Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[KoihimeNakamura]

77% is not 95%.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The world hasn't moved on. Only in your imagination. The goal of the vast majority of the world is not to be equal to the west, but eventually to become superior to the west. That the west managed as a series of separate entities to bring near universal and uniform damage to the vast majority of the world's people will never be forgotten. The "cartoon" anti-imperialism you speak of is a genuine distrust for all powerful western governments who have proven themselves hypocritical and abusive in the past.

The west, whatever it maybe, must be kept in check. Western nations, or all nations for that matter, cannot be allowed to gain too much power.

Poe's law was made for posts like this.

 

[L.Y.S.]

nvm

 

[Puppycow]

This is a plausible majority. One last time trying to break it to you: The overall turnout is counted at 81,37% at the moment. The rest is the "keep it as it is" vote. 95% of the 81,37% are for joining Russia, 5 % are for greater autonomy under the 90s constitution.

Keep it as it is: 1-0.8137 = 18,63%
More Autonomy: 0.05*0.8137 = 4,0%
Join Russia: 0.95*0.8137 = 77,3%

About as expected.

I expressed doubts earlier that this referendum could be free, fair and credible (posts#1203 and #1208 on page 31 of this thread), and I haven't seen anything yet to allay those doubts.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/russias-micex-index-falls-2014-3

“Moreover, we note that previous measures of Crimean public opinion have not revealed a clear majority in favour of joining Russia: in 1991, 54% of the population voted for Ukrainian independence, and in an opinion poll in early February, 41% of the population said they wanted to join Russia,” said Morgan Stanley’s Russia economics and strategy team.

Did so many people change their mind between early February and now?
The other thing I said was that without neutral observers, the results would not be credible. Were there any credible neutral observers involved?
I don't think it's enough for the numbers simply to be "plausible". A thing can be "plausible" but not true.

It's possible that the true turnout was much less than 80% and the balance was made up by ballot-stuffing.

 

[Mycroft]

This is a plausible majority. One last time trying to break it to you: The overall turnout is counted at 81,37% at the moment. The rest is the "keep it as it is" vote. 95% of the 81,37% are for joining Russia, 5 % are for greater autonomy under the 90s constitution.

Keep it as it is: 1-0.8137 = 18,63%
More Autonomy: 0.05*0.8137 = 4,0%
Join Russia: 0.95*0.8137 = 77,3%

About as expected.

What...?

It doesn't make any sense to count those that didn't vote as having "voted". They didn't. It's absurd to assume that 100% would have supported the option not even included on the ballot.

 

[Puppycow]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832

Sergei Aksyonov, who was installed as Crimea's regional government leader after Russia's military takeover, said a session of parliament would take place on Monday.

"The Supreme Soviet of Crimea will make an official application for the republic to join the Russian Federation at a meeting on March 17," he said on Twitter after the vote.

"The Supreme Soviet"???

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe...ferendum-20140317,0,87510.story#axzz2wC4sgNAm

Voting was carried out under the watchful eyes of Russian troops and pro-Moscow militia members who seized control of the peninsula last month, saying they were protecting ethnic Russians and Russian interests.

I wonder if voters felt free to vote how they really feel "under the watchful eyes of Russian troops and pro-Moscow militia members"? I wonder if it could have influenced the exit polls too. And who conducted the exit polls anyway?

 

[trustbutverify]

Are you serious?

Yup.

 

[jimbob]

The thing is, there could well be a majority wanting to join Russia - however this wasn't the way to find that out.

An election with impartial observers, and called with enough time to allow proper scrutiny of the result would have given a real mandate.

 

[McHrozni]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832
"The Supreme Soviet"???

Soviet = gathering in this context, it means parliament. The world is in use all over former USSR, I think.

I wonder if voters felt free to vote how they really feel "under the watchful eyes of Russian troops and pro-Moscow militia members"? I wonder if it could have influenced the exit polls too. And who conducted the exit polls anyway?

It would be a wonder if it didn't affect the polls, truth to be told.

McHrozni

 

[Klimax]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832


"The Supreme Soviet"???

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe...ferendum-20140317,0,87510.story#axzz2wC4sgNAm



I wonder if voters felt free to vote how they really feel "under the watchful eyes of Russian troops and pro-Moscow militia members"? I wonder if it could have influenced the exit polls too. And who conducted the exit polls anyway?

About same as a particular region already saw:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zakarpatska_Oblast

I see Putin and Russians in Crimea still didn't forget how to do these things...

Nothing new here. It's all the same as we remember.

