Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[anglolawyer]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

 

[Desert Fox]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

There are a fair number of cases where this seems to actually be the case.

 

[Bill Williams]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

"If an investigation is carried out accurately, you shouldn't fear the analysis of other professionals."

http://womanonawire.blogspot.ca/2011/09/unarresting-arrested-famed-fbi-profiler.html?spref=fb&m=1

 

[Grinder]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

Yes and IIRC Hellmann had a crazy idea of Rudi losing his shoe while doing the murder.

Part of the problem is that they aren't allowed just to say guilty or innocent they have to write up that damn report.

Btw, if Nencini doesn't finish the motivations report what happens? Is the case just in limbo?

 

[Bill Williams]

Yes and IIRC Hellmann had a crazy idea of Rudi losing his shoe while doing the murder.

Part of the problem is that they aren't allowed just to say guilty or innocent they have to write up that damn report.

Btw, if Nencini doesn't finish the motivations report what happens? Is the case just in limbo?

It's perhaps why they have the second professional judge. I'll bet all the money in my pocket a motivations report gets written.

 

[Grinder]

It's perhaps why they have the second professional judge. I'll bet all the money in my pocket a motivations report gets written.

Does that mean you think it will be written or not?

Yes, I too would bet big that they will write one but what if they don't, what happens? They can't finish the case.

 

[Samson]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

Time, endless unpaid time allows a forum like this to reconstruct the actual crime accurately. Injustices, particularly where the proof is absolute will not in future survive this process. This injustice won't survive I am certain.
We watched The Shawshank Redemption last night, I hope some people in this case from the other side watch it too, before continuing to obstruct justice.

,

 

[acbytesla]

Time, endless unpaid time allows a forum like this to reconstruct the actual crime accurately. Injustices, particularly where the proof is absolute will not in future survive this process. This injustice won't survive I am certain.
We watched The Shawshank Redemption last night, I hope some people in this case from the other side watch it too, before continuing to obstruct justice.

,

One of my favorite movies. I have it on DVD. You have to believe that it is probably a lot tougher mentally to have to do prison time for something you didn't do. Just harder to accept the reality of the situation.

I like to think that injustices won't survive...but I think that might be wishful thinking. There is no logical reason for this wrongful prosecution and conviction, but the reality is there are hundreds even thousands of people in prison just in the US wrongfully. God only knows how many innocent people we have executed, but I'm sure it is more than a few.

Logic tells me you are right Samson, but logic told me that this farce should have been over years ago. My fingers are crossed for both Amanda and Raffaele.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Does anybody else here think it remarkable that we here sometimes understand things better than the professionals involved in the case? I was re-reading Hellman on the bathmat print and even he thought somebody planted a bare foot in blood in the bedroom then traipsed it into the bathroom. It's this sort of thing that keeps me interested.

One part of it, I think, is just that the total number of person-hours spent on this case by the JREF forum community over the period of literally years is going to dwarf the time any one judge can spend on it in a few months, especially if they have other cases on their mind.

Another part is that we're fairly aggressively self-correcting here. If I make a factually false statement about the case it's very highly likely another old-timer will jump on it straight away. Hellmann et. al. don't have that team on hand to correct their errors.

A third part is that we're lucky enough to have collected over time some fairly smart cookies, people who strike me as unusually smart and good at critical thinking even by professional and academic standards. Not everyone who takes part falls into that category, obviously, but enough do that even fairly difficult stuff can get pulled apart by people who understand it.

A fourth, which relates to the first, is that at some time or another someone will have taken the time to dissect just about every claim a pro-guilt poster has ever made. So the collective knowledge here about the case has grown close to all-encompassing over time.

 

[Grinder]

Time, endless unpaid time allows a forum like this to reconstruct the actual crime accurately. Injustices, particularly where the proof is absolute will not in future survive this process. This injustice won't survive I am certain.
We watched The Shawshank Redemption last night, I hope some people in this case from the other side watch it too, before continuing to obstruct justice.
,

Paid consultants are renown for doing bad work. Volunteers are much better.

