Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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U.S. National Climate Assessment

The third U.S. National Climate Assessment is scheduled for release on May 6.

http://www.globalchange.gov/

Assessments are essential tools for linking science and decision making. They survey, integrate, and synthesize science, within and between scientific disciplines and across sectors and regions
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The NCA is an important resource for understanding and communicating climate change science and impacts in the United States. It informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge.
The NCA also establishes consistent methods for evaluating climate impacts in the U.S. in the context of broader global change. Finally, findings from the NCA provide input to Federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities, and businesses as they create more sustainable and environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future.
•First National Climate Assessment
•Second National Climate Assessment
•Information on the Draft Third National Assessment
•National Climate Assessment Fact Sheet
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It is helpful to have so many international and national climate science studies and reports coming out in rapid succession.
 
Consequences of AGW

are coming home to roost and we are barely into the Anthropocene with only .8 C globally

Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor (NYH) region have occurred since 2010 (Mar. 2010, Aug. 2011, and Oct. 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990.
To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide (AMST).

Approximately half of long-term variance is anti-correlated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10-year storm-tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea-level since 1856, the 10-year flood-level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20-25%.
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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...59574/abstract


Storms Are 20 Times More Likely To Top New York City’s Seawall Than In The Mid-1800s
BY JEFF SPROSS ON APRIL 28, 2014 AT 11:51 AM

New York City has allocated almost $300 million to increase its resiliency in the face of such storms, and the task force dedicated to guiding the reconstruction effort said in August that “decision makers at all levels must recognize that climate change and the resulting increase in risks from extreme weather have eliminated the option of simply building back to outdated standards and expecting better outcomes after the next extreme event.”

Another recent study by Climate Central found that anticipated sea level rise puts 84,000 people and $32 billion in property at risk
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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/201...0-times-worse/

2014 should be very interesting with El Nino looming....:boggled:
 
The last El Nino was the 1998 outlier that was so bad deniers still use it to say there's been no warming. I really don't want to see how awful a new one of those would be.
 
I see no point in anticipating an El Nino; if it happens we'll know soon enough what the results are.

The story I find most interesting is the California drought. How will that impact food prices, and how will that in turn impact public opinion on AGW? And how will the mainstream media handle it?

An actual experience of what is predicted to become more common might concentrate minds wonderfully. It's the difference between what might happen and what might happen again; the latter tends to have more influence on risk assessment.

It also puts the supposed advantages of CO2 fertilisation in perspective. Which is to say, a vanishing one :cool:.
 
Would you say the same for a major cyclone or hurricane??
....El Nino can kill many thousands - the last one did.23,000 dead and 32 billion in damages.

So indeed it's a good idea, a very prudent idea to prepare and anticipate just as one would for any natural disaster when you are in the affected area and this one looks to be the equal if not greater than the 1997/98 event.

It should indeed show where the supposed "pause" buried it's secrets and what a motherlode of heat is lurking there.

•••

The headache with the drought is that the link to AGW is uncertain tho certainly the shifting jet stream and blocking highs seem to be prolonging it in the case of California.

Maybe the extreme winter weather and drought and tornados are a wake up call that ma Nature is a bit "tetched"....

Certainly coastal and flood prone cities will have a myriad of planning and budgetting meetings to undertake as Britain is undergoing since last winter's submerging which will see some areas go undefended in the future. It's likely to be very good for coastal wetlands as they are more and more being seen as first line of defense.

I wonder tho how litigation would fare? Acid rain for instance SO2 - it took the courts to get it controlled.....will we see the same in terms of AGW consequences and CO2 given the companies knew the score back in 1995 that burning fossil fuels would cause the planet to warm.
Courts tend to frown on wilfull damage.
 
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BEGINNING about 1,100 years ago, what is now California baked in two droughts, the first lasting 220 years and the second 140 years. Each was much more intense than the mere six-year dry spells that afflict modern California from time to time, new studies of past climates show. The findings suggest, in fact, that relatively wet periods like the 20th century have been the exception rather than the rule in California for at least the last 3,500 years, and that mega-droughts are likely to recur.

The evidence for the big droughts comes from an analysis of the trunks of trees that grew in the dry beds of lakes, swamps and rivers in and adjacent to the Sierra Nevada, but died when the droughts ended and the water levels rose. Immersion in water has preserved the trunks over the centuries.
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http://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/19/science/severe-ancient-droughts-a-warning-to-california.html
 
Early onset of AGW....too little data for the Arctic....

The Arctic amplification is giving scientists a glimpse into the consequences of a warming planet as its moving so much faster.
Canada for instance winters are 3.6 C warmer than 50 years ago which is an astonishing figure.
Now the US scientists are calling for better information...

