Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[spin0]

A quote from the article.

Levin also expressed concern that with elections slated for May 25, a future government could result in ultranationalists gaining power in Ukraine.

Any actual polls supporting that concern?

 

[spin0]

Significance? Feb. 21 or after and it might be more relevant.

Relevant for what, exactly?

Since December there has been numerous reports and interviews of the Jewish Ukrainians protesting with the Maidan, and also public statements by the leaders of the Jewish communities in Ukraine about how the perceived presence of neo-nazis has been misleadingly overstated by some, and that the Euromaidan protest is not a neo-nazi rally. The exaggerating seems to have happened for apparent propaganda purposes to try and discredit as neo-nazies the protesting opposition, which as it happens in reality has also included Jewish protesters including in the militant factions of Maidan self-defense units. In fact in Maidan even the religious services and seremonies have been provided by Orthodox priests, Jewish rabbies and Muslim imams.

It's pretty sad and ridiculous how some ITT have been bying into the exaggerated "neo-nazi" spin, and the sarcastic jokes by trustbutverify and cornsail were spot on. As per polls we know that Maidan has had a wide cross section of people from different walks of life, different ages, and different social groups - the middle class being one of the biggest. And as per polls we also know their demands have not included establishing a fascist or nazi dictatorship. To the contrary, they have been protesting against authoritarian regime.

And instead of playing the silly game of Spot the Nazi by cherry picking random pictures, one should take a look to actual polls conducted in the Maidan during the last three months before making claims about what the protesters actually think.

 

[geni]

Perhaps a bit of an extremist reaction to, and overly-visible rejection of the putsch? "Two can play this game," allowing some time to reflect, and a sane middle emerge, etc. Seems fair game if they're just taking over from the government and not killing people or anything. Why should only one group of Ukrainians get to overhtrow the government by force?

Its the degree of professionalism that is surprising although their media management needs work.

 

[McHrozni]

If Crimera wants to be ruled by a dictator in the making (Putin) what's the negative impact for Ukraine? Is the fear that the shirtless wonder won't stop there?

In the making? Putin has been a dictator for the past decade or so.

The negative impact for Ukraine is a loss of a substantial amount of strategically important terrirory. It might be worth it in the long run if they shed the toxic influence from Russia, but it's still a steep price to pay.

McHrozni

 

[spin0]

If Crimera wants to be ruled by a dictator in the making (Putin) what's the negative impact for Ukraine? Is the fear that the shirtless wonder won't stop there?

Well, one of the complications is that Ukraine's territorial integrity has special assurances. When Ukraine became independend it had a considerable amount of nuclear weapons on its territory - the third largest arsenal in the world. In exchange of handing the nukes over for dismantling Ukraine was given assurances of security and territorial integrity by Russia, US, and UK.

Before voting on accession, Ukraine demanded from Russia, the USA, France and the United Kingdom a written statement that these powers undertook to extend the security guarantees to Ukraine. Instead security assurances to Ukraine (Ukraine published the documents as guarantees given to Ukraine[5]) were given on 5 December 1994 at a formal ceremony in Budapest (known as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances[6]), may be summarized as follows: Russia, the UK and the USA undertake to respect Ukraine's borders in accordance with the principles of the 1975 CSCE Final Act, to abstain from the use or threat of force against Ukraine, to support Ukraine where an attempt is made to place pressure on it by economic coercion, and to bring any incident of aggression by a nuclear power before the UN Security Council.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
Here's the full text of the Budapest Memorandum: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

 

[spin0]

The question still remains; does eastern Ukraine want to join the EU?

No, that is not the question. As I already weeks ago pointed out to you in this thread you seem to be conflating an Association Agreement with a Membership Agreement.

What has been negotiated with Ukraine and still being offered is an Association Agreement. Not EU membership.

Ukraine has not applied for EU membership. Ukraine is not a candidate for EU membership. Ukraine is not joining the EU here.

Your question is not relevant at present. It might become relevant in the future if Ukraine chooses to apply for EU membership, and gets accepted as a candidate country, and membership negotitations are successfully concluded, and Ukraine has a refendum to make the decision whether to join the EU or not. Even under the most optimistic scenario we're looking at minimum 15-20 years in to future there.

