Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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There is sort of one going on in
here

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=271436

It also involves a change in metrics in how we measure economic activity. There are a lot of factors including in Japan a rapidly falling population.

We need better not more and metrics to include the value of sustainable and put the full cost of unsustainable into play. No easy path.
 
AGW Deniers are funny, they would deny decades of data from all around the globe, from different Independent scientific institutions, tons of datapoints all showing a consitent Picture of AGW. but the Deniers see a YT Video talking vaguely about some Quasar and they believe it instantly, no doubts.


That's because they know this sneaky, worldwide socialist conspiracy to destroy the United States' way of life has been around for decades and absolutely will not stop until the goal is achieved. Global warming... it's like The Terminator of conspiracies!
 
Hey macdoc does atmospheric CO2 mix consist of 97% naturally ocurring and ONLY 3% man-made ???? :eye-poppi

The climate is changing, but it's not changing the way the climate change crowd predicted it would. Nature has made a mockery of global warming, so who are the real climate deniers?

Global Cooling: Is an Ice Age Coming?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av_DAeTP6r4

there is no global cooling, deniers make a mockery of them self.

and really, the old long debunked "3% of CO2 is from us" myth?
 
Yes. We're typing on our computers, and using fossil fuels because this is the time and the society that we were born into.

The point isn't to don sackcloth and wander into the wilderness looking to live like an aesthetic. We're a part of this society and we're just trying to get our fellow countrymen and leaders to admit there's a problem so we can begin to work on solutions.

And that's the shame of it. The really interesting discussions will be centered around how we decide to face it, what our options are and how significantly we're willing to change ourselves in order to mitigate the effects of our lifestyles.

Yet here we are, still decades later in the same stupid discussions just trying to convince people that the problem is real and that something needs to be done.

We will have to give up using fossil fuels at some point in the future, anyway, they will run out.
 
This might be an over used phrase but the potential is there....

this changes everything......“Terrajoule’s energy storage solution removes a fundamental obstacle to the next few decades of sustainable energy growth,” and that from a Nobel prize physicist....

This really is a breakthrough

Terrajoule’s chief technology office Robert Mierisch searched back into the historical manuals to develop his idea of using the 300-year-old technology of a steam engine and a pressurised water tank as the means of storage and delivering electricity and/or waste heat on demand. Its proposal use a type of steam engine that has been out of service for decades, apart from tourist ferry or two, has raised eyebrows.

But Arno Penzias, from NEA Venture Partner, and Nobel Prize winner in Physics in 1978, said the company has made outstanding technological progress. “Terrajoule’s energy storage solution removes a fundamental obstacle to the next few decades of sustainable energy growth,” he said in a statement

According to Terrajoule (it now has its own website), the essential characteristic of the its system is its ability to rapidly respond to changes in load, functioning equivalently to the diesel generators it replaces, and without volatile fuel costs.

“Energy storage is based on pressurized saturated water, with 98% storage/retrieval efficiency,” it says in its press release. “Energy conversion is performed via reciprocating steam piston engines that are highly efficient across a wide range of operating power. The system generates steam through mature solar concentrator technology” (such as parabolic troughs).”

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/solar-storage-below-100kwh-with-the-help-of-a-steam-engine-10979

What an innovative bit of sleuthing to come up with this... :clap:

The more I read on it the the more impressed.....this really brilliant and could decentralize power for many areas
 
2013 seems to have been about 6th for surface temps, and finished on a rising note; with no sign of a La Nina, 2014 should be an even warmer one. The Pause will be looking pretty bedraggled by 2015.

Well, ENSO3.4 was -0.7 by the week ending on January 14th. Anyway it's bouncing back. I expect a Niño to begin by Southern Spring. Let's see what last quarter IV has to say about ocean heat content.
 
Because people keep talking about the pause, because my previous graph is getting old, and because I have important things to do that I'm procrastinating like crazy



Tell me again about how the warming stopped...
 
Because people keep talking about the pause, because my previous graph is getting old, and because I have important things to do that I'm procrastinating like crazy

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28152de4a0fde345.png

Tell me again about how the warming stopped...

