Belz...
Fiend God
What is this supposed to show ?
How To Use Bitcoin – The Most Important Creation In The History Of Man
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What is this supposed to show ?
mhaze
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Given that the generic news reporting community is unable or struggling to understand bitcoin, in order to write articles, they are producing output that is is of low quality - many factual errors, mistaken premises, etc.
Given that the generic JREF wanna be skeptical thinker simply reads popular news articles, rejurgitates them in a link in a sort of "Oh, YEAH? Well what about THIS, HUH?" manner, actual analysis flies out the window. The effort is more to have a sport by dancing around an issue, but this is difficult with the water logged, high rubber boots they all have from standing in a few inches of water looking out over the lake to prove the Lock Ness monster does not exist.
This is a difficult job, of course. Here is the way it works.
Lock Ness - Vigilant JREFster peers out at lake, shouts "See? No monster yet!" every three minutes until his feet get cold.
Abomidable Snowman - Vigilant JREFster sits in coffee shop, with acute vision looks out at the far, snow colored hills, ignoring the cute waitress and shouts "See? No Yeti yet!" every three minutes until booted out.
Bitcoin - Wise in the wisdom of the ages of skeptical lore, the JREF hamster looks at the stores down the street and whispers nervously "See? They don't take bitcoin. Yet..."
QED.
mhaze
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Probably because the bitcoin is algorithmic and mathematically, we see this sort of comment on this thread quite often. Opinion is mistaken as fact.
Fact is that anyone who had listened to MichaelSuede in 2009 when he started this thread and bought $30,000 worth of bitcoins at $30 would now have about $1,000,000....(even though you guys drove him off this forum)...
And anyone who had bought into bitcoin when it was at a low of some $2 in November 2009 with the same $30,000 would now have $15,000,000.
That's what fact is.
Now here's an OPINION. JREF should accept donations in bitcoin, because they might get more donations that way.
ROFL...
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remirol
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This, from the person who ignored mathematics and statistics in favor of ideology, so much so that he started this thread and then didn't show his face for more than six months out of embarrassment -- that's utterly hilarious.
The crypto and mathematics behind Bitcoin have little to nothing to do with whether it'll ever be used as anything other than a speculator's toy; the only thing they do is make it even practical to use in the first place, as compared to writing numbers on napkins and passing them back and forth.
The facts are:
1. Bitcoin's price far outweighs its intrinsic value, a sure sign of a bubble.
2. Bitcoin's volatility makes it useless as a currency.
It's a fun gamble if you've got a separate bankroll to play in the sandbox. And if you're under a particularly totalitarian/restrictive government, it makes a great way to get money out of the country (cf. China's laws on exporting money). But that's where it ends, and there's quite frankly no reason to believe that 2. will ever change, especially not with people actively targeting the market in order to keep making short-term money.
remirol
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Play money is play. No skin in the game == no relevance.
wrs
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Yeah actually that looks like a little triangle it broke out of on that chart. It's running now. The volatility is insane but the volumes are still low so that is why it's so volatile. What is driving it higher is some heavy buyers that prop it up after it drops. I think that because there are no options and futures, it's harder to push it around with derivatives so given a decently deep pocket, the prices can be sustained if someone is trying to do so.
kevsta
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for analysis purposes? in your first week of looking at it on proper charts ever?
you people
the ignorance about trading systems and the purpose of demo around here is laughable. presumably you rocket scientists all go straight to launch without prototypes, mockups or testing then? lulz. besides my interest at this point is primarily as a comparison with the trading characteristics of Forex with which I am entirely familiar, and BTC, with which I am absolutely not.
In my opinion, given that BTC is globally distributed, and is not a market driven ("made" by "marketmakers" and thus controlled) by 10 or so global Forex banks, and does not yet as far as I am aware suffer from daily BIS or ESF interventions, nor have too many Yen Carry Arb algos or HFT subpenny frontrunning teams at work, that it is quite likely the only real market in the world.
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wrs
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for analysis purposes? in your first week of looking at it on proper charts ever?
you people
besides my interest at this point is primarily as a comparison with the trading characteristics of Forex with which I am entirely familiar, and BTC, with which I am absolutely not.
In my opinion, given that BTC is globally distributed, and is not a market driven ("made" by "marketmakers" and thus controlled) by 10 or so global Forex banks, and does not yet as far as I am aware suffer from daily BIS or ESF interventions, nor have too many Yen Carry Arb algos or HFT subpenny frontrunning teams at work, that it is quite likely the only real market in the world.
