Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[Trakar]

Now he acknowledges there is an effect by humans on the climate, but claims it is so small as to be irrelevant and not worth doing anything about...

Don't ever let him backtrack from the agreement of human impact, start out every conversation with him reminding him of his own agreement. It is like the old joke: "you've already demonstrated what kind of a woman you are,...now we are merely haggling over the price."

 

[macdoc]

oh and Arnold...do go take your concerns up with the US Navy...

Indeed all models are wrong but Arctic Models in particular tend to be far too conservative as noted.

US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016Is conventional modelling out of pace with speed and abruptness of global warming?

An ongoing US Department of Energy-backed research project led by a US Navy scientist predicts that the Arctic could lose its summer sea ice cover as early as 2016 - 84 years ahead of conventional model projections.

The project, based out of the US Naval Postgraduate School's Department of Oceanography, uses complex modelling techniques that make its projections more accurate than others.

A paper by principal investigator Professor Wieslaw Maslowski in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences sets out some of the findings so far of the research project:

"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover."

The paper is highly critical of global climate models (GCM) and even the majority of regional models, noting that "many Arctic climatic processes that are omitted from, or poorly represented in, most current-generation GCMs" which "do not account for important feedbacks among various system components." There is therefore "a great need for improved understanding and model representation of physical processes and interactions specific to polar regions that currently might not be fully accounted for or are missing in GCMs."

According to the US Department of Energy describing the project's development of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM):

"Given that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, understanding the processes and feedbacks of this polar amplification is a top priority. In addition, Arctic glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet are expected to change significantly and contribute to sea level rise in the coming decades."

more
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/09/us-navy-arctic-sea-ice-2016-melt

Now why would that be warming Arnold??
Have you answered the question??

Does CO2 trap IR??

 

[OCaptain]

In 2007 Scientist models indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free by summer 2013.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

Did it happen ?

The mistake you're making is in assuming that this group's work, methodology and conclusions were part of the consensus of climate science. The BBC News staff picked the angle of the story that was the most dramatic, not the most accurate.

The article refers briefly to "These other teams have variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100."

Doesn't make for as exciting a headline as "ice-free summer North Pole by 2013" does it?

You really should ignore news reports if you're looking for science accuracy.

 

[CapelDodger]

Sorry if this is a bit off topic but does anyone know what happened to the Global Warming denier Diamond who used to debate in this forum?

And has he since changed his views?

Not one for changing views was Diamond, but as reported, long gone. Was previously TitanPoint, as I recall. Carpet-chewer and big fan of John Daly. Not particularly missed .

 

[CapelDodger]

From the NOAA National Climate Data Center

National Summary Information - February 2014

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2014/2

U.S. saw regional extremes for winter 2013/2014 including widespread dryness, unusual cold, record warmth, and heavy snow

Weird weather.

Above and much above average temperatures were present for Florida and much of the West. California had its warmest winter on record, while Arizona had its fourth warmest. The California winter temperature was 48.0°F, 4.4°F above the 20th century average, far exceeding the previous record, set in 1980/81, by 0.8°F.

Things might get tricky in parts of California this summer.

 

[CapelDodger]

Now he acknowledges there is an effect by humans on the climate, but claims it is so small as to be irrelevant and not worth doing anything about...

If he's accepted the greenhouse effect you might ask why a 40% increase in CO₂ wouldn't have a significant impact. 40% is not a "trace" perentage. Imagine if it was a tax-rise, for instance. It would be the end of civilisation .

Can the "water vapour is the main greenhouse gas" be long in coming? Probably not.

 

[Trakar]

Seems like we got to a hundred pages a lot faster this time!

 

[Trakar]

From the NOAA National Climate Data Center

National Summary Information - February 2014

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2014/2

Weird weather.

Things might get tricky in parts of California this summer.

Things are likely to get tricky wherever shifting circulation patterns start redistributing the extra energies being absorbed, transported through and accumulated within, the various regions of our planet's ecosphere,...but, yeah, tricky in California and a lot of other areas,...increasingly so.

 

[r-j]

Rockoon

I'm still waiting for this study which links tree ring growth with temperature. Please supply the reference.

I can see why he left the forum.