This is the arbitrary tale that the denialist imaginarium has in offer:



The fact is that if you force the temp series into starting by February 1998 -the red dot denialists love so much- it still shows a warming trend.
 
This is the arbitrary tale that the denialist imaginarium has in offer:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3332552de4d8e4be3e.png[/qimg]

The fact is that if you force the temp series into starting by February 1998 -the red dot denialists love so much- it still shows a warming trend.

Hehe, true... but even if we compare with 1975-1998:



the trendlines are not significantly different (I guess, didn't actually test it).

The funny thing is that if we end the first series in Feb 1998, the trendlines are even more similar. There is no escaping reality...
 
Hehe, true... but even if we compare with 1975-1998:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28152de50b444c01.png

the trendlines are not significantly different (I guess, didn't actually test it).

The funny thing is that if we end the first series in Feb 1998, the trendlines are even more similar. There is no escaping reality...

I mean, I took a global temperature series (HadCRUT3) ending on November 2013, I selected the beginning in a denialist fashion to favour the denialist advocacy the most -from September 1997 on- and it gave a trend for "cooling" of about 0.0025 °C per century.

This trickery have been giving cooling trends since early 1999 and each month added had made the trend less "cooling" with just a few exceptions. Last time this trickery fuelled the denialist crowd and let them keep a straight face in lame debates was in March 2012 when it gave -0.0211°C per century. Since then almost every month has continued to pull the trend line upwards, as further values above 0.42 °C will continue to do in this particularseries -not certainly December 2013 that will end up being 0.32, 0.38 or something like that-.

So denialists have been exploiting the second most extreme Niño of the century and solar cycles as much as they have been able to, yet they are soon to experiment a withdrawal syndrome by being deprived of their carefully carved "cooling" trend.

TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC: THAT'S WHY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE MEASURED IN PERIODS EQUAL OR LONGER THAN A GIVEN STANDARD, WHICH IS 30 YEARS. THAT KEEPS EVERYONE HONEST. I ENCOURAGE YOU TO EVALUATE OR LOOK FOR THE TREND FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS. YOU'LL FIND IT TO BE WARMING AROUND +1.5°C PER CENTURY.
 
I mean, I took a global temperature series (HadCRUT3) ending on November 2013, I selected the beginning in a denialist fashion to favour the denialist advocacy the most -from September 1997 on- and it gave a trend for "cooling" of about 0.0025 °C per century.

The NCDC dataset, under those conditions, shows a value of 0.036ºC/decade.

Since then almost every month has continued to pull the trend line upwards, as further values above 0.42 °C will continue to do in this particularseries -not certainly December 2013 that will end up being 0.32, 0.38 or something like that-.

Not really sure about that. There's a whole lot of the NH that has been very warm this Winter, so the anomaly in Dec might be above the trendline.

Of course, in the case of NCDC that would mean around 0.68ºC, which is gargantuan to begin with. November was 0.78, and the average for 2013 is around 0.62 so far.

For context, the highest recorded monthly anomaly was 0.86, and the 1998 yearly anomaly was 0.63. If December's anomaly reached 0.79 (which it won't, I'm sure), that would tie the by now relatively ordinary 2013 with the mythical 1998.

So denialists have been exploiting the second most extreme Niño of the century and solar cycles as much as they have been able to, yet they are soon to experiment a withdrawal syndrome by being deprived of their carefully carved "cooling" trend.

Maybe then some serious debates on how to proceed can start on the political sphere.

TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC: THAT'S WHY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE MEASURED IN PERIODS EQUAL OR LONGER THAN A GIVEN STANDARD, WHICH IS 30 YEARS. THAT KEEPS EVERYONE HONEST. I ENCOURAGE YOU TO EVALUATE OR LOOK FOR THE TREND FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS. YOU'LL FIND IT TO BE WARMING AROUND +1.5°C PER CENTURY.

Bears repeating.
 
