Syria and UN Security Council Decision

[The Big Dog]

The Syrian government claims that the newly released torture photos are fake except for those that show photos of "foreign terrorists," and "civilians and military personnel who were killed as a result of torture by armed terrorist groups because they were accused of being pro-state."

That is easily one of the most ridiculous things I have ever seen.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Here's a translation of Moallem's outburst of righteous indignation.

[...] Ladies and Gentlemen, everything you have heard would not have been possible, had our border sharing countries been good neighbours during these challenging years. Unfortunately they were far from it; with backstabbers to the North, silent bystanders to the truth in the West, a weak South accustomed to doing the bidding of others, or the tired and exhausted East still reeling from the plots to destroy it along with Syria. [...]

And then suddenly they became “Friends of Syria.” Four of these ‘friends’ are autocratic, oppressive monarchies that know nothing of a civil state or democracy, whilst others are the same colonial powers which occupied, pillaged and partitioned Syria less than one hundred years ago. These so called ‘friends’ are now convening conferences to publicly declare their friendship with the Syrian people, whilst covertly facilitating their hardship and destroying their livelihoods. They openly express their outrage over the humanitarian plight of Syrians whilst deceiving the international community of their complicity. If you were truly concerned about the humanitarian situation in Syria, you would remove your strangle hold on her economy by lifting the sanctions and the embargo, and by partnering with her government in tightening security by fighting the influx of weapons and terrorists. Only then can we assure you that we will be well as we once were, without your deep concern for our wellbeing. [...]

What have you done, you who claim to speak on behalf of the Syrian people. Where is your vision for this great country? Where are your ideas or your political manifesto? Who are your agents of change on the ground other than your armed criminal gangs? I am certain that you have nothing and this is only too apparent in the areas that your mercenaries have occupied or to use your words “liberated.” [...]

 

[Darth Rotor]

Here's a translation of Moallem's outburst of righteous indignation.

I like the foreign minister's style. His frustration is palpable.

 

[The Big Dog]

Here's a translation of Moallem's outburst of righteous indignation.

Righteous.

Fortunately they have people who will uncritically repeat their righteous propaganda.

 

[Virus]

I'm not "pro-Assad" and I'm certainly not pro-the Syrian police state.

Yes you are. Don't lie.

 

[The Don]

Unfortunately it sounds like the Geneva talks are in the process of falling apart. This is regrettable but unsurprising. I've just heard on BBC radio that this morning's talks will not be going ahead.

 

[Childlike Empress]

One of the more intelligent pieces I've read about the conference: Syria after Geneva 2: more ‘dirty war’ but also some hope

[...] Joshua Landis said in Al Jazeera that the Syrian Government delegation at Geneva spoke from a position of strength, due to the loyalty of the Syrian Army, its superior weapons and the ‘fragmentation and radicalization of rebel fighting forces’. However Landis (like David Cortright of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies) also adopts the misleading sectarian theme that the conflict is Sunni Muslims versus the rest. [...]

Indeed. Surprising fact for Orientalists, with or without an Alawite wife: The Syrian Government delegation consists of five Sunni Muslims and a Druze.

 

[Virus]

Assad accused of assisting Al-Qaeda with secret oil deals.

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad has funded and co-operated with al-Qaeda in a complex double game even as the terrorists fight Damascus, according to new allegations by Western intelligence agencies, rebels and al-Qaeda defectors.

Jabhat al-Nusra, and the even more extreme Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS), the two al-Qaeda affiliates operating in Syria, have both been financed by selling oil and gas from wells under their control to and through the regime, intelligence sources have told The Daily Telegraph

 

[Childlike Empress]

The moment even John Kerry understands that nobody anymore believes the propaganda machine regardless of how many crap they throw after the other crap will be funny. Or is he one of the few who understands it and is as shameless a liar as he is because of that knowledge?

 

[LSSBB]

The moment even John Kerry understands that nobody anymore believes the propaganda machine regardless of how many crap they throw after the other crap will be funny. Or is he one of the few who understands it and is as shameless a liar as he is because of that knowledge?

That reads about as specific and understandable as a Nostradamus quatrain, CE.

 

[dudalb]

It's actually pretty simple.

Bashar al-Asaad is a brutal dictator. He happens to belong to the "Alawites" religion, which is a branch of Shia Islam. For this reason, it's better to be an "Alawis" in Syria, who get the good government contracts, easier promotion in the military, and basically are the favored people, even though they only represent a small portion of the population. Side note: Iran is also dominated by Shia Islam, but in Iran Shia are the dominant portion of the population.

