Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Grinder]

If there is something wrong with the facts, and I think there is a good chance there is based on the research posted here on T(lag), I think it is far more likely that Meredith ate later than suggested rather than Lalli (or whoever did the autopsy) misreported that there was a full meal still in her stomach.

Meredith may very well have felt somewhat ill and eaten a lot later than her friends. Who would have noticed? They're all watching a movie and chatting, not counting each other's calories.

What we do know is that she had finished her meal by the time she left for home, which means 8:30pm at the latest (and starting a bit before that), and that she was still alive shortly after 9:00pm.

Bottom line is that the variable here should be meal start/finish time, not whether the autopsy results were reported correctly.

Using 8:20pm as the time for beginning her meal, your research indicates that it is very unlikely that 100% of her meal would have remained in her stomach as late as 9:30pm.

I suspect that is the explanation. She didn't really eat anything at the time her friends did. Maybe picked at her food a bit, but didn't actually eat.

If she began eating at 8 it would not be far-fetched to say that she must have been murdered by 9:45. The outlier times for T(lag) with a very small and easy to digest meal is 200 minutes according to one study and 120 minutes with another.

Bottom line is that there is not prcise enough information nor is digestion a precise enough indicator to place TOD within a 1/2 hour period in this case.

Obviously I agree that the meal start time is unknown in general and more so as far as Meredith. The vagaries of digestion add to the impossibility of such a narrow window.

The ILE made so many errors I find it hard to rule out one in this element. Lalli or someone mishandled one of the alcohol tests or so they say. He didn't weigh the body which apparently is forensics 101. Lalli misstates digestion time and in fact uses the wrong category T(1/2) rather than T(lag). At least my research indicates that 2 hours for GE initiation is too long for low end.

As always I would love to see a group of gastric specialists write an analysis of this case.

 

[Desert Fox]

That would be an exceptional case though. . . .

It is far more likely that you (the prosecutor) don't have better evidence but just don't like the verdict. You then find a new jury that will convict with the same evidence.

As far as resources, the state is almost certain to have the advantage.
Remember reading the West Memphis Three that the defense attorneys spent several million dollars in pro bono labor.

That's not quite what happened in Italy, although the perversity of the ISC does make me wonder. Let's say it's not what's supposed to happen.

I wanted to add that in the Italian system, there are effectively arguments which the defense attorney's cannot make or they will be under potential jail sentence themselves. It creates yet another way the Italian system is unfair.

Now, the one item I will argue is that it still is a case where every court case, the defendant has to shell out money to argue their case if they want a good defense. I suspect that Amanda and Raffaele's defense has cost many millions of dollars.

 

[anglolawyer]

I wanted to add that in the Italian system, there are effectively arguments which the defense attorney's cannot make or they will be under potential jail sentence themselves. It creates yet another way the Italian system is unfair.

Now, the one item I will argue is that it still is a case where every court case, the defendant has to shell out money to argue their case if they want a good defense. I suspect that Amanda and Raffaele's defense has cost many millions of dollars.

I agree that the lack of privilege for statements made in court is a big problem in Italy. It might actually be a necessity in a society infested with the mafia but it means the cops can get away with corruption. quis custodiet ipsos custodes

 

[Bill Williams]

As Mark Twain once said - happy to give a clear answer: I don't know. The treaty does not require Italy to show cause beyond delivering a certificate of conviction. Whether constitootional rights override that seems to depend which decade (or circuit) we're in. I don't think the Italian system per se will be the focus but maybe the ISC's perversion of it will. That's what I hope. I have no clue whether that's how it will work out. Oops, I already said that.

All of this is very different from, "The US and Italy have a treaty, therefore there will be an extradition."

 

[Bruce Fischer]

I don't think Dan is motivated by wanting to help Guede in any way but his usual sure-footedness has deserted him here methinks.

I think at one point we was attempting to make a good point about Guede being dangerous when he gets out and I agree with that, but he really needs to rethink that theory. I would recommend that Dan O highlight the entire theory with his cursor and hit delete.