But of course the endless part is the difference.

 

[Samson]

One of my favorite movies. I have it on DVD. You have to believe that it is probably a lot tougher mentally to have to do prison time for something you didn't do. Just harder to accept the reality of the situation.

I like to think that injustices won't survive...but I think that might be wishful thinking. There is no logical reason for this wrongful prosecution and conviction, but the reality is there are hundreds even thousands of people in prison just in the US wrongfully. God only knows how many innocent people we have executed, but I'm sure it is more than a few.
Logic tells me you are right Samson, but logic told me that this farce should have been over years ago. My fingers are crossed for both Amanda and Raffaele.

Acbytesla, I thought I remembered you praising the movie.
We have one hundredth the population of the USA, but currently a handful of hotly disputed murder convictions, two of which are currently being retried. Several hundred in the USA would be equivalent.
However there is a very big difference here. There is a killer in jail for the crime, and proof in my opinion beyond any doubt of the others' non-involvement. In fact my bet is the bra clasp, which is all they have, is planted evidence because of the timing of the discovery, the fact RS wasn't there at the time of the strip down, and there is precedent for evidence planting. For example the exact occurrence happened here with a cartridge case with Arthur Allan Thomas. The police believe they have a perp, and justice can be served by manufacturing evidence as a means to an end.
I am actually a little surprised Amanda seems to be fighting alone. There are many influential people who could satisfy themselves of innocence and make a huge noise, be listened to, and start getting the facts widely disseminated.
The facts are uniquely easy in this case.

 

[Planigale]

One part of it, I think, is just that the total number of person-hours spent on this case by the JREF forum community over the period of literally years is going to dwarf the time any one judge can spend on it in a few months, especially if they have other cases on their mind.

Another part is that we're fairly aggressively self-correcting here. If I make a factually false statement about the case it's very highly likely another old-timer will jump on it straight away. Hellmann et. al. don't have that team on hand to correct their errors.

A third part is that we're lucky enough to have collected over time some fairly smart cookies, people who strike me as unusually smart and good at critical thinking even by professional and academic standards. Not everyone who takes part falls into that category, obviously, but enough do that even fairly difficult stuff can get pulled apart by people who understand it.

A fourth, which relates to the first, is that at some time or another someone will have taken the time to dissect just about every claim a pro-guilt poster has ever made. So the collective knowledge here about the case has grown close to all-encompassing over time.

One reason I prefer this forum is that it is not committed to a view of innocence and guilt, but to an analysis of the evidence, as said accuracy is primary here not stating factoids to support a view. Also of course our mods are entirely independent of the discussion, so there is no banning people for disagreeing with the prevailing view (unlike in particular the pro-guilt sites).

I think this forum is worth keeping as the most independent and most factual, what is needed is more people coming here to discover the facts rather than to those sites which are in the most literal sense prejudice.

I regret I cannot put in the effort many others do. But I do applaud those who have worked long and hard to refine the facts.

 

[acbytesla]

Acbytesla, I thought I remembered you praising the movie.
We have one hundredth the population of the USA, but currently a handful of hotly disputed murder convictions, two of which are currently being retried. Several hundred in the USA would be equivalent.
However there is a very big difference here. There is a killer in jail for the crime, and proof in my opinion beyond any doubt of the others' non-involvement. In fact my bet is the bra clasp, which is all they have, is planted evidence because of the timing of the discovery, the fact RS wasn't there at the time of the strip down, and there is precedent for evidence planting. For example the exact occurrence happened here with a cartridge case with Arthur Allan Thomas. The police believe they have a perp, and justice can be served by manufacturing evidence as a means to an end.
I am actually a little surprised Amanda seems to be fighting alone. There are many influential people who could satisfy themselves of innocence and make a huge noise, be listened to, and start getting the facts widely disseminated.
The facts are uniquely easy in this case.

