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[Merged] Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

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I'd love to see the text of your email.
- Ask, and you shall receive.
- Dr. Hoerl got his PhD at the University of Delaware.

Dr. Hoerl,

I graduated from U of D back in ’65 (with Joe Biden!). I went on to NYU for a Masters in Ed Psych. I started a Phd program there, but decided to finish at SUNYA. I did finish all my course work, but that’s where it ended. If we get to talk some time, I’ll give you the rest of the story. I chose Statistics as my official “language,” and do enjoy its different concepts…
Anyway, my wife and I live on the edge of Niskayuna, about a mile from the Union campus, and I would like to communicate with you – personally, or by email – if you can find the time. I often have lunch over at the Union cafeteria.

For the last couple of years, I’ve been debating with the “skeptics” at http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/. My stage name is “Jabba,” and everyone else on the forum thinks I’m crazy, stupid or both…
You can find my latest venture starting at http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=248163.
Anyway, I’ve been arguing that I can essentially prove immortality through Bayesian Statistics. Obviously, no one I know, or that is on the forum, agrees with me – but, I still think it’s true…
A concept that we on the thread are currently tripping over is the number of “potential selves.” Does seem sort of crazy, huh? Anyway, one of the skeptics looked you up and suggested that I ask you about my claims.

You now have my email address. My telephone number is 377-2150.
Hope to talk to you soon.

Rich Savage



 
<snip for focus>For the last couple of years, I’ve been debating with the “skeptics” at http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/. My stage name is “Jabba,” and everyone else on the forum thinks I’m crazy, stupid or both…
<snip for focus>

Good afternoon, Mr. Savage.

I wonder if you have any idea just how demeaning and insulting it is to characterize me, and others on this thread, as:

“skeptics”

...as if, I, or anyone here, had made claim to the title of

“skeptic”

...and you feel justified implying that I am, and others are, not really

“skeptics”
.
For what it's worth, I do not claim to be a skeptic.

I also wonder if you have any idea how demeaning and insulting it is for you to make the dishonest statement that

...everyone else on the forum thinks I’m crazy, stupid or both...
.
I disagree with your premises, and your debate style, and your frequent, pervasive logical errors, but I deny that you can show where anything I have posted indicates that you are

...crazy, stupid or both...
.
I hope you have the honesty and decency to correct (at least these two of) your misstatements to Dr. Hoerl.

I expect you to respond to this post, explaining yourself.

Then again, I drink coffee out of a Disneyland mug.
 
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Jabba, you might get a more productive exchange from this fellow if you were to lay out all of your reasoning to him right off the bat, rather than by directing him to a rambling thread on a forum that's more than a hundred pages long and which spans the past 18 months. He's likely to read a few paragraphs, but he's not going to invest the time in reading this thread, especially as you didn't even begin to post anything relevant until page 3. Filling your email with your own invented jargon like "potential selves" is going to do you no favours, either.

Jabba, I have reported your post to the mods with a view to having your phone number obscured. Posting such is never a good idea.

Just what I was going to do.
 
I trust you will point out to Dr Hoerl that you were in error when you asserted that everyone on the forum thinks you are "crazy, stupid or both". I have not seen either of these sentiments expressed by anyone, no matter how frustrated they get at your logical errors and at your debating style. I will join Slowvehicle in specifically denying that I think you are either crazy or stupid.

You really should not post your phone number on an open forum. I suggest you edit it.
 
You really should not post your phone number on an open forum. I suggest you edit it.
That ship has sailed, if I understand the limits for edits. Best bet is if a mod sees the report.

ETA: A bunch of reports might provoke a quicker response. Volunteers please.

ETA2: And they say atheists have no moral compass? LOL
 
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Anyway, I’ve been arguing that I can essentially prove immortality through Bayesian Statistics


Rather than directing the professor to this meat grinder of a thread, perhaps you should just summarize your ideas for him. Then ask him specific questions about your ideas. You didn't actually ask him for anything.
 
- Ask, and you shall receive.
- Dr. Hoerl got his PhD at the University of Delaware.