 

[macdoc]

(Phys.org)Study suggests autumn Arctic sea ice can be used to predict European winter weather

—A pair of researchers with L'Ocean IPSL Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris has published a paper in the journal Nature Geoscience describing research they've been conducting regarding the amount of Arctic sea ice in September and how it can be used to help predict how severe the following winter will be in Europe. Using maximum covariance analysis on data from 1979/1980–2012/2013, researchers Claude Frankignoul and Javier García-Serrano found that a correlation skill of .59 could be achieved in forecasting the harshness of the following European winter.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-03-autumn-arctic-sea-ice-european.html#jCp

 

[macdoc]

Permafrost thaw exacerbates climate change
Mar 21, 2014
Permafrost thaw: No upside

The climate is warming in the arctic at twice the rate of the rest of the globe creating a longer growing season and increased plant growth, which captures atmospheric carbon, and thawing permafrost, which releases carbon into the atmosphere. Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC) Assistant Scientist Sue Natali and colleagues engineered first-of-a-kind warming experiments in the field to determine net gains or losses in carbon emissions. The study entitled "Permafrost degradation stimulates carbon loss from experimentally warmed tundra," published in the journal Ecology found that growing season gains do not offset carbon emissions from permafrost thaw.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-03-permafrost-exacerbates-climate.html#jCp

good science

snip

According to Dr. Natali, "Our results show that while permafrost degradation increased carbon uptake during the growing season, in line with decadal trends of 'greening' tundra, warming and permafrost thaw also enhanced winter respiration, which doubled annual carbon losses."

fancy that....decadal trends...

 

[lomiller]

In 2007 Scientist models indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free by summer 2013.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

Did it happen ?

A single run of a single model showed an ice free Arctic that early, the mean across multiple models and runs is in the 2040-2060 range with more outliers coming in at 2100 or later. What this suggests is that there is a very remote possibility of an ice free arctic this decade but a date around 2040 is most likely.

THIS is the actual prediction made, in the future please refrain from making up your own predictions and claiming they were not met. The popular press article you linked to is covering someone dissenting with this consensus prediction saying it will occur earlier, and even it says outright that 2013 is unlikely.

In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.

 

[lomiller]

These guys say arctic sea ice volume is up 50% for 2013

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/arctic-sea-ice-volume-up-50-1.2465952

Anyone disagree ?

Did you read the part where sea ice volume is one of the lowest ever? Not setting a new record every single year is not the same as recovery.

Sounds like Polar Bear populations are stable with possible increases in some areas.

Some areas are data deficient (not surveyed) but overall it sounds like good news Bears

http://polarbearscience.com/2014/03...13-deconstructed-with-a-map-to-the-good-news/

Not surprisingly the areas where polar bear populations are stable still have significant ice coverage. Fully how that works isn’t it?

More good news

Great Lakes under second largest amount of ice cover ever reported

The highest was during our 1970's mini-ice-age

Climatologists say the extensive ice may help to keep temps a bit cooler and less humid this summer.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamil...-per-cent-may-cause-cool-dry-summer-1.2559101

.

It says highest coverage since 1979. The lake Ontario graphic you copied (did you obtain permission?) goes back to 1973, so it covers a period when ice coverage is very low. Being the highest ice coverage in a period of very low ice coverage isn’t exactly a promising sign.

Related:

It looks like some deniers got their panties in a bunch about NOAA saying this winter was slightly below normal on the east coast. It seems they looked at some other sources that said it was well below normal and one of the coldest, and decided NOAA was lying. Turns out that it was only cold when compared to the last 30 years but only slightly below normal for the last 100.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/03/19/what-were-up-against/

IOW we get a somewhat normal winter for the first time in 30 years and the deniers are screaming that it’s some type of record low.

 

[Turgor]

Did you read the part where sea ice volume is one of the lowest ever? Not setting a new record every single year is not the same as recovery.

Not surprisingly the areas where polar bear populations are stable still have significant ice coverage. Fully how that works isn’t it?

It says highest coverage since 1979. The lake Ontario graphic you copied (did you obtain permission?) goes back to 1973, so it covers a period when ice coverage is very low. Being the highest ice coverage in a period of very low ice coverage isn’t exactly a promising sign.

