Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[RandyN]

One thing is new, the prosecution is not proposing a ToD of 11:45 PM ToD like before, and from what I heard of the Nencini show trial they've even abandoned 10:30 as well.

Just to simplify this, pretend for a moment that there was reliable evidence that the perpetrator to a crime was a male taller than 6'2" tall, perhaps a partial camera shot establishing that the person had to be taller than 6'2" tall, but nothing definite as to how much taller. At that point the fact that only ~4% of the male population is taller than 6'2" cannot make it improbable that this person being that tall is improbable, there's already evidence suggesting that is so, just like there's evidence Meredith went 2.5-3.0 hours without passing anything to her duodenum.

However you can look at data and show that if the perp was taller than 6'2" that it is more likely he was 6'3" than 6'4" and that it's very unlikely he was taller than 7' tall. You're at the far right edge of the curve and the probability is declining downwards with every inch. There's actual data on this we played with in stats class (many years ago!) and it it conforms with that curve, which is why we were utilizing it, just like the curves from the studies on gastric emptying do.

So if only 4% of the population of human males is taller than 6'2" it comes out looking something like this:

6'3" =1.25%
6'4" =1.00%
6'5" =0.75%
6'6" =0.50%
6'7" =0.25%
6'8"+ =0.25%

So what you can do is determine that if you know the perp was taller than 6'2" that there is a 31.25% chance he was 6'3", a 25% chance he was 6'4", an 18.75% probability of being 6'5", 12.5% of being 6'6" and 6.25% that he was 6'7" and the same for all heights over 6'8".

Yes and luckily we have more data to go on than just this digestion data. That data is just one piece of the picture puzzle. Those stats can be added to MK normal phone routines, her usual laundry routine, her bloody outer garments, her routines when preparing for bed or study.

And there are other data we can use to fill in some details if not to paint the complete picture as to what happened and when. RG testified that MK screamed at around 9:20 PM. The blood pooling evidence can help determine where the fatal cut was made and how long, given the volume of blood loss that it was that Miss Kercher likely survived alive although probably not conscious. Miss Kercher was undoubtedly dead by 9:30.

Nothing in all the puzzle pieces indicates any thing other than that conclusion. If you wish to take one piece and try to determine what the complete picture looks like, well I suppose people like to do that but it is no way to solve a crime. And it is certainly not necessary to do that here.

The pieces are available. It would be foolish to not make use of how they fit or do not fit together.

A scream at 9:20? Why? The discovery of RG inside? Or the actual fight? Or both? No matter...death was highly likely within 10 minutes of the fatal wound. The blood pooling evidence proves that. When the volume begins to lower scientific data is available to show what occurs. As it continues to flow from the body ...physically known reactions occur. At some point the heart has nothing to pump. The brain shuts down organs to help keep itself alive but that is hopeless when one is "bled out". 10 minutes tops...dead by 9:30 if we go by RG. But do those facts fit into the puzzle? Yes...yes they do. One of dozens of pieces that go together perfectly and add to one highly likely conclusion. That RG alone killed Miss Kercher. Did RG have a blonde friend helping? Perhaps but there are just those two lost hairs or fibers... and no footprint, fingerprint or any other data...so we cant know for certain...but no other pieces indicate anyone else present except for MK and RG.

This is conclusive except in some bizzaro world. That Italy not only maintains but suspiciously props up the bizarre fact-less case over the evidence and logic and facts is curious to say the least.

 

[RWVBWL]

Yes and luckily we have more data to go on than just this digestion data. That data is just one piece of the picture puzzle. Those stats can be added to MK normal phone routines, her usual laundry routine, her bloody outer garments, her routines when preparing for bed or study.

And there are other data we can use to fill in some details if not to paint the complete picture as to what happened and when. RG testified that MK screamed at around 9:20 PM. The blood pooling evidence can help determine where the fatal cut was made and how long, given the volume of blood loss that it was that Miss Kercher likely survived alive although probably not conscious. Miss Kercher was undoubtedly dead by 9:30.