 

[anglolawyer]

All of this is very different from, "The US and Italy have a treaty, therefore there will be an extradition."

Which is not my position at all. I am just making the point that DJ is not a label to be stuck willy nilly on every aspect of what we dislike about what's been going on. That's what you seemed to me to be doing.

 

[Desert Fox]

I agree that the lack of privilege for statements made in court is a big problem in Italy. It might actually be a necessity in a society infested with the mafia but it means the cops can get away with corruption. quis custodiet ipsos custodes

Probably every judicial system is broken in some form or another.
I am not truly against the Italian system in principle.
Maybe with some minor modification, it would be a reasonable system.

The thing is that in this case there were multiple horrid corruptions of justice.
My understanding that this has been a problem for Italy in general.
Still, my general concern is this case in particular.

 

[Bill Williams]

Which is not my position at all. I am just making the point that DJ is not a label to be stuck willy nilly on every aspect of what we dislike about what's been going on. That's what you seemed to me to be doing.

If that's what I was doing, then I should recant.

Consider it recanted.

Yet...... the treaty is silent on the matter, as it perhaps should be.

I found the US/Canada treaty, and THAT treaty is NOT silent about the death penalty. It is built in to the treaty, then it is built in, and the US of A can go suck eggs if it doesn't like it.

I used to throw around Latin terms, and got in trouble with Grinder. Fearing Grinder greatly I will make the distinction about something using plain English so that Grinder, humble Seattleite that he is, can understand.

What happens to issues not specifically covered in a treaty?

1) Unless specifically covered then they do not apply: (Meaning that unless Canada specifically wrote that clause about capital punishment in, then Canada would be bound to extradite to death penalty States), or

2) Those issues not specifically covered are open season to be argued during the process.​

My suspicion is that it is #2, acc. to some understanding in International Law. Even if not written into the treaty, Canada would tell the USA to go suck eggs on that issue.

And for full disclosure's sake, I don't know the Latin terms for that. I'm sure there are some, but I am sure as hell not going to do a google search just to piss off Grinder.

My point is this: if DJ does apply, it will be applied acc. to USA standards, not Italian standards, even though it is Italy making the request. That is, unless someone can cite the treaty where an American's Constitutional protections while in the USA being judged by a US judge should be overridden.

 

[Kaosium]

Which has nothing to do with Introna.

It does, but nevermind it's not relevant.

Not correct. Or at least not complete.

we prepared the pizza, we have eaten, then
We looked at the pictures of Halloween to your computer and then
We started to watch the movie but we were talking,
R.G. 08/08-2/13/2009 c/KNOX AMANDA MARIE + 1
13
so every now and then stopped the film then we
share; then, in mid-films, we have prepared a
apple crumble, which is a kind of Apple Pie, then
After we ate the apple crumble with ice cream, then
We did chat and then to the nine,
have gone because it was supposed to be just a meeting place for the
the afternoon.​

From this account the time of the movie doesn't mean much because they talked and stopped it and it seems they didn't finish it. I'm looking for more of the girls' accounts.

It doesn't say they didn't finish the movie, there's no reason to think they didn't, though I allow they probably skipped the credits as most people do.

They stopped for the crumble and a few times to talk.

I allowed for the stoppage of the movie. Of what relevance is this nitpicking here?

If you believe they finished the movie it would seem since they didn't just watch it but rather talked a bunch and looked at picture dinner probably started earlier.

Yes, the dinner was probably before 7:00, that's what I was trying to show the movie and their account suggested.

The issue isn't whether she should have started earlier than nine. The issue is whether something is wrong with the "facts". Did Meredith start eating when the pizza came out or did she wait. I can't find where they even asked. Did Lalli do a good job?

I assume this isn't the Royal 'We:'

"we prepared the pizza, we have eaten, then
We looked at the pictures of Halloween to your computer and then
We started to watch the movie"

If a healthy person hasn't started GE for 2.5 hours or 3 hours what percentage of them don't start GE for another 30 minutes or 45 minutes?

