Impact of California drought?

[rwguinn]

On your point 4. It takes years, quite often, for surface water to reach the aquifer. Prolonged and severe drought depletes the aquifers. 4 inches of rain all at once is mostly going to run off (especially after the fires) and do dawn little to ease the effects of the drought.

 

[ThunderChunky]

It's an obvious fallacy. Akin to the "it's snowing so global warming must be over" and "we have a black president so racism must be over" line of arguments.

 

[Dr. Imago]

Today. Four inches of rain in parts of SoCal.

I'm not arguing that the drought is over. Or that this is even a good thing.

The point is the cyclical nature of drought/rain cycles in the region. One that appears to be repeatedly missed by some of this crowd predicting doom and gloom, an observation not born of anything tangible or predictive except pure speculation.

~Dr. Imago

 

[I Ratant]

They have been remarkably accurate, given the constraints scientist have to work with. The drought has included the first year on record, which is consistent with predictions.

.
The weather men here on the tv have been getting very very good at predicting what's gonna occur.
The current storm sequence has two events, last night, and tomorrow.
The 5 storms we had last night totaled about a 1/4".. with much more promised on Friday.
3 years ago the rain was so bad all the railroad crossing gates were down across the traffic lanes here in Palmdale. Long lines waiting for -someone- to fix the problem.
I took the opportunity to drive down the -wrong side- of the road, where the oncoming traffic was held up by the gate... and zigged around the gates at the tracks. The water was coming up over the hood of my car!

 

[Dr. Keith]

I was going to mention the forecast for the next few days, but someone beat me to it.

It's an obvious fallacy. Akin to the "it's snowing so global warming must be over" and "we have a black president so racism must be over" line of arguments.

Yes and no.

Yes, it is irrelevant to the aquifers and will likely cause more damage than good.

But, no in that it does address one of your prior points:

Well, this last year was supposedly the driest on record, if conditions remain the same through october it will be the driest in the last 500 years.

Conditions clearly aren't remaining the same. In fact, they rarely do. If this weeks rains are the only rain between now and not much will improve. But I'll take even odds that this year will not be the driest in the last 500 years in the LA basin.

 

[ThunderChunky]

I was going to mention the forecast for the next few days, but someone beat me to it.



Yes and no.

Yes, it is irrelevant to the aquifers and will likely cause more damage than good.

But, no in that it does address one of your prior points:



Conditions clearly aren't remaining the same. In fact, they rarely do. If this weeks rains are the only rain between now and not much will improve. But I'll take even odds that this year will not be the driest in the last 500 years in the LA basin.

You misread my point, which was that this drought was "exceptional." And while these storms are providing a lot of rain fall, they are only predicted to provide 50% of the 2013 levels. So if this was the only rain, it would still be drier than last year.

 

[a_unique_person]

Today. Four inches of rain in parts of SoCal.

I'm not arguing that the drought is over. Or that this is even a good thing.

The point is the cyclical nature of drought/rain cycles in the region. One that appears to be repeatedly missed by some of this crowd predicting doom and gloom, an observation not born of anything tangible or predictive except pure speculation.

~Dr. Imago

Referring to science is hardly pure speculation. If I have a medical concern, I go to the doctors first, if it is climate, I go to the scientists that study climate.

 

[zooterkin]

Today. Four inches of rain in parts of SoCal.

I'm not arguing that the drought is over. Or that this is even a good thing.

The point is the cyclical nature of drought/rain cycles in the region. One that appears to be repeatedly missed by some of this crowd predicting doom and gloom, an observation not born of anything tangible or predictive except pure speculation.

~Dr. Imago

Well, the situation doesn't seem to be any better now, according to this video.