Nothing in all the puzzle pieces indicates any thing other than that conclusion. If you wish to take one piece and try to determine what the complete picture looks like, well I suppose people like to do that but it is no way to solve a crime. And it is certainly not necessary to do that here.

The pieces are available. It would be foolish to not make use of how they fit or do not fit together.

A scream at 9:20? Why? The discovery of RG inside? Or the actual fight? Or both? No matter...death was highly likely within 10 minutes of the fatal wound. The blood pooling evidence proves that. When the volume begins to lower scientific data is available to show what occurs. As it continues to flow from the body ...physically known reactions occur. At some point the heart has nothing to pump. The brain shuts down organs to help keep itself alive but that is hopeless when one is "bled out". 10 minutes tops...dead by 9:30 if we go by RG. But do those facts fit into the puzzle? Yes...yes they do. One of dozens of pieces that go together perfectly and add to one highly likely conclusion. That RG alone killed Miss Kercher. Did RG have a blonde friend helping? Perhaps but there are just those two lost hairs or fibers... and no footprint, fingerprint or any other data...so we cant know for certain...but no other pieces indicate anyone else present except for MK and RG.

This is conclusive except in some bizzaro world. That Italy not only maintains but suspiciously props up the bizarre fact-less case over the evidence and logic and facts is curious to say the least.

Hi RandyN and everyone else,
So as I was just out shooting photo's of the moon rising here in Los Angeles and jet aircraft flying towards it, my mind once more got to thinkin' about this case we discuss. I dig the campfire discussion comparison, kinda cool...

Anyways, as I wrote earlier today, I'm still bothered by the lack of bloody arms and hands from Meredith, for I do recall reading of this before.

So I dug up my old copy of B. Nadeau's book "Angel Face" and found a little bit more about that upraised arm and hand on pages 48+49:

Meredith's left arm was bent, and her blood smeared hand was still suspended in the air near her face. The tip of her long, thin index finger was soaked in blood as if she had touched her neck. But Meredith's right hand showed not even a drop of blood except from tiny cuts on the palm of her hand - it had not been near her face or neck when she was stabbed, but the detectives determined that she had extended it in self defense. The twin bruises and identical pressure points on the insides of her elbows were consistent with her arms being held back.

"It's blonde" the scientific police officer said as he pulled a long hair from Meredith's blood soaked hand.


From what I gather, the large slash on Meredith's throat is on the left side of her neck, right? I'd think that it'd be easier to use the right hand to reach over cover the wound instead of the left. But the right hand is not bloody. The left hand is, and it has an apparent blonde hair in it's grasp.

If Rudy Guede was the only attacker,
at some point he put the knife down on Meredith's bed, near her purse, leaving a bloody outline of the blade. That would give Meredith a free moment or two before he returned his attention back to her and started to further undress her when committing rape.

So at some point right after that brutal stabbing, Meredith should have had both arms free to reach up towards her neck to staunch the flow of blood and possibly protect it from further damage.

But Meredith's right hand is not bloody.

And that left hand of hers, smeared with blood, has only it's index finger soaked in blood. And that same hand is clutching a hair, now lost...

Do you see why I wonder about this? Shouldn't there be a lot more blood on Meredith's arms and hands if it was only Rudy attacking her?
RW

 

[anglolawyer]

Was this it? "The Amanda Knox Game is a board game based on the true events of November 1, 2007 in Perugia, Italy. Each player takes on the role of an individual present at the crime scene and pursues variable, hidden goals.

Decisions are made in real time. A sand timer is moved along a time track at the bottom of the board advancing fifteen minutes each turn. A die roll moves the player around the four-bedroom ground-floor apartment depicted on the game board.

Players must make choices that may alter or recreate historical events." See also this link.

I have previously speculated on what Amanda did between 12:45 and 5:45 on 6 November 2007, and my best guess is Chutes and Ladders with Donnino, et al.

ETA
I exchanged an email or two with the artist. IIRC only one or at the most two of the game sets were produced.

