Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

[CapelDodger]

Okay this is the latest quote used by deniers on Facebook

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfe...ger-than-the-period-of-actual-global-warming/

Any comments ?

It's the usual drivel. Notice that there's a prediction in the headline, that the RSS figures (the only ones they can point to now that UAH has gone rogue) will not rise above the 1998 outlier for another few years at least. That will fail, of course, even without an El Nino; with an El Nino it will fail drastically.

At which point deniers will be faced with a major problem. They've nailed themselves to a mythical Pause as proof that AGW doesn't exist, so what can they say when even their chosen temperature series shows warming? Will that, in its turn, not prove that AGW does exist, even by their own illogic? Lots of mockery opportunities in there (not that they're likely to come back here and be bullied about it; people are so mean here ).

 

[Trakar]

It's the usual drivel. Notice that there's a prediction in the headline, that the RSS figures (the only ones they can point to now that UAH has gone rogue) will not rise above the 1998 outlier for another few years at least. That will fail, of course, even without an El Nino; with an El Nino it will fail drastically.

At which point deniers will be faced with a major problem. They've nailed themselves to a mythical Pause as proof that AGW doesn't exist, so what can they say when even their chosen temperature series shows warming? Will that, in its turn, not prove that AGW does exist, even by their own illogic? Lots of mockery opportunities in there (not that they're likely to come back here and be bullied about it; people are so mean here ).

The nature of their arguments will always provide an out sufficient to allow self-rationalization, it isn't about being right, it is about being able to move on to the next argument.

Solar activity highest its been in 10 years! - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif

Afterall, it's already higher than it was during the last peak heat occurrence in 2005.

 

[CapelDodger]

Beyond the Pause I can see nothing but squirrels for the denier camp. Solar activity is peaking (unless something very odd is going on) so there's no escape there. They could resurrect "global warming on Mars" and such-like myths, I suppose. A rather boring prospect, but the weather will surely make up for that .

 

[CapelDodger]

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...sation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.

Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites."

In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)."

More up to date examples include 1790's France and the Romanov's Russian Empire. For the privileged nobility of those days read the privileged mega-rich of today. It'll all end in tears, mark my words. Aux armes, citoyens!.

The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing population growth:

"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion."

The places where this happens will prosper relative to those which put all their efforts into preventing inevitable change. The future will be theirs; for most of the others, no future at all.

Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.

They left out the financial crisis that we can expect by 2020.

Alarming? Perhaps. Boring? Definitely not.

 

[CapelDodger]

Food for thought :

Wall Street Investors Take Aim at Farmland
http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2014/03/land-grabs-not-just-africa-anymore

A recent report by the Oakland Institute documents a fledgling, little-studied trend: Corporations are starting to buy up US farmland, especially in areas dominated by industrial-scale agriculture, like Iowa and California's Central Valley. But the land-grabbing companies aren't agribusinesses like Monsanto and Cargill. Instead, they're financial firms: investment arms of insurance companies, banks, pension funds, and the like. In short, Wall Street spies gold in those fields of greens and grains.

Why are they plowing cash into such an inherently risky business with such seemingly low profit potential? For Wall Street, farmland represents a "reassuringly tangible commodity" with the potential for "solid, if not excellent, returns," the Oakland Institute notes—something clients are hungry for after being recently burned not long ago by credit-default swaps and securities backed by trashy mortgages.

This smacks of people cashing-out of the casino while they're ahead to me, but that could be motivated reasoning. There's a reason why land is called real property, after all, and with stock-markets bubbling up nicely right now it's time to take some profits.

Apocalypse Soon .

 

[macdoc]

Yeah some wag said the best return to be had was a wheat farm with a river on the property with an associated bakery near a small city......inland

There is a reason Paris legislates the wheat fields surrounding the city as "untouchable".
Strategic assets.

I actually think the Asian community will be the saviour of the small farmer as they move in and grow diverse but valuable but labour intensive crops on small plots. Certainly in Ontario they've revived some failed or failing family farms.
Some are adapting

Ontario farmers experiment with “world crops”
As the immigrant market grows, an increasing number of Canadian commercial farms experiment with locally grown ethnocultural crops.

more
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/09/23/ontario_farmers_experiment_with_world_crops.html

Cannot be automated easily and diversity is king. They've been doing sustainable village based agriculture in China for 5,000 years.

Just be cautious when the financial wonks start buying the sewage plants to fertilise their new dirty hands adventures

Of course they could just be doing it for their swimming pool enjoyment....not sure which smells worse.