Well, we know they all do soon enough. This would be what we're arguing, and I'm saying the fact so few make it to three or more hours is a huge indication that last half hour weeds them out, which is something that is also suggested by the curve and the fact we know it must hit zero soon enough. This was the point I was trying to make with the actuarial tables analogy, making it to ninety is a lot different than making it to 110. That last twenty years weeds almost all of them out. This is a curve that has to hit zero, not one that can extend forever without doing so.


One indication might be to look at the comparable tests and see of those who made it to 150 minutes how many made it to 200.

Every study I have been directed to or have found has GE starting within the first hour for the vast majority. The one study with eggs and toast said that if more than 90% of the meal was still in the stomach after 1 hour that indicated a health problem or at least was abnormally slow. If the subject had more than 60% after 2 hours or 30% after 3 hours, they gave the same diagnosis.

Was that the test with egg whites, no milk, margarine instead of butter on the toast and nothing about it being fried? They bake the food for some of these tests and since everything else you describe indicates they want it to go through the subject like grease through a goose, I rather imagine that's the case with this one.

So if Lalli did a correct job on the duodenum Meredith would have retained all of a meal from at least 2.5 hours at a point that less than 50% should be there in a healthy person. The test meal would most likely digest faster but still.

I would think that the discrepancies between the T (lag) numbers for those test meals used as indicators for GI diseases and the more normal meals would suggest that the type of food makes a massive difference, which would figure when you think of what the process is: turning perfectly good food into icky mush so it can go through the intestine and be processed. Fibrous foods, starch, dairy whether there is alcohol present and other factors significantly increase that time according to those papers.

Now let's say that the meal was at 6:30, Meredith ate at that time, she arrived home at 9 and no food had made it to the duodenum and that she was not suffering from any long term or short term malady what percentage chance would there be that she could live until 9:45? Is there any actual data for that beyond bell curve assumptions? Remember this is only for people that didn't start until after the 2.5 or 3 hours.

One indication might be to look at the comparable tests and see of those who made it to 150 minutes how many made it to 200.

One of the studies seemed to indicate that once it gets to 3 hours, 4 hours wouldn't be as unusual as one would guess from the normal bell curve.

Yes, that's what I meant by the skew and it not being as dramatic, but you know the final answer has to be zero.

But I'm sure by now all this has be made clear to the defense and they will feature this argument as the main proof to the ISC that Nencini is whack.

I imagine it will be part of the appeal, just like the last one, however appealing a 10:00 ToD on this basis will be more difficult than a 11:45 ToD like last time.

The will have a lot of issues to appeal though, most not so complicated.

I would love to see a GE expert or more publish an analysis on this issue.

So would I!

As I've said for quite some time, I have no doubt that she was murdered before 9:55. It truly is a shame that Raf wasn't emailing at 10 or have some ISP connections that could be verified.

That there's data missing from the computer is not Raffaele's fault, it's that of those whom wiped the last access data from the other programs he was using that night late on the sixth after they collected his computer (along with the knife and comic book etc) when he was in prison. I suspect that might have been inadvertent, by Raffaele's own account of his travails the night of the 5th he told them to check his computer for what he was doing, and somebody obviously did--perhaps to see if he had those programs installed. Therefore the last access data was changed to late on the sixth when the computer was in police hands and Raffaele was in solitary.

 

[Kaosium]

Just saw your link to Chris' site and discussion of digestion.