If only they had taken the timeline out all the guilters woulda bought it

 

[Sonia]

Hi RandyN and everyone else,
So as I was just out shooting photo's of the moon rising here in Los Angeles and jet aircraft flying towards it, my mind once more got to thinkin' about this case we discuss. I dig the campfire discussion comparison, kinda cool...

Anyways, as I wrote earlier today, I'm still bothered by the lack of bloody arms and hands from Meredith, for I do recall reading of this before.

So I dug up my old copy of B. Nadeau's book "Angel Face" and found a little bit more about that upraised arm and hand on pages 48+49:

Meredith's left arm was bent, and her blood smeared hand was still suspended in the air near her face. The tip of her long, thin index finger was soaked in blood as if she had touched her neck. But Meredith's right hand showed not even a drop of blood except from tiny cuts on the palm of her hand - it had not been near her face or neck when she was stabbed, but the detectives determined that she had extended it in self defense. The twin bruises and identical pressure points on the insides of her elbows were consistent with her arms being held back.

"It's blonde" the scientific police officer said as he pulled a long hair from Meredith's blood soaked hand.


From what I gather, the large slash on Meredith's throat is on the left side of her neck, right? I'd think that it'd be easier to use the right hand to reach over cover the wound instead of the left. But the right hand is not bloody. The left hand is, and it has an apparent blonde hair in it's grasp.

If Rudy Guede was the only attacker,
at some point he put the knife down on Meredith's bed, near her purse, leaving a bloody outline of the blade. That would give Meredith a free moment or two before he returned his attention back to her and started to further undress her when committing rape.

So at some point right after that brutal stabbing, Meredith should have had both arms free to reach up towards her neck to staunch the flow of blood and possibly protect it from further damage.

But Meredith's right hand is not bloody.

And that left hand of hers, smeared with blood, has only it's index finger soaked in blood. And that same hand is clutching a hair, now lost...

Do you see why I wonder about this? Shouldn't there be a lot more blood on Meredith's arms and hands if it was only Rudy attacking her?
RW

In Ron Henry's reconstruction of the crime based on the blood evidence in the room, he ventured that she had "attempt[ed] to crawl in a clockwise direction, propped on her right hand while clutching her left hand to her throat. She probably remains fully conscious for only a minute or so."

http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/RonHendry10.html

Hendry's reconstruction of what happened after Rudy overpowered Meredith and stabbed her from behind makes sense to me. With her last bit of strength, she tried to crawl clockwise, away from the wardrobe, and away from Rudy. She would have had to put one or both of her hands on the floor to make this movement. Hendry believes she was too busy trying to get away to put both hands on her throat, and so do I.

 

[MichaelB]

I was reading the fingerprint people which was pretty boring but a couple of things stood out.

http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/2009-04-23_Eng.pdf

the vaseline again...

p222

QUESTION - But the glass of the glass examined in Rome?
ANSWER - Then the glass beaker, was treated inside the apartment and was left there, inside the apartment. Later, in Rome I found two glasses with another report that was filed, a reminder that now .. . I have it somewhere if I remember correctly, here it is. Then I treated and I signed three reports. A report on a glass negative and, virtually, then I made another report, dated this 7/3 / '08, the glass beaker, and another report dated 28/5/2008 in which I was resubmitted to the hairdryer treatment, petroleum jelly, Vaseline container, MP3 player, the foundation, the pencil,

p 222 - The guitars were checked for fingerprints!

QUESTION - The guitars.
ANSWER - The guitar, we have between all objects in the apartment there were all treated.

QUESTION - I understood. She looked at a guitar in Rome in the laboratories?
ANSWER - NO.

And about the gatto. The story changes. Now it cut it's ear on the glass.

p117
ANSWER - Outside on the right elevation, where there is a mouse, here on this square, the elevation of the apartment right below it falls down and there is little clay and gravel, and alongside there are concrete steps .On the stairs there was a small concrete. micro dots of blood which then turned out to be the cat that was cut on the glass.

p130

ANSWER - Exactly.Then we spent the afternoon to highlight all the micro drips with blood and then we came to the conclusion that they were drops of blood of an injured cat who left these footprints.

