[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

[Garrette]

Jabba's claim is not my claim.

I know and have known. I wasn't equating Jabba's entire argument with you, just the specific claim about giganogargantuan equaling infinity.

You don't know what my claim would be, were I to present it. Which I won't.

Fine by me. I'm not the one who keeps bringing it up.

You've all been barking up the wrong tree, espefially Jabba.

Possibly, but hardly worth the effort you used to type it up if, as long ago, you intend only to make the vague claim without expounding.

Jabba just happened to touch on something meaningful, then immediately proceeded to bark up the wrong tree.

See above.

And your grade just went to 50.

The gradings of those who remain vague in an attempt to sound wise mean little to me.

But wait, I see you retracted the wrong response. So you've managed to cling precariously to the 67.

See above.

 

[godless dave]

I have yet to see Jabba touch on anything meaningful.

 

[zooterkin]

Incidentally, does anyone know what Jabba is trying to prove with this "infinite number of Volkswagens" business?

And are they supposed to be identical, or different? Does VW mean VW Beetle? Of a specific year and trim level, or any VW vehicle at all?

 

[Humots]

You're not even giving Jabba credit for knowing that doesn't work?

Just in case anyone doesn't know why that doesn't work: given an infinity of possible souls, the expectation that God creates a particular one is nil.

For that matter, given any giganogargantuan finite potential number of anything, the expectation that any particular potential something will happen at a particular required point in spacetime is very nearly nil, so you're all just arguing over a minute difference that is practically immaterial.

If by minute difference, you mean the difference between 1/(finite number) = finite decimal number and 1/(infinity) = 0, the difference is not minute. It is, in fact, infinite, in that you can find an infinite number of finite decimal numbers between 1/(finite number) and 0.

 

[Toontown]

I know and have known. I wasn't equating Jabba's entire argument with you, just the specific claim about giganogargantuan equaling infinity.

You are mathematically correct about giganogargantuan not equalling infinity. But I'm correct about the difference being practically immaterial.

You are being chased by a pack of ravenous wolves. You've been driven relentlessly to the edge of a cliff. Far below there is water of unknown depth.

If you jump, the odds against your survival are giganogargantuan. But if you don't jump, there are no odds. The wolves will dismember and eat you, probability 1.

Sure, there's a mathematical difference. But get real. The only practical choice you have is how you prefer to die.

I would jump, but that doesn't mean I would have any expectation of surviving. I just don't want to be dismembered by wolves.

That's the only practical difference between giganogargantuan odds and infinite odds.

 

[godless dave]

The fact that you would jump suggests that there is, in fact, a practical difference.

 

[jt512]

You're not even giving Jabba credit for knowing that doesn't work?

Just in case anyone doesn't know why that doesn't work: given an infinity of possible souls, the expectation that God creates a particular one is nil.

It seems that either God or you doesn't understand the axioms of probability. My money's on you.

 

[Garrette]

You are mathematically correct about giganogargantuan not equalling infinity. But I'm correct about the difference being practically immaterial.

You are being chased by a pack of ravenous wolves. You've been driven relentlessly to the edge of a cliff. Far below there is water of unknown depth.

If you jump, the odds against your survival are giganogargantuan. But if you don't jump, there are no odds. The wolves will dismember and eat you, probability 1.

Sure, there's a mathematical difference. But get real. The only practical choice you have is how you prefer to die.

I would jump, but that doesn't mean I would have any expectation of surviving. I just don't want to be dismembered by wolves.

That's the only practical difference between giganogargantuan odds and infinite odds.

While I get the sentiment, from an objective point of view I have to go with:

The fact that you would jump suggests that there is, in fact, a practical difference.

 

[Garrette]

It seems that either God or you doesn't understand the axioms of probability. My money's on you.

Hmmm. It didn't come out that way; it came out as taking the 1-in-giganogargantuan-odds as opposed to the 1-in-infinity odds.

 

[Garrette]

It seems that either God or you doesn't understand the axioms of probability. My money's on you.

I'm interested in your thinking on this (seriously, no snark). I had thought of objecting with something along the lines of It depends on how he defines the God. I had not considered any axioms that mitigate against it.

 

[HighRiser]

Great. Now there's gonna have to be a thread about how to essentially prove that infinity practically is a large number.

 

[jt512]

If by minute difference, you mean the difference between 1/(finite number) = finite decimal number and 1/(infinity) = 0, the difference is not minute. It is, in fact, infinite, in that you can find an infinite number of finite decimal numbers between 1/(finite number) and 0.

That can't be a good criterion for what constitutes a "minute difference," since there are an infinite number of real numbers between any two real numbers.

 

[Garrette]

Great. Now there's gonna have to be a thread about how to essentially prove that infinity practically is a large number.

It's been done, and started some time before this post by Toontown.

 

[jt512]

My money squarely on you, since you have revealed your own ignorance of probability.

We have no clue what God will decide to do, therefore His decisions are, from our perspective, entirely probabilistic.

Here you are pretending to be this big probability expert, and you don't even know that?

FYI, probability theory was developed at a time when the universe was broadly seen as entirely deterministic.

You wrote: "given an infinity of possible souls, the expectation that God creates a particular one is nil."

Provide a mathematical proof that the expectation is 0, show how you calculated the expectation, or admit you're talking out of your ass (as usual).

And, BTW, I do not claim to be an expert on probability.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

That can't be a good criterion for what constitutes a "minute difference," since there are an infinite number of real numbers between any two real numbers.

How about this - between any gargantuan number you could care to name and infinity lie an infinite number of integers.

 

[Slowvehicle]

Slowvehicle,
- Can I define a situation in such a way as to completely limit its possible outcomes?

Good afternoon, Mr. Savage!

Of course you can. You may define a situation howe're it suits you. Where you do err is when you try to define one situation one way, and define one situation in a different way; than pretend that it is the nature of the situations, rather than your definitions, that cause the differences between them.

Limited cards? You must then postulate limited VW parts.

"Infinite" resources to build VWs? You must then postulate "infinite" decks of cards.

When do you intend to address the rudeness of your misstatement that everyone on the forum thinks you are stupid or crazy?

 

[Jabba]

- Just got a note from Dr. Hoerl. Says he is skeptical also, but is willing to listen to a reasonable argument. Sounds like you guys. The following was my response.

Roger,
Thanks.
Sorry for my poor timing. A friend on the forum just reminded me that this might be a bad time of the year.
The basic idea is that the likelihood of my current existence -- given the hypothesis that each potential human “self” has but one, finite time to exist, at most – is so small (one over infinity?) as to preclude the hypothesis being correct…
I’ll be back.
Thanks, again.
Rich

 

[Mojo]

I think so.

Stated differently than my original post:

Infinite VWs means infinite selves means infinite souls.

Probability of one particular soul given the scientifically postulated universe is nil.

Probability of one particular soul given a universe in which God can choose souls is greater than nil.

Ergo: The universe is not the scientifically postulated one but the one with God choosing special people to create.

I thought he was supposed to be trying to prove immortality, not the existence of God.

 

[Monza]

I thought he was supposed to be trying to prove immortality, not the existence of God.

I think it is his intrinsic intent versus his extrinsic intent. The proof of God will come swiftly after the proof of immortality. Unfortunately, the proof of immortality is taking a while.

 

[carlitos]

Essentially