Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[acbytesla]

I truly can't put much into Rudi's guess of what time it was. He didn't have a watch or other time device.

I guess I haven't made the point that we know so little about when and how much she ate and for that matter what state her system was in and add that to the vagaries of the science and competency of the ILE it is hard to frame the time narrowly using the digestion information.

Having said that it has always been clear that she must have been murdered before 11. The phone activity is the strongest evidence pinpointing the time or at least the end time possible.

I think that Meredith was hungover big time and would have come home and laid down for a nap if not just crashed for the night. In her condition she might have just forsaken getting ready for bed and just thrown herself on the bed. The 9:05 murder time makes me wonder what Rudi was doing for the time between then and the phone ping which may well have away from the cottage.

How do you know that Rudy didn't have a timepiece? You really don't Grinder. Also, he took Meredith's phones. They have clocks on them. I also believe that when he was arrested in Milan, he had a phone and ladies gold watch with him. Maybe someone can correct me on the phone. But he definitely had a watch with him then and that was 4 days before the murder.

 

[Bill Williams]

Incidentally, I note with amusement (once again) that recent pro-guilt analysis of the bathmat casually throws in a "second foot print" on the mat - which others have then picked up upon and declared to be that of Knox's bare foot. "Gotcha!" they cry!

But the morons fail to notice the very prominent police ruler in the photo, which can easily be compared with the "foot print". Doing so reveals the "foot print" to be some 19cm in length. And that's smaller than any adult female foot print length, and definitely far smaller than Knox's own foot print, which is some 22.5cm in length.

I dunno - maybe a child was involved.....? Or maybe the pro-guilt idiots are only seeing what they want to see, with little recourse to objectivity or basic rational analysis? I wonder which?

I have long since given up reading pro-guilt sites, for the very reasons implied above.

So - to be a broken record, I've been printing this in threads and blogs for anyone who will listen... apparently few do....

.... maybe it's not important the conclusion I draw; but the conclusion is this:

The pro-guilt commentators are now light-years away from what Judge Massei concluded in his motivations report. I have an inkling why that is, but the fact remains: to guilters it is as if the March 2013 ISC ruling quashed not just the Hellmann appeal's acquittals, but also the Massei court of 1st instance convictions.

I mean that. The guilters with the theories and "all the other evidence" they espouse do a lot of things, but one of the things they do is debunk Massei.

I guess the March 2013 ISC ruling, in fact, DID debunk Massei, in the sense of debunking Massei's reasons for convicting. For instance the March 2013 ISC motivation report said that the "sex game gone wrong" motive was key to understanding this murder.

Well.... Massei disagreed with Mignini's sex-game theory, which, apparently, Mignini himself only advanced at his closing argument of Dec 2009. Massei said it was Rudy's crime, caused by Rudy's lust. Period. Amanda and Raffaele's involvement, acc. to Massei, was literally a last second "choice for evil" in helping Rudy and not defending Meredith from an assault.

Guilters also disagree with Massei on mixed blood (Massei found none), psychopathology (Massei found Knox and Sollecito to be normal, relatively high achievers inexplicably choosing evil), and on relations between Meredith and Amanda (which Massei found as normal).

Now Guilters disagree with Massei on the bathmat. Massei says NOTHING about two footprints, and agrees enough with Prof. Vinci, enough to quote at length Vinci's contribution to the court, "It is no good making ANY determination about that bathmat footprint by looking at a photo."

Yet this is what Guilters are doing. Massei implies that the bathmat evidence does rule Raffaele out, and does not rule Guede in.

Do Guilters believe Massei and his court any more? I've asked that question for three years. Still no answer, particularly from Guilters.

ETA - Both Dr. Mull and Edward McCall at least have the decency to name it as a disagreement they have with Judge Massei, Massei heavily implying that Raffaele called the Carabinieiri BEFORE the arrival of the postal police. Mull/McCall concede that Massei says this, in an effort to disagree with him.

But that's the only item I've ever seen even dealing with this conundrum.... do guilters believe Massei any more?

 

[Bruce Fischer]

How did he roll up the tee shirts?

Meredith's clothing was pushed or pulled up to expose her body. This is evidence that suggests a sexual assault.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

I'm not sure that Meredith was actually raped Bruce...by that I mean penis penetration. Sexually assaulted..no doubt. The position of her clothes as well as DNA from Rudy inside her vagina prove that. Whether or not the stain on the pillow case is actually semen is up for debate and not confirmed.

I find all the reconstructions of precisely what happened inside her bedroom that night doubtful. Not that someone hasn't accurately reconstructed the murder, just that there really is no way to know for sure by the evidence alone.

Guede digitally raped Meredith and possible masturbated at the scene. Why hasn't the possible semen stain been tested from a crime scene where a sexual assault took place?

Maybe Guede accidentally ejaculated while wandering around like a Zombie.

 

[Anode]

Guede digitally raped Meredith and possible masturbated at the scene. Why hasn't the possible semen stain been tested from a crime scene where a sexual assault took place?