 

[Jules Galen]

There is a reason Paris legislates the wheat fields surrounding the city as "untouchable".
Strategic assets.

But,,,there are some "Untouchable Reasons" why Paris wheat fields are so strategic. Have you truely thought of this?

 

[!Kaggen]

Food for thought :

Wall Street Investors Take Aim at Farmland
http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2014/03/land-grabs-not-just-africa-anymore



This smacks of people cashing-out of the casino while they're ahead to me, but that could be motivated reasoning. There's a reason why land is called real property, after all, and with stock-markets bubbling up nicely right now it's time to take some profits.

Apocalypse Soon .

I just had a meeting this week with an agronomist that works for such a fund in South Africa.
They buy farms and rent them out.
They have their own agronomist who then supervises the use of their assets.
They are concerned about the sustainability of the way their assets are farmed so now they want me to help there tenants use methods based on organic farming principles such as adding organic matter and microbial bioaugmentation of the soil.
These funds assets will become more valuable through investing in the soil compared to farms that don't.

They also raise most of their institutional money from black pension funds and are therefore helping land reform in South Africa. White farmers realize it's more economical and secure to sell up to these funds and lease the land. The government funded redistribution has been a complete failure with farmers not being paid market values and farms being exploited and/ or neglected. These funds work closely with farm management companies who offer there services in managing farms.Their management is so good farm worker owned farms without the internal management skills are outsourcing management to these companies. Once again private initiatives are taken the lead compared to government in social, environmental and economic development.

Interesting times for agriculture.

 

[macdoc]

Interesting times for agriculture.

Not to mention climate change and extreme weather....gonna stress marginal or poorly managed farms out of business and reward the well managed and forward looking.

Lots going on in urban farming as well as transport costs rise.

Still - too many farmers are victims of food processing conglomerates...and the right wing is busy dismantling marketing boards that have the heft to fight the corporate predators.

 

[macdoc]

Consequences

Paris restricts car use after pollution hits high
15 March 2014
Reduced speed limits are another tactic to try to tackle pollution
Continue reading the main story
Related Stories

Free Paris transport to reduce smog
Air pollution 'still harming health'
Milan bans cars to stop pollution
Alternative driving days are being introduced in the French capital, Paris, in an attempt to tackle dangerous levels of air pollution.

From Monday, drivers will only be able to use their vehicles every other day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26599010

 

[CapelDodger]

I just had a meeting this week with an agronomist that works for such a fund in South Africa.
They buy farms and rent them out.
They have their own agronomist who then supervises the use of their assets.
They are concerned about the sustainability of the way their assets are farmed so now they want me to help there tenants use methods based on organic farming principles such as adding organic matter and microbial bioaugmentation of the soil.

That must be very satisfying work. Sadly, I can't imagine Wall St (or City of London, as we Brits would put it) investment funds taking a similar approach.

These funds assets will become more valuable through investing in the soil compared to farms that don't.

True, but it takes time and effort, which does nothing for this month's targets and this year's bonus. The sums involved are also tiny compared to the potential profits from speculation and market manipulation.

They also raise most of their institutional money from black pension funds and are therefore helping land reform in South Africa.

This is exactly the sort of investment I'd want from a pension fund : low-risk steady returns. I have a sad story about a pension and life assurance company, almost two centuries old when I first got involved with them. Very staid and old-fashioned then, but an influx of whiz-kid City types broke it in three years. It is no more. Bereft of life, albeit with a splendid new head office, it was swallowed (or "rescued") by a larger more dynamic company in 1988. That company also joined the celestial choir invisible within a decade. This is modern capitalism, focused on the short term and leaving the future to sort itself out. Loot and move on.

The MotherJones article I quoted refers to US agricultural land "in areas dominated by industrial-scale agriculture, like Iowa and California's Central Valley", where investing companies can trade with similarly-sized corporations, not annoying individuals renting penny-ante parcels of land. The personal touch is expensive, and involves learning something about the assets being managed and traded - an uninviting prospect for people who are, in the main, not very bright (in my experience).

These funds work closely with farm management companies who offer there services in managing farms.Their management is so good farm worker owned farms without the internal management skills are outsourcing management to these companies. Once again private initiatives are taken the lead compared to government in social, environmental and economic development.

Great stuff, but completely alien to anyone with an MBA.

Interesting times for agriculture.

