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Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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macdoc said:
Not usually one for doomsday articles but this pair are concerning and well researched....long reads..kinda dire

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-u-s-exports-global-warming-20140203
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I remember when I originally read the first one I thought it a bit conservative!

The second, I hadn't seen before,...didn't Steppenwolf have a song like that...
((http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qje0UuM8-OU - warning to the sensitive, this song uses some profane language in the discussion of adult social behaviors that I hesitate to call "mature."))
 
Fortunately the oceans are buying us "some" time against that rather dire prognostication..

Global warming 'pause' due to unusual trade winds in Pacific ocean, study finds
Study shows sharply accelerating trade winds have buried surface heat underwater, reducing heat flowing into atmosphere

theguardian.com, Monday 10 February 2014 05.00 AEST
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http://www.theguardian.com/environm...warming-pause-trade-winds-pacific-ocean-study

snip

Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, and leader of the research, said that while the solar minimum and aerosol particles have contributed to the slowdown, strong trade winds are the significant factor.
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good article with many implications ...maybe we should bring back the age of sail :D
 
Elf Grinder 3000 said:
Only 13% of scientist agree with global warming

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/02/debunking_the_97_consensus_on_global_warming.html
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Elf Grinder 3000:
The quote actually is: "Only 1.2% or 13 scientists out of 1,117 agreed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) view that human activity is the main cause of global warming since 1950.".
(my emphasis added).

This has nothing to do with the various surveys of the scientific literature where ~97% of climate scientists have authored papers that state that global warming is happening and we are causing it. Is there a scientific consensus on global warming?
Surveys of the peer-reviewed scientific literature and the opinions of experts consistently show a 97–98% consensus that humans are causing global warming.
...
We took a conservative approach in our ratings. For example, a study which takes it for granted that global warming will continue for the foreseeable future could easily be put into the implicit endorsement category; there is no reason to expect global warming to continue indefinitely unless humans are causing it. However, unless an abstract included (either implicit or explicit) language about the cause of the warming, we categorized it as 'no position'.
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The "Friends of Science" report (not a paper!) has the idea that papers that state no position on global warning are somehow strange. They keep on mentioning this trivial fact. See above for how that "broadest possible ‘consensus’ definition" assertion is just wrong for the Cook et al paper.
The report almost lies about Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, 2009. This was a survey of Earth scientists which is not mentioned in the blog. It was not a survey that got 3,146 responses from climate scientists. Of those responses, 76 out of 79 climatologists supported global warming and 75 out of 77 supported AGW. That is ~97% of climate scientists supporting AGW (really needs a Duh! for a failure in basic math).
 
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macdoc said:
Fortunately the oceans are buying us "some" time against that rather dire prognostication..
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Which has done nothing to promote a sense of urgency, sadly. If the PDO shift had been from negative to positive around 2000 then some momentum might have been built up. When it does shift from current negative to positive things are going to happen in a bit of a rush from quite an advanced start. In wrming terms, anyway. In policy terms there'll be a lot of panicky reaction from a rather retarded start, and I doubt it'll be pretty to watch.

The PDO is said to have a period of 15-30 years between shifts, so if that theory holds it could happen any time now.
 
Interesting times all over.

Historic flooding in Britain.
Historic ice storms Atlanta and surrounds
California is shriveling to a crisp.
S Australia is cooking and burning.
An El Nino may be in the offing ( wince )

and the Winter Olympics are running out of snow.... :boggled:

Can we get back to the mostly boring Holocene. ;)
 
Yikes - now we have categories for ice storms....and this one is really bad...

Today’s the Day Atlanta Could Lose a Quarter of Its Trees

By Eric Holthaus
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...th_facing_crippling_category_5_ice_storm.html

and Britain is just getting hammered...

Wind over 100mph in UK storm 'crisis'

Winds gusting over 100mph are lashing parts of the UK in what the assistant chief of the defence staff describes an "almost unparalleled natural crisis"
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26153889

I guess when they said "more extreme weather"....they meant it. :boggled:
 
It's gusting up something horrible again right now. A night for hunkering down by the fireside.

Flooding in the UK is getting blanket coverage and serious political presence, especially now it's hit the Thames valley. The Severn and Wye are now on top alert so I guess Tewkesbury's screwed again. And England is cut off from Cornwall :).

The phrase "climate change" is creeping back onto the BBC, and now Lawson has brought it centre-stage by denying it's got anything to do with it. A bad tactic, to my mind, associating flooding and climate change in people's minds. Far better to keep quiet or just say something sarcastic about windmills, but deniers are not the brightest and the best, let's face it. An inbred lot over here; Lawson, for instance, is Monckton's brother-in-law.

Boring it isn't.
 
macdoc said:
Interesting times all over.

Historic flooding in Britain.
Historic ice storms Atlanta and surrounds
California is shriveling to a crisp.
S Australia is cooking and burning.
An El Nino may be in the offing ( wince )

and the Winter Olympics are running out of snow.... :boggled:

Can we get back to the mostly boring Holocene. ;)
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Actually, California and most of the west coast have been inundated over the last couple of weeks with more headed this way in a few days, nobody is complaining so-far. It'll take another couple of months like this for the reservoirs to get back anywhere near what they should be. And we aren't getting a good snowpack build up (too warm) so most of this will run off instead of building up a reservoir of frozen mountaintop water to help support us through the summer.
 
CapelDodger said:
It's gusting up something horrible again right now. A night for hunkering down by the fireside.

Flooding in the UK is getting blanket coverage and serious political presence, especially now it's hit the Thames valley. The Severn and Wye are now on top alert so I guess Tewkesbury's screwed again. And England is cut off from Cornwall :).

