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How To Use Bitcoin – The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man

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mhaze said:
There is no margin account on MtGox. Did not keep you from dreaming it up.
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Yes, I couldn't find any mention of it so I guess not. Trades like it though. If money is so hard to get out of Mt. Gox. I can't see people putting money in to support the large trades that have been made lately.
 
psionl0 said:
You know what wrs is on about because you have asked him for a time frame. Yet you tried to switch the discussion to volatility is a problem.
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This has nothing to do with my question: what did you mean by "doomsday" if not actual doom-sayers ? If you meant actual doom-sayers, then again that some people are wrong doesn't mean others are, so your argument is useless. So which is it ?
 
wrs said:
Yes, I couldn't find any mention of it so I guess not. Trades like it though. If money is so hard to get out of Mt. Gox. I can't see people putting money in to support the large trades that have been made lately.
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So no margin trading means even less liquidity is available. What we've got is a few Bitwhales passing coins between each other's wallets to keep the "bid" high, and siphoning the cash off from the suckers who join the party late. I guess if you don't get greedy and dump a whole bunch of BTC at once, you could do this for a while. Sooner or later though, the new money will stop coming in, at least not in meaningful amounts. That's when you'll see the bubble pop.
 
jhunter1163 said:
So no margin trading means even less liquidity is available. What we've got is a few Bitwhales passing coins between each other's wallets to keep the "bid" high, and siphoning the cash off from the suckers who join the party late. I guess if you don't get greedy and dump a whole bunch of BTC at once, you could do this for a while. Sooner or later though, the new money will stop coming in, at least not in meaningful amounts. That's when you'll see the bubble pop.
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I think so but actually no margin is a good thing for the run of the mill bitbugs because it reduces the leverage in a crash. This is what mystifies me about the volatility though is that there isn't any margin and yet it's still very volatile on the upside after huge drops.

Anyway, here is a 5 min chart showing a triangle breakdown under a downtrend line. Could be bad but 5m charts don't mean much in the larger view of things. As mhaze points out, technical analysis is just a way to kill time. On stock exchanges it is used by algos and so it's worth doing because algos pay attention to it.

ETA, hourly triangle breakdown added.
 

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wrs said:
Yes, I couldn't find any mention of it so I guess not. Trades like it though. If money is so hard to get out of Mt. Gox. I can't see people putting money in to support the large trades that have been made lately.
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On Dec 5 between 8am and 10am, roughly $15MM worth of BTC were sold. Someone bought those, and someone's numbers in a computer reflect it -- but I'm highly curious where the $15MM in actual money is residing, since MtGox doesn't seem to be able to put their hands on that much in any reasonable timeframe, and that chart pulls from MtGox.

According to what we've been told here and what I've read, someone (well, a lot of different someones obviously) had to have deposited $15MM in an account to make those purchases. But the MtGox withdrawal options are all painfully staggered so that it's trivial to put cash in, but very hard to get cash out. I'd sure like to know what the problem is there -- as well as all those other exchanges that Beelzebuddy appears to be trying to use to liquidate his own gains.
 
jhunter1163 said:
So no margin trading means even less liquidity is available. What we've got is a few Bitwhales passing coins between each other's wallets to keep the "bid" high, and siphoning the cash off from the suckers who join the party late. I guess if you don't get greedy and dump a whole bunch of BTC at once, you could do this for a while. Sooner or later though, the new money will stop coming in, at least not in meaningful amounts. That's when you'll see the bubble pop.
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Well, yeah. You wouldn't actually stop doing it until you stop seeing your own numbers go up by any appreciable amount. That's when there's no new money coming in, and then you start trying to get out as gradually as you can -- the goal is to sell the vast majority of yours off before anyone realizes what's happening, so that you're on the leading edge of the pulse and everyone else is boned.

The risk of course is that the hypothetical 'you' in this case is not the only person doing this, by a long shot. Adversarial partnerships-of-circumstance such as the one we see here are far from unusual, but they aren't going to be talking on the phone/via email to each other and arranging it -- so whenever one decides to 'defect'*, all the other players have to spot it right away and choose for themselves whether to pick up his slack or follow his lead. The crash will come when enough of them follow the leader.



* Prisoner's Dilemma variant, yes
 
remirol said:
On Dec 5 between 8am and 10am, roughly $15MM worth of BTC were sold. Someone bought those, and someone's numbers in a computer reflect it -- but I'm highly curious where the $15MM in actual money is residing, since MtGox doesn't seem to be able to put their hands on that much in any reasonable timeframe, and that chart pulls from MtGox.

