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[Split Thread] (Ed) Psychic predictions and anecdotes of unusual events

Is there credible evidence that the prediction actually happened...?

Amy, you say you posted the prediction in a chat somewhere at espn, but that it can't be located. Are there any additional details that might help us track it down?

What about social media? Might you have boasted about it on FB? (I I made such a spot-on prediction, I would have boasted somewhere.)

Did you mention it here at the time? If not why not?

What about friends and family members? Did any of them mention this extraordinary event on social media?

Or, having witnessed this odds-defying prediction, did all of the witnesses maintain dead silence online?
 
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But coincidences definitely occur. Coincidence is a more likely explanation than many that have been proposed for apparently paranormal phenomena, so why should we not consider it?

Well of course we should. What we shouldn't ever do is handwave away for no reason other than "we don't otherwise like the implication". And that's exactly what posters are demanding here.

Look at Axxman300's post above. The part about family members being "sensitives" is what I'm talking about. Perhaps they are picking up on signals that we don't entirely understand. But posters here would handwave it all away as coincidence, and that's wrong. We don't have to accept that it is paranormal, of course (duh), but we don't need to default to the null or any other premature conclusions.
 
A few years ago a climate change denier here who was a big fan of Piers Corbyn (who claimed an 80% accuracy rate for his weather predictions) kept helpfully quoting them, so I compiled a list of ten over a period of about 2 years and tracked them. Only 2 panned out. My favourite was his prediction one January that the UK would have an unusually cold spring; it actually turned out to be the warmest spring in the 350 year Central England Temperature record.

It's trivially easy to record predictions as soon as they are made and then track them. I've done it more than once, most recently for the poster PartSkeptic. Just making sure they can't do the "remember the hits and forget the misses" thing can be enough to make it clear there is nothing remarkable happening.
 
Here, I'll shout this into the wind one last time(?) ... What's particularly unskeptical is assuming that an anonymous character on the internet actually made the odds-defying, unevidenced prediction in the first place.

Well yeah, but that goes for literally anything here. Your location is posted as Puget Sound. Should I default to the null hypothesis and deny you live anywhere near there?

We're online. We have to take stuff as a given or we can't have the most rudimentary discussions. You say you live in X. I say "Oh Yeah?", but wouldn't bet a dollar on it. AS says they had a weird experience. "Oh yeah?" again. roryboryalice insists they are actually psychic. "Prove it" says I.
 
Well yeah, but that goes for literally anything here. Your location is posted as Puget Sound. Should I default to the null hypothesis and deny you live anywhere near there?
LO f'n L ! Here's a little quiz for you. Which of the following is an extraordinary claim...?

A. I live in the Puget Sound region.

B: I made an odds-defying prediction due to a psychic revelation.
 
Is there credible evidence that the prediction actually happened...?

Amy, you say you posted the prediction in a chat somewhere at espn, but that it can't be located. Are there any additional details that might help us track it down?

What about social media? Might you have boasted about it on FB? (I I made such a spot-on prediction, I would have boasted somewhere.)

Did you mention it here at the time? If not why not?

What about friends and family members? Did any of them mention this extraordinary event on social media?

Or, having witnessed this odds-defying prediction, did all of the witnesses maintain dead silence online?


No to all those... sorry.

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Well of course we should. What we shouldn't ever do is handwave away for no reason other than "we don't otherwise like the implication". And that's exactly what posters are demanding here.

Look at Axxman300's post above. The part about family members being "sensitives" is what I'm talking about. Perhaps they are picking up on signals that we don't entirely understand. But posters here would handwave it all away as coincidence, and that's wrong. We don't have to accept that it is paranormal, of course (duh), but we don't need to default to the null or any other premature conclusions.


I couldn't have said it any better... thank you.

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LO f'n L ! Here's a little quiz for you. Which of the following is an extraordinary claim...?

A. I live in the Puget Sound region.

B: I made an odds-defying prediction due to a psychic revelation.