Bigger, Better Arctic Studies Needed, U.S. Report Argues
30 April 2014 6:00 pm

A new ocean. An unpredictable landscape changing faster than any other place on Earth. And remote, impenetrable places that are hard to reach and sit in darkness for months each year. Those are just some of the things awaiting researchers who will confront the challenge of studying the Arctic in the 21st century, concludes a report released yesterday.

“The climate, biology, and society in the Arctic are changing in rapid, complex, and interactive ways, with effects throughout the region and, increasingly, the globe,” finds the report from the National Research Council (NRC) of the U.S. National Academies. “Understanding the Arctic system has never been more important.”

The study, sponsored by several U.S. science agencies, aims to identify “the questions that in five or ten years’ time we will kick ourselves for not asking now,” the NRC expert panel writes.

There’s no shortage of questions emerging as the Arctic melts. Sea ice is vanishing at an alarming rate. Warm water is entering the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean, with the impacts still unclear. The Arctic Ocean is becoming fresher due to melting ice and changes in hydrology on land. As permafrost melts, some trees are growing faster, while others find their roots inundated with liquid water. “The cascading ecological impacts (e.g. on bears, caribou, small mammals and insects) are unknown,” the report notes.
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more
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/04/bigger-better-arctic-studies-needed-u.s.-report-argues
 
macdoc said:
The headache with the drought is that the link to AGW is uncertain ...
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The import of ther drought, to my mind, is in the example it sets of such a drought. It can't be attributed to AGW but it can be presented as an example of what is predicted to become more frequent. That makes it more concrete, especially if it's uncomfortable.

Even the act of denying the attribution to AGW will tend to make the connection in people's minds. People are like that, in bulk. It's what powers the Dark Arts of Persuasion.
 
macdoc said:
Certainly coastal and flood prone cities will have a myriad of planning and budgetting meetings to undertake as Britain is undergoing since last winter's submerging which will see some areas go undefended in the future.
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That policy has actually been underway for well over a decade, and it's been pretty effective.

What's remarkable about this last winter is how little flooding there was, and that's down to the Environment Agency and its evidence-based policies. Ten years ago the Wye and the Severn would have been all over three counties after that lot, but there were few problems. Even the Thames only became threatening towards the end and didn't do much damage.

The Levels were screwed with the pumps available, but you don't get much slack in these days of austerity. Some things will have to be adapted to. And a high-status bog-burial or two couldn't do any harm.
 
lomiller said:
Know what else started 1100 years ago? The Medieval Climate Optimum. Until ~1950 this was the warmest period in several thousand years. If the MWP caused severe droughts in California, it stands to reason the even higher temperatures we are seeing now would cause even more severe droughts.
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You're conflating two separate talking points, one of which (the MWP) is global while the other is only about California. They're like chalk and cheese :rolleyes:.
 
lomiller said:
Know what else started 1100 years ago? The Medieval Climate Optimum. Until ~1950 this was the warmest period in several thousand years. If the MWP caused severe droughts in California, it stands to reason the even higher temperatures we are seeing now would cause even more severe droughts.
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Sorry, I'm just trying to get a clear picture of what is being discussed. So looking at the composite surface temperature reconstructions over the last ~1500 (or so) years we see something like:

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And we are qualifying the Medieval Climate Anomaly to run from when till when?

(The above graphs are from "Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly" - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.177.6392&rep=rep1&type=pdf sorry about the slight misalignment its an artifact of the transfer from the paper to a JREF messageboard.)

Note, I'm just trying to make sure I've got the background straight as I look at the discussion.
 
Trakar said:
Sorry, I'm just trying to get a clear picture of what is being discussed. So looking at the composite surface temperature reconstructions over the last ~1500 (or so) years we see something like:
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Not really discussing anything. r-j was trying to insinuate that California droughts are normal and not related global warming by referencing mega-droughts starting 1100 years ago. I was just deflating that by pointing out a period noted as being particularly warm also started 1100 years ago.

I’m fully aware the Medieval Climate Anomaly wasn’t expressed as warmth globally, but being forced to raise that issue themselves also puts the climate deniers in a bind.

macdoc said:
Isn't the better reference the Holocene Optimum about 8k bp??

Closer to where we are now.
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For now I'm just want to poking at the inconsistencies not trying to draw real conclusions about drought in California.
 
The past climate, and especially the rainfall amounts, of California, is well known, because of all the old trees to study. The rainfall patterns of the last thousand years are well known, not that anyone could tell from the media and alarmist science.

An area that has two thousand year old trees still growing, is pretty easy to study.
 