 

[Grinder]

It's not a specious argument, it's a damned powerful one but difficult for people to understand and relate to other things they would consider certain indications of innocence. For example, if there was evidence a suspect was 150 miles away 1-1.5 hours before a crime occurred, most everyone would consider that pretty much certain evidence that person was innocent. However, put into numbers those wouldn't look much different than the ones we're using as it is possible to drive 100-150 miles an hour without getting caught, just highly unlikely. Even if their car had a max speed of 90 mph it's still possible they could have stolen/borrowed a crotch rocket and made it there.

Once again specious. The fact is that Meredith hadn't begun emptying at 2.5/3 hours. For your analogy there would need to have been a car detected going 145 miles an hour. Why not make it a little more realistic and have them 90 miles away and an hour before the crime.

We know that Meredith is really tall from your other analogy but you didn't like it put in terms of time and probability. I think your error is that you are looking at this as if is an even odds bet. Clearly the further out it or taller the less likely it is but not beyond reasonable doubt.

The age one is worst yet. Strange you found a chart that went to 119 but not 120 considering Sampson's example. Let's use 105 instead and you'll see that 74 are alive and two years later 30% are still alive. The chances of living to 107 is .021% when born but 30% when one is 105. We don't know what the chances are for a person to not start emptying for 3 1/2 hours once they are at 2 1/2 hours. Of course, the odds are small but are they such that they prove that she was dead by 9:20? You think so and perhaps it will the main argument of the defense teams in the next appeal. We'll see.

Yes, you can say that if she had an empty duodenum when autopsied that the odds are very high that she died before 9:30 PM regardless of whether she started the meal at six or six thirty. When the scientist for Raffaele's defense (Dr. Introna if I recall correctly) made his presentation he used 7 PM as the time of the meal and the data is still powerful even with that allowance.

No he used 6:30. So the odds are the same at 2.5 and 3 hours, interesting.



Too bad the phone calls didn't happen at 9:20 instead of just before 10.

 

[Grinder]

Without wishing to sidetrack the digestion discussion, it's interesting how Italian law treats Curatolo if we bring TOD to 9.45 or thereabouts. We have Mach to thank for explaining this. It's not that the two people he saw in the Piazza from 9.28 exactly could not be Raf and Amanda (because they must have been haring through to make their appointment with death) but just that he proves they are lying about being at home. Reality can go hang.

Curatolo is 'extraordinarily accurate' (Galati) and his ID is reliable because he came to court 'not once but twice' and, God only knows how, picked them out (the ISC) but it turns out that he is only extraordinarily accurate about dates rather than times and his ID evidence can be torn from its context solely for the purpose of bringing them outside when they said they were inside. We can do the same for the scream evidence as, indeed, Briars has and Nencini no doubt will.

All the little pieces can be moved around like in the tasteful board game based on the crime. I wonder how sales are going?

Curatolo is perhaps the weirdest of all the evidence. You missed one thing and that is that his testimony is compatible with the kids lying. Mach only needs two more for proof that they lied.

Bingo.

 

[Grinder]

You know Randy...I recall several discussions about these so called blonde hairs...that is what the PGP called them...certainly only to help implicate AK due to her hair color.

But you are exactly correct...if these belonged to Knox or even RS you can bet all the surf boards in the world that these "hairs" would not have become "lost". And strangely these were not the only missing hairs.

This brings me back to the across the board incompetence of the ILE. Why with the pictures of the hairs and the leaked hair stories didn't they just take some hair from the kids' hair brushes or pillows or from them and prove their case?

 

[Grinder]

Yes and luckily we have more data to go on than just this digestion data. That data is just one piece of the picture puzzle. Those stats can be added to MK normal phone routines, her usual laundry routine, her bloody outer garments, her routines when preparing for bed or study.