Interesting times in my garden, where I will return when I've finished my coffee. Glorious weather today . The winter's been so warm that everything is ahead apart from my apple and pear trees, which don't seem to have registered that winter has even started, so how can it be spring?

 

[greybeard]

Fears of faster rising global sea levels as 'stable' Greenland ice sheet starts to melt.

Global sea levels may rise faster than anticipated due to a rapid melting of the north-east corner of the Greenland ice sheet, according to scientists. This was widely considered to be cold and stable.
Satellite measurements have shown that this part of Greenland, which covers 16 per cent of the ice sheet, has now begun to melt after many years of stability – the reason why this area was left out of computer models predicting future global sea-level rise.

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Food for thought :

Wall Street Investors Take Aim at Farmland
http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2014/03/land-grabs-not-just-africa-anymore



This smacks of people cashing-out of the casino while they're ahead to me, but that could be motivated reasoning. There's a reason why land is called real property, after all, and with stock-markets bubbling up nicely right now it's time to take some profits.

Apocalypse Soon .

It's called "The final harvest". And yes it is potentially a huge problem. Not sure it is quite to the irreversible apocalypse stage yet, but it certainly is heading that direction, and government subsidies (as noted in the article) are exacerbating it, instead of helping.

 

[macdoc]

capel

This is modern capitalism, focused on the short term and leaving the future to sort itself out. Loot and move o

Yeah you warned me and this is not the spot for it directly but I want to point out this behaviour is has nothing to do with capitalism but is in fact predation unchecked by regulation.

It really does not matter if it's a gang of bullies extracting candy from kids or bankers screwing with the Libor rate - it's predation.

I'm a capitalist, available capital to run my business which employs people and provides services is critical and I'm happy to pay a reasonable amount for the use of that resource.
I'm not predatory.

There are thousands of non-predatory people and organizations with a capitalist economy.

What has broken is
a) any idea that it's self regulating - we saw the result of that in 2008
b) the banks and financial institutions are abusing the privileges granted them by fractional lending which is a charter granted by the state and needs reining in big time.

There are many ethical and green organizations providing capital ( for a return ) who are responsible corporate citizens.

There are WAAAAY too many predators unchecked who influence the governments by way of election funding and sometimes outright bribery.
This however is not restricted to private capital and corporations but applies to any predatory group exercising outsized or unfair advantage over a sector, other companies or individuals.

There are a few aggressive government prosecutors going after them as happened at the beginning of the 20th century when the likes of Exxon were busted up.

This weak regulation is both creating a have/have not society that is seriously dangerous but preventing exercise of sovereign power to regulate and protect the common weal.

So it has been falling to smaller jurisdictions to lead the fight as we see above with vehicle regulation and whole cities like Portland enacting stiff building codes.

Protection of the common weal has fallen out in favour of protection of the 1% and really a slide to fascism.

This does not bode well for dealing with climate as we see in both Australia and Canada and glaringly in the US where if it were not for Obama's executive power nothing would move forward.

Dealing with inequity, a failing democratice structure in some countries *( China's single party capitalism is mopping the floor with the west as they can make decisions, execute them AND do have the public weal in mind.
They curb predation with death sentences in some cases tho it's a tough battle given corruption at many levels.

Still they are building nukes, are setting stiff vehicle emission standards and intend to make good coin off green technology as they are doing with solar panels.

Predation is the problem facing the world in dealing with climate change and there are no easy answers.

Sweden is getting it done as is Norway and they DO know how to protect their citizens and help make them ALL wealthy. They've got a social system the envy of the world because they kept predators at bay.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/7...way-became-a-millionaire-last-week-here-s-how

here is a blistering comparison against Canada's mismangement.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2012/07/25/Norway-Oil-Wealth/

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/01/15/If-Every-Norwegians-a-Millionaire-Whys-Alberta-in-Hock/

Even where companies want a carbon tax which both Norway and Sweden have had in place since 1990, ideologues on the right get in the way.

Why Canada Oil-Sands Industry Wants CO2 Tax ... - Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/.../why-canada-oil-sands-industry-wants-co2-tax-h...‎
Feb 1, 2013 - The oil-sands industry, Canada's fastest growing CO2 polluter, says he's out of step. ... A carbon tax “is one of the ways to promote better performance of .... if possible--rather than at the well head or mine head or import point.

and

Why the oil sands industry wants the carbon tax that Stephen Harper hates

Jeremy van Loon and Andrew Mayeda, Bloomberg News | February 1, 2013 | Last Updated: Feb 1 12:30 PM ET

http://business.financialpost.com/2...s-industry-wants-the-carbon-tax-harper-hates/

In this case this predation by government on it's own people and the environment in concert.
One can hardly blame the oil companies for exploiting it.