A 2003 study by Chen et al. (J. Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 18, 41-46) determined a value of t(lag), namely 81.9 ± 17.4 minutes, with a range of 37.1 to 117.8 minutes. The authors described the test meal: “The egg [one yolk and two whites] was ingested with two slices of white bread coated with 7 g of margarine and 8 g of grape jelly, followed by 150mL water.” A paper on gastric emptying times (Hellmig et al., "Gastric emptying time of fluids and solids in healthy subjects determined by 13C breath tests: influence of age, sex and body mass index" Volume 21, Issue 12, pages 1832–1838, Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, December 2006), was published in the Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, which is peer-reviewed. Other articles cited this paper at least 25 times. These workers described their test meal: “After addition of 50 mL of low-fat milk, the egg was scrambled and fried in a pan. The solid test meal was completed by a piece of brown bread (50 g) and butter (20 g).” They showed that t(lag) for a solid meal did not follow a normal distribution. The median time was 82 minutes, with the 25% percentile at 66 min. and the 75% percentile at 102 min. Out of 82 subjects (Figure 1D), the longest value was 200 minutes, and the next longest was 170 minutes (each value corresponded to a single individual)​

.

Your outlier number of 200 minutes isn't for a normal meal of 500 ml or cc whichever is correct, it is for a much smaller and easier to digest meal than the one Meredith ate.

The size of the meal is only a minor factor in when it begins to digest (this matters more for the half-time, T1/2, of course). It's the substances that are tougher to break down or which inhibit that process (alcohol, dairy) which really matter according to what those studies say and what their results should be screaming loud and clear! Stop looking at studies designed to be easy to digest, or just conclude that they just say more clearly that Meredith couldn't have been alive at 9:30 PM and go after the English girls!

Taking the 6:30 meal start time best guess then add 3 hours and 20 minutes we get 9:50. I think it is pretty clear that a pizza meal that Meredith ate would be a slower to digest meal than the test one.

What leads you to that conclusion?

Add in the hangover and/or alcohol still in her system I don't see this proving beyond a reasonable doubt that kids' couldn't have been there at TOD.

Before the proving innocence rant comes in, yes an alibi has to be proven for the defendant to use it as a complete defense.

I thought the 200 minutes was supposed to be for a normal meal not a tiny test meal. I acknowledged that the studies I used with short T(lag) times were based on small meals.

What caused you to think the size of the meal was a major factor in when it begins to digest? Look at that test meal in the Hellmig study: fried food, dairy, more fibrous bread...why kinda like a pizza!

The Chen study seems to say that the outlier is 117 minutes if I read correctly.

There are no outliers in that study. It's a normal distribution (unskewed bell curve) with all values falling within two standard deviations of the mean. That's what this means:

81.9 ± 17.4 minutes, with a range of 37.1 to 117.8

 

[Mary_H]

That's the whole point of the scenario I presented. He didn't undress her, the clothes just came off as he was trying to move her. You are trying to ascribe normal behaviors to Guede when his actions are so far outside norm we don't have a measure for them. Why would anybody undress a girl the was dying after they slit her throat?

Dan, I think you are contradicting yourself here. You are saying on the one hand that we can't ascribe normal behaviors to Rudy, and then you use a standard of normalcy to predict whether he would undress Meredith. If his actions are so outside the norm, then there is no reason to assume he would not undress a dying girl.

I'm simply trying to account for the fact that the underpants were rolled which indicates they were pulled down when the pants were pulled off. If he were trying to undress her the tshirts would not have gotten rolled up. And if he had removed the jacked and then rolled up the tshirts he would not have them reverted to brute strength to remove the bra but rather unclipped it and taken it off intact. All of resulting evidence is accounted for by the simple motions of a zombie trying to move her body. It may not be probable for the underpants to come all the way off in that scenario. I would expect them to end up on her left leg after the third lift that tore off the bra. Perhaps at that point it simply looked out of place and rather than try to put them back on the zombie Guede pulled them the rest of the way off.

The resulting evidence may be accounted for by calling it the simple motions of a zombie, but other than Rudy's reported previous fugue states, you have no evidence that he was moving like a zombie. The chaotic nature of the evidence suggests it is more likely he was moving like the Incredible Hulk.