That part you took the time to snip out covered that. Rba made an extraordinary claim. The first two were mundane. Your "b" here tries to scramble rba and AS
 
You're putting words in my mouth. Please don't.

I don't know what the hell AmyStrange experienced. I'm certainly not special pleading for a different standard. I'm saying that handwaving inconvenient data as coincidence is unskeptical.



You seem massively confident that the paranormal has been exhaustively studied and satisfactorily explained. I think it was a fairly trivial and spotty effort, largely resulting in "not proven" more than "proven impossible", as you say.

As long as you handwave the AmyStrange cases as coincidental, you are begging your own conclusion. You need to actually demonstrate the odds, here, to relegate AmyStrange's experience into statistical noise range. I don't thinknits practical to do, or even possible.

What it boils down to is that I stick a pin in such phenomena, with a nod to Asimov that we have insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion. You are happy to dismiss anything that does not beg your question. Chocolate and vanilla.

AmyStrange's claim isn't data. it's a claim. Do we have any way to confirm that the incident happened as claimed? No. Do we have any reason to believe it cannot be explained as coincidence or normal talent? No. Do we have any reason to believe it can be explained by as yet unevidenced, unspecified "paranormal" phenomena? No. Do we have any reason to believe the phenomenon AmyStrange claims is repeatable, observable, measurable? Not really, no.

You're saying the claim can't even be studied scientifically, only accepted or rejected on faith alone. Why do you object to people putting their faith in the null hypothesis, in this situation?
 
I bet you have, you just didn't remember it because it wasn't notable.

That's called confirmation bias and it happens to all of us. Literally every human being is subject to it, and it is very convincing if you don't realise it's happening.


I've actually had three separate occasions where I had an incredibly, disturbingly strong sense that I knew something was going to happen. Two of them involved air travel for work. In these cases, separated by a few years, as I was boarding the respective flights I was overcome by a surety that the plane was going to crash. It wasn't fear - I've never been afraid to fly, only bored/annoyed at the process. It was 'knowledge' that there was going to be a crash.

Neither flight crashed, or indeed had anything unusual happen.

The third case involved me receiving a call for a job interview right as something ... I'll just say 'profoundly upsetting' was happening to me. After the call I had that same positive sense that I had the job in the bag.

Didn't even get called back for a second interview.

These all came at a time when I was just starting to dip my toe into critical thinking thanks to alt.folklore.urban and having to debunk computer virus myths as part of my job, so I was luckily able to cement those moments in my memory. Yes, I had experienced a spooky premonition a few times where I knew what was going to happen in the future, only for it to totally not happen at all. So the next time I had a spooky premonition that did turn out to be right I knew it was just a mundane coincidence and nothing at all paranormal.
 
AmyStrange's claim isn't data. it's a claim. Do we have any way to confirm that the incident happened as claimed? No. Do we have any reason to believe it cannot be explained as coincidence or normal talent? No. Do we have any reason to believe it can be explained by as yet unevidenced, unspecified "paranormal" phenomena? No. Do we have any reason to believe the phenomenon AmyStrange claims is repeatable, observable, measurable? Not really, no.

You're saying the claim can't even be studied scientifically, only accepted or rejected on faith alone.

No. I say nothing should be concluded based on a standalone claim. Not provisionally, not tentatively, nothing, and certainly not a binary faith valuation.

Why do you object to people putting their faith in the null hypothesis, in this situation?

For the same reasons I do so forum-wide. There is no reason to conclude anything if you lack sufficient information. Conclusions should be the last step, not the first or second.

Do we come to even tentative conclusions based on one side of a news story? I don't, and have been lobbying that very point here for years. "Insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion" is a legitimate viewpoint.
 
Making it literally impossible for subject to even make an observation. That's literally the definition of closed-mindedness.
The subject can make all the observations she wants. She shouldn’t draw any conclusions from until she has a firm ground for these conclusions.
 