The majority of the population in Syria are Suni Muslims, who are the majority Muslims. Worldwide the majority of the Muslims are also Suni, including the nut-case fundy Saudis, who are happy to throw oil money at violent extremists anywhere they find them, and Al-Qaeda.

One would be tempted to support the rebels, who are the people Asaad have been oppressing for so long, but they're attracting every crazy-fundy Suni who wants to kill gor God (and let's be honest, there are a lot of them) that if they win, they're not likely to create any but a fundamentalist Suni-Muslim state that is way more oppressive than Syria already is. Still, at least it would be the oppression of the majority, which sucks slightly less than the oppression of the minority they have now.

So...don't root for anyone. The only thing to understand is it sucks, really sucks, to be a Syrian of any kind.

This. The only reason I slightly favor the rebels is that they have not used Nerve Gas yet.
Sooner of later this is going to spill over Syrian borders into other countries. that is when the crisis really begins.

 

[Caustic Logic]

This. The only reason I slightly favor the rebels is that they have not used Nerve Gas yet.

1
2
3

key:
1 = rebels seem to have - Brown Moses.
2 = there's a big problem with the main claim that the government has - MIT scientists
3 = a bunch of other problems with that same case, compiled by me.

Sooner of later this is going to spill over Syrian borders into other countries. that is when the crisis really begins.

So far it's three years of spilling over borders into Syria from other countries, so only a sort of crisis? That's life in a bad guy country for ya. It's cheap to most minds. Besides, as I follow it, it has already been spilling over into all surrounding countries. Iraq and Lebanon, mostly. The ones supporting the injections into Syria (Turkey, Jordan) seem to have better splash-back shields than these poor nations that never did join the war against Syria, and now suffer for it along with Syria.

 

[HoverBoarder]

This. The only reason I slightly favor the rebels is that they have not used Nerve Gas yet.
Sooner of later this is going to spill over Syrian borders into other countries. that is when the crisis really begins.

Beyond Maher Al-Assad using chemical weapons, you have to look at the terrorism aspect. Assad's tactics include kidnapping hundreds of thousands and torturing/killing tens of thousands, blowing up markets, blowing up schools (lots of schools across the country), bombing breadlines (even waiting until the queue is long before dropping bombs), starving out cities, destroying/demolishing entire neighborhoods, targeting civilians, targeting children...

Assad's tactics are really not that different from AQ. The use of mass scale terrorism to frighten the population into accepting their rule. The Assad dictatorship is not just creating a vacuum for terrorism, they are creating their own terrorists, and inviting them in from Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran.

Assad's Fan Club Is Growing for All the Wrong Reasons

While Bashar and his wife Asma post photos of themselves wearing jeans and t-shirts on Instagram, he allows Shiite extremists to flood into the country. A recent report by the Meir Amit terrorism center in Israel suggested that the number of foreign Shiite jihadists in Syria is now greater than the number of foreign Sunni jihadists. Sent by hardline clerics in their home countries, these fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran aren't exactly volunteering to ensure that Syria becomes a liberal democracy. Rather, they use fundamentalist and anti-Western propaganda to recruit more fighters to join what they openly brand as a holy war. Assad places these Shiite extremists at the forefront of his so-called counter terrorism campaign, trusting their willingness to die for religious beliefs (in other words, to carry out jihad) over his beleaguered conventional military to attack rebel bastions.

It is hard to believe that Iran and Hezbollah will simply pack up and leave Syria without asking Assad to return the favor if the rebels are ever defeated. Similar to the feared al-Qaeda haven scenario, Syria will become a training ground and launching pad for Shiite extremists like Hezbollah to continue fighting their enemies across the region and in the West...

There are many, many reasons to not support the dictatorship. Spillover is already happening, but that doesn't mean the rebels would necessarily be that much better. The main problem is that there is impunity for a government to carry out large scale war crimes by buying off the security council cover of Russia. More than just the terrorism this war has created, this creates a dangerous precedent. If we really wanted to improve the situation in Syria, the international War Crimes tribunal should do its job and go after the war criminals in Syria, and bar any countries from directly aiding war criminals (in other words, this would put real pressure on Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia).

 

[HoverBoarder]

Right now, the only ones fighting the ISIS are the rebels.

Which is not so surprising that the dictator is not going after them, but what is surprising is that the ISIS is also not going after Assad.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-turn-against-most-radical-group-tied-to-al-qaeda.html?_r=0


While both the ISIS and the dictator's forces share a soft spot for killing civilians, they cannot stay at an informal truce forever. The regime waited until the ISIS was clear before bombing rebel positions during their infighting, and they refrained from attacking the ISIS directly, but I definitely do not think that this is because they are actually aligned with the ISIS. They are both just having a lull in fighting each other to finish off the moderates, which are the ultimate enemies for both of them.

