Continuation Part Seven: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[AmyStrange]

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Well start with the easy bit. It certainly proves the murder was all over, and the murderer escaped, before the car broke down.

But really, this is nuts. It absolutely encapsulates why this case is so completely ********** up. In the normal course of digestive physiology, it was better than evens that some of that meal would have been in Meredith's duodenum even before she got home. It wasn't, but them's were the odds. When she got home, the gastric transit was at the stage it was going to start any time.

You need extraordinarily strong evidence showing something other than a murder soon after she arrived home even to question that interpretation. If there had been such evidence, there still wasn't going to be a lot of wiggle-room.

What you do have, is absolute proof the murder happened before the break-down though, so you can at least start with that. Rolfe.

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Thanks Rolfe,

you'll get no arguement from this quarter,

d

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[RoseMontague]

In terms of the digestion and TOD discussion and why the defense was so weak about it I think people need to go back in time and get context. Not only did the prosecution move the time late but they depended on the witnesses that no reasonable person could take seriously. Curatolo was at best a homeless guy that had told the police he'd seen nothing. Nara gave no time. Formica had it around 10:15.

All the evidence pointed to death no later than 10. The police had speculated the early time from the beginning. Why would the defense think they needed the digestive analysis at all?

As we have seen the PGP are moving to the earlier time anyway.

It's funny that they are starting to accept the earlier TOD while desperately trying to cling to the reliability of Curatolo and Nara. To do this the pro guilt wiki claims their testimony says something it does not say. That is really sad.

 

[acbytesla]

Well start with the easy bit. It certainly proves the murder was all over, and the murderer escaped, before the car broke down.

But really, this is nuts. It absolutely encapsulates why this case is so completely ********** up. In the normal course of digestive physiology, it was better than evens that some of that meal would have been in Meredith's duodenum even before she got home. It wasn't, but them's were the odds. When she got home, the gastric transit was at the stage it was going to start any time.

You need extraordinarily strong evidence showing something other than a murder soon after she arrived home even to question that interpretation. If there had been such evidence, there still wasn't going to be a lot of wiggle-room.

What you do have, is absolute proof the murder happened before the break-down though, so you can at least start with that.

Rolfe.

I don't doubt the science at all, but I do honestly question just how accurately the timing of when she started her meal Rolfe. I know the testimony. I just have never found eyewitness testimony to be that reliable.

 

[RoseMontague]

“If it is so important, why does the Hellmann report not even mention the topic of gastric emptying and TOD?”

This is the exact question I asked, RoseMontague. I was aware that H discussed the TOD, but not in relation to food being absent from the duodenum. If you are correct, then perhaps I missed it in my readings.

No, but it goes to show how strong the evidence is for an earlier TOD. As one poster already pointed out, it was a bit confusing in the first trial. The five or six "experts" gave a variety of opinions based on a variety of starting times of the meal, ignoring the testimony of Meredith's friends but maybe instead going by what they were told was the start of the meal. Going by memory at least one "expert" had it based on the end of the meal and even the defense in their appeal filing got the start of the meal wrong. So none of them, defense or prosecution were really up on this evidence. Fortunately the rest of the evidence is conclusive as is the correctly interpreted stomach contents evidence based on the correct time of the start of the meal, regardless if the judges have the correct information rather than all the different "expert" opinions.

 

[AmyStrange]

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It's funny that they are starting to accept the earlier TOD while desperately trying to cling to the reliability of Curatolo and Nara. To do this the pro guilt wiki claims their testimony says something it does not say. That is really sad.

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The 9:30 TOD, although proves Amanda's innocence in my mind, that doesn't eliminate the possibility that Amanda (with or without Raffaele) came home later that night, finding the broken window, running upstairs, seeing Meredith's door locked, banged on it, hearing scary noises coming from the other side (this could explain some of her false confession), and running away in panic and pretending she hadn't been there earlier.

*Raffaele might have conceivably fell asleep for a bit giving Amanda a chance to go home for something or for whatever innocent reason.

What proof is there (other than what Rudy has said, in other words collaborative evidence) that Rudy left right after the murder?