You're putting words in my mouth. Please don't.

I don't know what the hell AmyStrange experienced. I'm certainly not special pleading for a different standard. I'm saying that handwaving inconvenient data as coincidence is unskeptical.

I've not put any words into your mouth I simply used your argument to comment on the flies appearing above a piece of rotting meat in the bottom of my compost bin. Neither you nor I saw what happened, using your reasoning regarding AmyS's claim we are "handwaving" away the idea that flies are spontaneously generated by rotting meat.

However it isn't handwaving as we know that rotting meat does not spontaneously generate flies, we don't need to re-research every appearance of flies over rotting meat, we know that rotting meat doesn't spontaneously generate flies. With AmyS's experience we know the paranormal doesn't exist, therefore whatever they experienced wasn't paranormal.

You seem massively confident that the paranormal has been exhaustively studied and satisfactorily explained. I think it was a fairly trivial and spotty effort, largely resulting in "not proven" more than "proven impossible", as you say.

There were many teams of scientists researching the claims of paranormal powers for decades, in different countries, different universities, different militaries and so on, thousands of scientists examined the claims. The research was anything but "trivial". And remember people started with the expectation that paranormal powers existed, being the first to prove it would have been a Nobel prize level of recognition and kudos.

(After those decades our knowledge of how the world works has also advanced and as I said earlier we now know there is simply no gap left to hide paranormal powers.)

Our knowledge that paranormal powers do not exist is as conclusive as us knowing rotting meat doesn't spontaneously generate flies, that the body is not composed of four fluid humours, that the earth orbits the sun, and the earth is not flat.

Anyone today holding out for the paranormal to exist is the direct equivalent of the nutters who claim the earth is flat.

As long as you handwave the AmyStrange cases as coincidental, you are begging your own conclusion. You need to actually demonstrate the odds, here, to relegate AmyStrange's experience into statistical noise range. I don't thinknits practical to do, or even possible.

This is your special pleading again; do you think we need to re-research, to re-check every time we see flies above rotting meat that those flies were not spontaneously generated by the rotting meat? Or do you accept that we know that is not the case, so we know that any account of flies above rotting meat is not spontaneous generation?

What it boils down to is that I stick a pin in such phenomena, with a nod to Asimov that we have insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion. You are happy to dismiss anything that does not beg your question. Chocolate and vanilla.

I agree that we do not have enough information to know what happened (I said that earlier), but we can rule some things out based on what we know, so we know whatever the experience was it did not involve paranormal powers as we know they don't exist, exactly like we know flies are not created by spontaneous generation from rotting meat.
 
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Well of course we should. What we shouldn't ever do is handwave away for no reason other than "we don't otherwise like the implication". And that's exactly what posters are demanding here.

Ruling out the paranormal as an explanation is not handwaving anything away, it is a fact we know. Whatever happened was not an example of a paranormal power.


Look at Axxman300's post above. The part about family members being "sensitives" is what I'm talking about. Perhaps they are picking up on signals that we don't entirely understand. But posters here would handwave it all away as coincidence, and that's wrong. We don't have to accept that it is paranormal, of course (duh), but we don't need to default to the null or any other premature conclusions.

No they wouldn't, what they would do is start with the knowledge we have about the world, one facet of that knowledge is that the paranormal doesn't exist so that whatever happened we know it was not paranormal. It is like saying when we investigate a plane crash we know it didn't fly into the mountain range that surrounds the flat earth, since we know those mountains do not exist.
 
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No. I say nothing should be concluded based on a standalone claim. Not provisionally, not tentatively, nothing, and certainly not a binary faith valuation.

No claim stands alone, there are some things we know about the world that will always apply to any claim. One of those things is that the paranormal doesn't exist. So whatever claim is made we know the explanation will never be that it was paranormal.
For the same reasons I do so forum-wide. There is no reason to conclude anything if you lack sufficient information. Conclusions should be the last step, not the first or second.
Do we come to even tentative conclusions based on one side of a news story? I don't, and have been lobbying that very point here for years. "Insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion" is a legitimate viewpoint.

