It's actually a perfectly reasonable & correct statement from dejudge - - Belz told him that he is 60-40 in favour of believing Jesus was real. That's a statement saying he believes Jesus was in fact real. And iirc that's precisely what dejudge just said.
I'm sorry, but you're just as misguided as dejudge regarding the concept of probability (not to mention, apparently, "obtuse"). Belz...'s statement clearly indicates that he has not ruled out the possibility that Jesus never existed as a real person. In fact, he estimates a 40% chance that this is the case. I've already posted the following quote twice, but it's worth repeating a third time:
"People educated in [the critical habit of thought] ...are slow to believe. They can hold things as possible or probable in all degrees, without certainty and without pain." - William Graham Sumner
In other words, Belz... doesn't
believe that Jesus existed, nor does he
believe that Jesus did not exist. This is because there isn't enough evidence to say with certainty that Jesus did or did not exist. But, with the evidence that is available, one can form an opinion about whether one or the other proposition is more or less likely than the other. That's why I used the example of a juror considering the evidence against a defendant. In a court trial, the jurors are not supposed to find a defendant guilty just because they think he
might have committed the crime. They are only supposed to convict if they are logically certain, based on the evidence presented, that the defendant committed the act with which he has been charged. Short of that, they are expected to acquit. Just because a juror votes "not guilty", it doesn't mean that he/she is certain of the defendant innocence. In fact, he/she could think there's a good chance that the defendant did commit the crime. But, if uncertain, they are expected to acquit.
It's like encountering someone who claims that evolution is a violation of entropy: there's no point debating the details of evolution by natural selection with such a person until he/she acquires a basic understanding of thermodynamics. Similarly, I see no point debating the degrees of probability of plausible histories with someone who does not yet understand that acknowledging the possibility of an event is not the same as declaring it true.
What? You are saying that the fact that Christianity survived and spread is evidence that Jesus was indeed real?? Come on, you cannot be serious (in the words of Mr McEnroe).
You seem to be conflating "evidence" with "proof". One possible explanation for the existence of the Jesus movement beginning in the mid to late 1st Century is that a religious figure was executed by the Romans for sedition, and his narrative appropriated by many others who changed the story to suit their own theological convictions. This possibility is lent support by certain awkward narrative elements that can be traced to the earliest textual witnesses; elements that can be explained as retrofitting the elements of a real Jesus' life and death into a new narrative. This doesn't mean that it is certain that this is what happened, but it is a plausible explanation that can't be ruled out. So if you are demanding
proof that Jesus certainly existed, you might want to provide
proof that Jesus was mythical. Otherwise, understand that historical subjects often involve degrees of probability, not dichotomous certainties.