I have no proof that this happened except in that wonderful nation, the imagination,

d

*ETA One thing I've found in my experimental life of drugs, pot tends to make me nod off now and again. I have never seen any credible evidence that pot makes you violent though. I watched the Amelie film while high and I nodded off a couple times. There was no way I was getting off that couch and do one freakin' thing that involved anything physical.
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[Rolfe]

I don't doubt the science at all, but I do honestly question just how accurately the timing of when she started her meal Rolfe. I know the testimony. I just have never found eyewitness testimony to be that reliable.

Well how late do you think she started to eat that pizza?

As far as I can see, the only thing these uncertainties achieve is to explain rather better how it was that the gastric transit hadn't begun even before she got home.

I cannot see any reasonable timescale which allows for Meredith still to be alive by the time the break-down truck drove away. So whatever you're going to do, you have to get the murder events in before the car broke down.

As regards 10 pm rather than 9.20 or so, well maybe, but given all the circumstantial evidence pointing to Meredith not having settled in to spend time in her home before the attack started, what reason do you have for pushing it towards the later time?

Rolfe.

 

[RoseMontague]

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The 9:30 TOD, although proves Amanda'a innocence in my mind, that doesn't eliminate the possibility that Amanda (with or without Raffaele) came home later that night, finding the broken window, running upstairs, seeing Meredith's door locked, banged on it, hearing scary noises coming from the other side (this could explain some of her false confession), and running away in panic and pretending she hadn't been there earlier.

Raffaele might have conceivably fell asleep for a bit giving Amanda a chance to go home for something or for whatever innocent reason.

What proof is there (other than what Rudy has said, in other words collaborative evidence) that Rudy left right after the murder?

I have no proof that this happened except my imagination,

d

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The cell phone data proves it.

 

[Kaosium]

FWIW – in following this case since its inception, this is an opinion I have
not held. Before I bid you adios and leave with my stupidity (thanks bri1), I wanted to thank you for approaching my posts genuinely.

I will take my Bertrand Russell pipe and smoke it with the doubters (of whom I could find nowhere), keeping off reading all of the forums, and awaiting the only decision that counts in the end.

Consider these three salient points:

1. There's already an explanation for the murder, Rudy Guede did it.

2. Everything that led to Raffaele and Amanda's arrest in the first place (as per the Matteini Report of November 8th, 2007) turned out to be irrelevant (the texts Amanda and Patrick exchanged) or bogus attributions. The 'theory of the crime' as represented there was entirely imaginary and based upon either no evidence whatsoever or 'support' like the fact that Raffaele had a manga comic and a year before (curiously mis-dated by the prosecution to say it was more recent) had written on his blog that he wanted to try 'extreme experiences.'

3. An Italian Court has already acquitted them.

Knowing those three things, why wouldn't you look askance at those who are so certain of Raffaele and Amanda's guilt? Isn't it rather strange that none of those things would give them pause in their surety? There's so much reasonable doubt in this case starting with the fact there was a broken window and a dead girl and there was copious evidence of a guy who'd likely burgled places who left his evidence all over the dead girl and her room to come to the conclusion any scenario involving people from their mistaken first arrest is highly unlikely. When the slew of garbage they slung at them in the attempt to still include them turns out to be specious or wholly unscientific it's not difficult for people who've examined it to come to the conclusion the nearly unprecedented scenario of three people who barely knew each other and couldn't really communicate well spontaneously conspiring to murder someone for no definable reason with no mob, cult or gang influences is nigh impossible.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Since when are 2 people required to be on a computer for it to have activity?

That's a fair question.

Meredith's murder was the act of a disorganised killer, and both the prosecution and defence have always agreed on that. It wasn't a premeditated crime.

Now if the killing showed signs of being a premeditated crime, then maybe we could work on some Agatha Christie plot where Amanda stays at home doing stuff on the computer while Raffaele goes out to murder Meredith. Heck, we could even have Raffaele creating a script that did stuff on his computer at timed intervals while he was out and then erased itself from the computer. Then they could both go out and murder people. However it wasn't a premeditated murder so that isn't really an option.

Conceivably one of the two could have popped out for half an hour between 21:00 and 21:30 and helped commit impromptu murder but then the other one has absolutely no reason to cover for them. I think that sinks that line of inquiry immediately even before we start to consider the absurdity of Amanda or Raffaele finding Rudy mid-crime in the flat and deciding that the thing to do is to pitch in on Rudy's side instead of helping Meredith or calling the police.