At least some action is occurring on mitigation ...interesting that carbon pollution is used as a term

Washington State Announces Effort To Take Climate Fight Into Its Own Hands
BY TOM KENWORTHY ON APRIL 30, 2014 AT 11:36 AM

Even as a climate change stalemate persists in Washington, D.C., the other Washington is embarking on a broad-based effort to reduce carbon pollution and expand the use of clean energy.

On Tuesday, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee signed an executive order that creates a task force on reducing carbon emissions and directs it to design a “cap-and-market” program to meet emission goals. That program would set firm limits on carbon emissions and binding requirements to meet the limits.
Inslee’s directive also orders state agencies to concentrate in five other areas: reducing and eventually eliminating the use of coal to produce electric power; developing and promoting the use of clean transportation and transportation fuels; spurring the development and use of renewable energy; developing a “smart building program” to increase energy efficiency in public and private buildings; and cutting the state government’s own carbon footprint.

“This is the right time to act, the right place to act, and we are the right people to act,” Inslee said in announcing the executive order. Most elements of the plan will require legislative approval or funding.

Six years ago the Washington legislature set a timeline for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the near, mid, and long term, but the state is not on track to meet those reduction goals without changes in policies, according to a consultant retained by a state climate workgroup.

The carbon reduction roadmap outlined Tuesday comes six months after Inslee and the governors of Oregon and California and the premier of British Columbia pledged to work together in a “far-reaching strategic alignment to combat climate change and promote clean energy.” That non-binding agreement called on Washington and Oregon to develop carbon pricing programs, as California already has, to implement clean fuel standards and to promote clean energy and energy efficiency.
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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/30/3432504/washington-climate-change-fight/

Clearly some jurisdictions are fed up with stalemate and like Sweden are taking executive action and moving forward on their own.

and maybe now the courts will get in on the act

Koch Brothers To Face Lawsuit Over ‘Swirling’ Chicago Petcoke Pollution
BY EMILY ATKIN ON APRIL 30, 2014 AT 4:20 PM
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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/30/3432796/koch-getting-sued/

To kill coal.
 
r-j said:
The past climate, and especially the rainfall amounts, of California, is well known, because of all the old trees to study. The rainfall patterns of the last thousand years are well known, not that anyone could tell from the media and alarmist science.
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So how did you hear about it? And what are these patterns of which you speak? (I'm not a great expert on California myself.)

An area that has two thousand year old trees still growing, is pretty easy to study.
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If you know what you're looking at. Dendrochronology is a science, carried out by scientists, and reported on in relevant journals. Interpretation of tree-rings requires an understanding of numerous factors which affect tree growth, such as weather, tree-density and exposure. Not easy, but quite possible for those who know how. Fortunately scientists have been wasting taxpayer money on such research for decades now.

I'm still not clear on the relevance of this.
 
lomiller said:
Not really discussing anything. r-j was trying to insinuate that California droughts are normal and not related global warming by referencing mega-droughts starting 1100 years ago. I was just deflating that by pointing out a period noted as being particularly warm also started 1100 years ago.

I’m fully aware the Medieval Climate Anomaly wasn’t expressed as warmth globally, but being forced to raise that issue themselves also puts the climate deniers in a bind.
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Oh, I really wasn't trying to argue anything, I just wanted to make sure I understood the setting and I put up some mainstream surface temperature reconstructions so that there was a good background for the discussion. I have little doubt about understandings, but it's best to have these types of setting issues established early in any discussion, especially when some discussion participants seem very reluctant about actually acknowledging the overall settings for such local/regional climate issues.

IIRC, the primary issue involving the extreme drought issues, which if I'm not mistaken are also tied to the decline of several meso/north - American civs of the approximate time frames, are believed to have been primarily the result of some peculiar oceanic circulation cycles. with severe droughts common around 100-200AD, another century or two period in the ~800-1100AD timeframe, as well as several other pre-Columbian and early Columbian periods.

IOW, no surprises, most of the SW US has long been arid and dry, our redirection of water has greened much of the central valley, but that isn't a natural state for this region of the globe.
 
r-j said:
The past climate, and especially the rainfall amounts, of California, is well known, because of all the old trees to study. The rainfall patterns of the last thousand years are well known, not that anyone could tell from the media and alarmist science.

An area that has two thousand year old trees still growing, is pretty easy to study.
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indeed both the redwoods in their coastal rainforest environs and the drought tolerant bristlecone pines in the high mountain climes give us a very good record of the climate in those regions over the last several thousand years. Droughts, even extended droughts are relatively common in most of the SW US. As to whether these patterns continue as they have for the last several thousand years, or whether they change in response to shifting climes air circulation patterns of the warming planet is something we will watching to see.
 
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