This trickery have been giving cooling trends since early 1999 and each month added had made the trend less "cooling" with just a few exceptions. Last time this trickery fuelled the denialist crowd and let them keep a straight face in lame debates was in March 2012 when it gave -0.0211°C per century. Since then almost every month has continued to pull the trend line upwards, as further values above 0.42 °C will continue to do in this particularseries -not certainly December 2013 that will end up being 0.32, 0.38 or something like that-.
I've been wondering about that but too lazy to do the work, so thanks. AGW deniers are notoriously blind to the passage of time so their "17 years" could be anchored on 2011 figures for all we know. November 2013 was the warmest November on record, so where's this Pause?

So denialists have been exploiting the second most extreme Niño of the century and solar cycles as much as they have been able to, yet they are soon to experiment a withdrawal syndrome by being deprived of their carefully carved "cooling" trend.
I predicted quite some years ago that the 2000's would be the denier's Golden Decade and they will remain rooted in it from here on up. Make it a long decade, 1998-2011, and that prediction's looking good so far.

I think it was in 2005 when a paper was published showing that, given natural variability and trend, hiatus decades are not only possible but quite likely - as are decades well above the trend, of curse. Deniers lucked out with a hiatus decade early on but those halcyon days are gone now. Even without an El Nino the trend is inexorably grinding them down.


ETA : Did I say "lazy"? I meant busy, of course :)
 
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CapelDodger
The glaciation Haig expects to wake up to any day now won't happen for at least twenty thousand.

Well now lets not be absolute on that :D- what COULD occur?

Sun stays quiet for a century ...knocks .1 degree off and maybe impacts Europe worse.

India continues to pump out SO2 in ever increasing amounts so global dimming becomes the prevailing driver offsetting and more the C02 signal.

C02 emissions drop precipitously in North America and Europe and a major campaign for reforestation and land use management kicks into gear sequestering unprecedent amounts of carbon ..perhaps with genetic engineering fungi introduced into forest.

Two or three major volcanoes of Pinatubo class occur in diverse areas reducing global air lines flights for several years with sustained eruptions ejecting dust and more S02 into the stratosphere.
The clearer skies without contrails promote faster radiation to space ( recall 911 ), the S02 creates more dimming, the dust curtails airline travel, has some dimming impacts and promotes wide spread plankton growth in the Pacific sucking up more C02.

The combination drops the global temp 3 degrees in a year and then heads down as a major algae bloom in the Pacific from the constant dust continues and the cooler ocean absorbs more C02 starts a downward accelerated cooling.

Unlikely? maybe
Historical precedent?? Yep.

Dust Veil of AD 536
Cometary Impact, Volcanic Eruption or Near Miss?

By K. Kris Hirst
See More About disasters medieval vikings

Volcanic ash from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 makes for a pretty sunset on the northern coast of France.

Angus MacRae
According to written records and supported by dendrochronology and archaeological evidence, for 12-18 months in AD 536-537, a thick, persistent dust veil or dry fog darkened the skies between Europe and Asia Minor. The climatic interruption brought by the thick, bluish fog extended as far east as China, where summer frosts and snow are recorded in historical records; tree ring data from Mongolia and Siberia to Argentina and Chile reflect decreased growing records from 536 and the subsequent decade.

The climatic effects of the dust veil brought decreased temperatures, drought and food shortages throughout the affected regions: in Europe two years later came the Justinian smallpox plague. The combination killed perhaps as much as 1/3 of the population of Europe; in China the famine killed perhaps 80% of people in some regions; in Scandinavia the losses may be been as much as 75-90% of the population, as evidenced by the numbers of deserted villages and cemeteries.

Historical Documentation

The rediscovery of the AD 536 event was made during the 1980s by American geoscientists Stothers and Rampino, who searched classical sources for evidence of volcanic eruptions. Among their other findings, they noted several references to environmental disasters around the world between AD 536-528.

Contemporary reports identified by Stothers and Rampino included Michael the Syrian, who wrote "the sun became dark and its darkness lasted for one and a half years... Each day it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow...the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." John of Ephesos related much the same events. Prokopios living in in Africa and Italy, said "For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed."

An anonymous Syriac chronicler wrote "...the sun began to be darkened by day and the moon by night, while ocean was tumultuous with spray, from the 24th of March in this year till the 24th of June in the following year..." and the following winter in Mesopotamia was so bad that "from the large and unwonted quantity of snow the birds perished."