Dr. Hoerl,

I graduated from U of D back in ’65 (with Joe Biden!). I went on to NYU for a Masters in Ed Psych. I started a Phd program there, but decided to finish at SUNYA. I did finish all my course work, but that’s where it ended. If we get to talk some time, I’ll give you the rest of the story. I chose Statistics as my official “language,” and do enjoy its different concepts…
Anyway, my wife and I live on the edge of Niskayuna, about a mile from the Union campus, and I would like to communicate with you – personally, or by email – if you can find the time. I often have lunch over at the Union cafeteria.

For the last couple of years, I’ve been debating with the “skeptics” at http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/. My stage name is “Jabba,” and everyone else on the forum thinks I’m crazy, stupid or both…
You can find my latest venture starting at http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=248163.
Anyway, I’ve been arguing that I can essentially prove immortality through Bayesian Statistics. Obviously, no one I know, or that is on the forum, agrees with me – but, I still think it’s true…
A concept that we on the thread are currently tripping over is the number of “potential selves.” Does seem sort of crazy, huh? Anyway, one of the skeptics looked you up and suggested that I ask you about my claims.

You now have my email address.
Hope to talk to you soon.

Rich Savage




Why the scary "quote" marks?

1. If I were you, I would try to remove your phone number, as others have suggested. It is not generally a good idea to include phone numbers on the web.

2. I agree that the less discussion of this thread in your conversations with Dr. Hoeri the less backstory he/she will have to read, and the less likely he/she will prejudge you request. Also, as far as I know, no post here ever accused you of being stupid, even if we feel that some of your views are in error and require additional information to be correct. Also be assured that I actively avoid debating with actual crazy people. There is no point, and it is offensive to me.

3. It is of course fine to ask Dr. Hoeri if your use of Bayes formulas apply to reincarnation; this is math. But more specifically, I hoped that he/she was being consulted about your novel concepts of something being intrinsically or extrinsically finite and VWs being potentially infinite and cards/lottery tickets not. This is what I am particularly interested in from a math point of view, Frankly his/her views of the self are not relevant; he/she is a math professor and has no particular expertise on this metaphysical matter.
 
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Why the scary "quote" marks?

1. If I were you, I would try to remove your phone number, as others have suggested. It is not generally a good idea to include phone numbers on the web.

2. I agree that the less discussion of this thread in your conversations with Dr. Hoeri the less backstory he/she will have to read, and the less likely he/she will prejudge you request. Also, as far as I know, no post here ever accused you of being stupid, even if we feel that some of your views are in error and require additional information to be correct. Also be assured that I actively avoid debating with actual crazy people. There is no point, and it is offensive to me.

3. It is of course fine to ask Dr. Hoeri if your use of Bayes formulas apply to reincarnation; this is math. But more specifically, I hoped that he/she was being consulted about your novel concepts of something being intrinsically or extrinsically finite and VWs being potentially infinite and cards/lottery tickets not. This is what I am particularly interested in from a math point of view, Frankly his/her views of the self are not relevant; he/she is a math professor and has no particular expertise on this metaphysical matter.
You had to quote it.

For your penance, REPORT THE STUPID PHONE NUMBER.
 
- How about this.

- I've defined the poker situation as a "closed" system -- the possibilities are limited by the givens. Such is not the case in the Volkswagen situation -- if the number of possible different (separate) Volkswagens is limited, it is limited by "non-givens."
- These are two different types of limitations -- two different types of "finiteness."

- Can you agree to that, so far? By agreeing, you will not be committing to anything else -- and, you will still be free to change your mind, anyway.

No, Jabba, no.
The limitations are the same in both cases and both cases are closed systems.
 
Giordiano can at least edit his quote of it - and I think there is still ten minutes or so for Jabba to edit his post (two hour edit window, I believe).

Jabba, I thought the idea of emailing Dr Hoerl was to talk about your notion of intrinsic and extrinsic infinity? As he's a maths professor rather than a philosopher, "potential selves" is probably not his area of expertise.
 
*Face palm* Did he actually just post someone's phone number to this forum?

That poor, poor man.
 
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