Related:

It looks like some deniers got their panties in a bunch about NOAA saying this winter was slightly below normal on the east coast. It seems they looked at some other sources that said it was well below normal and one of the coldest, and decided NOAA was lying. Turns out that it was only cold when compared to the last 30 years but only slightly below normal for the last 100.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/03/19/what-were-up-against/

IOW we get a somewhat normal winter for the first time in 30 years and the deniers are screaming that it’s some type of record low.

Meanwhile, winter decided to skip a large part of Europe this year. In the Netherlands, it was the 2nd warmest winter in 300 years!
http://translate.google.nl/translat...118252/winter_een_van_de_zachtste_in_300_jaar

It was also the warmest februari ever recorded, with only 1 day where temperatures dropped (barely) below freezing point.

While searching for some data for Europe as a whole, I found pages after pages of deniers crowing about how we would get a repeat of the 2012-2013 winter, mostly written in the latter half of september 2013.

 

[Trakar]

I can see why he left the forum.

Agreed, being a hard core defender of demonstrated scientific frauds like Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick while he considered himself a proponent of true skepticism (SkepticWiki Founder) Must have finally gotten too dissonant for him to take and he either changed his name to distance himself from such foolishness or just moved where his record wouldn't hound him.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Steve_McIntyre

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Ross_McKitrick

or perhaps he just found more fertile ground to spread his confusions, they don't seem to have gained much traction in a forum dedicated to science and evidences,

 

[macdoc]

riginally Posted by Arnold Martin
These guys say arctic sea ice volume is up 50% for 2013

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ar...p-50-1.2465952

Anyone disagree ?

You do your credibility no favours putting up stuff out of context that you clearly do not understand the implications. ( or one would hope you would not publish it )
When you have a record low of course you expect a rebound nearer to the declining averages ....and it's month dependent.
Did you also see that there was a melt in February ....astonishing. Could be a lead in to another record low extent.

Then there is Alaska....off the charts warmth.

•®••

Does C02 trap IR??
Your failure to answer kinda puts any claim to a science approach in question

 

[lomiller]

Meanwhile, winter decided to skip a large part of Europe this year. In the Netherlands, it was the 2nd warmest winter in 300 years!
http://translate.google.nl/translat...118252/winter_een_van_de_zachtste_in_300_jaar

It was also the warmest februari ever recorded, with only 1 day where temperatures dropped (barely) below freezing point.

While searching for some data for Europe as a whole, I found pages after pages of deniers crowing about how we would get a repeat of the 2012-2013 winter, mostly written in the latter half of september 2013.

They also like to conveniently ignore that one of the predictions arising from a warmer planet is a weaker jet stream more prone to blocking patterns. What this means is that we are more prone to warm/cold or wet/dry weather patterns that persist for long periods of time. IOW, pretty much exactly what we have seen wrt regional cold/warm/wet/dry.

 

[Turgor]

They also like to conveniently ignore that one of the predictions arising from a warmer planet is a weaker jet stream more prone to blocking patterns. What this means is that we are more prone to warm/cold or wet/dry weather patterns that persist for long periods of time. IOW, pretty much exactly what we have seen wrt regional cold/warm/wet/dry.

What I didn't realize about the wavering jet stream is how it could affect different parts of the northern hemisphere very differently. Last year pretty much the entire NH experienced persisting cold weather, but this year it's very different on both sides of the Atlantic. Although parts of Canada seem to have been much warmer than average this year as well.

Does anyone know of any good, not too technical explanation I could read?

 

[Trakar]

What I didn't realize about the wavering jet stream is how it could affect different parts of the northern hemisphere very differently. Last year pretty much the entire NH experienced persisting cold weather, but this year it's very different on both sides of the Atlantic. Although parts of Canada seem to have been much warmer than average this year as well.

Does anyone know of any good, not too technical explanation I could read?

http://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/jetstream.pdf

 

[CapelDodger]

While searching for some data for Europe as a whole, I found pages after pages of deniers crowing about how we would get a repeat of the 2012-2013 winter, mostly written in the latter half of september 2013.

Celebrating events in advance of the outcome is a definite AGW denier trait. I first noticed it way back when Watts et al launched their SurfaceStations project; great satisfaction was expressed with what the data would show (or rather, confirm) when it came in. As it did come in the noise faded away, and it's now regarded as rude to even mention it at WattsUpMyButt.

It's a rational response to serial disappointment, I suppose.