You are acting as if we start afresh every time something happens, but we don't. We start with a lot things already known. When I see the flies above the rotting meat I don't start with a blank page and have to re-research whether the flies were created by spontaneous generation, I know they didn't arise spontaneously from the rotting meat. Or do you hold that we can't know anything, so we do have to start every time with a blank page?
 
@Darat:

Your entire position seems to ride on "paranormal" phenomena being disproven. I disagree. They have "not been proven", so it is fair to refuse to accept such a conclusion.

Paranormal means "purported phenomena beyond the scope of normal scientific understanding". Usually, we mean this one kind of hocus pocus bull **** or other, but I am not restricting it to abracadabra only; Dark Matter can easily fall under such an umbrella. We have no scientific understanding of vast quantities of matter that are nonetheless undetectable, correct?

My point is not to allow for the supernatural, it's simply to not close doors that you feel might lead that way. I say leave them open and see where it goes. Save your conclusions and preemptive denials till you've seen what there is to see. When you dismiss claims as coincidence, you are closing a door that might have led to an interesting study.

AxxMan300's "sensitives", again. You and many here would be quick to wave their abilities off as lucky guesses. I'd rather keep poking around without dismissals. Maybe they are particularly observant about a newly pregnant woman having increased breast size, or that pregnant glow some of us are familiar with. Knowing the sex correctly? Beats me, but again, I'm not willing to handwave it away. There may turn out to be a physiological cue they are picking up on, that science is currently unaware of. You guys who pooh-pooh weird stuff as coincidence are shutting down that door tight. I'd prefer to be on Team Keep Listening.
 
You don't need to have come to a conclusion in order to have a working assumption, and having a working assumption doesn't stop you considering any new evidence that becomes available. It doesn't even stop you advising those who make claims you believe are most likely mistaken of the best way to collect that evidence, and actively helping them do so.
 
You don't need to have come to a conclusion in order to have a working assumption, and having a working assumption doesn't stop you considering any new evidence that becomes available. It doesn't even stop you advising those who make claims you believe are most likely mistaken of the best way to collect that evidence, and actively helping them do so.

Agreed. Others here could well heed that:

So there's no ability and it was a random coincidence.

End of thread
 
AxxMan300's "sensitives", again. You and many here would be quick to wave their abilities off as lucky guesses. I'd rather keep poking around without dismissals. Maybe they are particularly observant about a newly pregnant woman having increased breast size, or that pregnant glow some of us are familiar with. Knowing the sex correctly? Beats me, but again, I'm not willing to handwave it away. There may turn out to be a physiological cue they are picking up on, that science is currently unaware of. You guys who pooh-pooh weird stuff as coincidence are shutting down that door tight. I'd prefer to be on Team Keep Listening.

Honestly, they just understood man-woman/husband & wife schedules. My aunt called about mom being pregnant with me, but never about my other two brothers. In my case it was simple math, counting down from my parent's wedding day in spring, 1963. She never visited the house or had physical contact with my mom. But the key thing here is she was 1 for 3, but that one time was all anyone in the family would talk about. And that's the problem with this subject, people get excited about that one semi-lucky guess, and not how she missed the arrival of my two brothers.

Some people are just more preceptive, and everyone here acknowledges this. The issue is pushing this fact across the line of "science doesn't have all the answers".
 
IThere were many teams of scientists researching the claims of paranormal powers for decades, in different countries, different universities, different militaries and so on, thousands of scientists examined the claims. The research was anything but "trivial". And remember people started with the expectation that paranormal powers existed, being the first to prove it would have been a Nobel prize level of recognition and kudos.

There is a reason most of the Parapsychology programs of the late 1960s, early 1970s are long gone. They tried to produce the various phenomena in the lab, or under strict conditions, and failed. The ghost hunters had interesting anecdotal experiences, but recorded nothing just like me.