Cassiodorus, praetorian prefect of Italy at the time, wrote "so we have had a winter without storms, spring without mildness, summer without heat". John Lydos, in On Portents, writing from Constantinople, said: "If the sun becomes dim because the air is dense from rising moisture--as happened in [536/537] for nearly a whole year...so that produce was destroyed because of the bad time--it predicts heavy trouble in Europe."

And in China, reports indicate that the star of Canopus could not be seen in as usual in the spring and fall equinoxes of 536, and the years AD 536-538 were marked by summer snows and frosts, drought and severe famine. In some parts of China, the weather was so severe that 70-80% of the people starved to death.

more

http://archaeology.about.com/od/medieval/qt/Dust-Veil-of-AD-536.htm

Could we trigger it and then natural events enhance it? - yep. Add in a few comets and interesting times :D

CO2 magnification of climate drivers works both ways.
The system is ponderous to shift directions but C02s main role is usually feedback. Currently it is the primary driver due to our actions.
We've seen that lack of understanding of CO2s role frequently in this thread.

Common Climate Misconceptions
CO2 as a Feedback and Forcing in the Climate SystemZeke Hausfather — October 25, 2007

A fundamental misconception about the role that carbon dioxide plays in glacial transitions has helped fuel the argument that the lag time between temperature and CO2 in the paleoclimate record casts doubt on carbon dioxide as an important greenhouse gas.
It’s crucial that media reporting on climate change understand an important distinction between the dual roles of greenhouse gases as both forcings and feedbacks.

http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.or...a-feedback-and-forcing-in-the-climate-system/

So not impossible...but unlikely.

What's for sure ...BAU without curbing CO2 emissions WILL make for interesting times...and already is.
 
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Like Sweden this year with daffodils in December at latitude 61 north.
Residents living in far northern Sweden woke up to a temperature of -41.2 C on Sunday as the harsh winter continues to bite across the rest of the country.

The village of Karesuando, right at the very northern tip of Sweden, clocked the epic cold temperature during Sunday reports the Swedish weather agency SMHI.

"It is also a seasonal record," said SMHI meteorologist Lars Unnerstad to the TT news agency. The recorded temperature of -41.2 was a record for that region which is right on the Finnish border.
http://www.thelocal.se/20140119/temperatures-hit-41-in-swedish-cold-snap

and in other news.....Norway is basking in springtime temps...
January 14, 2014 – NORWAY - Norwegian public radio reports on the instant dead of thousands of fish in a bay in the island of Lovund, Norway. An air temperature of -7.8 C (17.96 F) combined with a strong east wind froze the sea water instantly, trapping and killing the fish you can see in this fishapocalyptic image:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/oddnews...a-bunch-of-fish-swimming-in-it-232504960.html

I'm going to call it the macdoc effect.
 
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Because people keep talking about the pause, because my previous graph is getting old, and because I have important things to do that I'm procrastinating like crazy

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_28152de4a0fde345.png[/qimg]

Tell me again about how the warming stopped...

Well the deniers never said that before 1998 (or something like that) the temperatures havent been rising? But from that point and on it has been a pause (or what ever you wanna call it). When it comes to surface temperature ofcourse.

Something that this graph proves:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

Or am I wrong? But then if this pause really tells us anything, proves something etc? I have no idéa. Since 15 years doesnt really mean anything and as proven in this thread, some models have been expecting it.

EDIT: Also, I live in the middle of Sweden and we have a got a fullblown winter now over here. Just as it should be. But for november and december it was just depressing :)
 
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Well the deniers never said that before 1998 (or something like that) the temperatures havent been rising? But from that point and on it has been a pause (or what ever you wanna call it). When it comes to surface temperature ofcourse.

Something that this graph proves:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

Or am I wrong? But then if this pause really tells us anything, proves something etc? I have no idéa. Since 15 years doesnt really mean anything and as proven in this thread, some models have been expecting it.

EDIT: Also, I live in the middle of Sweden and we have a got a fullblown winter now over here. Just as it should be. But for november and december it was just depressing :)

we still have no snow here. atleast its getting a bit colder now.
 
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