Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[trustbutverify]

Agreed on both counts.

 

[Puppycow]

It's funny how this all started though.

There was going to be a trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, right?

Russia (Putin) didn't want them to have a trade agreement, so he pressured Yanukovich to veto it.

Here's the article from the OP:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25173719

National strike

The protests started more than a week ago after President Yanukovych suspended preparations for signing an EU association agreement that would have opened borders to goods and set the stage for an easing of travel restrictions.

Mr Yanukovych said pressure from Moscow had led to his decision, arguing that Ukraine could not afford to sacrifice trade with Russia, which opposed the deal.

It's hard to see how stopping such a minor thing as a trade deal was worth everything that happened since. Putin had a friendly, compliant regime in place. Now that regime is gone, replaced by a hostile one in most of the country, and they are on the verge of war.

 

[dudalb]

And President Merkle's comments that Putin is living in another world is really scary.When dictators begin living in a fantasy world, bad things happen....and I think that Merkle, as Presdient of Germany, has got to know that, given Germany's history with dictators living in their own reality.

 

[angrysoba]

My guess is that reports of Putin's lack of sanity are exaggerated.

 

[L.Y.S.]

And President Merkle's comments that Putin is living in another world is really scary.When dictators begin living in a fantasy world, bad things happen....and I think that Merkle, as Presdient of Germany, has got to know that, given Germany's history with dictators living in their own reality.

Yeah, Merkle is the Chancellor of Germany, and no Putin is not insane, just hellbent on Russian restoration.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Seems that Americans are more keen to take decisive measures against the Russians than Western Europeans.

America has suspended military and economic ties with Russia. America is not one of Russia's top 5 trade partners, so it is doubtful that these sanctions will have a serious impact. If anything it will temporarily slow down the Russia economy, after which Russia's economy will pick back up.

Europe has merely condemned Russia and for now does not support economic sanctions being put on Russia. This is according to the article above.

It is very unlikely that the invasion of Crimea will result in western military intervention. If 'spontaneous' revolutions arise in eastern Ukraine, and the newly 'elected' governors 'invite' Russia into the eastern provinces, it is very unlikely that the west will intervene in that case either.

 

[spin0]

I think Europe should stop worrying and learn to love fracking.

It's happening. To the dismay of enviromentalists the EU decided not to regulate on fracking.

But if there will be a fracking boom like in the US it will be about ten years away as the business is still mostly in the exploration phase and very few test drillings have been made so far.

Recently the big development has been in the LNG terminals for imports from other sources such as Quatar. And storage capacity has seen significant growth to better accomodate disruptions.

 

[McHrozni]

My guess is that reports of Putin's lack of sanity are exaggerated.

What do you base that on, exactly? He dangerously damaged Russia's soft power in Europe and lost Ukraine for at least generation. This crisis will almost certainly result in Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO, putting them 300km from Moscow and encircling Russia's richest lands. He deafulted on a major international contract, essentially permitting Ukraine becoming a nuclear power as a result. He also likely damaged Russia's fragile economy quite severely.
And for what? A major tourist spot with a substantial resistive population. IF he wins in the conflict, that is. If not he doesn't gain anything, but the losses have been already incurred. If he looses he will also loose his throne by the end of the decade. Likely his freedom as well, quite possibly also his head.

So, um. Why do you think he is sane?

McHrozni

 

[angrysoba]

What do you base that on, exactly? He dangerously damaged Russia's soft power in Europe and lost Ukraine for at least generation. This crisis will almost certainly result in Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO, putting them 300km from Moscow and encircling Russia's richest lands. He deafulted on a major international contract, essentially permitting Ukraine becoming a nuclear power as a result. He also likely damaged Russia's fragile economy quite severely.
And for what? A major tourist spot with a substantial resistive population. IF he wins in the conflict, that is. If not he doesn't gain anything, but the losses have been already incurred. If he looses he will also loose his throne by the end of the decade. Likely his freedom as well, quite possibly also his head.