Do you have a visualization problem? Try visualizing this scenario: 1) Meredith Kercher's mostly lifeless body 2) Lying with a pillow under her pelvis 3) Semen deposited on the pillow between her legs 4) And a foot steping in that fresh semen deposit and transferring it to the centr of the pillow. Were you able to visualize all of that or is your visualization stack limited and you dropped number 1 before getting to number 4? I covered this in the earlier post. If Rudy deposited semen on that pillow it was done before Meredith was placed there. That almost necessitates that it happened before Meredith came home unless you accept Rudy's claim that he had a date and they were just fooling around.

Why couldn't Rudy have deposited the semen in the midst of dragging Meredith around? He may have intended to try to rape her but ejaculated too soon. Maybe he was holding her as he ejaculated and then laid her down in it and sexually assaulted her.

Are you saying that sexual assault of a dying incapacitated girl seems logical? The whole of the evidence of sexual assault is that Meredith was naked and Rudy's DNA was found inside her. Any attempted sexual assault puts Rudy very close to this spurting neck wound and Meredith coughing out blood. Rudy would have blood spray all over his upper body. I just don't see that hapening in any reality. The most I can see is digital penetration and I don't see any rational for that so I posit the accident.

Again, you are using a double standard for Rudy's behaviors. Either he was rational or he was irrational, and an irrational person is capable of anything.

 

[Desert Fox]

Again, you are using a double standard for Rudy's behaviors. Either he was rational or he was irrational, and an irrational person is capable of anything.

I would argued that people even when they are operating irrationally have a certain set of rules they follow. While I am not sure Dan is right on the specifics, I think you are going a bit far here.

 

[Kaosium]

If there is something wrong with the facts, and I think there is a good chance there is based on the research posted here on T(lag)

The only thing wrong with the research posted is comparing the ones with easily digested substances with the ones most people eat. No one is arguing this outside Grinder, the bunnies even gave up on this one long ago, the prosecution never dared. It's like comparing the time it starts digesting a marshmallow and a marble, exaggerating for effect of course. Throw out all the ones used to attempt to detect GI maladies, (~30 min T-Lag medians) they want it to go down easy, it makes it easier on everyone doing those tests. The ones with more fibrous foods, sugar, dairy, starch, alcohol etc are the ones normal people eat and comparable to what Meredith ate that night, the ones with liquids and only egg whites with white bread toast and margarine will only lead you to the wrong conclusion (there must be something wrong with the data).


Here's something from the appeal document (to the Massei verdict so circa 2010) regarding the actual hard data on the autopsy:

The court also concluded incorrectly that there was a failure to allow ligation of the duodenum, that there was slippage after traveling 5 meters in the small intestine so the court found it unreliable that Dr. Lalli found the duodenum empty. However, the court watched the actual autopsy on November 11, 2009, by Dr. Lalli who did correctly close the duodenum to prevent any slippage from the stomach down. The court talks about her eating food and drinking back at the cottage in one section but later says she had no alcohol. The prosecution assumes a mushroom was eaten after she returned home. Based upon experts and medico-legal criterion, Meredith died at 2-3 or 3-4 hours after her last meal which was completed around 6:30pm to 7:00pm. This places the death using 3 hours at 9:30pm to 10:00pm. The only food found in her stomach was consistent with what her friends indicated she ate for dinner that night. The food had not emptied into the duodenum and failed to initiate gastric emptying, which was properly closed by ligation as seen on the video footage. An item of food found in the 3rd distal esophagus was kept in a container but never tested to determine what is was, which likely was an apple from the apple pie desert she ate after dinner and not a mushroom from her home. The defense requests that this sample be tested to confirm what it is. If the sample is apple as the defense believes, the time of death would be closer to the range that the defense suggests, 9:30pm to 10:00pm.