My cynical side says it's because they didn't want to gather anything that would take the focus away from convicting AK and RS. They knew it probably wasn't RS's.

Just like when they didn't take apart "the knife" to try to find blood down in the handle. By finding a clean handle it would prove to most that "the knife" was not the murder weapon, since you cannot possibly clean it completely without breaking it open.

Maybe Guede accidentally ejaculated while wandering around like a Zombie.

I hate it when that happens.

 

[acbytesla]

Guede digitally raped Meredith and possible masturbated at the scene. Why hasn't the possible semen stain been tested from a crime scene where a sexual assault took place?

Maybe Guede accidentally ejaculated while wandering around like a Zombie.

I don't know if digital penetration is considered rape in Italy. It is in the US as of 2012. Not sure what it was in 2007 I agree that the stain should have been tested.

USDOJ
Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFriday, January 6, 2012
Attorney General Eric Holder Announces Revisions to the Uniform Crime Report’s Definition of Rape

The new definition of rape is: “The penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim.”

 

[Planigale]

Yes. The bell curve of probability distribution for T(lag) is an asymmetric normal curve. This means that it obeys the basic properties (and shapes) of a normal curve, but that it's asymmetric around the median (which is the top of the curve).

The reason why it's asymmetric is simple: the left hand side of the curve is - by definition - hemmed in by t=0. A person cannot start to pass a meal from the stomach before they have even ingested it! What this means in practice is that the left hand side of the curve (i.e. to the left of the peak of the curve) is slightly squashed horizontally relative to the right hand side of the curve.

Other than that, though, the regular rules of normal distribution apply, provided that you use slightly different variances either side of the median. It also means that the median and the mean are not quite the same - as they would be in a pure normal curve. But it's perfectly possible - and perfectly appropriate - to apply standard normal curve analysis to the right hand side of the curve for T(lag).

Incidentally, as Kaosium has already pointed out, this curve must necessarily fall to zero either side of the median. And the recognisable shape of the curve, generated from experimental data, shows clearly that the curve must fall to zero within a fairly tightly-defined region on the right hand side of the curve, which corresponds to somewhere between 3 and 4 hours after ingestion.

You are both right and wrong. In general particularly if using the 't' distribution values near to the median (say +/- 2 SD) can be analysed using classical stats with little loss in accuracy even with skewed data. However once one gets to the tail one needs either to transform the data or use a non normal distribution.

However I now realise this is probably irrelevant and a bit posey, the point we are all making is that death was likely within 21.00 to 21.30 and unlikely to be after 22.00. I think I (and probably some others) am trying to over analyse stuff.

 

[Planigale]

I'm not sure that Meredith was actually raped Bruce...by that I mean penis penetration. Sexually assaulted..no doubt. The position of her clothes as well as DNA from Rudy inside her vagina prove that. Whether or not the stain on the pillow case is actually semen is up for debate and not confirmed.

I find all the reconstructions of precisely what happened inside her bedroom that night doubtful. Not that someone hasn't accurately reconstructed the murder, just that there really is no way to know for sure by the evidence alone.

I am not sure what rape is where you come from but where I come from it is forced penetration (of a man or woman) by any object. (I am a bit too angry to fact check but if I have the definition of rape under English law wrong I am sure AL will gently correct me).

 

[Planigale]

If I was the Irish, I wouldn't extradite IRA suspects to you either. The
English should have never invade Ireland in the first place. Come to think of it...what the hell were you guys doing over here in 1812?? LOL

I'm with you on making predictions Anglo. This case has more things going on, than just about any I've ever read about. There are countless reasons for why this case could get thrown out...by everyone.

Also, politically, it really is not going to look good in the US if they extradite Amanda. She has a lot of popular support here...and the extradition process would only result in a magnifying glass on the case and the process in Italy....which would probably result in more support. I think...mind you I think, that this is a big can of worms politically speaking...that no one really wants to open. But hey....I've been wrong before.

1812 isn't that when the US tried to invade Canada and got soundly thrashed! (Oh the embarrassment losing a war to the Canadians!) I just loved Canadian Bacon.

 

[anglolawyer]

I am not sure what rape is where you come from but where I come from it is forced penetration (of a man or woman) by any object. (I am a bit too angry to fact check but if I have the definition of rape under English law wrong I am sure AL will gently correct me).

It was just penile penetration when I studied criminal law but now I think it's what you said. It doesn't really matter what word we use. Guede's DNA showed up on the vaginal swab and it's just ridiculous of Dan to be suggesting that happened accidentally.

 

[Planigale]

This was a horrible thing, i apologise if I have been a bit abrupt with anyone but I find discussing whether this was rape or not a bit too legalistic. What i hate is that Guede was not convicted of sexual assault, the prosecution did not argue for this, but AK and RS were. You may say does it matter, he was convicted of murder, but I think he was a rapist and should have been convicted of rape and murder,

 

[Grinder]

You are both right and wrong. In general particularly if using the 't' distribution values near to the median (say +/- 2 SD) can be analysed using classical stats with little loss in accuracy even with skewed data. However once one gets to the tail one needs either to transform the data or use a non normal distribution.