To my knowledge the only fascinating bit of "evidence" was one parapsychology team recorded the drop in background radiation ahead of some kind of minor incident. The problem is this article has been lost to time, and at this point I can't even say if I'm citing correctly, or which school recorded this information.

To the main point, while searching for that background radiation story, I came across this piece on the UCLA Parapsychology program. It is written by one of the UCLA team, and if you pay attention while reading it, you'll see why the parapsychology program was terminated:

https://www.teemingbrain.com/2012/1...rise-and-fall-of-the-ucla-parapsychology-lab/

Here you have a PhD writing what is a very unscientific assessment of his account of the end of the program, where a dream is considered a key piece of evidence, instead of it representing that he, and the other team members knew their days were numbered at UCLA. And this is the problem and risk with any insular scientific investigation - group think and confirmation bias. The paranormal is seductive, and it is easy for rational people to get sucked in deep. The question isn't, "does a cat know it's chasing its own tail?", but "does the cat care it's chasing its own tail?".
 
If the kind of clairvoyance AS describes were real, it would be a Military Occupational Specialty. It would be a recruiting goal for universities and businesses. Congress would be holding hearings about clairvoyants, their place in public policy, their implications for national security, etc. Every think tank and punditry would have job openings for qualified candidates. Nate Silver would have set up a whole department at 538.com. Bookmakers would be vying to get AS on-side, telling him he doesn't have a gambling problem, he has a gambling solution.

AS's claim is adequately rebutted by the economic argument.
 
There is a reason most of the Parapsychology programs of the late 1960s, early 1970s are long gone. They tried to produce the various phenomena in the lab, or under strict conditions, and failed. The ghost hunters had interesting anecdotal experiences, but recorded nothing just like me.

To my knowledge the only fascinating bit of "evidence" was one parapsychology team recorded the drop in background radiation ahead of some kind of minor incident. The problem is this article has been lost to time, and at this point I can't even say if I'm citing correctly, or which school recorded this information.

To the main point, while searching for that background radiation story, I came across this piece on the UCLA Parapsychology program. It is written by one of the UCLA team, and if you pay attention while reading it, you'll see why the parapsychology program was terminated:

https://www.teemingbrain.com/2012/1...rise-and-fall-of-the-ucla-parapsychology-lab/

Here you have a PhD writing what is a very unscientific assessment of his account of the end of the program, where a dream is considered a key piece of evidence, instead of it representing that he, and the other team members knew their days were numbered at UCLA. And this is the problem and risk with any insular scientific investigation - group think and confirmation bias. The paranormal is seductive, and it is easy for rational people to get sucked in deep. The question isn't, "does a cat know it's chasing its own tail?", but "does the cat care it's chasing its own tail?".


Noetic science might prove it's real.

https://noetic.org/science/research/

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No. I say nothing should be concluded based on a standalone claim. Not provisionally, not tentatively, nothing, and certainly not a binary faith valuation.
I can't speak for anyone else, but I for one am not concluding anything based on a standalone claim. I'm concluding something based on AS's claim in the context of the history of such claims and the history of research into such claims.

Unless you mean "standalone claim" in the sense of a claim that has no support. In that sense, yes, I'm concluding the claim is bunk precisely because it doesn't have a leg to stand on.
 
[Regarding the objection to the null hypothesis]
For the same reasons I do so forum-wide. There is no reason to conclude anything if you lack sufficient information. Conclusions should be the last step, not the first or second.
It depends on the context. If someone makes a positive claim for your consideration, and it has no support, then the last step may be arrived at immediately.

It's totally okay to tell a claimant, "there's nothing to your claim as it stands right now, so I'm going to dismiss it and move on."

Do we come to even tentative conclusions based on one side of a news story? I don't, and have been lobbying that very point here for years. "Insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion" is a legitimate viewpoint.
"Insufficient data [to justify accepting your claim]" is a meaningful conclusion. Dismissing a claim that lacks sufficient data to be accepted is a reasonable response.
 