AND MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE GOING BELLY UP! Are you seriously going to tell me that Europe can handle more poor nations buried in debt? 35 Billion USD is only the surface amount that they will need to STAY AFLOAT! They will need additional bailouts once Ukrainian businesses virtually collapse due to being poorly equipped to handle Eurozone regulations. So an ADDITIONAL bailout would be required to keep the collapsing Ukrainian economy afloat. You seem to underestimate the baggage of Ukrainian debt.

I can read the words and sentences, but the whole paragraph remains incomprehensible. It seems your insight there is lacking the most basic facts regarding the economy stuff you're discussing. There's nothing factually correct there. Just for one example Ukraine is certainly not about to join the Eurozone!

 

[spin0]

Yes, for a sufficiently variable value of free, I guess.

Indeed. The world's enduring dictators: Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan

 

[trustbutverify]

I can read the words and sentences, but the whole paragraph remains incomprehensible. It seems your insight there is lacking the most basic facts regarding the economy stuff you're discussing. There's nothing factually correct there. Just for one example Ukraine is certainly not about to join the Eurozone!

What about the all-cap sentences? That's gotta count for something.

 

[dudalb]

I think it is pretty apparent that somebody is convinced that in order to Prevent Nuclear War, Russia should be allowed to do what it damn well wants in Eastern Europe, and is trying to find some kind of moral justification for this so it does not look like selling the people of Eastern Europe down the river,,,and is failing badly.

 

[dudalb]

Indeed. The world's enduring dictators: Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan

What is really amusing is how Nazarbayev got into such a outraged huff over "Borat". But then dictators are not known for their senses of humor.

 

[Klimax]

Where was it determined, and by what method, just just how significant they have been? You can presume that all you want, as most people are. They decide with no real study or consideration that the percentage of Nazis and related thugs is exactly "not enough to matter or spoil my sticking it to Putin moment." Odd that your study says the same when earlier you acknowledged we don't know the proportion, division of labor, or balance of debt between the different camps here.

It was looking to me like a mob of a few thousand of them pushed their way into control of the capitol. Worse, they didn't just fade away and let themselves be invisible and let the protesters take credit, as I hoped. They try for the latter, but remain in force, in Kiev and elsewhere, and have reportedly done the following so far:

1. Threatening Regions party officials to resign or else
2. Shooting (non-fatally) a Yanukovych official trying to return to Kviv to 'turn himself in,' reconcile, start talk, whatever they termed it. They shot him.
3. Tearing down any symbol of Russia and the USSR they find, and specifically placing Nazi and white power symbols over them
4. Burning the Communist party HQ
5. Firebombing at least one Sybnagogue
6. Arresting a Jewish MP framed with sniper rifle in the trunk (this one I'm doubting, but someone was apparently arrested, a car related, and poosibly a version of allegation #2 - need translation)
7. Making Jews afraid to go in the street or maybe stay in the country (no murders yet I've heard about)
8. Implicitly, just by being them, threatening to push this agenda into the future and across Ukraine and beyond, with the glowing confidence of God's chosen soldiers.

At least some of this seems to be true. How many days has it been since the 36-hour blitzkrieg of death that coincided with this mob's first arrival? That's one hell of a week or less, just on the Nazi front alone and ignoring all the other changes, some of which like freedom finally are awesome. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for a free vote that finally excludes Yanukovych as a criminal. That guy is shady, how he just keeps winning elections no matter how many time we help overthrow him. Kinda like Chavez.

1.Some acknowledgement, that it was quite bit definitive, although it was in reply to another definitive statement. 1-1=0 (But fair is fair as you noted)

For your list, any interesting links? I don't think there were any previously covering some of points you raised. (Not that some of them would surprise me)

BTW: Did you notice that article I linked about unofficial "Ukraine hero"?

I think it is pretty apparent that somebody is convinced that in order to Prevent Nuclear War, Russia should be allowed to do what it damn well wants in Eastern Europe, and is trying to find some kind of moral justification for this so it does not look like selling the people of Eastern Europe down the river,,,and is failing badly.

Sadly, some people never learn from history. On the other hand some of us did and there is delegation by Visegrad Four scheduled to get to Ukraine.

 

[spin0]

Not sure if his estimate is correct, but those guys stole a lot: Last government robbed Ukraine of about $70 bln - Yatseniuk

"About $70 billion has been withdrawn from Ukraine's financial system to offshore accounts over the last three years. Now it's clear that they withdrew the funds that were raised as loans under state guarantees and stolen by representatives of the previous government,"

May explain where Yanukovich got his personal Disneyland...