In general yes. Do we have any information on "usual laundry routine" or the other routines you mention. Certainly someone returning home on a November evening to an unheated (perhaps) house would leave a light outer top on.

By most accounts she was partying the night before and just might still be hungover impacting her routines.

And there are other data we can use to fill in some details if not to paint the complete picture as to what happened and when. RG testified that MK screamed at around 9:20 PM. The blood pooling evidence can help determine where the fatal cut was made and how long, given the volume of blood loss that it was that Miss Kercher likely survived alive although probably not conscious. Miss Kercher was undoubtedly dead by 9:30.

Yes and he also said he had a date with her. By the time he made his 9:20 statement, he had plenty of opportunity to read the coverage and no one had put a time on the scream except vaguely Amanda had. But since he knew she wasn't there, why would he worry about that?

What does everybody think Rudy did from 9:05 until he left the cottage at 10?

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Was it cat's blood or not?

What does everybody think Rudy did from 9:05 until he left the cottage at 10?

I am not yet ready to rule out that he went downstairs.

 

[Desert Fox]

What does everybody think Rudy did from 9:05 until he left the cottage at 10?

There are always going to be mysteries that we just don't have answers to. I would argue that we just will never know.

Even if Ruby came out and said what he was doing, his memories will have changed so he might not even remember it correctly.

 

[anglolawyer]

In general yes. Do we have any information on "usual laundry routine" or the other routines you mention. Certainly someone returning home on a November evening to an unheated (perhaps) house would leave a light outer top on.

By most accounts she was partying the night before and just might still be hungover impacting her routines.



Yes and he also said he had a date with her. By the time he made his 9:20 statement, he had plenty of opportunity to read the coverage and no one had put a time on the scream except vaguely Amanda had. But since he knew she wasn't there, why would he worry about that?

What does everybody think Rudy did from 9:05 until he left the cottage at 10?

Who says he left at 10?

 

[Grinder]

Who says he left at 10?

Good day sir. I thought that the two calls made from Meredith's phone were from the cottage and that the next connection to the phone (10:13?) is the one that used a tower consistent with being away from the cottage.

 

[anglolawyer]

Good day sir. I thought that the two calls made from Meredith's phone were from the cottage and that the next connection to the phone (10:13?) is the one that used a tower consistent with being away from the cottage.

From the cottage itself or fumbling around on the way to Lana's but still in range of whichever cell tower handled the activity?

Good day to you.

 

[Grinder]

From the cottage itself or fumbling around on the way to Lana's but still in range of whichever cell tower handled the activity?

Good day to you.

Perhaps one of the cell experts will give us the skinny on this. It was in my head that the calls were made from the cottage as you remember Massei had Meredith lying on her bed playing with her phone.

 

[anglolawyer]

Perhaps one of the cell experts will give us the skinny on this. It was in my head that the calls were made from the cottage as you remember Massei had Meredith lying on her bed playing with her phone.

I think that might have been a 'possible therefore probable'. Not sure cell phones can be tracked with precision to a precise location but, as you say, we have the experts on tap here so no doubt someone will chime in with the, ah, skinny (or dope?)

 

[Kaosium]

Once again specious. The fact is that Meredith hadn't begun emptying at 2.5/3 hours. For your analogy there would need to have been a car detected going 145 miles an hour. Why not make it a little more realistic and have them 90 miles away and an hour before the crime.

We know that Meredith is really tall from your other analogy but you didn't like it put in terms of time and probability. I think your error is that you are looking at this as if is an even odds bet. Clearly the further out it or taller the less likely it is but not beyond reasonable doubt.

What sort of percentage are you looking for regarding reasonable doubt? If there was a 50% Meredith was dead by 9:30 would that be enough? 75%? 90%? 95%? 99%?

The age one is worst yet.

It's the best one, kudos to Sampson. The fact you think the opposite means we're not communicating very well.

Strange you found a chart that went to 119 but not 120 considering Sampson's example.

Not 'strange,' simply the first one that came up and I saw it was from the SSA, I don't understand what relevance 119 vs. 120 would have.