FROM: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Noetic_science

Unsurprisingly, noetic science has come under criticism from skeptics and actual scientists, and the organization Quackwatch has placed the Institute of Noetic Science on the "questionable organizations" list.


Doesn't really mean much to me, especially since they don't really explain what the criticism is all about.

Do you have anything more than that like what the criticism actually is?

Personally, I think they have a better chance of finding out the truth than ALL the skeptics in the world combined.

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Noetic science might prove it's real.

https://noetic.org/science/research/

So? Go tell them about your psychic premonitions, if you think they're onto something. They've been at it for fifty years and still haven't come up with anything useful.

If the Shining is at all real, and you have even the dimmest spark of it, you owe it to the world to donate your time and effort to researching the phenomenon. You could be making important contributions to missing persons cases, the rescue of kidnap victims, the hunt for serial killers... You could be making steady money, which you could then donate to worthy causes.

IONS is clearly willing and able to spend good money on any avenue of noetic research they see as promising. Have you even told them you exist?
 
So? Go tell them about your psychic premonitions, if you think they're onto something. They've been at it for fifty years and still haven't come up with anything useful.

If the Shining is at all real, and you have even the dimmest spark of it, you owe it to the world to donate your time and effort to researching the phenomenon. You could be making important contributions to missing persons cases, the rescue of kidnap victims, the hunt for serial killers... You could be making steady money, which you could then donate to worthy causes.

IONS is clearly willing and able to spend good money on any avenue of noetic research they see as promising. Have you even told them you exist?


Why should I?

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ETA: I did sign up for their newsletter.
 
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I thought my humanitarian argument was pretty accessible already.

I've tried the appeal to empathy. I've tried the appeal to cupidity. I don't really have an appeal to alien space robots who aren't entirely sure how to human.


Hmmm... You guys don't believe me, so why would the IONS believe me?

I signed up for their newsletter. I should be able to tell right off (I hope) if they're legit or not.

You might believe me or not, but I'm just as skeptical as the rest of you. The only real difference is that I'm not willing to dismiss the paranormal as quickly as y'all are.

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Hmmm... You guys don't believe me, so why would the IONS believe me?
Well, IONS wants to believe. And they're actually investing in research into these kinds of alleged phenomena. So they're already more likely to give you the benefit of the doubt, and look into working with you to better understand your abilities.

I signed up for their newsletter. I should be able to tell right off (I hope) if they're legit or not.
You might want to figure out what you mean by "legit".

My take is that they are sincere in their beliefs and conscientious in their work, but the reality they're trying to discover is a pipe dream. YMMV.

You might believe me or not, but I'm just as skeptical as the rest of you. The only real difference is that I'm not willing to dismiss the paranormal as quickly as y'all are.
Nobody here is dismissing the paranormal quickly. I didn't hear about clairvoyance yesterday, and wake up this morning resolved to dismiss it out of hand. It's taken me years, to get to this point.

Your case is easy to dismiss, not because I'm too lazy to give it proper consideration, but because it's a very familiar pattern, that I've had lots of practice with.
 
Well, IONS wants to believe. And they're actually investing in research into these kinds of alleged phenomena. So they're already more likely to give you the benefit of the doubt, and look into working with you to better understand your abilities.


You might want to figure out what you mean by "legit".

My take is that they are sincere in their beliefs and conscientious in their work, but the reality they're trying to discover is a pipe dream. YMMV.


Nobody here is dismissing the paranormal quickly. I didn't hear about clairvoyance yesterday, and wake up this morning resolved to dismiss it out of hand. It's taken me years, to get to this point.

Your case is easy to dismiss, not because I'm too lazy to give it proper consideration, but because it's a very familiar pattern, that I've had lots of practice with.


My definition as a skeptic would be to see if they're actually using the scientific method to do their research, or if they just spout mystical **** which won't fly with me.

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