 

[spin0]

This just in: Ukraine ready to sign association agreement during March EU summit

The diplomat also stressed that previous EU assurances stressing the door was open for Ukraine to sign the AA when Kyiv was ready to do so had a simple answer: Ukraine is now ready, he said. Among the previous pre-conditions was the liberation of Yulia Tymoshenko from jail, which materialised last Saturday, as well as commitment to reform the judiciary, which is one of the biggest priorities for the new government.

Yelisieiev said that the best moment to sign the AA would be the spring EU summit on 20-21 March. According to the Ukrainian constitution, the AA could be signed either by the president, by the prime minister, or by a mandated minister, he explained.

“That’s why I think that any formulation like let’s wait until the 25 May elections would be unfounded,” the diplomat said.

Asked if there was a technical obstacle for Brussels to sign the agreement with the present caretaker government, Commission spokesperson Olivier Bailly said that the new government was not yet sworn in, and the EU would “look at the options” regarding the AA once this had happened.

It is unclear whether some of the larger EU countries like Germany favour the speedy signing of the AA. They may fear that such a move would further antagonise Russia.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Relevant for what, exactly?

For the situation after the events of Feb. 20. Simple Google news search for Ukraine Jews is a good starting point no one's apparently tried (same for Klimax - those stories are all on here, and I already linked to the story on the shot aide - chief of staff)

And instead of playing the silly game of Spot the Nazi by cherry picking random pictures, one should take a look to actual polls conducted in the Maidan during the last three months before making claims about what the protesters actually think.

The polls make clear that there could never be a group of Nazis that comes in and causes violence? How did the Nazis agree to this poll? Was there a poll of Svoboda and Right Sector militants, and did they answer honestly for the public? Why are images of the force responsible for actually taking over the capitol "random"? Why is it "silly" to spot their 1 visible white power symbol and notice they're trying to show none and conceal their beliefs for the cameras?

 

[L.Y.S.]

The only region with ethnic Russian majority is Crimea in the South, where in 2001 about 58% of population was ethnically Russian, about 24% Ukrainian, and about 12% Tatar whose share has been rising significantly since then and estimated as about 20%.

For centuries Crimea was inhabited by Tatars and they were the biggest ethnic group but after the ethnic cleansing and Russian colonization by the Soviet Union there were none left. After the fall of the Soviet Union many Tatars have been moving back to their home region. The history of the ethnic makeup:
[qimg]http://i.imgur.com/HOCBEHo.png[/qimg]
(table source)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine#Demographics

There are enough Russians in eastern Ukraine to cause genuine concern. There are roughly 8.5 million Russians in Ukraine. They make up about 37% of East Ukraine's population. I don't exactly know the point of this exercise, but there is a large enough Russia population in Ukraine to have to them in consideration.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Gotta disagree. There were militants, again apparently Nazi ones, moving up the street to take over or get to government buildings. See the map at ACLOS. Moving SE down the red street is where militants were shot. Marked - minister's building. Behind it, where the parliament met. South, presidential admin, SE, Regions party office, which was torched and an IT worker rep. beaten to death. Somehow once these guys got in charge of that area, everything changed and parliament was free to dismiss people, vote new stuff in, etc. That was the revolution.

To prevent that physical takeover, they would have almost had to call in the army, after the police were rolled over, being left too weak to stop that assault. There was just that threat, but the operation was simply too quick.

Protest laws were loose enough these guys were able to bus themselves in and do this. I don't know about other effects of the laws, but I hear there was a large protest and all, with the main problem being snipers picking them off. And there too I'd point out we can't really know who was doing it, but do note it coincided with this confident barrel roll through a vulnerable capitol, and laid down the alleged justification (killing his own people!) at literally the same time, not one before the other.

But again, things did not become fierce until Yanukovych poured gasoline onto the fire and tried to pass oppressive anti-protest legislation.

 

[Puppycow]

New government says Yanukovych and his cronies stole $70 billion from the country's treasury.

Ukraine faces economic collapse, new PM says

Ukraine, now the epicentre of a tug-of-war between Russia and western powers, is teetering on economic ruin after the former president siphoned close to $70 billion from the country, the new prime minister says.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told the Ukrainian parliament on Thursday that fugitive former president Viktor Yanukovych’s regime moved $70 billion out of Ukraine over the span of three years and that the nation’s treasury was almost empty — with only $40,000 in the bank and $15 billion in foreign reserves, reported the Kyiv Post.