Let's use 105 instead and you'll see that 74 are alive and two years later 30% are still alive. The chances of living to 107 is .021% when born but 30% when one is 105. We don't know what the chances are for a person to not start emptying for 3 1/2 hours once they are at 2 1/2 hours. Of course, the odds are small but are they such that they prove that she was dead by 9:20? You think so and perhaps it will the main argument of the defense teams in the next appeal. We'll see.

You're using two year windows to account for the difference of a half hour in an for an event that can only vary by 2.5 hours? (that's at the most!) It's more like the difference between someone (male) 90 making it to 110, or 80 living to 100 (depending on the meal start time). Despite the fact they made it to the first figure, odds are damned high they won't make it to the second. In fact even if they make it to 90 it's still highly unlikely they'll make 100. What's most likely is they'll die the next few years in either case. That they made it to the first figure isn't all that relevant because it's required to even consider whether they'll make it to the second, but it doesn't give some sort of blanket amnesty to the ravages of age, it's still damned unlikely anyone will make it to 100 and 110 is almost unobtainable. That's the part of the curve we're at with ToD.

No he used 6:30.

I was going off of this from memory:

Professor Introna therefore recalled the witness depositions of Meredith’s friends, from which it would have resulted that Meredith began eating her last meal at around 18:30–19:00 pm on November 1, 2007 (page 25 of the report already cited several times, and the declarations made in the court hearing of June 20, 2009). Based on these elements, and considering a time of gastric emptying of 2 to 3 hours after the commencement of the ingestion of the last meal, Professor Introna asserts that the violence suffered by Meredith, and which probably caused the cessation of the digestive process, began between 21:00 pm and 21:30 pm.

I think Dr. Introna may have given conditional estimates, showing also that even with a 7 PM meal start that it's highly unlikely Meredith was still alive at 9:30. Do you get this? That's the part of the curve we're at. It's essentially impossible she was alive at 9:30 if the meal was started at 6:00 or before, almost certain she was dead by 9:30 if the meal started at 6:30 and still highly unlikely those conditions would endure until 9:30 if the meal was started at 7:00 PM. That last half hour is the one that kills (basically) every chance of someone making it to the next half hour, much like the years from 90-110 pretty much weed out whoever might have made it to 90 in the first place. Making it to 90 is no guarantee of living to 110, it's still highly unlikely.

I wasn't employing hyperbole when I said the original ToD was on the level of alien intervention, the three minute mile or ten feet tall. You can lose hours from it and it's still damned unlikely Meredith was still alive at 9:30 PM considering the 500 cc in her stomach, nothing in her duodenum and the most probable range of meal starts being between 6:00-6:30.

So the odds are the same at 2.5 and 3 hours, interesting.

No, that's not it. It's that there's not really much appreciable difference between the probability of her being alive at 9:30 regardless of whether the meal started at 6:00 or 6:30. Note that both figures are at or beyond the 3 hour limit testified to by a number of experts, and if I understand correctly Dr. Lalli, who originally estimated it with a high end of four hours corrected his estimate to make it three as well.

Too bad the phone calls didn't happen at 9:20 instead of just before 10.

Those were served by the same tower as the cottage but doesn't mean he was still in it, especially considering the 10:13 wasn't the same tower-- suggesting he'd moved recently---and there's plenty of places outside the cottage also served by that tower, it wasn't the cottages exclusive tower. Perhaps Rudy went into the copse of woods after fleeing the scene and took some time to think about what he'd done and calm down now that he was away and relatively safe, and/or disposed of the weapon and anything else incriminating he had, and in the process ended up dialing out while fumbling with them and other stuff in the dark?

No, this probably won't be the focus of the defense appeal, it's too damned complicated for people to understand, the nature of science and statistics doesn't come naturally to some people. It is however a very powerful argument for those who understand it but it was a lot easier to make it when the prosecution was proposing a ToD that was literally insane. Even with it at the barely possible range it's still compelling evidence Raffaele and Amanda couldn't have been involved in the murder.