That's the heart of the problem....regulation....not capitalism.

It took the courts to finally get SO2 abatement moving.

We need brave politicians with the common weal of citizens and the planet's environment as job one.....

We don't have them in enough places.... ;(

 

[Trakar]

...So it has been falling to smaller jurisdictions to lead the fight as we see above with vehicle regulation and whole cities like Portland enacting stiff building codes...

Is there any real benefit to stronger city-states in an increasingly climate disrupted future? Old/existing state lines and boundaries seem increasingly arbitrary and clumsy both economically, socially, and politically.

Protection of the common weal has fallen out in favour of protection of the 1% and really a slide to fascism.

If you consider the ultimate expression of fascism to be the integration of business and politics in a form of Corporatism, I'd have to say that I understand where you are coming from.

This does not bode well for dealing with climate as we see in both Australia and Canada and glaringly in the US where if it were not for Obama's executive power nothing would move forward.

Dealing with inequity, a failing democratice structure in some countries *( China's single party capitalism is mopping the floor with the west as they can make decisions, execute them AND do have the public weal in mind.
They curb predation with death sentences in some cases tho it's a tough battle given corruption at many levels.

Still they are building nukes, are setting stiff vehicle emission standards and intend to make good coin off green technology as they are doing with solar panels.

Makes all the Mandarin truisms and cursing in Firefly seem more presciently intuitive!

Predation is the problem facing the world in dealing with climate change and there are no easy answers.

Sweden is getting it done as is Norway and they DO know how to protect their citizens and help make them ALL wealthy. They've got a social system the envy of the world because they kept predators at bay...

I'm still rooting hard for us, but it can get depressing at times.

 

[macdoc]

Is there any real benefit to stronger city-states in an increasingly climate disrupted future? Old/existing state lines and boundaries seem increasingly arbitrary and clumsy both economically, socially, and politically.

I think smaller entities can do better than big diverse cumbersome ones.
Look at Hong Kong and Singapore, Norway, Denmark, the Swiss with their unique Canton government.

Some of the US states are moving ahead on their own, California for all it's problems still is leading the way on getting emissions down as like China they are choking on them and there is still a very left leaning "common weal" headspace there.

 

[CapelDodger]

... I want to point out this behaviour is has nothing to do with capitalism but is in fact predation unchecked by regulation.

Predatory capitalism is still capitalism, and in a sense performs a useful function when it culls the weak or sickly. The general problem with modern capitalism is short-termism, which has become the dominant form. It's almost impossible to operate outside it; if you don't conform the market abandons you and the predators move in to take the fittings and floorboards.

This the result after thirty years of the Reagan-Thatcher Revolution, aka the Chicago School Discontinuity. Just like some of us said would happen but there it is, water under the bridge.

There is another system developing, particularly in the renewables sphere, which is prepared to tie capital down in physical investments with a view to the long-term return. When financial capitalism hits the wall again with nobody willing to help them out, that alternative system will come to dominate. At which point sensible regulation will be back.

 

[GlennB]

This the result after thirty years of the Reagan-Thatcher Revolution, aka the Chicago School Discontinuity. Just like some of us said would happen but there it is, water under the bridge.

There is another system developing, particularly in the renewables sphere, which is prepared to tie capital down in physical investments with a view to the long-term return. When financial capitalism hits the wall again with nobody willing to help them out, that alternative system will come to dominate. At which point sensible regulation will be back.

I agree entirely with your sentiments, but wondering if you could enlarge on that bolded part?

 

[CapelDodger]

I agree entirely with your sentiments, but wondering if you could enlarge on that bolded part?

I mean a sub-system of capitalism, a network willing and able to mobilise capital for long-term projects such as windfarms. This is, from what I can gather, mostly happening off-Wall St, so to speak, which is no bad thing. Depending on those sources is like making Tony Soprano a sleeping partner in your business. It soon won't be your business, and probably won't be a business at all.

Just my take on things; I'm really not an expert. I see things and try to make sense of them, in the light of my experience, reading, and bone-deep cynicism.

 

[macdoc]

oh my!

Official prophecy of doom: Global warming will cause widespread conflict, displace millions of people and devastate the global economy

http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...and-devastate-the-global-economy-9198171.html