“The state treasury has been robbed and is empty,” Yatsenyuk said on Thursday.

Maybe. Plausible. OTOH, he has reasons to delegitimize the previous regime and thereby legitimize his own. I'm in no position to confirm or deny the facts. Heck, I can't even be sure the new guys didn't steal some of it themselves and blamed it on the previous ones.

 

[McHrozni]

Well, one of the complications is that Ukraine's territorial integrity has special assurances. When Ukraine became independend it had a considerable amount of nuclear weapons on its territory - the third largest arsenal in the world. In exchange of handing the nukes over for dismantling Ukraine was given assurances of security and territorial integrity by Russia, US, and UK.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
Here's the full text of the Budapest Memorandum: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Russia is already in violation of article #3.

McHrozni

 

[angrysoba]

The only region with ethnic Russian majority is Crimea in the South, where in 2001 about 58% of population was ethnically Russian, about 24% Ukrainian, and about 12% Tatar whose share has been rising significantly since then and estimated as about 20%.

For centuries Crimea was inhabited by Tatars and they were the biggest ethnic group but after the ethnic cleansing and Russian colonization by the Soviet Union there were none left. After the fall of the Soviet Union many Tatars have been moving back to their home region. The history of the ethnic makeup:
[qimg]http://i.imgur.com/HOCBEHo.png[/qimg]
(table source)

Relevant for what, exactly?

Since December there has been numerous reports and interviews of the Jewish Ukrainians protesting with the Maidan, and also public statements by the leaders of the Jewish communities in Ukraine about how the perceived presence of neo-nazis has been misleadingly overstated by some, and that the Euromaidan protest is not a neo-nazi rally. The exaggerating seems to have happened for apparent propaganda purposes to try and discredit as neo-nazies the protesting opposition, which as it happens in reality has also included Jewish protesters including in the militant factions of Maidan self-defense units. In fact in Maidan even the religious services and seremonies have been provided by Orthodox priests, Jewish rabbies and Muslim imams.

It's pretty sad and ridiculous how some ITT have been bying into the exaggerated "neo-nazi" spin, and the sarcastic jokes by trustbutverify and cornsail were spot on. As per polls we know that Maidan has had a wide cross section of people from different walks of life, different ages, and different social groups - the middle class being one of the biggest. And as per polls we also know their demands have not included establishing a fascist or nazi dictatorship. To the contrary, they have been protesting against authoritarian regime.

And instead of playing the silly game of Spot the Nazi by cherry picking random pictures, one should take a look to actual polls conducted in the Maidan during the last three months before making claims about what the protesters actually think.

Well, one of the complications is that Ukraine's territorial integrity has special assurances. When Ukraine became independend it had a considerable amount of nuclear weapons on its territory - the third largest arsenal in the world. In exchange of handing the nukes over for dismantling Ukraine was given assurances of security and territorial integrity by Russia, US, and UK.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
Here's the full text of the Budapest Memorandum: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

No, that is not the question. As I already weeks ago pointed out to you in this thread you seem to be conflating an Association Agreement with a Membership Agreement.

What has been negotiated with Ukraine and still being offered is an Association Agreement. Not EU membership.

Ukraine has not applied for EU membership. Ukraine is not a candidate for EU membership. Ukraine is not joining the EU here.

Your question is not relevant at present. It might become relevant in the future if Ukraine chooses to apply for EU membership, and gets accepted as a candidate country, and membership negotitations are successfully concluded, and Ukraine has a refendum to make the decision whether to join the EU or not. Even under the most optimistic scenario we're looking at minimum 15-20 years in to future there.

I can read the words and sentences, but the whole paragraph remains incomprehensible. It seems your insight there is lacking the most basic facts regarding the economy stuff you're discussing. There's nothing factually correct there. Just for one example Ukraine is certainly not about to join the Eurozone!

Thanks for these really informative posts. I must admit that I am not exactly sure what is going on and I appreciate seeing some facts rather than wild theorizing being posted here.

 

[L.Y.S.]

Thanks for these really informative posts. I must admit that I am not exactly sure what is going on and I appreciate seeing some facts rather than wild theorizing being posted here.

Spin0's first quote neglects that the eastern Ukraine is made up of mostly Russian speakers. Even though many are Ukrainian and many speak Ukrainian, throughout most of eastern Ukraine, they speak Russian as their first language. Just an fyi.