Assad has been going on a mass killing spree killing spree, blowing up markets, bread lines, hospitals, schools, neighborhoods, starving out cities, and a MASSIVE campaign of abduction/torture/killings of civilians. It's a basic dictatorship rule by terrorism, a tactic taught to him by his father and his father's institutions of terror.

When the civil war broke out, the greatest threat to Assad was the moderates who could finally establish a democracy, and create a viable alternative to his bloody dictatorship. By assisting the most extremist of rebel groups, Assad is both helping to destroy the moderate rebels who are his greatest threat, as well as showing the Syrian people that the alternative (the ISIS) are also torturers and murderers, so they might as well as go with the torturer and murderer that they know (Assad).

The ISIS for their part believes that the breathing room they are being given by the dictatorship will allow them to consolidate power and resist any enemies either the rebels or the government as they have been able to do with Malaki.

The ISIS blames the Saudis and the US for the backlash against them, but while the Saudis may hold sway. Al Nursa would not take orders from the US. The ISIS forced the rebels to respond proabably sooner than they would have liked because of their attacks on rebel bases, mass detentions, mass killings of prisoners like Dr. Hussein al-Suleiman Ahrar al-Sham, and the public backlash at their harsh rule.

Assad is definitely looking to capitalize on this by moving on strategic resupply areas in Aleppo, but Aleppo is now relatively clear of ISIS. The real fight is in the North. Although their inability to refresh the forces in Aleppo could make a major difference. On the other hand, if the rebels can hold out, they could clear a major obstacle for receiving funding, especially since the removal of the ISIS was a major component of the Saudi plan to invest "several billion dollars" into the development of a 40,000 to 50,000 strong Syrian National Army.

Stop drinking the NYT kool aid.

Should be added that those areas in the very north (-west) are under "rebel" control since 2011, thanks to the hordes coming over from Turkey. Looks like Erdogan might have to pay for that soon.

There is more going on than just blindly cheerleading for your side. What the NYT was talking about is just a basic fact. That the ISIS and the dictatorship have largely been avoiding attacking each other. My interpretation of that fact is that the tactic is perfectly reasonable. In the long term neither group is compatible for coexistence, but in the short term it serves both groups goals.

For the dictator, The ISIS is killing both the moderate rebel factions, as well as the more radical leaders. Which would severely reduce their combat effectiveness. In addition, they have captured and killed many journalists, the same journalists who would have previously been busy documenting the dictators many war crimes and giving that information to the international press. They fit the narrative of terrorists that Assad has been using to justify their mass Syrian killing campaign, and the residents are generally very opposed to ISIS rule. Plus given their relative numbers, the ISIS could be driven out of Syria by the rebels, but not before they inflict huge losses on one another. It would be strategically disadvantageous for Assad to take on ISIS at this moment, and the same goes for the ISIS.​

For the ISIS, they do not have the manpower to take on both the government and the rebels. Amassing cash from extortions, kidnapping, and oil profits, and than retreating before they are driven out of Syria is likely far more advantageous than attacking both the rebels and the government, and being driven out prematurely.​

Now an unofficial truce is much different than the allegations of direct cooperation in oil sales (as detailed in the article posted by Virus). The allegation notes that there is alleged satellite evidence showing that the regime and the ISIS, who had a previous cooperative working during the Iraq war, have resumed that cooperation through mutually beneficial oil trades. The Syrian government needs cash to pay off the weapon sales and cover to commit war crimes that they purchased from Russia. The ISIS just wants money, and has experience with black market oil sales from their operations in Iraq. This allegation fits patterns of behavior from both sides, but so far has not been backed up by publically provided evidence.

 

[Caustic Logic]

You have some skill at forming a big picture view that accounts for all accusations against "Assad" in a master portrait of versatile evil. HB, I think you may be one of the few who could plug in this new hard fact and show how sanctioning Iran, and no other countries yet (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, for example), is going to help stop the Al Qaeda flow into Syria or show that we're serious about stopping Sunni extremist groups.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...eda-operations-in-syria-us.ashx#axzz2sO0HFNjY

 

[HoverBoarder]

You have some skill at forming a big picture view that accounts for all accusations against "Assad" in a master portrait of versatile evil. HB, I think you may be one of the few who could plug in this new hard fact and show how sanctioning Iran, and no other countries yet (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, for example), is going to help stop the Al Qaeda flow into Syria or show that we're serious about stopping Sunni extremist groups.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...eda-operations-in-syria-us.ashx#axzz2sO0HFNjY

Why give Shia extremist (terrorist) groups in Syria a free pass? It's not as if they're opposed to killing civilians in Syria or abroad. Plus, Iran is directly involved with helping Assad to commit massive war crimes. Assad has been the largest source of terrorism in Syria for years, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

As for AQ, the large scale primarily sectarian killings have created a vacuum. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey may not like the Assad dictatorship, but they also do not want extremists to turn their sights on them after Syria. All of them would much rather prefer that the killing in Syria would stop, and a responsible transition take place from the maniacal mass murderer in chief.