A few guilters (not the actual prosecution) have faffed about with various hybrid theories where Raffaele and Amanda aren't there for Meredith's murder but then try to cover it up anyway, but that makes absolutely no sense either. There's no sign of a clean-up at the crime scene, nor any motive for someone not involved in the murder to cover up for someone who was.

Once again, there's a reason Mignini pushed back his theorised time of death to 23:30. Between the broken-down car and the computer evidence there's just no time to tell a coherent story where a murder happens and Amanda and Raffaele are involved any earlier. There needs to be time for a drug-fuelled sex orgy or for an argument about poo to turn homicidal or whatever the prosecution story du jour is today to happen.

 

[acbytesla]

It's funny that they are starting to accept the earlier TOD while desperately trying to cling to the reliability of Curatolo and Nara. To do this the pro guilt wiki claims their testimony says something it does not say. That is really sad.

That really shows just how demented they are Rose. Curatolo actually provides Amanda and Raffaele an alibi up until 11:30. And Nara is guessing it's about 11:30 or a couple of hours after she went to bed. .

So I ask the guilters out there how are either of these two even remotely credible? I mean Crini is suggesting a pre 10:30 TOD.

They can never fit the evidence with a timeline. It just won't work. If they say late, then the digestive evidence, Rudy's recall, the phone calls and the other anecdotal evidence doesn't work.

If they say early, well there goes all their witnesses. They all become worthless.

 

[Rolfe]

The cell phone data proves it.

Where was the phone when the random calls that were probably Rudy trying to turn it off were made? Was that before the 10.15 call to the other tower?

One thing that strikes me is this. One absolutely clear reason for acquittal is a perfectly reasonable theory of the crime that accounts for all the evidence and doesn't involve the accused. It doesn't even have to be as probable or more probable than the scenario that has the accused guilty, it just has to be within reasonable grounds of probability.

The "Rudy killed Meredith not long after nine o'clock" is so damn reasonable it should have been the working hypothesis from the start. What do we have that contradicts that? Nothing but flaky stories that might not have had anything to do with the crime at all, and a couple of pieces of forensic evidence of the most exquisite unreliability.

Rolfe.

 

[RoseMontague]

Where was the phone when the random calls that were probably Rudy trying to turn it off were made? Was that before the 10.15 call to the other tower?

One thing that strikes me is this. One absolutely clear reason for acquittal is a perfectly reasonable theory of the crime that accounts for all the evidence and doesn't involve the accused. It doesn't even have to be as probable or more probable than the scenario that has the accused guilty, it just has to be within reasonable grounds of probability.

The "Rudy killed Meredith not long after nine o'clock" is so damn reasonable it should have been the working hypothesis from the start. What do we have that contradicts that? Nothing but flaky stories that might not have had anything to do with the crime at all, and a couple of pieces of forensic evidence of the most exquisite unreliability.

Rolfe.

Yes. I am attaching the cell phone section of Raffaele's first appeal. It gives a very good argument for TOD.

 

[Grinder]

Well how late do you think she started to eat that pizza?

As far as I can see, the only thing these uncertainties achieve is to explain rather better how it was that the gastric transit hadn't begun even before she got home.

I cannot see any reasonable timescale which allows for Meredith still to be alive by the time the break-down truck drove away. So whatever you're going to do, you have to get the murder events in before the car broke down.

As regards 10 pm rather than 9.20 or so, well maybe, but given all the circumstantial evidence pointing to Meredith not having settled in to spend time in her home before the attack started, what reason do you have for pushing it towards the later time?

Rolfe.

This isn't a classic case of an eye-witness to something happening such as a car crash or assault. The other people at the dinner each recalled the time and IIRC it varied from 5:30 to 6:30. Not only were there several people giving testimony but they had planned the dinner and the movie. They had agreed to meet, eat and watch the movie. Unlike Nara I'm betting they had a clock in the kitchen and used it to time when the pizza would be done. Someone had to get the pizza ready and would have planned it for the arrival of the guests.

I have total faith that they began their meal before 6:30.

 

[AmyStrange]

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The cell phone data proves it.

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What time were those pings (was it a moving ping or a stationary ping, is ping the right terminology?) and is there any evidence proving he didn't go back to the house after getting rid of the cells? At what time did witnesses start seeing Rudy at the dance clubs?