 

[Grinder]

What sort of percentage are you looking for regarding reasonable doubt? If there was a 50% Meredith was dead by 9:30 would that be enough? 75%? 90%? 95%? 99%?

Since only 1.25% of people are 6'10" (made that up) or taller then someone 6'10" is highly unlikely to kill anybody therefore reasonable doubt?

Remember you used the example.

As I have said many a time, the ILE didn't prove murder beyond a reasonable doubt but I don't think you can put a percentage on one aspect. But for you I'd say 95%. Certainly if there is a 5% chance of something one can't rule it out.

I once had leg pains from a over the counter medicine. When I brought it to the doctors attention he didn't think much about it because there is only a 1% chance - guess what? 1% still happens so my doctor shouldn't have ruled it out.

It's the best one, kudos to Sampson. The fact you think the opposite means we're not communicating very well.

It's horrible and dumb. There is a .021% chance to live until one is 107 when born but a 30% chance that a 105 year old will live until that age.

Not 'strange,' simply the first one that came up and I saw it was from the SSA, I don't understand what relevance 119 vs. 120 would have.

Well since no one lived to 119 it sort of isn't relevant. You can not show any solid evidence on the long end of digestion. We just don't have that data. It is clear that the vast majority of meals start moving in half an hour. By your logic since it is almost impossible to not have started by 9:05 then something else is wrong with the data. Maybe Lalli missed a little chyme or as the brilliant Samson says maybe they didn't eat until 8:30.

You're using two year windows to account for the difference of a half hour in an for an event that can only vary by 2.5 hours? (that's at the most!) It's more like the difference between someone 90 making it to 110, or 80 living to 100 (depending on the meal start time). Despite the fact they made it to the first figure, odds are damned high they won't make it to the second. In fact even if they make it to 90 it's still highly unlikely they'll make 100. What's most likely is they'll die the next few years in either case. That they made it to the first figure isn't all that relevant because it's required to even consider whether they'll make it to the second, but it doesn't give some sort of blanket amnesty to the ravages of age, it's still damned unlikely anyone will make it to 100 and 110 is almost unobtainable. That's the part of the curve we're at with ToD.

As I said the age thing is stupid for the analysis. I used it to point out that once one reaches an age then living longer is a given and that the curve starts with that age. Meredith's digestion curve starts with no movement in whatever time you wish to assign. Btw, at 90 one has a 5% chance of making it to 100. If the oldest person to ever murder someone is 99 then does that mean a 100 year old must be innocent?

I think Dr. Introna may have given conditional estimates, showing also that even with a 7 PM meal start that it's highly unlikely Meredith was still alive at 9:30. Do you get this? That's the part of the curve we're at. It's essentially impossible she was alive at 9:30 if the meal was started at 6:00 or before, almost certain she was dead by 9:30 if the meal started at 6:30 and still highly unlikely those conditions would endure until 9:30 if the meal was started at 7:00 PM. That last half hour is the one that kills (basically) every chance of someone making it to the next half hour, much like the years from 90-110 pretty much weed out whoever might have made it to 90 in the first place. Making it to 90 is no guarantee of living to 110, it's still highly unlikely.

If the meal starts at 6 you say she dead by 9:30. If the meal started at 6:30, she was dead by 9:30. If the meal started at 7 she was dead by 9:30.

If one makes it to 105 then there is a 30% chance to make it to 107 but there was only a .021% chance at birth. You need to throw out all the information to the left of 2.5, 3, or 3.5 and then look at the chances of it going 30 minutes longer.

I wasn't employing hyperbole when I said the original ToD was on the level of alien intervention, the three minute mile or ten feet tall. You can lose hours from it and it's still damned unlikely Meredith was still alive considering the 500 cc in her stomach, nothing in her duodenum and the most probable range of meal starts being between 6:00-6:30.

Highly unlikely using your numbers that nothing moved before 9. Maybe she didn't eat her pizza until the apple crisp arrived. Maybe the ILE allowed chyme to move when they moved the body.