The time of death is extremely important. The court goes to great lengths to push the time of death to a later time. In order for the court to come to this conclusion, it must ignore expert testimony and video regarding the autopsy. The court also must ignore the testimony regarding the stalled vehicle in front of the cottage. The defense argues, based on the evidence, the murder occurred between 9:30 and 10:00pm. This is supported by the evidence provided during the autopsy and is also supported by the witness testimony dealing with the stalled vehicle. The court chooses to ignore all of this evidence. Why? Raffaele’s computer activity would make it completely impossible for him to be involved in this crime if the murder occurred at 9:30 to 10:00pm. Raffaele was active on his computer in his apartment at 9:10pm as noted by the court. The defense also argues that Raffaele was active on his computer at 9:26pm. The court’s suggested time of death is also in conflict with the phone activity on Meredith’s phones.

Yes, there they allow a ToD of up to 10:00 based upon the meal being completed by 6:30 to 7:00. It's when the meal was started that actually starts the clock and there's no evidence given by anyone that the meal started sooner than 6:30. They're also arguing against a 11:45 ToD and expect the court to come up with a scenario more reasonable than Raffaele and Amanda starting Naruto, running out the door and murdering within moments of the arrival. You'll see they still contend it's an alibi as they know the court has to account for the fiction they met up with Rudy, let him in and they have to allow time for it to develop and Rudy to have his juice and take the dump.

 

[Mary_H]

I would argued that people even when they are operating irrationally have a certain set of rules they follow. While I am not sure Dan is right on the specifics, I think you are going a bit far here.

The previous scenarios that have been suggested, including sexual assault, are well within the limits, or rules, of human behavior. The fact is, Rudy cut Meredith's throat and then did not immediately leave the room; he hung around and did other things. Dan wants to say that Rudy attacked and stabbed without a component of sexual arousal, but the evidence suggests otherwise.

 

[platonov]

What are you suggesting !

Raffaele and Amanda were found guilty in their 1st level trial and lost the Florence appeal; in the context of the Italian justice system they are innocent until the Italian Supreme Court rule in the 3rd trial.

Just throwing this out there; I wonder whether either defence teams have considered hiring Hellmann as a consultant.

RS's defence team perhaps.
But what can he do for them now ?

Would his rate be higher or lower one wonders ?

ps
Actually what happened the appeal judge who gave a post trial interview ?
Has he been fired yet & a mistrial declared ?

 

[anglolawyer]

If that's what I was doing, then I should recant.

Consider it recanted.

Yet...... the treaty is silent on the matter, as it perhaps should be.

I found the US/Canada treaty, and THAT treaty is NOT silent about the death penalty. It is built in to the treaty, then it is built in, and the US of A can go suck eggs if it doesn't like it.

I used to throw around Latin terms, and got in trouble with Grinder. Fearing Grinder greatly I will make the distinction about something using plain English so that Grinder, humble Seattleite that he is, can understand.

What happens to issues not specifically covered in a treaty?

1) Unless specifically covered then they do not apply: (Meaning that unless Canada specifically wrote that clause about capital punishment in, then Canada would be bound to extradite to death penalty States), or

2) Those issues not specifically covered are open season to be argued during the process.​

My suspicion is that it is #2, acc. to some understanding in International Law. Even if not written into the treaty, Canada would tell the USA to go suck eggs on that issue.

And for full disclosure's sake, I don't know the Latin terms for that. I'm sure there are some, but I am sure as hell not going to do a google search just to piss off Grinder.

My point is this: if DJ does apply, it will be applied acc. to USA standards, not Italian standards, even though it is Italy making the request. That is, unless someone can cite the treaty where an American's Constitutional protections while in the USA being judged by a US judge should be overridden.

If memory serves, Diocletus has been explaining that there are two lines of competing judicial authority. The first says: comity of nations, nations must be free to enter into treaties and it's not for the courts to subvert the activity of the executive. So, if the treaty says Italy only has to file the certificate of conviction to extradite then that's all there is to it. The second is: the executive cannot deprive a US citizen of his constitutional rights by treaty with a foreign power so if there are grounds for believing Amanda's basic rights (due process, DJ etc) then the treaty must take a back seat.