According to what we've been told here and what I've read, someone (well, a lot of different someones obviously) had to have deposited $15MM in an account to make those purchases. But the MtGox withdrawal options are all painfully staggered so that it's trivial to put cash in, but very hard to get cash out. I'd sure like to know what the problem is there -- as well as all those other exchanges that Beelzebuddy appears to be trying to use to liquidate his own gains.
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It would be cynical of me to suggest self-dealing, but BTC isn't regulated by the SEC.. so what's to stop someone from transferring $15MM of BTC from his left pocket to his right and calling it a "sale"?

ETA: For the bithuggers, the answer is "nothing".
 
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Belz... said:
This has nothing to do with my question: what did you mean by "doomsday" if not actual doom-sayers ? If you meant actual doom-sayers, then again that some people are wrong doesn't mean others are, so your argument is useless. So which is it ?
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Unless you genuinely believe that wrs is not putting up a doomsday scenario, I think you must be toying with me.
 
jhunter1163 said:
It would be cynical of me to suggest self-dealing, but BTC isn't regulated by the SEC.. so what's to stop someone from transferring $15MM of BTC from his left pocket to his right and calling it a "sale"?
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He has to have the "$15MM" in his trading account to effect the purchase/sale for one thing.
 
psionl0 said:
He has to have the "$15MM" in his trading account to effect the purchase/sale for one thing.
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this is a valid point. if I have 10k Bitcoins, that's not a $USD amount I can trade with, I have to sell some to realize money to buy with?

Including the fees I don't really see how you sell backwards and forwards to yourself or a partner without losing money all the time, unless you are so large you ARE the market, then it is maybe quite easy.
 
kevsta said:
is it not true? there are some people offering independent margin "workarounds" but I didn't think margin/leverage accounts had been a feature of BTC trading much thus far.

there are a few independents though https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=trade+bitcoin+on+leverage&pws=0&hl=en&num=10

and this http://bit4x.com/ which allows you to trade normal forex pairs and commodities paying with your Bitcoins at up to 500x leverage LOL!! now we're talking..:)

with regards price action, from a technical perspective todays action is going to be quite important IMO, as the primary trendline intersects the $1000 mark.

[qimg]http://www.seoibiza.com/company/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/decision.jpg[/qimg]

if this upchannel is going to fail it could well be here, but trend is still clearly upwards at this point
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Then there is this ICBIT Futures exchange with lot's of leverage.

https://icbit.se/WebTrade/Trading.aspx?s=BUH4

Some interesting chat going on over there right now.
 
jhunter1163 said:
It would be cynical of me to suggest self-dealing, but BTC isn't regulated by the SEC.. so what's to stop someone from transferring $15MM of BTC from his left pocket to his right and calling it a "sale"?

ETA: For the bithuggers, the answer is "nothing".
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Transaction fee and exchange fee costs.

I can't fathom why anyone would think that devious parties would try to 'prop up bitcoin prices', or manipulate the bitcoin market.

But the underlying question is whether around 1000 is 'the new normal'.

Personally I think it is, so do a lot of people. A normal trading range is one where no propping up is plausible or required. But I really don't care what new equilibrium price is established.

There is no unusual "outside the normal" activity in the last two or three days to support the wild speculation on this forum of collusion and bitwhale price support.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

Nothing. No evidence for the conspiracy theories presented, therefore these posts, should probably be moved to the appropriate off public forum to avoid embarrassment.
 
kevsta said:
this is a valid point. if I have 10k Bitcoins, that's not a $USD amount I can trade with, I have to sell some to realize money to buy with?

Including the fees I don't really see how you sell backwards and forwards to yourself or a partner without losing money all the time, unless you are so large you ARE the market, then it is maybe quite easy.
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This theory would involve say, you being MtGox and doing so. But nobody has examined the blockchain and found evidence of such.
 
wrs said:
.... As mhaze points out, technical analysis is just a way to kill time..... .
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Thank you for noting that. There may also, ... no, there certainly are automated trading bots working bitcoin, given that the bitcoin community is overall really adept at programming and hacking.
 
bid stack collapsing again, fast....

Somebody is getting out of dodge
 

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mhaze said:
Thank you for noting that. There may also, ... no, there certainly are automated trading bots working bitcoin, given that the bitcoin community is overall really adept at programming and hacking.
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So far the triangle breakdown is continuing. Target is 750 or lower if it is a real breakdown.
 

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