The phrase "climate change" is creeping back onto the BBC, and now Lawson has brought it centre-stage by denying it's got anything to do with it. A bad tactic, to my mind, associating flooding and climate change in people's minds. Far better to keep quiet or just say something sarcastic about windmills, but deniers are not the brightest and the best, let's face it. An inbred lot over here; Lawson, for instance, is Monckton's brother-in-law.

Boring it isn't.
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I think many people here in the UK are realising that we are starting to see what global warming really means. Of course no one event proves AGW but the current extreme weather has been going on for weeks now. Not only that but since 2000 extreme flooding events are now commonplace. We are now getting exactly the type of weather that scientists predicted.
Articles like this wont have pleased Lawson much either. As time goes by people like him are going to look more and more stupid.
 
Hydrology aspects seem to be showing up soonest and fiercest as AGW induced change outside the Arctic - then some very erratic weather and extended heat waves.

The Arctic is another pace of change entirely and seems to be intruding on the mid-latitudes now by way of the jet stream.

Drought is still not a clear link.
 
Trakar said:
Actually, California and most of the west coast have been inundated over the last couple of weeks ...
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Inundated is a huge overstatement.

I live in Humboldt County, in the northwest corner of California, and we've had a couple of fronts drop some rain. But it's certainly not enough to make up for the months of dry weather that have preceded it.
 
greybeard said:
Articles like this wont have pleased Lawson much either. As time goes by people like him are going to look more and more stupid.
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Their scripted line for the denier clique is currently "Climate has always changed", with the implication that these events are all perfectly normal, nothing to see here, move along. They're too insulated from the normal population to realise how fantastical that sounds, and now in their Tory heartlands as well.

Cameron isn't one of the clique (Osborne is, of course) but he's flailing around trying not to upset them, apparently unaware that they despise him anyway. Understandably; he was never up to the job. He's going to regret saying those magic words "Money is no object", however carefully it was hedged.

Next storm comes on Friday and it could be really fearsome. This is fast becoming a national crisis.
 
some pause :rolleyes:

The cryosphere – the Earth's icey areas – obviously don't think much of the notion that global warming might have stopped.

A study last year in the journal Science looked at glaciers in all regions of the world. The study found that the world's glaciers were melting at a rate of 259 billion tonnes a year between 2003 and 2009.

What about the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, which together hold about 99 per cent of the world's fresh water?

Between 1992 and 2001, ice was melting from the two main ice sheets at a rate of about 64 billion tonnes a year, according to the latest IPCC assessment of the science.

From 2002 to 2011, the ice sheets were melting at a rate of about 362 billion tonnes a year – an almost six-fold increase. What was that about a pause in global warming?
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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... MP=soc_567
 
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citizenzen said:
Inundated is a huge overstatement.

I live in Humboldt County, in the northwest corner of California, and we've had a couple of fronts drop some rain. But it's certainly not enough to make up for the months of dry weather that have preceded it.
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The danger of quote-mining is that even the best intentioned person can make a contextually complete and accurate statement of fact, sound like an egregious exaggeration.

The statement I made, was: "Actually, California and most of the west coast have been inundated over the last couple of weeks with more headed this way in a few days, nobody is complaining so-far. It'll take another couple of months like this for the reservoirs to get back anywhere near what they should be. And we aren't getting a good snowpack build up (too warm) so most of this will run off instead of building up a reservoir of frozen mountaintop water to help support us through the summer.

Note the bolded parts of both my statement and your response. Did you only read the part of my statement that you quoted? Or is there some other major distinction you see between the meaning of the two bolded sections? I am interested in understanding why people do this in casual conversation. I am usually only aware of this in disingenuous argumentation over issues that people are emotionally and intellectually connected to, but I am noticing it more and more even in casual exchanges; I find it a curious method of discussion.
 
Bend over - kiss ass goodbye

:mad:

:boggled:

Fire in the hole: After fracking comes coal
13 February 2014 by Fred Pearce

Setting fire to coal underground could answer our energy prayers, or start an environmental disaster on a bigger scale than ever before

IF YOU thought shale gas was a nightmare, you ain't seen nothing yet. A subterranean world of previously ignored reserves is about to be opened up. These are the vast coal deposits that have proved unreachable by conventional mining, along with gas deposits around them. To the horror of anyone concerned about climate change, modern miners want to set fire to these deep coal seams and capture the gases this creates for industry and power generation. Some say this will provide energy security for generations to come. Others warn that it is a whole new way to fry the planet.
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more

http://www.newscientist.com/article...e-after-fracking-comes-coal.html#.Uv2kz3njP3w

Long, dire. :boxedin:
 
And you should just believe anything you read or hear about climate change, like how unusually warm Sochi is.

Don't check and find that the climate there is subtropical, and that for February the high temperature can be 84 °F, and the low range is 23 to 55 °F

Or go check the weather and find that every February has had warm temperatures, going back for a long long time. Or even check Wikipedia.

It is one of the very few places in Russia with a subtropical climate, with warm to hot summers and mild winters
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sochi

No, don't question the warming.
 
r-j said:
Don't check and find that the climate there is subtropical, and that for February the high temperature can be 84 °F, and the low range is 23 to 55 °F
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Don't check the elevation of Roza Khutor ski resort (which is the Olympic alpine site). That must be the mistake the IOC made when they selected Sochifor the Winter Olympics, let alone all those investors in skiing facilities. Fools, all of them. Don't they know what "sub-tropical" means?

Or go check the weather and find that every February has had warm temperatures, going back for a long long time.
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Everything was colder under the Communists, of course.
 
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