However I now realise this is probably irrelevant and a bit posey, the point we are all making is that death was likely within 21.00 to 21.30 and unlikely to be after 22.00. I think I (and probably some others) am trying to over analyse stuff.

Wow. You don't know when or exactly what she ate but you can narrow the TOD down to 1/2 hour.

The GE science in and of itself isn't that precise.

We only know that the beginning time is 9 because Sophie dropped her off. If they ate at 5:30 or 6 the most likely TOD from GE would be 6:50 to 7:20 using one of the T(lag) study numbers.

Death is most likely between 9 and 10 and mostly because of the phone activity.

 

[anglolawyer]

This was a horrible thing, i apologise if I have been a bit abrupt with anyone but I find discussing whether this was rape or not a bit too legalistic. What i hate is that Guede was not convicted of sexual assault, the prosecution did not argue for this, but AK and RS were. You may say does it matter, he was convicted of murder, but I think he was a rapist and should have been convicted of rape and murder,

Oh, sorry. That does matter. I meant something else.

 

[acbytesla]

1812 isn't that when the US tried to invade Canada and got soundly thrashed! (Oh the embarrassment losing a war to the Canadians!) I just loved Canadian Bacon.

Did Canada exist in 1812? or was that still French and British territory?

I also wouldn't say the US lost that war. I'm pretty sure you could call it a draw as everyone just returned to their original boundaries.

 

[Grinder]

Planigale,

I'm curious what "facts" you are basing your 9 to 9:30 most likely TOD on.

 

[Planigale]

Wow. You don't know when or exactly what she ate but you can narrow the TOD down to 1/2 hour.

The GE science in and of itself isn't that precise.

We only know that the beginning time is 9 because Sophie dropped her off. If they ate at 5:30 or 6 the most likely TOD from GE would be 6:50 to 7:20 using one of the T(lag) study numbers.

Death is most likely between 9 and 10 and mostly because of the phone activity.

I am bad at expressing myself. What I am trying to say is that probability of death increases with time from 21.00. So the probability that the murder happened is greater for 21.00 to 21.30 than 21.30 to 22.00. Just relying on the post mortem findings then death from 22.00 to 22.30 would be less likely still. But including the telephone data, I think death had occurred by 22.00 (my use of 30 minute intervals implies that this is the limit of precision).

 

[platonov]

I don't understand why you think it important, he simply allowed for a huge margin for error as there's little data at the end of these curves. He was never trying to predict anything with the precision you seem to think he was, those error bars are proof of that. The numbers didn't come out rounded off because of the formula he had to use, is that what made you think he was stating it with absolute precision, despite the allowance of massive error bars like that?

Its not important Kaosium – it's all nonsense (it always was – even some of the groupies have figured that out)

Nope – see link.

London John must have forgotten, or wants to forget...
– we skeptics are supposed to learn from our mistakes, not repeat them

 

[Planigale]

Planigale,

I'm curious what "facts" you are basing your 9 to 9:30 most likely TOD on.

The gastric findings at post mortem. We have a limited period in which death could occur, arrival home at about 21.00. We are on the tail of the probability curve, the longer from 21.00 we are the more likely death is. The telephone data i thinks put a limit at about 22.00. Given that the murder has to happen and that takes time i would say that it had not happened between 21.00 and 21.15. I think the likeliest window is 21.15 to 21.45 with 21.15 to 21.30 being more likely than 21.30 to 21.45. 21.45 to 22.00 much less likely as I think there has to be some stuff afterwards before Guede leaves the flat at around 22.00. with dumping the phones around 21.15.

 

[Grinder]

I am bad at expressing myself. What I am trying to say is that probability of death increases with time from 21.00. So the probability that the murder happened is greater for 21.00 to 21.30 than 21.30 to 22.00. Just relying on the post mortem findings then death from 22.00 to 22.30 would be less likely still. But including the telephone data, I think death had occurred by 22.00 (my use of 30 minute intervals implies that this is the limit of precision).

Thanks. The biggest two issues are whether Lalli and the PLE (whoever handled moving the body) accurately ascertained the contents of the duodenum and what time Meredith actually began eating.

The entire pizza dinner time is up in the air as the girls give about an hour spread and at least one source claims Meredith didn't eat much or right away.

If Meredith didn't eat until the apple crisp arrived she may not have started eating until 7:45 or 8 which would make 9:30 - 10 the main time GE would start.

 

[Grinder]

I am bad at expressing myself. What I am trying to say is that probability of death increases with time from 21.00. So the probability that the murder happened is greater for 21.00 to 21.30 than 21.30 to 22.00. Just relying on the post mortem findings then death from 22.00 to 22.30 would be less likely still. But including the telephone data, I think death had occurred by 22.00 (my use of 30 minute intervals implies that this is the limit of precision).

What time did Meredith eat?