So, um. Why do you think he is sane?

McHrozni

I think that "mad dictator" is simply a lazy and silly slur. Generally I would think that most people in power are sane if only because you need to have your wits about you to stay where you are. Putin is someone who has managed to stay in power in a place where you have to be pretty sharp to get there in the first place.

His policies, rather than looking like the crazed lashing out of a madman look like fairly clever manoeuvrings. This is not to say that I support Putin, but to say it is silly and dangerous to write him off as a crazyman.

Rather, instead of asking me for evidence of his sanity, why don't you show some clinical or medical evidence for his insanity. And the opinion of Angela Merkel doesn't count as she is hardly a clinical psychologist.

ETA: And surely you are not seriously suggesting that Ukraine will now become a "nuclear power" now. I would assume that Putin is assuming the Budapest Memorandum is a dead letter now, and that Ukraine are not going to benefit from it having been breached.

 

[McHrozni]

I think that "mad dictator" is simply a lazy and silly slur. Generally I would think that most people in power are sane if only because you need to have your wits about you to stay where you are. Putin is someone who has managed to stay in power in a place where you have to be pretty sharp to get there in the first place.

His policies, rather than looking like the crazed lashing out of a madman look like fairly clever manoeuvrings. This is not to say that I support Putin, but to say it is silly and dangerous to write him off as a crazyman.

Rather, instead of asking me for evidence of his sanity, why don't you show some clinical or medical evidence for his insanity. And the opinion of Angela Merkel doesn't count as she is hardly a clinical psychologist.

Insane does not mean stupid. Quite the opposite, I think Putin is smart, but lives in a delusion where he is the Lenin reborn in the eyes of his people, that he would be revered, after his death his taxidermied body would be put next to Lenin, etc etc . You don't need to be stupid to believe something like that, but you can't be sane.

He maneovered Russia into this position for at least a decade. Now the time has come, and he risks so much for so little. Doubtless he thinks he'll win and Ukraine will kneel before his might, and worship him as a savior. It's not much different to how Soviet Union acted to it's WP allies, who quickly and readily joined EU and NATO when the Soviet threat was gone. It will be little different with Ukraine.

ETA: And surely you are not seriously suggesting that Ukraine will now become a "nuclear power" now. I would assume that Putin is assuming the Budapest Memorandum is a dead letter now, and that Ukraine are not going to benefit from it having been breached.

Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial soverignty in exchange to Ukraine joining NNPT as a non-nuclear state. Now it not only failed to live up to the promise, it is the violator of the treaty. If US and UK don't rush to it's aid, not one of the powers who gave Ukraine guarantees will have lived up to the promise. It's a desperate measure certainly, but Ukraine would do well to start mentioning NNPT in this regard.

To answer your question: no, I don't believe Ukraine will develop nuclear weapons as a response to the crisis. Threatning to do so should be enough to get Obama et.al. interested in doing something substanial to end the crisis.

McHrozni

 

[Childlike Empress]

Yeah, that's what worries me. Not losing face may be more important than not losing money.

Don't worry. Rest assured that nobody outside the Anglo propaganda bubble thinks that "Putin was humiliated". The picture is that the bear was poked, blinked a tiny little bit and the pokers are up the trees screaming bloody murder.

Pity though that real people have to suffer from the results of the outrageous plotting of dimwits like Mrs. Nuland and her gang.

 

[angrysoba]

Insane does not mean stupid. Quite the opposite, I think Putin is smart, but lives in a delusion where he is the Lenin reborn in the eyes of his people, that he would be revered, after his death his taxidermied body would be put next to Lenin, etc etc . You don't need to be stupid to believe something like that, but you can't be sane.

There's no point in making up such obvious BS.