Those were served by the same tower as the cottage but don't mean he was still in it, especially considering the 10:13 wasn't the same tower-- suggesting he'd moved recently---and there's plenty of places outside the cottage also served by that tower, it wasn't the cottages exclusive tower. Perhaps Rudy went into the copse of woods after fleeing the scene and took some time to think about what he'd done and calm down now that he was away and relatively safe, and/or disposed of the weapon and anything else incriminating he had, and in the process ended up dialing out while fumbling with them and other stuff in the dark?

What about the couple that saw a black man running at 10:30. I know the woman didn't think it was Rudy but Mach has assured us there are only two blacks in Perugia so it must have been him.

No, this probably won't be the focus of the defense appeal, it's too damned complicated for people to understand, the nature of science and statistics doesn't come naturally to some people. It is however a very powerful argument for those who understand it but it was a lot easier to make it when the prosecution was proposing a ToD that was literally insane. Even with it at the barely possible range it's still compelling evidence Raffaele and Amanda couldn't have been involved in the murder.

Insults aside the fact is that it isn't a game of statistics and sayin the probability is less than x doesn't eliminate the possibility enough to make for a not guilty. Naruto hasn't been accepted as far as I know but even accepting it only puts one of them at Raf's.

You are willing to believe that nothing moved for 3 hours if the meal was at 6 yet you will not consider 3 1/4 hours if the meal happened at 6:30.

ETA - Here's what Introna said according to Massei:

He recalled the reports by Dr. Lalli and the other experts stating that under macroscopic examination, the stomach contents revealed a piece of apple and floury fragments which might have been from the crumble or from the pizza. He also recalled that the emptying of the stomach under standard conditions starts around three and a half hours after the start of a meal, say between three and four hours after, and that the term "emptying" indicates the stomach emptying its contents (into the duodenum). He asserted that "knowing that Meredith's meal started at 18:30 pm, knowing that there were about 500 cc of stomach contents, and knowing from the autopsy that there was no pathology of the stomach...which could slow down digestion, and above all", as reported by Dr. Lalli, knowing that the duodenum was still empty "because the stomach had not even begun to empty itself" (page 19 of the transcripts), the time of death must lie between 21:30 pm (three hours after 18:30) and 22:30 pm (four hours after 18:30), and that this timing agreed with the less rigid

 

[platonov]

More confusion

Platonov!

There's one thing this thread hasn't seen, it's those who defended the 11:45PM ToD (and mocked the attempts of LJ, Kevin Lowe and others who pointed out how improbable that was) coming to terms with the fact the prosecution itself seems to have abandoned that ToD. Why do you think that was?

Reading through these threads the first time, it was the responses to them on that subject from others (and later you as well) who thought Amanda and Raffaele guilty which put me on guard and (eventually) helped me to the realization that Bunnydom United was little more than liars, frauds and fools.

More confusion Kaosium.

What was dismissed as simplistic nonsense [and mocked by some !!] was the 'early & precise ToD' - 9.05 or whatever.

Unlike the intricacies of the DNA evidence, which was well over my head at the time, this is a relatively simple concept. There was no reason for honest arbiters who claimed to be accountants and the like to to obfuscate on it...but they did.


Why do you suppose that was ?

Yea ? Watches, windows and DNA analysis all have a similar learning curve it appears

ps Other websites are OT.

 

[acbytesla]

Originally Posted by Grinder View Post
Perhaps one of the cell experts will give us the skinny on this. It was in my head that the calls were made from the cottage as you remember Massei had Meredith lying on her bed playing with her phone.

Perhaps one of the cell experts will give us the skinny on this. It was in my head that the calls were made from the cottage as you remember Massei had Meredith lying on her bed playing with her phone.

The two calls could have been made at the cottage or outside or just about anywhere with a direct line of sight to the Lupatelli tower. The reason the 10:13 call was probably made from the Parco San Angelo, is that the walls of the city provided a thick stone wall obstruction to the radio waves from the Lupatelli tower.