The conflict started because Assad couldn't stop his forces from torturing and killing civilians protesting against his dictatorship. The conflict escalated because his allies refused to confront him on his war crimes. The impunity for Assad to commit war crimes created a vacuum that brought in AQ, and Assad's continued use of terrorist tactics creates a magnet for terrorists on all sides of the sectarian fight to come to Syria.

AQ will definitely have to be dealt with, but sanctioning Saudi Arabia would be unlikely to stop them. Stopping Assad from committing war crimes, and pressuring them (likely through Russia and Iran) to reach an agreement for transition with Syrian people is the only way they can be stopped.

 

[Caustic Logic]

Why give Shia extremist (terrorist) groups in Syria a free pass?

Yeah, that was a pretty okay attempt.

 

[Caustic Logic]

AQ will definitely have to be dealt with, but sanctioning Saudi Arabia would be unlikely to stop them. Stopping Assad from committing war crimes, and pressuring them (likely through Russia and Iran) to reach an agreement for transition with Syrian people is the only way they can be stopped.

That sounds pretty good. Do you support new sanctions on Iran for supportin alQaeda in Syria? Do you think that's more effective than addressing the Sunni sponsors? How big of a role do you think Iran has in getting AQ there? Is it totally, mostly, or only partly an Iranian Shi'ite terrorist plot?

I get the idea of course, to make the rebels look bad and give Iran/Assad/Hezbollah etc. a heroic role turning it back. Just wondering how much of of a role is played by the help they get in that from government and un-punished people in KSA, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, Libya, the extremist networks in Iraq and Lebanon, Muslim Brotherhood, CIA, etc. Unwitting dupes? Co-conspirators? Accidental allies?

You have no idea, do you?

 

[Caustic Logic]

Interesting story, vis Global Research, or Press TV via them, but first from a Jordanian source I don't know about, JBC. Apparently not state-run or anything.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-israel-plan-to-occupy-south-syria-report/5367494

An independent Jordanian news agency says the United States and the Israeli regime are working on a joint plan to occupy southern Syria.

The JBC News said the militant groups, which the US calls moderate opposition, will help occupy two regions in southern Syria.

The regions will then unite to finally create a security belt around Israel.

The report said the groups picked by Washington will be equipped with US-made arms such as Tow anti-tank missiles.

They will also be provided with intelligence gathered by Israeli and US spying agencies.

Maybe not exacly true, but sounds like the kind of thing that has been proposed and that some people here, John McCain, etc. have rooted for. True or not, sounds promising, a renewed multinational forces "security belt" plan. Might finally turn back the entire Syrian military, its NDF and other allies, city police forces, its civilian supporters, etc. AND the non-moderate rebels (FSA IF, some other FSA, al-Nusra (AQ good cop) and ISIS (AQ bad cop, go al-Nusra!). Yes probably so!

But just in case they turn on us and go Jihadist as soon as they hit the field, and it's happened before, I recommend a backup plan. We should create another yet more moderate faction to keep the security belt people in check. This can be staffed by an even larger number of even more imaginary pure Syrian moderates, maybe ones with friggin laser eyes.

 

[Caustic Logic]

One obvious recruitment point for a new and ambitious FSA-type destabilization and re-stabilization program might draw from the impassioned citizens of the al-Zaatari refugee camp-city in Jordan.

Last August, the displaced Syrians there were reportedly 100% for Obama to bomb Syria, immediately, and to the end of regime destruction. Later we find the claims that what happened in Ghouta is at all clear were unfounded, and a disaster was avoided when these people didn't get their way. The view, as a piece in the Nation put it, was
‘We Just Wish for the Hit to Put an End to the Massacres’

In the Feb 3 Issue of Time (cover: "fleeing SYria") one Abu Anas, age 46, a candy seller from Damascus stuck in the Zaatari camp, tells reporter Karl Vick:

"I want to go back to the revolution ... as soon as we succeed, you're going to see the massacres."

(they haven't posted it on the internet, but as verifications there's ... my Feb. 5 tweet) Feel free to check your local copy. If this line isn't in your version, I'd like to know)