He maneovered Russia into this position for at least a decade. Now the time has come, and he risks so much for so little. Doubtless he thinks he'll win and Ukraine will kneel before his might, and worship him as a savior. It's not much different to how Soviet Union acted to it's WP allies, who quickly and readily joined EU and NATO when the Soviet threat was gone. It will be little different with Ukraine.

I don't think he's trying to make Ukraine kneel and worship him. I think he's simply taking Crimea for himself, and will probably want to extort the rest of Ukraine into some trade agreements.

Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial soverignty in exchange to Ukraine joining NNPT as a non-nuclear state. Now it not only failed to live up to the promise, it is the violator of the treaty. If US and UK don't rush to it's aid, not one of the powers who gave Ukraine guarantees will have lived up to the promise. It's a desperate measure certainly, but Ukraine would do well to start mentioning NNPT in this regard.

Why? What good will it do them, do you imagine?

To answer your question: no, I don't believe Ukraine will develop nuclear weapons as a response to the crisis. Threatning to do so should be enough to get Obama et.al. interested in doing something substanial to end the crisis.

McHrozni

Exactly. You don't believe Ukraine will develop nuclear weapons and nobody thinks they will be capable of anything more than a dirty bomb or so. That very fact, that you would never take such a threat seriously, is the very reason that there's not much point in making the threat.

 

[McHrozni]

There's no point in making up such obvious BS.

He certainly is egocentric. He was also control of a major power for well over a decade now, turning a fledging democracy into a dictatorship. Not many dictators went any way other than what I described. It's a way to obtain legitemacy, possibly the only way to keep it for a prolonged period of time. Add in the overblown ego, and you have exactly what I described.

It may or may not be true, but it's realistic, not obvious BS.

I don't think he's trying to make Ukraine kneel and worship him. I think he's simply taking Crimea for himself, and will probably want to extort the rest of Ukraine into some trade agreements.

Much, much too small gains for what he already pawned away, I think. He already had Ukraine in his grip before this crisis started. Now with this Crimea thing he certainly won't be getting it back, not without a full-scale war, or at least an actual coup, followed by a clearly undemocratic regime.

Why? What good will it do them, do you imagine?

For one, US wants to convince Iran to give up it's nuclear ambitions. Security guarantees will certainly be a part of it. Do you want to go in negotiations with the monkey of what happened the last time you gave such guarantees? Especially if the "last time" was a few months ago? I certainly wouldn't.
If Iran builds nukes, you can be sure Saudis will want them too ... and so on. There's a reason why you want to uphold such treaties as far as you're able.

Exactly. You don't believe Ukraine will develop nuclear weapons and nobody thinks they will be capable of anything more than a dirty bomb or so. That very fact, that you would never take such a threat seriously, is the very reason that there's not much point in making the threat.

As I mentioned above, it's not Ukrainian nuclear arsenal that would be important, or even relevant.

McHrozni

 

[angrysoba]

He certainly is egocentric. He was also control of a major power for well over a decade now, turning a fledging democracy into a dictatorship. Not many dictators went any way other than what I described. It's a way to obtain legitemacy, possibly the only way to keep it for a prolonged period of time. Add in the overblown ego, and you have exactly what I described.

It may or may not be true, but it's realistic, not obvious BS.

I beg to differ. It sounds cartoonish, particularly the idea he wants to be stuffed and placed next to Lenin. Of course, it is obviously made up.

Much, much too small gains for what he already pawned away, I think. He already had Ukraine in his grip before this crisis started. Now with this Crimea thing he certainly won't be getting it back, not without a full-scale war, or at least an actual coup, followed by a clearly undemocratic regime.

I don't see how he had Ukraine "in his grip". And I certainly hope it doesn't come to war. The difficulty is going to be in getting Putin out of Crimea, and I really don't know how that will happen. I also think your earlier characterizing of how the UNSC works is false too, although I admit to not knowing exactly how the procedure will work there.

