proudfootz
"When everyone picks up the same method, applies it to the same facts, and gets a different result, we can be certain that the method is invalid and should be abandoned" - Richard Carrier
Carrier said that? Well, he is new to Bayes. As he gets more into that community, it will be pointed out to him that Bayes teaches that the "when" clause is typical of inference on slender evidence. Bayes won't fix that. Robust agreement on thin evidence requires luck or magic, not math.
While I am a frequent critic here of the (alleged) methodological foundation of the historians' consensus on HJ, the criticism acknowledges that those heuristics are admissible (and would be Bayes-admissible, even), but that they implement choices that can be questionned. Even then, the choices may be fine for professional historians ("Better that a thousand phoney people be accepted as real, than that one real person be considered phoney?"), but not necessarily of any interest or usefulness at all to people who just want to assess the prospects for whether a single person existed when and where it is claimed.