 

[McHrozni]

This is a plausible majority. One last time trying to break it to you: The overall turnout is counted at 81,37% at the moment. The rest is the "keep it as it is" vote. 95% of the 81,37% are for joining Russia, 5 % are for greater autonomy under the 90s constitution.

Keep it as it is: 1-0.8137 = 18,63%
More Autonomy: 0.05*0.8137 = 4,0%
Join Russia: 0.95*0.8137 = 77,3%

About as expected.

Assuming none of those who voted would favor an option not on the ballot (essentially impossible) and none of those who voted felt intimidated by the presence of Russian forces and altered the result (impossible), and that there was no fraud by multiple votes (CNN has footage of someone using two ballots, so this one is a no-no) and that there was no problem with voter registration (80% had no entry, it was decided on the spot who can vote and who can't - i.e. it was deeply flawed at best) and Putin didn't bus people into Crimea (unlikely, since there was testimony of that happening and the voter registration was non-existent).

For all we know the genuine support for Russia was in the low forties or lower than that. Two years from now genuine support will evaporate, since Crimea will suffer a significant drop in tourist arrivals in that time (70% of tourists were from mainland Ukraine) and will suffer from problems with water and electricity, supplied from the mainland. Add in a drop in democracy and I foresee a genuine desire to repeat the referendum in a few years' time. I expect Putin to put down such 'illegal' talk swiftly and brutally.

These things can be fixed in time, but not in two years, and certainly not by Russia.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I think Putin really screwed this 'referendum' up. The numbers are totally unrealistic, they basically state that if no significant number of Tatars voted, all Russians and well over half of Ukrainians were in favor of annexation to Russia, and voted so in the referendum. The referendum is as legitimate as the recent 'election' of Kim Jong Un.

He could easily fake the results to something more believable, like 68% in favor, 30% in opposition, rest invalid or something like that. That could almost be believed, and he could still use it as a pretext to annex the peninsula 96%? Nope.

McHrozni

 

[uke2se]

I think Putin really screwed this 'referendum' up. The numbers are totally unrealistic, they basically state that if no significant number of Tatars voted, all Russians and well over half of Ukrainians were in favor of annexation to Russia, and voted so in the referendum. The referendum is as legitimate as the recent 'election' of Kim Jong Un.

He could easily fake the results to something more believable, like 68% in favor, 30% in opposition, rest invalid or something like that. That could almost be believed, and he could still use it as a pretext to annex the peninsula 96%? Nope.

McHrozni

I don't think he cares, to be honest. He can point to the "referendum" and ask anyone who disbeliefs to prove their doubts - impossible as no independent observers were let in. With Russian media being what it is, he isn't likely to be questioned by many domestically. It's basically another aggressive move with (im)plausible deniability to placate the useful idiots in the West.

 

[McHrozni]

I don't think he cares, to be honest. He can point to the "referendum" and ask anyone who disbeliefs to prove their doubts - impossible as no independent observers were let in. With Russian media being what it is, he isn't likely to be questioned by many domestically. It's basically another aggressive move with (im)plausible deniability to placate the useful idiots in the West.

Sadly, true. At least the 'useful' idiots will be few and far between. Has Chomsky said anything on it yet?

On the other hand:

Some 80% of voters turning out at a polling station in Bakhchysaray were not on the electoral roll, the registrar told CNN. Those not on the roll have their passports and papers checked to establish identity. On the spot, election staff decide, with a show of hands, whether to allow those voters to participate.

A CNN team photographed one voter dropping two pieces of paper into the ballot box, raising questions over how effectively the vote is being monitored.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

These two - perhaps even either of these two - alone are enough to cast enough doubt on the vote to render it invalid in a country with democracy and rule of law.

McHrozni

 

[uke2se]

Swedish tv journalist detained outside Sevastopol by Russian military. Passports and equipment confiscated. Latest reports say they are being "held on the scene" until a ranking officer can decide what to do with them.

http://www.tv4.se/nyheterna/klipp/tv4-team-på-krim-gripna-av-beväpnade-män-2578478 (Swedish)

 

[Childlike Empress]

I expressed doubts earlier that this referendum could be free, fair and credible (posts#1203 and #1208 on page 31 of this thread), and I haven't seen anything yet to allay those doubts.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/russias-micex-index-falls-2014-3



Did so many people change their mind between early February and now?
The other thing I said was that without neutral observers, the results would not be credible. Were there any credible neutral observers involved?
I don't think it's enough for the numbers simply to be "plausible". A thing can be "plausible" but not true.

It's possible that the true turnout was much less than 80% and the balance was made up by ballot-stuffing.