For one, US wants to convince Iran to give up it's nuclear ambitions. Security guarantees will certainly be a part of it. Do you want to go in negotiations with the monkey of what happened the last time you gave such guarantees? Especially if the "last time" was a few months ago? I certainly wouldn't.
If Iran builds nukes, you can be sure Saudis will want them too ... and so on. There's a reason why you want to uphold such treaties as far as you're able.

As I mentioned above, it's not Ukrainian nuclear arsenal that would be important, or even relevant.

McHrozni

Uhmmm... I think you said that "I don't believe Ukraine will develop nuclear weapons as a response to the crisis. Threatning to do so should be enough to get Obama et.al. interested in doing something substanial to end the crisis."

I disagree with that. I don't think Ukraine will make friends by threatening to develop nuclear weapons. And, as I have already said, and as you already agree, the threat cannot be taken seriously so it would be a silly thing to do. In fact, seeing as you invoke Iran, if Ukraine did make such threats wouldn't Obama have to give Ukraine a bit of a slap to stop Iran getting ideas of extorting the US with nuclear weapons?

 

[spin0]

Let's go with this:

It's funny how this all started though.

There was going to be a trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, right?
Russia (Putin) didn't want them to have a trade agreement, so he pressured Yanukovich to veto it.

Here's the article from the OP:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25173719
It's hard to see how stopping such a minor thing as a trade deal was worth everything that happened since. Putin had a friendly, compliant regime in place. Now that regime is gone, replaced by a hostile one in most of the country, and they are on the verge of war.

And this:

My guess is that reports of Putin's lack of sanity are exaggerated.

Just for the purposes of this what if:
Let's forget the ultranationalistic ******** Putin has been spouting, and also the empire building aspect for a sec (huge things to omit, I know, but bear with me) and also other aspects such as the fear of a new Maidan in Moscow and Putin losing power. And let's speculate with sane Putin:

What does Putin want? He wants to be in position where he can dictate terms to Ukraine regarding its western integration. He also wants something much more than bilateral - to be in a position where also the West has to accept his terms.

All his previous efforts backfired. All of them. Not even having an authoritarian lackey has worked. On its own volition Ukraine would not join Putins club of dictators in Customs Union, and with the Association Agreement Ukraine's path towards western integration would get started without Putin's terms in it. The whole project he had been running over a decade has crumbled (and probably his future Eurasian union plan).

From his POV Ukraine simply cannot start western integration without his terms included from the beginning. Because it would be even more difficult to get such terms inserted later on he wants it to happen even before a mere AA.

And now all he has left is military invasion. Assuming sanity he has done that knowing it will have serious economic and diplomatic impacts for him and Russia, and ruin the so far friendly and close relationship between Ukraine and Russia for a long time. A desperate act of last resort, a sign of weakness.

A sane Putin does not want to rip Ukraine's territorial integrity apart or annex Crimea.

It would become an economic disaster, and possibly also humanitarian. The Crimean peninsula is totally dependent on gas, electricity, food and most importantly water from mainland Ukraine. The most important economic activity is tourism. Good luck running a tourist resort without water, food, and electricity - never mind how to keep the 1.97 million inhabitants supplied. The peninsula would need very costly life support and would be a burden for a long time, with added political and ethnic instability.

A sane Putin would rather have Crimea remaining as autonomous part of Ukraine. But only with his terms. And having invaded and occupied it he is in a better position to dictate his terms.

His move is not yet completed but eventually his demands might look something like this:
(0. Crimea stays as autonomous part of Ukraine, but with added locally established ethnic Russian military bodies)

1. Russia's military bases remain in Crimea perhaps with new bases and additions such as the claimed bridge.

2. Ukraine agrees to stay militarily non-aligned and never to join NATO, perhaps with multi-party guarantee from the West.

3. Ukraine and the West agree never to deploy certain types of military systems on the Ukrainian territory (such as certain types of missiles, radars and anti-missile defences).

