he avails himself to the fullest of every structural legal delay afforded defendants in a civilized society.

Oh, how I loathe the vile creature.
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Well all we need to do is wait until he "pleads the 5th", the judge can then declare him guilty and proceed to sentence because didn't Trump say that only the guilty plea the 5th?
 
Darat said:
Does anyone know what are the standard punishments for these crimes and how do people usually serve them? Seen many people commenting about home arrest and ankle monitors but is that what happens for these types of crimes?
Click to expand...

Orphia Nay said:
I found this interesting about the potential jail time etc:

https://www.vox.com/trump-investigations/23832341/trump-charges-prison-time-sentence-indictments
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Adding to Orphia Nay's excellent citation: John Ehrlichman (Watergate) and Jacob Chansley (QAnon shaman) served their prison time at the low-security Federal Correctional Institute in Safford, Arizona. That's just one of many similar federal facilities at which Trump might serve a hypothetical prison sentence.

If convicted of state crimes, he might serve time in a state prison. If convicted of both state and federal crimes, the prison sentences would likely run concurrently and be served in a federal prison.

jt512 said:
Trump will be convicted at both the state and federal level. He will serve time in a minimum security prison. He will win the Republican nomination and lose the election.
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That's the most probable outcome, but I'm guessing there's about a 25% chance that Trump will win both the Republican nomination and the general election. That scenario is compatible with the possibility of convictions before the elections, between the 2024 election and the January 2025 inauguration, or after the inauguration. If Trump becomes president in 2025, there are several ways he could make federal convictions irrelevant, but conviction on state charges in Georgia would be, uh, interesting.
 
Orphia Nay said:
Will Trump go to jail?
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He should by all evidence and rule of law. I'd say he will unless he dies first. Truly, I hope he lives long enough to see prison time for the sake of justice and the country.

Which jail will he go to?
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'Home' confinement on a military base in a residential unit. It's been done before and ironically for mishandling classified documents. I can't find the case but it wasn't long ago and I distinctly remember it being talked about on two different podcasts I listen to because it came up the same day on my playlist.

Will he win the nomination/election if he's in jail?
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He will win the nomination, but won't win the election, baring some major catastrophes that have nothing to do with Trump, OR the GOP going even more fascist and messing with the election.

Could he run the USA if he's in jail?
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Things would run better with him in prison as president than him out of prison as president. Not well, but better.


*Pedantic nitpick: 'jail' is where you usually go awaiting trial or for very short sentences at the local level and 'prison' is where you usually sever actual sentences.
 
TurkeysGhost said:
A year and change start to finish would be very fast for a complicated federal case with lots of witnesses and potential codefendants. These things can take years to be wrapped up.
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It really doesn't have to be. A no nonsense judge can motor through anything, if they are determined to.
 
acbytesla said:
It really doesn't have to be. A no nonsense judge can motor through anything, if they are determined to.
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I saw one lawyer opine that while anything is possible, he was really surprised that the Georgia DA wants to try all 19 defendants together. Just the shear amount of lawyers, with objections and motions etc could be quite overwhelming.
 
lobosrul5 said:
I saw one lawyer opine that while anything is possible, he was really surprised that the Georgia DA wants to try all 19 defendants together. Just the shear amount of lawyers, with objections and motions etc could be quite overwhelming.
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Maybe they are hoping many/most opt out and go for a plea deal before trial.

Sent from my moto e using Tapatalk
 
The important question is, with the orange turd wearing those orange clothes, will the effect be like Mystique, as far as the transparency not the figure?



(You're welcome, those of you who've been trying to lose weight but not quite succeeding. Just read this post whenever you feel those hunger pangs, and there's no way you're eating anything.)
 
gabeygoat said:
I think if convicted, punishment will be as little as possible, to avoid violence.
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I don't think it will matter to the MAGAchud. Anything short of a complete exoneration and a public apology from prosecutors will be seen as an affront.

Sentencing him to home confinement in Mar a Lardo will still be seen as an attack on the republican god and still cause his kultists to engage in violence.
 
acbytesla said:
A year and change start to finish would be very fast for a complicated federal case with lots of witnesses and potential codefendants. These things can take years to be wrapped up.
Click to expand...
It really doesn't have to be. A no nonsense judge can motor through anything, if they are determined to.
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Keep in mind that there are limits on how fast they can move things along.

Ok, granted, Trump has regularly abused the system to push his various legal issues into the future. We want Trump to have a fair trial (and I believe there is overwhelming evidence that he is guilty and will be found as such). But part of having a fair trial is allowing the defense enough time to analyze evidence.
 
TurkeysGhost said:
It strikes me as wishful thinking to assume these cases will be concluded prior to the 2024 elections. We're just over a year out and Trump has all the lawyers in the world to delay the case (assuming that's what he wants to do).
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It is quite possible (even likely) that SOME of the cases will be outstanding until after the 2024 elections. (There are just so many criminal and civil cases Trump is facing that they are probably going to have a hard time scheduling some of them.)

But I think that at least some of the cases will be concluded before the election. The NY hush money payments case is scheduled for early 2024, and it would have been almost a year since the initial indictment, so no no reason that that trial wouldn't have concluded by the elections. And the Election interference case is pretty slimmed down and could be handled fairly quickly. (And both those cases have very no-nonsense judges.)

The Documents case might be delayed because of a pro-Trump/incompetent judge, and the Georgia case might be delayed because of the complexity and number of defendants. I could see one or both of those trials taking place after the elections.
 
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