First of all I don't take the claim of that Morgan Stanley guy at face value. Almost nobody I'm aware of doubts that a majority of Crimeans wanted to join Russia for a long time. But maybe not as much as now wanted.

What happened let's say since early February? A violent putsch among whose first activities was undoing a law that gave equal status to the Russian language, that's what happened. A putsch whose muscle were guys adoring Bandera who Russians see as a butcher and Nazi collaborator. The "western" media can claim this is all Putin propaganda but that only shows their sillyness. Jarosh went on a rant these days threatening to blow up the oil pipelines! What do you think the putsch government's friend in Europe think about that, let alone the oligarchs who run them? Totally unsavory character. And his boss is now forming his own thug "National Guard" army to "integrate" all the armed gangs that helped him come to power. Do you think they will be better than J.'s Berkut? Or the disappeared police, or the apparently non-obedient army? Or will they be a SA terrorizing people in the provinces? If I were Crimean I wouldn't wait to find out but take the opportunity to get some serious security measures between me and them.

What else happened? Yesterday, 200 km down the Black Sea coast, the closing ceremony of the Paralympics happened. Ending an impressive +1 months giant sport event in the town of Sochi which stands there with top-notch new infrastructure while Crimea is a poorer part of piss-poor Ukraine. Also a factor, I would guess.

As to observers - did the organizations you would trust try to send some? Or didn't they dare to because the governments of their countries already decided it had to be a farce? I checked Carter Center, nothing - and we all enjoyed how he had the balls to go to Venezuela and tell the world it had one of the greatest systems he ever observed, while everybody else was parroting the lies of the pre$$titudes.

There were observers, though, for example a team of 30 from a European organization including MPs. Their report should be published today but first comments make it seem like everything was fine. I guess some of those people might be "outsiders" and easily smeared as minions of the ever-lurking great Satan Putin, but hey, there they are.

Also there's the guy who drives around Ukraine the last weeks in his old Rover with his cat and interviews people on the ground. In Odessa etc, he found some people who say Russia is the enemy and they support the putschists, and many who say the opposite. He also got his numberplates stolen there... Yet somehow he continued to travel around and made it to Crimea yesterday, meeting Ukrainian and Russian soldiers who didn't seem to seriously contemplate starting a war against each other, and looking hard to find anyone who hasn't voted for Russia. I linked to his youtube channel earlier. 3 hours ago, success is announced: I find a non-Tatar who voted for Ukraine!

But of course I haven't been there and of course it's "possible" that turnout was much lower and ballots were rigged. I just can't see a reason to believe it other than pleasing "Western" propaganda who knew it weeks in advance already.

And here are, fair and balanced, the Rap News:

 

[Garrison]

I think Putin really screwed this 'referendum' up. The numbers are totally unrealistic, they basically state that if no significant number of Tatars voted, all Russians and well over half of Ukrainians were in favor of annexation to Russia, and voted so in the referendum. The referendum is as legitimate as the recent 'election' of Kim Jong Un.

He could easily fake the results to something more believable, like 68% in favor, 30% in opposition, rest invalid or something like that. That could almost be believed, and he could still use it as a pretext to annex the peninsula 96%? Nope.

McHrozni

The man isn't big on subtle. It will be more than good enough for the Russian media and those in the west motivated by anti-American/anti-Obama sentiment will happily gloss over the obvious flaws.

 

[dudalb]

Sadly, true. At least the 'useful' idiots will be few and far between. Has Chomsky said anything on it yet?

On the other hand:

Some 80% of voters turning out at a polling station in Bakhchysaray were not on the electoral roll, the registrar told CNN. Those not on the roll have their passports and papers checked to establish identity. On the spot, election staff decide, with a show of hands, whether to allow those voters to participate.

A CNN team photographed one voter dropping two pieces of paper into the ballot box, raising questions over how effectively the vote is being monitored.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

These two - perhaps even either of these two - alone are enough to cast enough doubt on the vote to render it invalid in a country with democracy and rule of law.

McHrozni

And it so damn clumsy. The people who run elections in Chicago have to be laughing at this amateur effort at election fixing.

 

[jimbob]

Any more news on the reports that there had been 2.5-million ballot papers for 1.5-million voters?

 

[trustbutverify]

The man isn't big on subtle. It will be more than good enough for the Russian media and those in the west motivated by anti-American/anti-Obama sentiment will happily gloss over the obvious flaws.

If I had to guess, I'd say a majority of Crimeans probably favored Russian incorporation. I doubt it was anywhere near 95%, or whatever ridiculous number the Kremlin is currently waving around. Putin desperately needed a "win", and this charade provided the "landslide victory" his agenda required. Shenanigans have already been exposed; I think many more will follow.