Well, I'm not sure where you are from Samson. Overall, I think justice is usually done. But the reality is there is a lot of pressure on cops to get the bad guy and frequently, once they have it in their minds that a particular suspect did it, they are doing what they think is right and that is getting the criminal off the street. They lose track of the idea that they might be wrong and they focus too much on getting the bad guy instead of doing it right.

 

[Kaosium]

Kaosium - are you seriously saying that Introna was being schooled by the provincial coroner on T(lag) time?

Err...it was probably the other way around, being as Lalli changed his numbers. Something caused him to do that, it may well have been Dr. Introna asked him to take a closer look at the longer estimate.

What possible difference does Lalli saying that the length of digestion time is 2-3 or 3-4 hours make to the head of the department of forensic medicine at Bari University in his analysis.

They're the prosecution's numbers and without doubt they're going to be in the Motivations Report and the defense cannot ignore them. Incidentally, that was originally a bell curve, as are most of the studies regarding T-lag you find, that may be simply because those studies throw outliers out, not an uncommon practice in many fields. However I've also been talking about it being skewed to the right as that's what the curve actually looks like when you look at the studies most applicable to the circumstances in this case. So the original argument back in 2009 (2010 for JREF) was based on a bell curve both in court and here, now we're talking about one skewed to the right as that's more accurate, but not in the favor of an earlier ToD, just more accurate. I've tried to note which one I'm talking about when I switch gears so as not to confuse. The unskewed bell curve one is simpler and easier to explain and corresponds with what a lot of the studies say, the skewed one is more accurate though.

Introna's self described expertise: Professor of legal medicine at the University of Bari, the Director of the school of specialization in Federated University of Bari and Foggia University, obviously I'm a specialist in forensic medicine. Are the only specialist in Italy specializing in forensic pathology in America ready for operation in America as coroner.

I must say that it seems some Italian thinking has rubbed of when we get a meal of 500 cc is compatible with a girl the size of Meredith and therefore probable

I ask one more time for a link to a study or any reasonably reliable site that gives a maximum time for gastric emptying to begin.

You're in the advanced placement class now, Grinder! It was discovered some seven threads and four years ago or so that this wasn't an issue for simple links. What is relevant to this conversation are studies like the one you've posted the abstract of at least once and I've been referring to from the start.

We know that he weigh Meredith and all here acknowledge that was a fundamental mistake. Is it possible he made other mistakes? Chris doesn't believe his work on the BAC. Would Introna have a reason to challenge the duodenum findings of his? Given that the earlier TOD helped his client I would say no.

Unless you're talking about the early bad sample with the wildly high number that Lalli dismissed himself, I think the disagreement is with what that lower number means, not that it wasn't accurate. I can almost understand what Chris Halkides is talking about regarding this issue and do know enough to respect a biochemists opinion on it if he says some neat little chart on the internet isn't telling the whole story and it's actually a lot more complicated than that.


Measuring stuff (500 cc in stomach) and noting the absence of things (nothing in the duodenum) is pretty routine stuff. I'm pretty sure he can brush his teeth and tie his shoes too.

As for the alibi, of course that is one element in a trial where the defendant must prove it. Having one person interacting with a computer and saying they were with another certainly isn't proof beyond a reasonable doubt. And yes alibis need to be solid.

They're both on trial and say they were together. If in fact only one was there they sure as hell wouldn't have ever wondered if the other might have snuck out (as they did in their diaries) they'd know the other one left and that they couldn't possibly have known whether the other was involved or not. That would mean both were willing to have their lives destroyed for someone they'd only met a week before and that's silly. At any rate they're both on trial.

Is there more on the Naruto from back in 2008. That would be absolutely convincing with the computer forensic work done on Raf's computer.

What more do you need?

 

[Kaosium]

If Meredith wasn't ill or affected by something it would seem the emptying should have started far earlier than even 2.5 hours.

Indeed, the fact she didn't is why this is relevant. The nature of the material and the fact she had alcohol in her system would contribute to her being well above the norm. It's best to use studies replicating those conditions for the most accurate information

Now this may be the most interesting because it indicates to me that the gastric emptying may flatten out at the end.