Ultimately, there is no resolving these two principles. Which one is uppermost will depend on all sorts of things and those things will vary over time. IOW anybody who proclaims that the outcome of extradition proceedings will be X or Y should be viewed with caution. It's not possible to know the outcome.

 

[Mary_H]

ps
Actually what happened the appeal judge who gave a post trial interview ?
Has he been fired yet & a mistrial declared ?

Unlike Luca Lalli, he was given a pass.

 

[LondonJohn]

The only thing wrong with the research posted is comparing the ones with easily digested substances with the ones most people eat. No one is arguing this outside Grinder, the bunnies even gave up on this one long ago, the prosecution never dared. It's like comparing the time it starts digesting a marshmallow and a marble, exaggerating for effect of course. Throw out all the ones used to attempt to detect GI maladies, (~30 min T-Lag medians) they want it to go down easy, it makes it easier on everyone doing those tests. The ones with more fibrous foods, sugar, dairy, starch, alcohol etc are the ones normal people eat and comparable to what Meredith ate that night, the ones with liquids and only egg whites with white bread toast and margarine will only lead you to the wrong conclusion (there must be something wrong with the data).


Here's something from the appeal document (to the Massei verdict so circa 2010) regarding the actual hard data on the autopsy:



Yes, there they allow a ToD of up to 10:00 based upon the meal being completed by 6:30 to 7:00. It's when the meal was started that actually starts the clock and there's no evidence given by anyone that the meal started sooner than 6:30. They're also arguing against a 11:45 ToD and expect the court to come up with a scenario more reasonable than Raffaele and Amanda starting Naruto, running out the door and murdering within moments of the arrival. You'll see they still contend it's an alibi as they know the court has to account for the fiction they met up with Rudy, let him in and they have to allow time for it to develop and Rudy to have his juice and take the dump.

Well....... you go away for a bit and you come back to find the "stomach/duodenum contents vs ToD" debate rearing its (not so) ugly head again!

And skimming through the last few pages, I subscribe almost entirely to your opinion on this issue. There's sufficient experimental data - when properly interpreted and placed in the correct context - to indicate convincingly that Meredith Kercher a) very probably died between 9pm and 9.30pm, b) almost certainly died between 9pm and 10pm, and c) without a shadow of a doubt did not die later than 10.30pm.

There is absolutely no question whatsoever that the Massei (and Mignini) ToD of 11.30+ is impossible. And it's hugely clear (from my perspective) that the defence teams dropped the ball significantly on this issue. Had they - in the Massei trial - got a competent and authoritative forensic pathologist and/or gastroenterologist to explain this issue properly, there never would have been any wiggle room for Mignini or Massei to go for an 11.30+ ToD. This in turn would have forced them to consider a pre-10.15 ToD (on account of the presence of the broken down car). And in turn that would have forced them to reconcile all the other evidence (or "evidence") with a pre-10.15 ToD.

I realise that the Nencini court re-convicted on a much earlier ToD (which in itself raises fundamental issues to me of how much appeal courts should be able/allowed to alter the inferred facts). But I think the main damage was done in the Massei court. It's also fair to say that the stomach/duodenum contents cannot - even in our special case - categorically rule in or out ToDs in the way that other physical/witness evidence might do. But it can provide compelling and important evidence - particularly in these specific and unusual circumstances - that the murder very likely (90%+) took place between 9.00pm and 9.30pm, almost certainly (99%+) took place between 9.00pm and 10.00pm, and definitely (100%) did not take place any later than 10.30pm.

 

[LondonJohn]

Unlike Luca Lalli, he was given a pass.

You are aware (I hope) that platonov knew the answer to this question before he wrote the question..............


(And FWIW, Nencini still faces significant disciplinary action related to his press activities and statements following the verdict).

 

[platonov]

You just cant trust CT's anymore

Unlike Luca Lalli, he was given a pass.

Really ... that is a surprise !

Does this mean that the predictions from the same quarters about the the ECHR ruling [ the dissolution of the Italian republic and Amanda being crowned Queen ] may also be off ??