Thanx for answering Rose,

d

ETA maybe after getting rid of the phones, his adrenalin high starting to go down, he began to become calculating? Man, I'm already busted, I left with out any money, what have I got to lose now? Going back, raping Meredith again, and grabbing the money, and that's what Amanda heard on the other side of the door that scared the hell out of her and maybe what she was really blocking out was not Meredith's screams. but her own. This is all still filed under the category "imaginary".
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[Grinder]

That really shows just how demented they are Rose. Curatolo actually provides Amanda and Raffaele an alibi up until 11:30. And Nara is guessing it's about 11:30 or a couple of hours after she went to bed. .

Curatolo says just before midnight if you'd read what he said and Nara really doesn't say. She only claims to have gone to bed early because TV sucked and that it usually takes 2 hours to work but she didn't look at a clock the whole time.

Massei changed it to 11:30. Read it yourself.

 

[Rolfe]

Once again, there's a reason Mignini pushed back his theorised time of death to 23:30. Between the broken-down car and the computer evidence there's just no time to tell a coherent story where a murder happens and Amanda and Raffaele are involved any earlier. There needs to be time for a drug-fuelled sex orgy or for an argument about poo to turn homicidal or whatever the prosecution story du jour is today to happen.

Exactly. And the digestive tract evidence shows that Meredith was most certainly dead before then.

If the body temperature had been taken ASAP, and Meredith had been weighed, and they accounted for her body being covered by the duvet, I wonder what sort of time window would have come out of that? I wonder what Mignini knew at the time of the initial investigation that caused him to prevent the temperature being taken?

Again, the digestive tract evidence together with the car break-down shows that nobody could have murdered Meredith later than the time the car broke down. It's impossible. So how can Amanda and Raffaele be shoe-horned into that?

This whole thing is so far into la-la land that it beggars credulity. I can see theses being written about it ten years down the line. It makes the other screw-up I'm spending most of my time on look like a readily understandable small slip-up.

Rolfe.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

negative controls in 2011

I will note C&V asked Stefi twice for the negative controls and still did not have them as of the morning of this hearing and also note that the defense is still requesting the raw data.

I read that part; thank you. At the end of the portion that you posted, it seemed to me that we were just getting to the issue of the newly-found controls. Is that your interpretation also?

 

[acbytesla]

Well how late do you think she started to eat that pizza?

As far as I can see, the only thing these uncertainties achieve is to explain rather better how it was that the gastric transit hadn't begun even before she got home.

I cannot see any reasonable timescale which allows for Meredith still to be alive by the time the break-down truck drove away. So whatever you're going to do, you have to get the murder events in before the car broke down.

As regards 10 pm rather than 9.20 or so, well maybe, but given all the circumstantial evidence pointing to Meredith not having settled in to spend time in her home before the attack started, what reason do you have for pushing it towards the later time?

Rolfe.

I don't disagree with you Rolfe. Not one bit. I'm just saying the British girls could be off by as much as a half hour to when Meredith began her meal. Beyond that, it grows much more unlikely. Note, I said "could".

This is one of the reasons I'm very convinced of Amanda'a and Raffaele's innocence. None of the prosecution "eyewitnesses" are worth a damn. Most eyewitnesses are terrible to begin with, but theirs' are particularly bad.

It is a case built on subjective perception, not real evidence. There is only one piece of evidence that the police has that has ever given me pause and even it is not scientifically credible.

 

[RoseMontague]

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What time were those pings (was it a moving ping or a stationary ping, is ping the right terminology?) and is there any evidence proving he didn't go back to the house after getting rid of the cells? At what time did witnesses start seeing Rudy at the dance clubs?

Thanx for answering Rose,

d

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Read the attachment I just posted above, the ping thing is a myth btw. There are no ping records, just records of incoming or outgoing calls or messages and which towers handled those calls.

 

[acbytesla]

Curatolo says just before midnight if you'd read what he said and Nara really doesn't say. She only claims to have gone to bed early because TV sucked and that it usually takes 2 hours to work but she didn't look at a clock the whole time.

Massei changed it to 11:30. Read it yourself.

I know Grinder, I was allowing a little bit of flexibility. I said "after 11:30.

My point was that either of these two witnesses contradict the pre 10:30 TOD but given that Nara didn't actually look at a clock, her testimony is extra worthless...any way you look at it.