That's what I mean when I say 'skewed to the right' or note that it won't be as dramatic as the bell curve numbers. However it cannot actually flatten out (completely) because it must hit zero pretty soon....or you die! In part that's why I thought the actuarial tables the best comparison, that one too must hit zero because everybody dies (a lot quicker if you stop digesting food)!

Some patients with delayed emptying at 2 hours normalize their emptying at the 4 hour
time point and some individuals with normal emptying at 2 hours have delayed emptying at 4
hours (42Guo 2001, 43Zeissman). The clinical importance of delayed emptying at only certain
time points is unknown. There needs to be better understanding of the use of multiple time
points in combination (e.g., 2 and 4 hours). Data from Guo et al. suggest that the 3 hour time
period might be as sensitive as a four hour study in detecting delayed gastric emptying (42Guo et
al 1991). Although the original report for the Tougas et al data had no 3 hour measurement
point, more recent studies suggest the upper limit of normal is 28% gastric retention at 3 hoursafter meal ingestion (50Lin 2006). A recent study using the Tougas meal have shown that the 3
hour time point is nearly comparable to the 4 hour value in detecting patients with delayed
gastric emptying (50Lin 2006).

The upper limit of 28% after 3 hours certainly makes it hard to believe that she ate at 6 or even 6:30 and still had a completely full stomach.

Or it makes it that more likely she ate at about 6:30 and her digestion stopped very soon after she went inside, right about 9:00 PM. As it notes some of the ones with delayed digestion the first two hours will normalize by four hours, and she quite probably never got to three hours....

As for diseases, Lalli looked for and didn't find any but more to the point had she diabetes, Crohn's disease or some GI malady that would have been in her medical records and easy to prove in court and put an end to this.

 

[Desert Fox]

A fair amount of people have undiagnosed type 2 diabetes although likely less on an issue in the UK with government health care.

 

[Bruce Fischer]

Amazing.... something on that website that I agree with.

TJMK didn't suggest in their write-up that the bathmat can be manipulated because it was not made on a smooth surface. I was stating that I think their write up proves that point.

They feel the bathmat is a conclusive match for Raffaele. That's not surprising of course.

 

[Kaosium]

A fair amount of people have undiagnosed type 2 diabetes although likely less on an issue in the UK with government health care.

She wouldn't have been amongst those most prone to it: older, heavier physically inactive people.

 

[Desert Fox]

She wouldn't have been amongst those most prone to it: older, heavier physically inactive people.

Still happens in a small bu not insignificant percentage non overweight people

 

[RandyN]

Does that mean you think it will be written or not?

Yes, I too would bet big that they will write one but what if they don't, what happens? They can't finish the case.

It took a full year for Micheli to write up his motivation report in Migninis famous Narduci case. More than 1000 pages IIRC....all to conclude that all twenty plus family, lawyers and other defendants were all completely innocent. (Mignini promised to appeal...dont know if he ever did)

Also in the Sara Scazzi case, where they released the killer (the uncle) who confessed and provided details only the killer could ever know but who was released and instead his wife (the aunt) and his daughter (the cousin) were both arrested in a case about as well policed and prosecuted as in the Kerchers case...there has been no motivation report and it is well past the 90 day limit...which must be more a guideline than a limit going by those two cases that I know about. Rose has better details on the Scazi case I think.

This was the kind of information that Frank was great at finding the details on. I sure miss his reports. No one else seems to care or bothers reporting a story of how the motivation reports of some cases just get delayed...for up to a year certainly.

What does that do to the case? Who knows...in Narduci no one was held in jail...while in the Scazi case both women are being held. (BTW the women were found guilty)

It is Italy they can do whatever they want...worst that happens is someone complains to the ECOHR about the less than speedy process and ECOHR fines Italy and adds one more check in that violation column. And not a blessed thing changes. No one seems to get a retrial for a less than speedy trial (oh the irony)...not sure about the "no fair trial" violations.

It is Italy...no one really cares! Not even me.