Yes and this is why I am looking at it too. It's hard to tell how it's trading. It's uncorrelated and I don't know where the money flows come from and go to. That is one thing you need to understand if you are going to trade something successfully. With BTC that's impossible and also, the volatility is way more than I am used to in anything and that includes 3x leveraged gold stock ETFs. But just because it's a "real" market doesn't mean that it's not subject to undue influence from a big pile of money.
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kevsta
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no, and Im even more lost, given that the system Ive been concentrating on for the last 18 months (on and off) is based entirely around the daily Forex manipulation by the players that are all missing here
the other thing that really strikes me is that the familiar 1-2-3 rhythm that is present in all the other markets is not really the same on BTC.
ps and yes, Average Daily Range indicator is a proper laugh lol. given the razor tight response to ADR on Forex theres definitely something very different going on here.
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mhaze
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No, actually those are not facts. They are opinions. That's what I'm talking about. It may be that you are confused about facts vs opinions.
1. Bitcoin's price far outweighs its intrinsic value(opinion), a sure sign of a bubble(opinion).
2. Bitcoin's volatility (opinion) makes it useless (opinion) as a currency.
You are welcome to your opinions of course. But chart reading magical thinking is, well, ouija board thinking. And we can state some facts about the nature of belief patterns in ouija boards.
kevsta
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2. (a) Bitcoin volatility isn't an opinion, you can measure it, it is immense, this last few weeks at least.
otherwise, correct.
mhaze
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Bah...you need to look at the fundamentals. The problem for guys like you (no offense, I am also trained in regular investment theory and practice, eg Graham, Securities Analysis, etc) is that you try to put a roundular (bitcoin) into square holes (traditional concepts on investments).
Start out by saying "Disruptive technology." Then rethink the whole thing from the start, and figure out what the fundamentals are.
Maybe go around for a week saying nothing to anyone but "Disruptive Technlogy!" and then see if it all makes sense.
mhaze
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K, I'll agree with that for the simple reason that we could say that anything had "volatility", unless it was at absolute zero, in which case it wouldn't be moving around too much, unless of course it was a big rock moving at a high speed toward our planet, in which case we wouldn't have time to discu$@#$*!_*@&
remirol
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What's the intrinsic value of a single Bitcoin again, other than the belief/desire that it will hold a higher value later?
jhunter1163
beer-swilling semiliterate
Bitcoin's intrinsic value is nil. This is a fact. Bitcoin does not physically exist; therefore it has no intrinsic value, nor can it. It has only whatever value is assigned to it by speculators.
Perhaps opinion, but certainly Bitcoin is exhibiting all of the classic signs of a speculative bubble, as discussed earlier in the thread.
Any investment vehicle (or commodity) whose price swings by 30% in the space of a few hours certainly meets any reasonable definition of "volatile".
Bitcoin is, for all practical purposes, not a currency, as virtually no one accepts it directly as payment, alleged pizza and Hulu purchases (through intermediaries who convert BTC into USD) notwithstanding. You can call that opinion if you like, but it's a widely-held one.
kevsta
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given that I already said "disruptive technology" here I will assume "you guys" wasn't addressing me.
I agree with you that many people have preconceptions about the "value" of this that the market may well disagree with. This however applies to ultimate valuation levels, in the meantime it will continue to trade back and forth on its way to the ultimate level or range.
but how many people were gloating about the bubble bursting back at $150?
here we are at 6000% and still looking in decent shape at this point.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/bitcoin-hedge-fund-posts-staggering-return/
mhaze
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Battle for $1000 back on. I took a pop at a very basic (retail) downtrend breakout trade on demo.
And re T/A, if it could possibly work anywhere, it is here, I have an inkling this might be much easier than Forex.
The CHART is my master.
I will not deviate from the LINE.
I will follow it where it goes.
I will hindcast where it went.
And though it take me to bankrupcy and ruin
I shall instantly have a new chart line to explain.
And lecture on, a pious and faithful Chart Reader.
The ascending tops they comfort me.
With advancing volume thy market thrusts.
The ascending triangle is my joy.
The peak to valley drawdown I fear.
Yea, though I see the bearish homing pigeons in flight
I fear no evil from the dark cloud cover nor dojis nor dragonflies.
The chartist fears nought, steadied by his cup and handle, his head and shoulders, and his gravestone dojis.
All Hail The Chart!
mhaze
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Well...YAH...but like....YOU DIDN'T SUGGEST saying it over and over for a week, did you?
LOL.....
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