4. Ukrainian defence forces are only allowed certain types and numbers of armament, and some types will be banned/restricted.

...
n. ???

He wants Ukraine and the West to agree to them. For some terms a bilateral agreement with Ukraine will not be enough and he wants it multipartial. Then he would stop the military invasion and withdraw his occupying troops.

/assuming sane Putin

 

[Caustic Logic]

And President Merkle's comments that Putin is living in another world is really scary.When dictators begin living in a fantasy world, bad things happen....and I think that Merkle, as Presdient of Germany, has got to know that, given Germany's history with dictators living in their own reality.

lol on the circlethink

In the real world, fun picture from the new crowd in parliament
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Ukraine_Svoboda_Nazi_MPs.png

From this BBC Newsnight video, sorry if this is repeated:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY

 

[Ziggurat]

Don't worry. Rest assured that nobody outside the Anglo propaganda bubble thinks that "Putin was humiliated". The picture is that the bear was poked, blinked a tiny little bit and the pokers are up the trees screaming bloody murder.

Pity though that real people have to suffer from the results of the outrageous plotting of dimwits like Mrs. Nuland and her gang.

I see you've moved on from your Chavez apologetics to Putin apologetics. You're moving up in the world.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Instead of responding with emoticons, how about a proper reply?

It's usually worse when he does that.

 

[Caustic Logic]

His deputy Jarosch is the right sector skinhead guy I posted a video statement from a week or so ago, outlining his grand vision of "reconquista". Equally undeniable a Nazi. Those two led the armed gangs on Maidan, "protecting" the poor little hippie activists (who certainly have been there but unfortunately have no influence on what's going on) against the police.

Can you imagine how they got their new jobs? I'd say it's because their guys were physically present "protecting" the parliament while the "electing" stuff was going on.

That's extremely worrying and as was said a very good reason for army personal to not follow orders from people like that. Hence it seems that Crimea has an air force atm while Ukraine doesn't have a navy anymore.

If anybody wants to see beaten up parliamentarians or bus loads of counter-protesters brutalized or even traffic police forced to "identify themselves" towards armed thugs who want to check something in their documents to decide how to proceed, just ask and I'll go relocate the videos.

If you do dig these up again, it'd be great to have a longer list of overall Ukraine putsch videos at the ACLOS page. Just the snipers stuff was too narrow to start with.

The more I look around, I think out of laziness and eagerness to secure condemnation, many including me of course have been a bit quick to use the term "Nazi" or even really the idea. Similar ideas, yeah, but they contest it. They don't like the term, though they do like and Heil Hitler, they're more nationalist - one nation, one people, a clean nation. As the kid in the Newsnight video says, not like under Hitler, but a little like that. Mainly, they're Fascist, anti-Russian, especially anti-Soviet, anti-Communist. Consider the parliament coallition with the Nazi side also had an "economic development group" party, while Regions was allied with and co-criminalized (?) with the Communist Party. The C14 Celtic-Cross-brandishing group occupies the former Communist Party HQ, who were not given a new one in return. Their leader is worried about Jews, but not like that, mainly Russia and communists, and it goes without saying Yanukovych or Regions Party officials and other traitors.

A little nostalgia. Feb. 10, EU calls for a new order, when a new order would form 10-12 days later:

In a sharp rebuke to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, the European Union on Monday called for the formation of a new, inclusive government and constitutional reforms that would pave the way to “free and fair presidential elections.”

.

For a fun exercise in futility, see the growing acknowledgments that's not hat exists - news search for Ukraine + "inclusive government" - calls to get one. Like they used to have. That included these backstabbers of democracy.

 

[Ziggurat]

My guess is that reports of Putin's lack of sanity are exaggerated.

Accusations of insanity are often merely self-comforting ways of saying, "I don't understand why you're doing what you're doing". In this case, Putin isn't insane, Merkel just has an intellectual blind spot that prevents her from understanding him.